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Good to see market reaction to this PR. This PR is definitely a great positive for our Nanoviricide development. Without any question it will lead to new patents, which will in turn lead to longer exclusivity of this technology for us.
What I am very happy about is the positive reaction that the market is showing to this PR. It shows that the market is showing continuing interest in our stock. I am always saddened when market participants give up small biotech stocks for dead in the expectation that these guys will spend themselves to bankruptcy. That is clearly not true for our stock as shown by the very good price appreciation today.
Seeker
Bunny,
Which pumped microcaps are you referring to? If it is ARNA, VVUS etc, it would be great if you could post the insider events. I think that price appreciation in those stocks is happening so rapidly that it is impossible to find out insider events. It may be better to say what you really mean, not just point.
Seeker
Real reason for our stock being up
Please look at the following article. I think informed investors recognize that our cides are a breakthrough drug and so they will qualify for accelerated approval. That is why the stock is up so strongly. I e-mail Dr. Seymour this article although I suspect he must have seen it.
Seeker
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/09/drugs-breakthrough-idUSL1E8G8A8920120509?type=companyNews&feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43
U.S. may speed approval of 'breakthrough' drugs
Companies may do shorter, fewer trials for approval
* Proposal likely to pass as part of FDA user fee bill
By Anna Yukhananov
WASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) - Experimental drugs that show a big effect early in development for treating serious or life-threatening diseases would get a faster and cheaper path to U.S. approval, under a proposal likely to become law this year.
U.S. drug regulators would be able to label such treatments "breakthrough" therapies, and work with companies to speed up clinical trials, for example by testing the drugs for a shorter time or enrolling fewer patients.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has said it supports the proposal, which is included in both versions of an FDA "must-pass" funding bill currently working its way through Congress and set to be passed by the end of the summer.
The plan fits with President Barack Obama's aim to foster innovation as a means of spurring job creation, and may pacify some critics who say the FDA lags European countries in approving new medicines or medical devices.
Dr. Janet Woodcock, head of the FDA's drugs center, has said the FDA needs more flexibility to bypass "business as usual" when it sees unexpected effects, or when a new medicine can greatly help patients.
"What happens when you have a breakthrough drug that shows an effect that's never been seen before?" she told reporters in March, discussing the proposal.
"If we'd done business as usual during the AIDS epidemic, we would have never controlled that epidemic," Woodcock said.
During a spike in new cases of AIDS in the early 1990s, the FDA created an "accelerated approval" process to get new AIDS drugs to the market more quickly by allowing companies to show indirect measures of how the drug helped people.
Jeff Allen, executive director of Friends of Cancer Research, said the time was right for another avenue to speed innovative treatments to patients.
Allen said new understanding of human biology and of diseases meant companies could create more effective drugs, but with fewer side effects, because they would be more targeted to specific patients or disease types.
He said a good example was Roche Holding AG's skin cancer drug Zelboraf, approved last year; people taking the pill were 63 percent less likely to die from melanoma than people on standard chemotherapy.
There was also Pfizer Inc's targeted lung cancer drug Xalkori, which could shrink or eliminate tumors in 10 to 12 months for people with a specific genetic mutation.
"The most promising drugs show an effect early," Allen said. "(But) there's a mentality among drug developers or FDA reviewers that you have to go through this multi-step approach" to get a drug to market.
"We're hoping to encourage getting away from that," he said.
Allen said the FDA would retain its power to require companies to do post-approval studies, or withdraw drugs from the market if initial evidence of benefit was not shown in follow-up trials.
How does support look like? I cannot see level 2 bids at work. What sort of bids do we see on the buy side? Do we show strong support on the down side? Thanks in advance for any help.
Seeker
So Ovidius since you have been the best predictor of NNVC price by being the only one to say it will go to the 50's, what is your opinion now of future movement. Isn't this drop to 50's too soon, one may expect it to happen during fall season, but this time the drop from 90's to 50's happened within couple of months.
Seeker
Cabel,
Seaside is not required to sell any stock. According to the contract with NNVC they only have to buy $400,000 of stock every other Wednesday.
So it is a matter of speculation as to how many shares Seaside actually sells. I investigated the types of companies that seaside has been investing (?) in. The result showed that they have this type of contract with companies in multiple industries, some even on the verge of bankruptcy. That showed me that Seaside is not investing in any company, they are simply in the business of buying shares in small companies at a discount, then turning around and selling the stock in the open market at a profit.
Clearly Seaside buys NNVC stock at 15% or more discount to market price. Then as long as they sell quickly, they should make a gain of at least 15%. The problem for a long time was that NNVC stock was constantly dropping in price. That meant that unless Seaside sold quickly they could make less than 15%. My estimate is that they never sold NNVC stock at a loss.
When I look at this scenario, my estimate is that Seaside sold 90 to 100% of the stock they have bought. So at most they hold 10% of what they bought, most likely none. We know for sure that they do not have more than 5% of outstanding stock, otherwise they would have to file with SEC. I do not think they will have much stock left to sell after May. Others here have estimated that Seaside has been unable to sell all the stock and still has a significant amount of stock left with them. All of us are just estimating how much stock is still with Seaside.
Seeker
Volume totally dried up, 9600 shares traded by noon. What happened to Seaside?
In my opinion there is nothing to worry. When we were in the 50's I was worried because if 50 cent support broke, we could go down substantially. The rally from 50's to 90's was strong and built a strong support in the 50's. While it is still possible to go below 50 cent, I think it is very unlikely. Right now the strong support in 50's will hold and sustain a lot of selling pressure.
As you say Seaside continues to sell and that selling may be worrisome to some, but that worry is nothing compared to the worry in the 50's. Right now the stock is likely to fluctuate between say 65 and 95 cents. Let it do that, why worry? Once we are through the current round of Seaside selling within 1 1/2 months, we should see a relief rally. If the company decides to collect another $5 million through Seaside, that will worry me some. I would hope that the company will let the stock go above $1 before starting another deal with Seaside.
Meanwhile quit worrying. The good news is inevitable soon. Sit back and enjoy. The very low rate of posting on the board shows that most of us are in a happy state right now, as we should be. In the end we will all make lot of money through NNVC. It will just take some time, but that is what investing is about. The trick is not to worry about short term fluctuations too much, just keep a good bunch of stock in your bag, sit back and enjoy.
Seeker
"Astonishing interactive tool for visualizing relative sizes of biological entities:
http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/begin/cells/scale/ "
Wow, that web page is so awesome. First, I did not understand. As you move the sliding scale the resulting pictures are so wonderfully informative. Thanks for sharing.
Seeker
It is this type of discussion or actual mutant virus generation that will propel NNVC to dizzying heights one day. Once the desperate need for a generalized anti-viral becomes apparent we will see all sorts of people helping NNVC become successful. Such help will include technical help as well as help getting the anti-viral through FDA. At that time we will have no shortage of resources, such as now. Supposing ten companies were offering us their cGMP facility for free, how wonderful would that be? It is just the waiting until such event that is painful. In the end we should be successful.
Seeker
No link to general market - Today we clearly see how delinked NNVC stock is to the general market. The market is sharply down while NNVC is sharply up, no link at all to general market conditions. As others have pointed out NNVC stock is driven by its own news flow.
As long as share price is above $1 Seaside selling is fine. It provides the cash that we need. It becomes terrible far below $1 because then the dilution caused by this selling becomes excessive. Just my opinion of course. Somebody else may have an entirely different set of dollar values such as 50 cents or $2.
Injections yet to be developed?
The company said:"The Company’s initial indications for the drug are anticipated to be (a) a “piggy-back” solution for delivery via the customary IV infusion for hospitalized patients presenting with Influenza-Like-Illness (ILI), and (b) out-patient influenza. The Company continues to develop injectable formulations for both of these indications, as its first generation anti-influenza drugs."
This is the first time that I have understood that more work is needed in this area. They have an IV formulation for both hospitalized patients as well as outpatients. That may work for hospitalized ones, but will not work for outpatients. We must quickly develop injectable versions.
Let us not treat the process of manufacturing the cides as if it was the same as making any other chemical. These nano materials would be very difficult to make. Our doctors understand the manufacturing process, we do not. Producing a chemical would be a much easier process. One could easily find multiple sites where a chemical could be made, cGMP and otherwise.
Stock seems to have bottomed for now. I had commented that it was likely to retrace to 65 to 70 cents range. It is there now. Some said that they will buy in that range. Well, let us buy. I do not think this rally has ended. It should take the stock higher up. So this may be a good time to buy. I am getting ready to buy.
DFG : "The current goal(among many) of the company is to hold off further funding until after Phase 1 studies begin"
Are you saying that after this round of Seaside, company does not plan any further deals with Seaside until quite a bit later?
Seeker
Nano - "With all those shares entering the market Seaside must be one helluva salesman. Or NNVC must be one helluva company. Or both"
Both is my guess. Seaside is a master of selling. They sell on the bid. They sold on Wednesday and they are back today. They let one day pass to let the stock price stabilize.
I think NNVC has big support in the market too. It is not easy to absorb 5 million share sale every 6 months. The stock price has suffered but not cratered. Investors do realize the big potential of the technology. I personally bought recently at 58 cents and if the stock price goes into the 50s again I will buy more.
I think the recent rally has now made a strong support for stock price. We are unlikely to see the stock go below 50s in near future. There is a good chance that this support will stand for many years. That is a very good news.
I sure hope that in three months we are done with Seaside. However, we cannot assume that Seaside contract will not be renewed. NNVC has continuing expenses and no revenue. So we need a source of income. Seaside has been that source for 2 years now. While PR says that we have more than 2 years of cash, there is great danger in running out of cash. So one way to preserve long term viability of the company has been to raise cash on a continuing basis.
Our suggestion was to let the stock price stabilize above $1 and then only renew the contract with Seaside. NNVC may do that or they may continue to renew Seaside contract without gaps. Let us see which way they decide.
The other way to raise cash would be to partner with a big company. As others have pointed out that has downside also. Our technology is wonderful, why share the fruits with somebody else? So NNVC management has to make hard decision - continue stock price erosion with Seaside contracts or share fruits with a partner. Let us support them whichever way they decide. They have the best knowledge, we do not.
My only gripe was when the stock went to 50 cents and we did not see some insider buying. On the rest of the issues NNVC management has my full support.
Seeker
We are back down to normal volume around 200K. Seaside knows how to sell into this volume.
You are right. Today is a conversion day for Seaside. Given the relatively high price of stock they may have decided to unload quickly.
Seeker
Mx,
RSI of period 14 seems to be standard on a daily chart, and it seems to work. It fluctuates between 20% (oversold) and 80% (overbought). You could pick some other period and all it will do is change the top and bottom levels between which the index fluctuates.
Seeker
theorc66, Agreed. I was not suggesting that we sell them all soon. Sell one just to get some cash which seems to be short supply now. If we had moeny we could give Seaside the boot. How I would love that!
All small companies which die do so as a result of shortage of cash. So my idea was sell one indication so that we can fly on the remaining indications. See this technology is worth a lot. It would be a shame if we destroyed ourselves in the process of raising cash.
Seeker
My estimate for the bottom of this round of selloff was 65 to 70 cents anyway. Not too far now.
Seeker
Echo,
I know we are going after Flucide. But we need money also. So we can sell whatever a buyer wants. At this time Heaptitis C seems to be in vogue. So if that's what the market wants, sell that. Not much reason for us to stick with Flucide only for selling purposes. For development we have clearly chosen Flucide as the first one.
Seeker
Nanopatent,
That is an amazing news. Novartis buying a drug that has not yet entered phase 1. Why would Novartis not buy our technology? We are also almost at the same stage. Given this news I am encouraged that we may soon see some developments in selling our own technology.
In my opinion the best would be if say we sold our technology for one of the indications such as for Hepatitis C or flu. We would still participate in the development of that drug and then using the money and learnings from that trial then we develop the technology for all remaining indictaions on our own. Finally, we could sell technology for that indication once it is through the NDA process. That way we would get the best deal. In my opinion we are not a marketing organisation while the big drug companys' primary expertise is in marketing. So we could leave the final marketing to them. Just rake in the royalties and use the money for researching new cides.
We may not have to wait long. Somebody else sold technology which is yet to start phase 1. We can do the same too.
Seeker
Excellent idea. I was just lucky to buy at 58 cents. It is tough to guess the bottom
Well if it goes to 90 cents and back over $1 that would not be a pullback at all. Hopefully, you are correct. Some big guys seem to behind this rally. They may let the stock linger for a couple days and then come back in to buy. That is when your projection will be correct. On the other hand if they do not start buying soon a correction is possible.
All stock price projections are guess work. It is impossible to predict what Wall Street will do in short term. Why they brought us down to 52 cents is totally incomprehensible to me.
My estimate pull back down to 65 to 70 cent range
Do you think that Seaside gets a bunch of shares and then sells it in the next two weeks? The prevailing thought is that they have not been able to sell all they got since the voulme in general has been anemic. If that is true then Seaside would be left with a subastantial share ownership. The current buying spree would have given Seaside the opportunity to unload what they could not earlier due to low volume. I do not have an answer. That is why I would love to know how much stock they own.
I think Seaside selling is missing recently. I suspect seaside sold all they wanted to on the way up and now have no selling allotment left. I would love to know how many shares they still own. Has to be less than 5% of outstanding otherwise they would have to file with SEC. But is it 0, 1%, 2%?
In my opinion Seaside continues to dump at a constant rate. When the volume was low Seaside activity amounted to 50% of trades, that much selling caused a serious downdraft. Now Seaside selling may only comprise say 10% of total trading. It is just that buying has overwhelmed Seaside selling. We must also realize that the stock was oversold for a long time and had to see a rebound, that is what is occuring. What caused the sharp rebound? Who knows it could be a combination of factors, Diwan's presentation, Allen's recommendation, technical factors, buying time for biotech etc.
Market is truly crazy. First, they let the NNVC stock price drop down to 52 cents, which was ridiculous. Now they are buying the same stock with such vigor that it seems that the stock should be priced at $5. Who knows what the reality is. I just get shocked at the ridiculousness on both ends.
Are there shorts in this stock?
Congratulations to Dr. Diwan on his presentation. This is the first time I have seen such a vigorous response from the investment community to a NNVC presentation. Hopefully, it is all related to his presentation. I have been very critical of Dr. Seymour. If NNVC management can keep up this type of publicity there will be no reason for any of us to worry about stock performance.
Seeker
Doc, I did not know that companies cannot sell in the market directly. Is the opposite also true, that is they cannot buy their own stock in the stock market? We see a lot of announcements that the company is going to buy its own stock back. My own employer has been buying back its own stock for decades. How do these companies manage to buy back?
Seeker
Abbam,
People have differing opinion about the Seaside transaction. I will give you my opinion.
I think Seaside has little interest in NNVC as a corporation, they just buy stock from the company at a discount and then sell it in the market. They do this type of transaction for many companies in various industries. The only problem they may have is that they may not be able to sell all the stock that they want since sometimes NNVC volume drops so low.
NNVC does not sell the stock directly in the market beacuse it takes some expertize to do ongoing selling, I mean Seaside has been selling NNVC stock for almost two years now. NNVC's business is biotechnology not stock market activity. They are essentially paying approximately 21% fee so that they can sell through Seaside, which in my opinion is too high.
A company such as NNVC needs continuous source of funds to operate and continue their mission. If they do not have a cash source such as Seaside they would not be able to operate. They currently have cash to let them operate for more than two years. So by selling to Seaside they are being safe at the price of lowering their stock price. The question is should they keep selling when the stock goes below $1, $0.50, $0.25. It is up to the company to decide this number. Their decision so far seems to show that they do not think stock price in 50 cents to $1 range is too low.
However, NNVC could have sold stock in a different type of transaction that they could have handled easily. They could have sold stock to investors directly in a seconday offering or in a rights offering. The fees for such transactions would have been lower and such transactions may not have lowered the stock as much as Seaside transaction has. However, that is my opinion. The company has to assess the situation themselves and make the decision. They have decided that Seaside transaction is the way to go.
Seeker
StockGuru "Resistance at 0.75"
Must be a minor resistance. When NNVC crossed the 50 day moving average around 62 cents it was a thing of beauty. We saw such a strong volume over 800,000. Now 62 cents forms a good resistance to the downside. It will take a lot of effort to go below 60 cents. On the upside there are minor resistances like at 75 cents. The next major resistance is at $1. So I expect upward movement until about $1 as long as Seaside lets us move by not selling seriously. They can keep selling slowly just should not sell a lot at one time. They are smart enough so I think they will not try to stop the upward movement once it has started. It is in their best interest too, they have a lot of share bought at less than 50 cents. My buy at 58 cents turned out to be at the right time. Best of luck to all longs.
Seeker
H, Well. All we can do is play the game.
Even without level 2, I can see that there is a sell order for 65,700 shares at 0.59. Who will do this other than Seaside?
It is this type of behavior that keeps the stock price down. Let the poor stock run some before they should start their selling. Instead they keep the stock price down all the time. Looks like I will get my 60K fill today. 14.7K filled so far.
Seeker
DFG: "Or, hungry"
Ha Ha! You are funny, doc.