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I went with the April $165 puts :D
Bought RIMM $70 puts @ $1.7, sold $1.3 this am
At least they are only worth $0.9 now :D
Screw it: VIX $19 calls / SPY $114 puts / DIA $105 puts
**At least I cannot be screwed by upgrades**
RIMM upgraded...
RIMM Charts
I really don't care what the markets do tomorrow, just want RIMM to go down! I wouldn't want to be long RIMM right now but then again it is still risky to be short...I got puts on 2 signals:
1) Fall through 200MA
2) Down over 1/2% with the DOW up over 100 points
Also see RSIs, fall through middle bollie, MACD bear cross, CCIs pointed down through 0 line, Slow STO pointed down through 50 line...
60-min (not sure if I'm doing these H&S patterns right, new to drawing/spotting them):
$RUT Chart
Hi Tech, you can just right-click and select copy image location and then paste it ... highlight .... and select image on the left...and the chart will show up. Cool thing is it will remain live intraday on every reload.
<<<Remove asterisks>>>
[*img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUT&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p80123014870&r=9309[*/img]
Chart looks VERY toppy to me, although a down day recently has been a very rare occassion....3 down days out of the last 20...
$RUT up 14.73% in last 20 days.....From a 580.49 low to a 666.02 high......14.73% in 20 days = 0.73% avg. gain per day over last 20 sessions!
Leaving U.S. government-controlled AIG owning roughly a fifth of MetLife
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!
AIG Will Sell Alico Unit to MetLife
American International Group Inc. and MetLife Inc. were putting finishing touches Sunday on a widely anticipated, $15.5 billion deal for AIG's second-largest foreign life-insurance business, people familiar with the matter said. The complicated deal would leave U.S. government-controlled AIG owning roughly a fifth of MetLife, the nation's No. 1 seller of life insurance.
The two companies are preparing to announce Monday morning that AIG has agreed to sell American Life Insurance Co., better known as Alico, for $6.8 billion in cash and $8.7 billion in MetLife equity, including common stock and convertible preferred securities, according to people familiar with the matter.
Under the deal, AIG would effectively get a stake of about 20% in MetLife, the people said. That makes AIG, which is nearly 80% owned by the U.S. government, the second-largest shareholder of MetLife, which made it through the financial crisis largely unscathed. A trust currently holds roughly 28% of MetLife's shares on behalf of its insurance policy holders. The common shares to be owned by AIG would represent about 14% of MetLife, and AIG could sell the preferred securities before they are converted into common equity.
AIG's shares in MetLife will come with voting restrictions, preventing it from influencing MetLife's operations and business decisions. But AIG will be exposed to MetLife's fortunes over at least the next nine months to two-and-a-half years, the minimum period for which it has to hold on to the shares. How MetLife's stock performs will determine the value AIG can fetch when it decides to sell off its stake for cash.
MetLife didn't receive government money during the financial crisis, and it competes head to head with AIG's U.S. life-insurance and retirement-services business in several areas, such as fixed and variable annuities and life-insurance policies that are sold to individuals. MetLife will use some of its existing cash and issue new equity and debt securities to help finance the cash portion of its Alico purchase. MetLife expects the deal to boost its earnings by 45 cents to 55 cents per share by 2011, according to people familiar with the matter. Currently, analysts are estimating MetLife's operating earnings at $4.89 in 2011.
AIG Chief Executive Robert Benmosche, who was previously MetLife's CEO and remains a shareholder, wasn't involved in the deal talks, which were handled by a special committee within AIG.
With the Alico pact, and one inked a week ago to sell its Asian life-insurer unit, American International Assurance Ltd., to Prudential PLC for $35.5 billion, AIG now expects to return $32 billion in cash to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the coming months, if both deals close as scheduled by year-end.
Another $19 billion is likely to be returned over the next few years when AIG's large stakes in Prudential and MetLife are sold.
Both Prudential and MetLife decided against all-cash deals for AIA and Alico respectively because they were concerned about the impact on their credit ratings and stock prices, said people who worked on the two deals. Executives of both companies quickly realized that their deals with AIG would have to include the rival insurer—and by extension the federal government—becoming a sizable shareholder, the people added. AIG is getting a roughly 11% stake in the U.K.'s Prudential, which isn't linked to Prudential Financial Inc. in the U.S.
The New York Fed, which rescued AIG from bankruptcy in the fall of 2008, has so far spent more than $83 billion supporting the insurance giant, of which $50 billion is to be repaid through AIG asset sales. The other $33 billion is supposed to be recouped from mortgage-linked securities previously held or insured by AIG that are now on the New York Fed's balance sheet.
With AIG now on a path to repayment of its secured loan from the New York Fed in full, government officials and analysts are beginning to contemplate what the U.S. exit strategy from AIG could look like and how it would take shape in the coming years.
The Treasury has also pumped $47 billion into AIG via its Troubled Asset Relief Program, and currently holds its investment in the form of preferred shares. With AIA and Alico sold, AIG's CEO, Mr. Benmosche, has said AIG plans to keep its global property- and casualty-insurance business as well as its domestic life-insurance business at its core. It expects to sell off other assets, such as pieces of its aircraft-leasing firm International Lease Finance Corp., and last week it announced the sale of its remaining stake in reinsurer Transatlantic Holdings. But proceeds from these will be much smaller than what AIA and Alico are fetching.
One idea being mulled by government officials and AIG insiders would involve the Treasury gradually converting small portions of its AIG preferred shares into common shares that they can sell through stock offerings to investors, according to people familiar with the matter. Another alternative is for AIG to issue new shares to the public and use the proceeds to redeem the preferred shares.
Such a "recapitalization" of AIG's balance sheet would have to occur over a period of several years, given that Treasury's $47 billion in preferred shares dwarfs AIG's stock-market capitalization of about $3.8 billion. When most of the taxpayer assistance to AIG is repaid, the government might then reduce its stake in the company, according to people familiar with the matter, who added there isn't a definite exit plan in place yet.
MetLife was advised on the Alico purchase by Credit Suisse Group, Barclays Capital, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, HSBC Holdings PLC and Deutsche Bank AG. AIG's advisers included Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Blackstone Group LP. Morgan Stanley advised the New York Fed, which will get the first $9 billion in cash proceeds from the Alico sale.
Back in March 2009, when AIG incurred a record $99.3 billion annual loss for 2008 and it was being offered only fire-sale prices for its assets, the New York Fed made a big bet that market conditions would improve enough to enable AIG's two large foreign insurance businesses to be sold or spun off via initial public offerings sometime in 2010.
To help ease AIG's debt burden last year, the regional Fed bank forgave a $25 billion portion of its loan to AIG and acquired preferred equity in Alico and AIA, its two crown-jewel assets.
The New York Fed is now in line to receive the first $9 billion in cash proceeds from the sale of Alico and $16 billion from the AIA sale when both deals close.
AIG will also be able to reduce some of its outstanding $25.1 billion Fed debt with additional cash from the AIA sale. The rest is to be paid down before the credit facility expires in September 2013, as AIG sells off its stakes in Prudential and MetLife.
AIG, meanwhile, needs to overcome several hurdles before it can operate on its own without financial support from the government. For example, since the crisis AIG and its subsidiaries haven't been able to issue unsecured bonds to fund themselves or refinance maturing debt. Two of its units, ILFC and consumer lender American General Finance, are now trying to work out their funding challenges by issuing new long-term debt secured by assets such as aircraft leases and home loans.
For AIG to realize its plan of repaying taxpayers and emerging from government ownership, "the markets need to remain more or less stable to positive over a sustained period of time," wrote David Havens, a managing director at Nomura Securities, in a note last week.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704706304575107903348447626.html?mod=WSJ_Deals_LeadStory
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$VIX 34x100 bull cross on the way
Just noticed that the $VIX, although not quite there yet, is .15 from a bull cross.
$VIX: 17.42
34: 21.96 (headed slightly up)
100: 22.09 (headed down)
34 crosses above the 100 = bullish
I know the markets are rigged, but that would be crazy if the NASDAQ got a double top and the $VIX a double bottom....
The NASDAQ has many times over the years reversed or found support around the area we are trading at right now...here is a 13 year weekly:
$COMPQ has a perfect double top IF....
(which probably won't happen)...There is some profit taking on Monday and we never quite break today's high....This scenario is highly unlikely but the index is up over 10% in the last 4 weeks.....only seeing 6 red candles since the 2100 low was put in 20 candles ago...
Looking back, 2100 was such a nice round number for the NASDAQ to bounce off of!
2100 to 2327 = 10.8% in 20 sessions = +0.54% per session average last 20 days!!
On the bear side of the coin here is what I see:
1) Possible (but unlikely) double top
2) Top bollie (2330 resistance)
3) Near channel resistance
4) Gaps to fill
5) Assuming we don't gap up on Monday and the markets even close slightly red there is an automatic bearish harami candle pattern
**I only hold one position right now which is RIMM puts**
$INDU Daily: bearish 100 x 34 MA cross
Only 2 bearish items that I can "locate", lol...
1: Resistance at 10,600 at the highest volume day of the year (currently only 34 points from 10,600 btw...)
2: The 100 MA crossed above the 34 MA!
The last time the $INDU got a 100 X 34 MA bear cross was actually a really good time to jump out of the market, summer 2008, about 2 months before the Lehman Bankruptcy......Then at the 34 X 100 MA bull cross it was a great time to get back in (early May).....Now finally after nearly a year we are getting a 100 X 34 bear cross again.....??? Hmmmmm..........
$INDU Daily: bearish 100 x 34 MA cross
Only 2 bearish items that I can "locate", lol...
1: Resistance at 10,600 at the highest volume day of the year (currently only 34 points from 10,600 btw...)
2: The 100 MA crossed above the 34 MA!
The last time the $INDU got a 100 X 34 MA bear cross was actually a really good time to jump out of the market, summer 2008, about 2 months before the Lehman Bankruptcy......Then at the 34 X 100 MA bull cross it was a great time to get back in (early May).....Now finally after nearly a year we are getting a 100 X 34 bear cross again.....??? Hmmmmm..........
93 of NASDAQ 100 Index GREEN
7 RED
RIMM, QCOM, MSFT, BIDU, ATVI, COST, VRTX
QCOM biggest loser of the index -1.35%
RIMM #2 with -0.64%
EDIT: BIDU just stole the #2 spot, BIDU -0.69%....RIMM -0.59%
How do you like RIMM up here?
Here's my thoughts:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=47439094
RIMM March/April/May/June/July PUTS!!
LoL...I think RIMM is in some trouble...can't even remain green with the Dow up 80 points....Flirting with the 200MA @ $69.89...Already broke below it in the am ($69.4 lod) but fought back to hit a hod of $70.44....back down slightly below $70 right now, last $69.92
Here is an article on Re-Shorts in Motion (it's from 2/25/10):
LINK
The chart of RIMM shows a bearish formation with this multi month rising wedges. Every rally is met with huge selling pressure. I expect RIMM to break that wedge on the downside with a measured target of $50 within 3 months.
$SPX 60-Min
I wish you were right but I HIGHLY doubt it. The Dow looks like it will move up 2000 points (exaggerating) in the next month.
I only have one position but it is short...I'd like to see a pullback but not looking good. I guess tomorrow is judgment day w/ the unemployment and payrolls.
Not very familiar w/ the H&S pattern but here is what I have:
RIMM: Re-Shorts in Motion?
Just thought this was a funny article (title)...
2/25/2010
RIMM : Re-shorts in Motion!
The chart of RIMM shows a bearish formation with this multi month rising wedges. Every rally is met with huge selling pressure. I expect RIMM to break that wedge on the downside with a measured target of $50 within 3 months.
200MA @ $69.91....last $70.15...I think the QQQQs are due for a pullback btw..
Delayed reaction on the way Dow +1 point
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
You in?
BIDU -$7 Pre-market on UBS downgrade
Baidu downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Target $567. :theflyonthewall.com
Note last 2 candles (bearish engulfing)
Definition:
The Bearish Three Outside Down Pattern is another name for the Confirmed Bearish Engulfing Pattern. The third day confirms the bearish trend reversal.
Recognition Criteria:
1. Market is characterized by uptrend.
2. We see a Bearish Engulfing Pattern in the first two days.
3. Then we see a black candlestick on the third day with a lower close than the second day.
Explanation:
The first two days forms a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, and the third day confirms the reversal suggested by the Bearish Engulfing Pattern since it is a black candlestick closing with a new low for the three days.
Important Factors:
The reliability of this pattern is very high, but still a confirmation in the form of a black candlestick with a lower close or a gap-down is suggested.
Thoughts on X Elliott Wave Chart
Hi BT, was wondering if the chart below fits the description of Elliott Wave Theory? I have never done E-Theory before. Not sure I even understand it at all. All I did is look at the stockcharts.com E-wave description and matched it onto the X chart.
Here is the chart I based my drawing on, from StockCharts.com:
Here is the X chart:
Obviously way too soon to say X will go down the C wave as the $56.33 high was just put in today (closed $55.30).
What do you think?
Thank you in advance...
X Elliott Wave Chart
Hi Tech, was wondering if the chart below fits the description of Elliott Wave Theory? I have never done E-Theory before. Not sure I even understand it at all. All I did is look at the stockcharts.com E-wave description and matched it onto the X chart.
Here is the chart I based my drawing on, from StockCharts.com:
Here is the X chart:
Obviously way too soon to say X will go down the C wave as the $56.33 high was just put in today (closed $55.30).
What do you think?
Thank you in advance...
Tried to get back in at $1.6
Realized it wasn't going to fill, upped it to $1.63....No fill.
Oh well X has tanked $1 from the hod, I'm also in BIDU puts....I think at least for the next week or two that today's $524.79 high is in...
And BIDU was weak while the market was strong all day....Bearish engulfing too...Looks to be coming out of oversold:
TY, out $1.7
will get back in at $1.5-$1.6 if possible