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Webster,
any referrals in the southern California area?
Kiwi,
clearly we all want a positive clinically proven result with reduce-it. But I still maintain that many people will continue with Vascepa even if the trial fails ...STS seems to agree.
But you argue that V won't be widely prescribed. Perhaps you're right. But what will happen to Lovaza prescriptions? Will the entire category disappear with a failed Reduce-it trial?
Unless something better comes along I suspect that it will be difficult for you to give up Vascepa, something that is not harming you and is almost certainly helpful you in some way.
Kiwi,
why would you keep taking Vascepa?
Your comment to the Freak provides the answer. You stopped Niacin because the harm exceeds the benefit. I believe that a great many (perhaps not you) will continue taking Vascepa even upon a failed Reduce-it trial because of the belief that the benefit exceeds the harm.
If Reduce-it Fails
Are you telling me that you will immediately stop taking V in order to save $5/day? My guess is that you will think about it but continue.
Will,
what's the angle?
Rachel Behrman / Sherman is presumably married to one of the partners of Behrman Capital, a $3 bil private equity firm with investments in Atherotech. A PE firm is considered a hedge fund but generally they don't trade like many hedge funds, go short, etc. I certainly don't see them as the put buyer before Adcom.
And what's the connection between the lab testing firm and Amarin besides the obvious that they provide lipid test results. Where's the conspiracy?
thanks.. fyi my doc won't prescribe Vascepa until I go back on statins.
are you also taking any statins?
got it, thanks very much.
I suspect that there is some value to the patents even if reduce it fails. Big Pharma would certainly pay them something for the patents.
also, it sounds like the Pharmakon loan is senior to the Irish debt. Otherwise it all goes to the Irish upon BK.
hope you all are right about an early reduce it success. It seems obvious but I'm somehow worried about early enrollments and the change to patients with higher TGs.
Kiwi,
please provide a refresher for me as I've been out of touch for a while. Amarin recently renegotiated a convertible bond and substantially reduced the conversion price from over $8 to just over $2. Was this not the Pharmakon loan? If not, who owns this paper? If yes, then Pharmakon is certainly rewarded by an potential buyout in excess of the conversion price.
Does anyone remember who on the panel predicted that Reduce-it
would fail? He was unimpressed with the improvement in lipids from baseline and thought results were not robust enough to prevent CVD events?
who was this guy?
thanks, I accept that answer.
Bio, how do you know that the FDA has not contacted the company about the Anchor SPA? Are you assuming this because it would be a material event that JZ would disclose?
I for one do not necessarily believe that JZ would make such disclosure despite his obligation to do so. Perhaps there has been more communication between the FDA and AMRN that we know.
Will, you're absolutely correct about the placebo effect being disclosed in Marine. I was simply unaware.
Will,
thanks for your reply. I am aware of previous discussions about mineral oil but was still very surprised to see the magnitude of the placebo effect.
Were you at all surprised, or has this been adequately disclosed to your satisfaction....in Marine or anywhere? Btw, like others, I'm comfortable that V demonstrates efficacy from baseline but still didn't like the feeling I had when I saw the mineral oil results.
fwiw, I'm very very long and thinking about adding.
My two cents
I always wondered why the company was so willing to do a secondary at $5.60 when they previously had been adverse to selling stock at higher levels, and chosen debt instead. Now we know...they heard of changes in the sNDA and needed to shore up their capital just in case.
I always wondered why there was no insider buying...not sure, but this was also have been the reason.
Finally, I always wondered why it would rake several months to prepare for the Adcom if it was going to be such a slam dunk. I understand the importance of the meeting, and I'm glad they're taking it very seriously, but I think they were also telegraphing their concern.
Btw, I'm feeling misled that the company never (to my knowledge) the placebo effect. Every comparison to placebo is potentially misleading yet the company continued to make these comparisons.
Still...I strongly believe there will be a positive vote on Wednesday CONDITIONAL on Reduce It. FDA will similarly approve the indication.
thanks, I was hoping that you would say exactly that.
btw, a public thanks to all of the very smart contributors on this board.
Thanks JL...
I appreciate the response.
Last question. I have lower back pain(mild to moderate degenerative discs). I take Excedrin daily for the pain although I shouldn't complain because it could be much worse. I am sure that there are millions of guys with degenerative disc.
Occasionally when I take PT the therapist would comment about inflammation. Do I take your comments to suggest that V would be unlikely to help more than NSAIDS since this might be considered a traumatic injury?
the question is still does EPA has a positive affect upon arthritis...osteoarthritis and or rheumatoid arthritis?
ok, thanks
how about RA?
JL,
I am a complete novice when it comes to fully understanding the role of inflammation in our bodies....but I am learning. And I own a ton of shares.
That said, when I discuss EPA with friends and colleagues their minds immediately go to arthritis. I explain that arthritis is an autoimmune disease and may or may not be a beneficiary of concentrated forms of EPA.
So please help in this discussion about arthritis.
thanks
sorry, didn't see it. thank you
fyi. I trade at one of the major wire houses. Stocks are fully marginable above $5, lose some marginability (i.e release) between $2.50 and $5.00 and are not marginable below $2.50
fyi. you can easily short a stock under $5. No issues. In fact you can easily short a stock at 50 cents.
Is JZ Bluffing?
Reliant launches Omacor in 2004. They file to go public and instead sell to GSK in 2007. I think it's logical to assume that they negotiated for a private sale, JZ wasn't able to get his price, so they filed to go public. Essentially he called GSK's bluff (and probably others).
Maybe he's doing it again. He can't get his price for a partnership so he files to raise money. Maybe the financing doesn't get done and someone comes in with better terms after all.
Bio, STS...LINK http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/amrn/institutional-holdings
available to anyone...not proprietary to Etrade.
Btw, these I believe are 13F filers
STS, Employee stock options of course DO have an expiration date.
Joe Z exercised his 10,000 options 6.5 years prior to expiration.
So think about it...why would he do this?
fyi, Ford recognizes revenues as soon as the vehicle leaves the factory...known as factory releases. It's NOT when the vehicle is actually sold from the dealer lot. That's one of the reasons why the industry monitors dealer inventory so closely (i.e days supply)
Question to the Board
Vascepa vs Dietary Supplements.
If we grant Vascepa a 10 (scale 1 to 10) for efficacy vs side effects, how would anyone rate the supplements in aggregate?
Or how about PlusEPA for example?
JL,
Fwiw, I believe ONLY Abingworth would have known the details of the loan before it was made. And I seriously doubt many of the institutions know all of the details, even now after the loan was made.
Also, I agree with Kay. It's another sign that mgmt is going for a buyout reasonably soon. I, of course, knew none of the particulars of the loan but gave extra credence to the buyout notion as soon as they announced it.
Finally, I have no problems with the concept of the loan vs the alternative of a dilutive offering. The terms may seem onerous but people with the money usually call the shots.
you certainly can short penny stocks on US exchanges through major brokerage firms. The collateral requirement may far exceed the price of the stock, but it can easily be done.
You DO NOT need to execute on foreign exchanges.
That's ridiculous
yes, I know. That's why it's particularly odd. Unless, as others have suggested, PN was either doing a favor for someone or is testing the waters for something bigger.
I tend to agree that PN is over his head. He may be well educated but he's probably no match for street-wise traders.
My bet is that he's also probably too cocky to seek advice so
I expect more errors.
fwiw, many years ago I knew someone at a small hedge fund that boasted that he would lend a few million quickly to almost any public company. He'd put on a short, buy it at a discount, and receive warrant coverage.
There were no secrets here. He told the company what he was doing and they didn't care because they wanted the cash quickly.
Other businesses would call this hard money lending.
ok, got it.
Nice plan particularly since the news of the dilutive placement itself drives down the stock price to enable you to cover.
yes,makes sense. But an early warrant exercise is an expensive way to go because you lose the time value of the warrants. I think these are 5 year wts.?
ERHE is an unusual company to be sure, but private placement investors are often given business plans or at a minimum have access to management prior to investing. It's not fair to generalize but from my experience there are usually good things that happen after placements, and that the enticement to buy is not just a lower price. There's usually a catalyst to follow.
ok thanks. That's a very fair point.
btw, the reason I mentioned it is that in real life, when an investor has a large position in a small stock like this, they soemtimes get to know management fairly well. (I understand that this management may be an axception)
So with an established relationship, it's easier for the company to approach an existing investor for additional funding rather than going to find a new one. Any investor would obviously do as I suggested if approached.
How about if the fund(s) already owned the stock, sold it at higher levels knowing they could re-enter at 22 cents with warrants?
No shorting necessary here.
You're probably right about it being a moot point if the shares were not restricted, BUT you're assuming that the shares (even if they're freely traded) can be delivered on time. It's certainly possible and I've done deals with companies that have been quick to deliver.
Otherwise the investor could either have sold short perhaps for a few days, or sold-not-long (essentially a promise to deliver by settlement date).
So did the investor simply hedge, or sell the long position in order to simply keep the free warrants. Or as TOB suggests, keep all positions being the risk/reward is favorable. Perhaps they already owned the stock, sold what they owned when they agreed to buy shares in the placement, and reloaded at 22 cents without needing to sell any more shares. That's an obvious trade that's most plausible to me.
Yup, no problem with your thinking.
Except, often the subscription docs to the PPM will specifically preclude you from shorting for some time period. I'm not sure how the company could police this but it's a common clause.
I came in late to your discussion with Krom but I think his strategy was to be long restricted shares / short unrestricted shares. He'd cover the short when the restriction on the long shares is lifted and the trade is over.
That's ok. You can do this trade. The biggest risk is the ability to maintain the short (not get bought in).
If that's what you said, it's my mistake.