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Yes, I got long right around these levels a couple weeks ago.
"Adaware seems to work well, also. JMHO."
Hey Burkmere, how are you?
Just so you know, I already had Adaware on my computer since the Spybot program gave me a message that I have Adaware and they may not be compatible.
So Adaware wasn't fixing my problem or I wasn't using it correctly. I probably wasn't using Adaware correctly because according to CNET downloads, it's great and has twice as many downloads as SPYBOT.
OT: Computer Slow? Both my laptop and Pentium 4 desktop with Windows XP became unbelievably slow over the last couple of months. I checked my windows task manager and couldn't believe all the crap I had running! I had no idea what most of it was. And I have all the latest virus protection software so didn't think it could be a virus. So my brother (who knows a lot more about PCs than I do) told me to download a free program called SPYBOT Search and Destroy. I downloaded it 2 days ago and launched the Search and Destroy function and it found and destroyed OVER 100 BAD PROGRAMS on both of my PCs. I have been running now for 2 days since and both of my computers FLY once again - literally a more than 200% improvement in wait time on the simplest of tasks. I must have been so bogged down with all that crap spyware over the years that things became super slow. I was afraid that I may lose some things that I need but so far in 2 days everything seems to work great. I have no idea what other spyware programs are out there but this one certainly worked great (so far) and it was FREE which is always nice. It also allowed me to IMMUNIZE MY COMPUTER against 12,000+ other pieces of spyware and will alert me when any new spyware programs are added to the software. Also, while I may sound like a walking advertisement for SPYBOT I have no connection whatsoever with the company.
Wild moves in the futures, huh? Up 10, down 2, up 1..
Could KLAC guidance have that much impact?
Looks like 23 minutes was all we needed to get the DOW green from my last post...
Plenty of time to still get the DOW green today...
1988 may have been the low to buy.
Have you sold your triple (?) position in the BU$$?
Hobie, don't think these companies are a good sampling of earnings season. They just are not noteworthy and are probably losing marketshare to the big guys. Small tech is in trouble unless it is really in a hot new space - i.e. EPNY in trouble.
If we don't get any noteworthy warnings in the next day or two, I'd expect a very strong earnings season and most probabaly a stronger market to go with it...
Don't do it GF. Unless you want to see that 200K disappear real quick. It's too risky. Get another job and do some paper trading in your spare time to measure your actual results as compared to the market. Paper trading is not using your actual money but pretending you are trading. Do this for 6 months and be accurate with your recording of data. If you outperform the market maybe you can consider daytrading. If you don't, just enjoy your new job and make extra income and put a percent (70??) of your $200K in some index related mutual funds.
that would be my bet Canny - this jobs news is really strong - they're going to get a big run from this into earnings season.
I would have to think 1940 is almost off the table in the next two trading days. That's 90 points down from here into earnings season.
So far, as I expected, we not only got the good jobs report but they are buying it as very positive far outweighing the downside effects of higher interest rates.
As far as earnings season goes, it looks like all the "good companies" are continuing to overachieve this quarter whereas the bad news is coming from former leaders that may be going to laggard positions: SY, SEBL, QLGC, SUNW, VRTS. All these companies had issues brewing over the past 6 months and their rumors or news is not very surprising.
If the "good companies" start to falter, it's time to book profits but so far the prudent path is to "ride the spring rally."
OT: Just locked in a refi rate last night and rates are up a ful 1/4 of a percent this morning.
This may be the end of super cheap refinancing as well...
Well, looks like those turnips weren't far off after all
Thought they would close above 2003 today for sure but looks like they just tagged it to say Hi and retreat. Will be interesting to see what the rest of week brings.
OK, we're up for the year on the NAZ if this holds. I mentioned this yesterday and despite the disappointing econ news today, it seems there wasn't going to be much keeping us from getting positive for the quarter.
April 1 and beyond is another story but with earnings just around the corner, I think the spring rally is on.
Also think QLGC news is QLGC specific and thought they showed signs of faltering last quarter as well.
They're going for green ladies and gentlemen. 7 more points on the NAZ gets us positive for the year (2004 in points and year). Let's see if they take us there.
Seems like Equity P/C may be losing some of its reliability. Kind of like Max Pain. Not only does everyone always disagree on what the real Max Pain numbers are, but it seems to be more wrong than right lately.
A good jobs report and equities fly IMO. Unfortunately, I also believe it puts a nail in Kerry's coffin because that is his whole platform. If we get 200K jobs, I'm not sure how Kerry changes his attack on Bush.
Yup, they teased us all day with a possible break down only to lure more in and ride up into the end of day and put us just over 2000. This seems to be what they did last March when we had a local low and then just ran, and ran, and ran.
On 12/31/03 we closed at 2003.37. I have a tough time seeing us close lower than that tomorrow. I think the 1940 window is disappearing quickly but I won't be surprised to see the turnips get it either!
I think the real start of your spring rally was right after we got the multiple days of P/C over 1 and then declined to just under 1900.
Covered almost all shorts and went long a selective basket of stocks this morning with more powder if we do indeed get to 1940. It's looking more and more like the change in trend has started and we may be in store for this spring rally:
- Earnings start next week and I've seen very few preannouncements.
- Election year is going to be tough to stifle.
- Jobs report last 2 months was pitiful. May be nowhere to go but up this month. Estimate is 120K jobs. If we get even half of that the spin will be positive enough for a big jump. I don't buy the theory that a good jobs report will cause the market to falter because of higher interest rates.
- Oil already very high, probably won't go much higher.
- Had the decent 10% correction off the highs and had many components of a decent low albeit not perfect.
- End of quarter markup.
Neutral may be the correct call here, but I think the spring rally is starting soon if not already.
Unfortunately, Georgie Boy has many in this nation believing that we may be "waking up and reciting the Muslim national anthem." And when it comes time to attack Iran or North Korea or whoever else next, he will have us believing he again just saved the US from the next apocalypse.
I'll make sure I get my white robe and hood cleaned in preparation for the celebration.
Seriously though, when you are a superpower, it really does pay to be humble, and right now we're bumping up against those limits and boundaries. In the long run it will do this great country a disservice.
Good, we are due for some humble pie. In fact, our arrogance displayed in many world matters, not just Iraq, is due for some serious fine tuning. We need to get along with the rest of the world despite some viewpoints of us being the only super power in the world and loving it.
Sounds like Microsoft TJ. Bill Gates took lots of ideas from others and just out-executed everyone else to become the richest man in the world.
Don't think so. America still pumps tons of dollars into R&D and continues to lead in the idea generation department. As far as software is concerned it is definitely becoming a mature industry and that's probably a good thing. Yes, it will be very difficult for a 25 year old with a good head on his or her shoulders to become a multimillionaire through software stock options like they were doing hand over fist in the late 90s. But that was an aberration that we became used to and thought it would be the norm. We're still working off the excesses of that era.
And I'm not pushing for the extinction of any of these software jobs. All I'm saying is may the best team win and if we're not the best team right now, retool to figure out how we can be the best team again. How can we provide a better service at the same or lower costs? I don't have a silver bullet for that but have thought about a few different things.
Good points Webster but I will conjecture that our standard of living is too high in the US and we need to gat back to reality with other nations. We are a nation of "fat cats."
The guy who fills my propane tanks for my gas grill at the local Hertz 4 Rents owns 3 cars, one being an Expedition. He's a few teeth short of a complete set and is in debt on all three cars but his wife really wanted the Expedition which is a $40K retail vehicle. Since Ford owns Hertz, he gets a good deal on the products.
Our government is encouraging it's citizens to be in debt over their head with the misplaced idea that it is going to save the economy. With cheap home loans, everyone is refinincing and many getting ARMs or interest only loans. In fact most loan companies that call me want to know "how much additional money I want to take out of my house" and if the answer is none, they are really not interested in the business. When rates turn up, there is going to be one big bursting of a bubble.
Fed, I just think outsourcing is a natural progression of a Global Economy and it's a good thing. Keep in mind it's still a very small percentage of overall jobs and you're right the pendulum probabaly will swing too much in the outsourcing direction and there will be failures before a happy medium is reached.
Outsourcing - I'm not sure why there's this big push to stop outsourcing and everyone thinks outsourcing is "unpatriotic."
It's a Global Economy and it's very healthy. Besides, maybe it will be a wake-up call for the lazy american that has developed this sense of entitlement through the roaring 90s. This won't be a popular thought but I believe many americans have completely forgotten what hard work is all about.
For years, we have been outsourcing manufacturing to Asia because they can build the same widget for far less cost and that was all part of the "Global Economy." Now we're getting similar value from India and other places (in services) and it's all of a sudden considered "unpatriotic." We should change our focus to working to become competitive with these offerings. I am a big fan of "may the best team win" and if we're not currently the best team at a certain task than we don't deserve to win and need to go retool to become the best team again. No need to blame others for our own internal inadequacies.
Joe, sounds like you're getting good value from India. This is a great topic and you both have very good points. I have been in enterprise software for years (last 10 or so at the executive level) and have outsourced work to India for at least the last 10 years. My last software company had around 30% of all R&D coming from India and I agree with TJs comment that the "well designed specs" get great turnaround in India but the "just run with it" US philosophy is hard to implement in India.
However, India has very little of the US "entitlement" attitude and they are hard workers. Your local US guy probably has better things to do or feels your work isn't that important and sounds like firing him is the right thing.
Wonder if the board cop Alex G is recording some more correct Bearmove calls? You also seemed to cover your shorts a bunch lower than where we are now if I remember correctly.
Are you clown long now or still adding to your positions?
Great calls all the way around.
On the long or short side pants?
Is it just me or does Zeev seem to disappear at the worst times?
Well, I think I'm going to wait for the fat lady to sing either way. If we go above 1983, I cover shorts, if we go to 1887 or below, I cover shorts. The question is do I add to long positions at either juncture?
In Zeev we Trust!
Steve from AJ's thread got his Close on the Highs (COTH) indicator this morning so this could be a straight walk up although I know Zeev didn't think we would get much above 1940 before resuming the "regularly scheduled program."
The MM goal is always to fool the most fools...
Since Maginot line is 1983, watch the MMs take us just above 2000 and then back down under 1900 for the real low...
... or just blow through 2000 on the way to 2390 while everyone's waiting for the "low."
Maginot line is 1983 I believe.
aj, what do you make of the divergence between the Nikkei and the DOW right now? Japan has had recent good news with trade surplus, yen, consumer confidence, etc. but this recent divergence appears to bigger than I have seen in a good year or so.
Seems the Nikkei usually corrects with the US but this can go on for a long time.
Believe me, I'm not a fan of MU - just don't want us to get too crazy here.
Shoreco, MU missed by 1% on Rev, not 10%. Certainly not horrible but runup in stock over past year may have better earnings priced in.
Just listening to the call and some of the analysts are asking the depreciation question and not sure it was fully addressed by MU but they said they predict depreciation for the next 2 quarters will be around $300 - $315M per quarter so may be continue to show light depreciation relative to revenue going forward which could indeed be game playing.
Not really my space so can't go too deep here.
Zeev, MU did mention this quarter was a 13 week quarter vs. last quarter being a 14 week quarter accounting for the lower sales but essentially flat sequentially.
I don't think these guys give guidance.
MU misses on revenues at $991M vs. estimate of $1.01B but beats on EPS (loss of 4 cents vs. expected loss of 7 cents).
Stock down slightly in after hours.
Let's see what guidance brings.
Langostino, are you still really trying to make the argument that RYVYX is grossly mismanaged and doesn't do what is says it does which is track 200% of the NDX performance?
I've corrected you once and it's plain to see for any and all. Perhaps you can apologize to Train Guy and Mikemargin for your incorrect analysis and hostile tone?
And by the way, I own RYVNX but all the funds come in the same Annual Report. I'm thinking of putting some funds in RYVYX soon though.