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Thanks for that Vis. Holy smokes was that an eye opener. I have physics degrees, and what I do in my career is physics and chemistry, and I can tell you there is some very heavy duty, big time physics going on with this stuff. No wonder the industry hasn't been able to get going yet. Nuclear power is way simpler than this stuff.
So three things jump out at me.
One is that I have to take back my thought that true closed loop would be announced by the end of the year. They aren't there yet.
The second is that the patents are absolutely going to be SGLB's salvation.
Because the third is that the printer OEMS are going to have to have IPQA to help the industry go forward, because the level of hardcore intelligence required to make IPQA work is way beyond the end-users and most OEM's capabilities. It is absolutely going to take IPQA's success to allow metal AM to be successful on a production scale.
And I guess the fourth thing that jumps out is that SGLB has lots and lots of room to keep expanding the abilities of IPQA.
All the best,
Silversmith
I never said Velo was winning business because of the Assure module. I happen to think you are right about Velo's printers. They are winning business because of the build chamber volume and the front-end design analysis. But it remains the case that printer OEMs must compete or fade out, and IPQA capability with closed-loop is one necessary thing to compete.
All the best,
Silversmith
No max. I don't believe Velo's Assure module has anything beyond PR3D. They are walking a thin line though, and without any patents that I am aware of. I think SGLB could probably take them down for patent infringement. But in truth, at the moment, SGLB is probably letting them help get the whole IPQA method initiated in the metal AM space. Let them get as many early end users converted to relying on IPQA as they can, then shut down Assure in court. Velo would have to license the tech to continue with it. It is also why I believe SGLB will be announcing printer OEM embedding deals. The printer OEMs see Velo winning business, and they can't not have IPQA if they choose to stay in business. Any cursory look into the patent protections surrounding IPQA tech show SGLB to be the IPQA to incorporate.
Below is some text from the Velo Assure brochure.
All the best,
Silversmith
Assure™
Quality Assurance
and Control System
Working in concert with Sapphire® and Flow™, Assure,
a revolutionary quality control system, enables visibility
into every layer of the build through real-time, multisensor, physics-based excursion detection algorithms.
Assure validates printed part quality to provide the
transparency needed for volume production
Pre-build System Calibration
Assure helps you understand if machine health is optimal
before a build begins. Assure monitors optics, sensors,
consumables, and powder bed quality, and displays the
data directly on the dashboard for all printers.
Real-time Monitoring and Alerts
Assure enables engineers to track the quality and
progress of Sapphire machines real-time via Assure’s
secure, on-site servers.
In-Situ Defect Detection
Assure substantiates the part quality needed for volume
production by predicting bulk material properties, in
real-time, for each part.
Detailed Build Report
Assure automatically generates a build report that can
form the foundation of a Certificate of Compliance. This
report offers full traceability of system performance and
any predicted part defects during the build.
Stuff you don't see coming. Like law suits from someone claiming prior intellectual ownership, or someone buying the company before all the growth materializes, or the whole metal AM industry just falling on its face and never getting going, or some little skunk-works company breaking through with a superior IPQA method. Weird stuff.
All the best,
Silversmith
It shouldn't be too much longer. It is true SGLB is still mostly a business plan, and not a business, yet. But they have the product that can power the metal AM industry.
The 2020 AM Power report for Metal AM has the global supplier forecast at $6.9 billion euro, while the buyer forecast is $5.9 billion euro by 2024. If you take the middle that is global $6.4 billion euro.
Traditional quality control spend, and the like, run between 23 and 31% of global manufacturing spend. We know current metal AM QA is way higher with current methods. But if SGLB gets to be the QA embedded in the industry, at even 15% of manufacturing spend that would be a whisker shy of $1 billion.
Long before SGLB gets to that point we will see well over $100 per share USD prices. With the current share structure, $100 per share is only a $300 million USD market cap. I expect we will be a $300 million USD market cap company by the end of 2021, if nothing weird happens.
I expect a news release for fully functional closed-loop, SGLB embedded in more than one OEM, and a rather large warrants financing buy-in by some major corporations yet in 2020. Then it will be off to the races.
All the best,
Silversmith
With some of the talk out there about IPQA in the industry, I predict we will see the coming together of a few things somewhat all at once. I am predicting a 2020 announcement from SGLB of the completion of true, fully integrated, actual printer parameter adjustment/correction closed-loop control. And it will incorporate those OEMs that will concurrently close contract deals for embedded PR3D in all their OEM printers. SGLB inside will become a fact. At that point the metal AM industry won't be able to turn its back on IPQA. And that is the point we will see one or more large corporate level investments in SGLB. At that point it would be clear that SGLB is the defacto IPQA for the industry.
So I don't see any near term dilution until the likes of the big dog corporations start sniffing around. But sure, SGLB would accept a million or two here and there if someone comes to them with it. We could see that kind of thing yet.
David Joyce is gone as CEO of GE Aviation. It will be interesting to see where the new guy takes GEA. He is Scottish and has large EU relations with the aerospace industry, which is in deep with SGLB. Particularly Airbus. It might be a double edge sword for SGLB. The new CEO may push Airbus to look at GEA's IPQA, which I gotta believe they already have. But Airbus has Rolls Royce build their engines, not GEA. And he himself may see that GEA has no chance of competing with the degree of effectiveness that SGLB and PR3D has. And he may decide GEA needs to play ball with SGLB or buy them. All kinds of things are happening behind the curtain in the AM space. And SGLB is not sitting around idle. Closed loop is coming. OEM embedded PR3D is coming. For sure.
All the best,
Silversmith
Congratulations Elon Musk, and NASA. Now bring on the metal 3D print industry and SGLB.
All the best,
Silversmith
Just checking in here. Looks like nothing much has changed. SGLB inches along the same as the rest of the industry, if it can be called an industry. The whole global metal 3d print effort hasn't turned out anything like most anticipated. The whole industry is one huge face-plant of malfunction; one big snail's pace evaluation trial at every stage from design to powder to printer to QA to post production. SGLB is stuck in the morass along with everyone else. It will be interesting to see if it took a pandemic to get it all on its feet.
All the best,
Silversmith
I haven't been following SGLB share prices or the board for a while now. But I just scanned a page of posts now. Careful with the wash rule T&L. It is a total of 61 days involved. It includes the 30 days previous to the day of sale, the day of the sale, and the 30 days after the day of the sale. Count carefully. And to get afoul of it, you don't even need to actually trade in SGLB shares. The rule states that anything 'similar' to the shares sold count in the wash sale rule.
All the best,
Silversmith
Roar baby roar. I all but doubled down over the last week. This is nice to see. SGLB's story and puzzle pieces fitting together are so very much better than ever before. And they have had a little luck on their side recently with the timely cash raise. I am seeing many reports that startup financing opportunities have all but dried up. Startups caught out are now in trouble.
There is also lots of talk about end-users firing up metal AM to get things going in production. I think we are seeing SGLB in the moment right before production sales commence.
And while it is early days yet, it looks like we may be developing a bit of an actual market for SGLB shares. It is almost all looking very good to me.
All the best,
Silversmith
Not a bad call. Pretty heartening actually.
Corona virus not slowing them down much. End-user engineers loving that they can monitor builds remotely with PR3D.
Confirmed PR3D is operational for multi laser applications. Confirmed the RTE program is over. If someone wants to try PR3D they have to buy it full price now. Confirmed several more entities other than the announced RTE names are active or in the pipeline. Ruport is firm that revenue starting 1st qtr 2020 will just keep growing each quarter as far as the eye can see.
Closed loop is coming for any OEM SGLB partners with. Sales calls already being conducted alongside MTLS. Negotiations in process with additional OEMs.
About the only real negative is that break-even is pushed out to 2021 and PR3D is not embedded in the MTLS platform yet. Still, things are starting to sound pretty damn promising.
All the best,
Silversmith
I disagree kanya. SGLB's blind luck timing was very fortunate. They are solidly above NASDAQ listing hurdles, even with more selling pressure. And they are likely financed enough to get them to sales revenue streams for a while. They likely wouldn't get a finance deal now, and they would be buried deep with the NASDAQ listing requirements. I think it was very fortunate they did it all when they did.
All the best,
Silversmith
Provided SGLB goes on to rebound and reflect the real value of the tech and the industry, then this is working out for me big time. I have been buying back in by the thousands, after moving a bunch of green shares out of the way before the split. Get them bottom feeding first thing in the morning when everyone is freaking out.
All the best,
Silversmith
Not so fast endra. SGLB investors are disbelievers who only acknowledge actual dollars in SGLB's bank account as being truth, LOL. No amount of anything else counts in their eyes. And even then they question if it is typo.
Congratulations to SGLB for bringing this product to market. Good job.
All the best,
Silversmith
Just back from a trip abroad, and I see SGLB didn't wait around for getting the house issues in order. Looking at how well the SGLB market behavior reacted to the split yesterday, it seems probable this one is going to work well going forward. Other than the inherent volatility of such a small float, now the flaky retail clowns find themselves mostly looking in from the outside. I think this was the event that took the future value of the company out of the hands of the idiots and pessimists, opening the way for forward looking/thinking investors, including institutional. Now we have to resolve the ask for an increase in the authorized, the preferred conversion dilution, and bring on the first handful of production contracts.
The whole, near pandemic, corona virus thing is going to push things along for metal AM. There was already a wide global shift toward moving production closer to consumers. And now the virus driven global supply chain breakdown, which is growing ominous for production companies the world over, will make it clear that the way things are now is not acceptable. Single supplier, just in time delivery is now being revealed as very susceptible. I think things will speed up for metal AM serial production as a result. And SGLB is needed to make it happen.
My gut tells me SGLB is about to come alive.
All the best,
Silversmith
El Jefe,
There is a lot of wiggle room for the price threshold requirement for SGLB. They can delay for almost the entire year yet before it becomes an issue that must be addressed. I suspect things will be moving up well before then though. I'm not too worried about it right now.
All the best,
Silversmith
I was green on a whole bunch of shares by significant percentages. I still hold a small mountain more though. It made sense. I'll let you know when I buy them back.
All the best,
Silversmith
Untold new technologies go through what we, SGLB and PR3D are going through right now with the whole story of whether PR3D will be used widespread in industry. In fact, almost all new tech faces the same thing. I am reminded of the whole story of Westinghouse backing Nicola Tesla and AC voltage vs JP Morgan backing Thomas Edison and DC voltage in the cliff hanger over whether the world would go with AC or DC lighting bulbs. The Niagara Falls power plant selection of Westinghouse/Tesla was the tipping point, and AC current won the day. This is the same thing today for SGLB with the likes of Airbus et al. Some things never change.
But I like our chances here. And I am not too overly worried about the recent financing. If PR3D goes into production the financing dilution won't be much of an impact. Short term it sucks. The price drop we experienced since the preferred sale was telegraphed in the offering statements. It is a long proven method of hedging and risk reduction on the part of investment capital firms to short a good chunk of the shares, and that is exactly what our financiers did. No doubt in my mind about it. They short the stock now, and cover later with the shares they get when they convert the preferred. It lets them all sleep better at night. I moved a bunch of shares out of the way before it happened, and I will be adding them back when it all settles down, and the wash rule expires.
Things are still good to go here, but it all sits on the head of a pin.
All the best,
Silversmith
I don't think they need anything new prior to the show. People around here don't realize what is happening before their own eyes. Savvy people at the level of the VC world and others will know though. What SGLB has before them is rare. To have an industrial product that gets pulled into demand use by end-users; essentially forcing the rest of the industry supply chain players to conform around the new product, or lose business opportunity, is a once in a life time thing. You are lucky to see it once in your life. It doesn't happen very often at all. The train leaves the station when end users commence PR3D operations.
All the best,
Silversmith
Indeed I did listen to the call. The question was flat out asked if PR3D works. Based upon the fact that the world hasn't knocked down SGLB's doors trying to get PR3D in production, it begs the question if PR3D actually works. And he clearly stated that PR3D is fully working. Do they envision it continuing to evolve into more and more powerful abilities? Yes they do.
And the end-users are now actively pushing back on the OEMs. To the point of declaring that they will not buy their printers at all unless PR3D can be the IPQA for the machine. Sounds real good to me. SGLB's numbers show a $2 billion dollar sales opportunity ahead of them over the coming decade. Ruport believes it will be even higher than that.
All the best,
Silversmith
I guess we will see what happens. I can't explain it.
All the best,
Silversmith
I have no idea. That's why I'm wondering if I am missing something. I mean 150 million outstanding is way more than okay for a global company making huge profits on enormous revenue. But for little old SGLB it is a different story. They only play in the metal AM machine space. It's not like they have a target audience on the scale of the human population. And if it's going to take 150 million shares just to cover the preferred, how much more will they want in order to get some wiggle room?
All the best,
Silversmith
Nope. In one quick strike Rice and the board eliminated any possibility of the share price going to $100. At least not without first wiping out current shareholders with a huge reverse split sometime in the future. I figure the max SGLB can be, after all the dust settles, and all the preferred shares get converted and sold into the market, is maybe $10. And that's after the metal 3D print industry and SGLB are fully cranking.
Those preferred shares are going to get converted one way or another. The only way out, with any kind of significant share of the company left for the common, is if SGLB buys out the preferred holders. I am amazed Rice did this deal. He traded potentially about 537% of the company shares for a mere $2.1 million. Plus the additional series created is also convertible. Unless I am totally missing this thing, I am amazed with it.
All the best,
Silversmith
Its coming soon.
All the best,
Silversmith
(z) Shareholder Approval. The Company shall provide each shareholder entitled to vote at a special or annual meeting of shareholders of the Company (the “Shareholder Meeting”), which shall be promptly called and held not later than March 30, 2020 (the “Shareholder Meeting Deadline”), a proxy statement, in a form reasonably acceptable to the Buyers and Kelley Drye & Warren LLP, at the expense of the Company, with the Company obligated to reimburse the expenses of Kelley Drye & Warren LLP incurred in connection therewith in an amount not exceed $5,000, soliciting each such shareholder’s affirmative vote at the Shareholder Meeting for approval of resolutions (“Shareholder Resolutions”) providing for (x) the issuance of all of the Securities in compliance with the rules and regulations of the Principal Market (without regard to any limitations on conversion or exercise, as applicable, with respect thereto) (the “Transaction Shareholder Approval”, and the date such Transaction Shareholder Approval is obtained, the “Transaction Shareholder Approval Date”) and (y) either (A) the increase of the authorized shares of Common Stock of the Company and/or (B) a reverse stock split of the Common Stock such that, in either case, by no later than the second (2nd) Trading Day following such Share Increase Shareholder Approval Date (as defined below) no Authorized Share Failure shall exist hereunder (the “Share Increase Shareholder Approval”, and the date such Share Increase Shareholder Approval is obtained, the “Share Increase Shareholder Approval Date”), and the Company shall use its reasonable best efforts to solicit its shareholders’ approval of such resolutions and to cause the Board of Directors of the Company to recommend to the shareholders that they approve such resolutions. The Company shall be obligated to seek to obtain the Transaction Shareholder Approval and the Share Increase Shareholder Approval (collectively, the “Shareholder Approval”, and the date such Shareholder Approval is obtained, the “Shareholder Approval Date”) by the Shareholder Meeting Deadline. If, despite the Company’s reasonable best efforts the Shareholder Approval is not obtained on or prior to the Shareholder Meeting Deadline, the Company shall cause an additional Shareholder Meeting to be held on or prior to June 30, 2020. If, despite the Company’s reasonable best efforts the Shareholder Approval is not obtained after such subsequent shareholder meetings, the Company shall cause an additional Shareholder Meeting to be held semi-annually thereafter until such Shareholder Approval is obtained.
Just checking in here to see what all the noise is about. I see the series D preferred conversion rate was the hand grenade in the room.
Interesting idea about it all being a poison pill plan soil.
The idea that this is some kind of death spiral financing doesn't add up. There is definitely more to the story here.
For starters, they can do all the reverse splits they want, and they still won't come even close to providing for enough shares to cover the conversion feature of the series D. No matter what, even if they did a one for zero reverse split, they would still be limited to the current 22.5M authorized; not even close to the amount needed for the conversion.
So basically only three outcomes are possible. SGLB asks shareholders for the expansion of the authorized, knowing full well that it might get voted down. Shareholders have the control to vote it down. It would be at a minimum a 500% dilution, and involve everyone, Rice, Schwartz, Cola, the board of directors, the whole company and their options incentives. Along with the fact that one or more board members and probably Schwartz buying into the other preferred series, and everyone expecting near term success for the company, and revenue just around the corner, an ask for increasing the authorized might indeed be denied.
But a provision in the series D allows for the whole series to be bought out at 125% of the total transaction. So SGLB, with sales revenue, or an entity buying SGLB could simply buy out the series D.
Or the series D holders could simply take their 9% interest and wait. They can't seriously short enough to hedge the conversion of the preferred. There aren't even close to enough current 'shortable' shares to hedge very much of the conversion. I can't imagine that is their plan.
Something doesn't add up for sure. It doesn't seem to work for anyone of the parties on paper. There has got to be more to it.
All the best,
Silversmith
Good question max. There are so many variables it is all resting on the head of a pin. But once SGLB wins one or two end-user or OEM accounts, and the industry makes it fairly clear they are going with IPQA thermal, say by the end of 2020, I think we will see a market cap in the range of 200M. Once wall street drowns out the retail clowns, and if the global economy doesn't break open, and if the metal AM industry continues to advance, I think we should see 350-400M in 2 years. But what I am coming around to feeling lately is that SGLB can be much bigger as a mature company. I am thinking 700-750M in 5 years is a possibility if they are pretty much the sole IPQA for the industry, and the metal 3D industry gets cranking across all the many applications possible. But who knows. I think where things are right now is ridiculous. With what we know right now about the position of the industry and SGLB in it, we should absolutely be at 100M right now. And I think that is indeed going to happen fairly soon.
All the best,
Silversmith
I agree all the way, outlook.
I expect it fairly soon actually. I am thinking SGLB's fully diluted share count, taking into account all the possible warrant and convertible shares, is probably getting near the authorized. So I see the next big structure change being, once the share price climbs, a forward split for shareholder incentive, and an ask for an increase in the authorized. This will allow SGLB to bring on the venture capital and big institutional's that will want in with investments. It will also give them the possibility to bolt on an addition if they see one that fits for their place in the industry. There is no way wall street is going to allow all the value of a winning SGLB to reside in the hands of the common shareholder. They will want in on it. And I am okay with a forward split and increased authorized; but only as long as we get the forward split also.
All the best,
Silversmith
You might try that yourself endra. Imperial is a mover and shaker, rubbing elbows with the JP Morgans and Goldmans of the world. They also specialize in making deals. Maybe try looking at the deals they have done recently. They are headquartered out of California. The real-deal Silicone Valley VC's are part of their events.
I suspect this is Ruport opening doors for SGLB.
All the best,
Silversmith
The Diamond show wasn't even close. At Diamond, Rice had less than 15 minutes to give his elevator speech, and 5 minutes for any questions. Then they were all pushed out of the room for the next group. It was like speed dating.
The Imperial show is all about information exchange, group, and actual one-on-one discussion, and goes on for two days.
All the best,
Silversmith
The Imperial Capital conference is a new level for SGLB. Actual venture capital and wall street will be there. Should be interesting.
All the best,
Silversmith
Well I'll be. I did not know that, outlook.
Thanks.
All the best,
Silversmith
I am really glad to see Sandia using PR3D. For a few years now Sandia has been trying out seemingly everything else other than PR3D. But something changed, because this test matrix was for one of the most important characteristics of metal AM. Charpy testing is a method to indicate material toughness. It encompasses basically everything intrinsic to metal behavior in doing so. You can't have high toughness if any of the individual metal parameters is poor.
It looks to me as though Sandia was using TED to set three largely different energy flux conditions so they could see how Charpy behaved in the different energy bands. It also looks like they were looking to see if TED could predict Charpy. TED tracked density, and density tracked Charpy. So TED indirectly tracked Charpy.
Pretty good stuff.
I don't see where Honeywell comes in with this though. Am I missing something?
All the best,
Silversmith
That is an exceptionally well done document T&L. The information and knowledge gathering of the global AM field being performed by these people is amazing. And the scope of it shows just how much effort is being put into successful 3D printing globally. 3D printing is truly going to change the human landscape. SGLB is clearly a part of it.
I have found myself recently beginning to feel that my early considerations of the dollar value of a mature SGLB are probably too low. Announcements of large OEMs going with PR3D, and the tilt of the industry toward use of IPQA will cause the market value of SGLB to explode. This thing can be very big indeed, and it continues to head in that direction.
All the best,
Silversmith
Finally, insiders are buying ownership of SGLB with their own personal hard cash. No tricks or gimmicks, and a lower interest due on the preferred than before. This is looking good for what it says about the feelings of the C- suite and directors concerning SGLB's coming success...real good.
All the best,
Silversmith
A good read Kanya. I envy younger generations who will greatly benefit from the outcome of a fully mature additive world 20 and 40 years down the road. This technology will enormously change the acquisition and nature of material things for future generations.
When you read this, it is clear that this industry is still just an infant. There is much work to be done, but it will be an amazing thing when it grows up.
SGLB is in a great place, and will likely bring several of us significant wealth.
SGLB investors are, and will continue, to make the same error of their recent history. They refuse to acknowledge what is happening for real in the metal AM space. They refuse to attache value to SGLB unless and until it is prior fact. This will cost them.
All the best,
Silversmith
Also sounds like SGLB is neck deep in hammering out details for commercial agreements with one or more printer manufacturers. Rice makes it sound like it is happening, as opposed to SGLB merely desiring it to be.
All the best,
Silversmith
I have been focusing on Airbus for a little while now. It is impressive, and I am inclined to agree with Rice that Airbus is very likely more extensively into metal printing than GE is. Airbus's AP works has declared serial production is underway for metal printing out of Bristol, England. Airbus is a very big AM heavy weight in all kinds of industry, from defense, aerospace, satellite, helicopter, turbine, and many other venues. Airbus has partnered with Farsoon recently, so its extent is truly global and very far from just airplanes. It is huge. If SGLB closes serial production deals with Airbus, it will be a win with as big a customer as can possibly be, globally. AP works has been with Additive Industries since the beginning. The web of long term connections between Materialize, Airbus, MTC, Farsoon, AP works, SGLB, Additive Industries, and so very many others is amazing. SGLB's success with the EU could be enormous. The connections among all of them are extensive. Materialize's incorporation of PR3D will be a very big deal. They are all pretty much tied at the hip in the EU.
All the best,
Silversmith
Thanks Viper. I didn't realize my link was messed up. The original was a copy and paste, and apparently had some other junk attached.
The original image header stated 'Airbus turbine stage' and some kind of part number.
All the best,
Silversmith
Cummins Turbo Machinery is working with the UK's MTC and our SGLB for printing high pressure turbo systems.
All the best,
Silversmith
Here is Airbus using PR3D for turbine printing.
https://giecdn.blob.core.windows.net/fileuploads/image/2019/09/26/photo_2_sigma-labs-turbine_1_fmt1.png" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" >https://giecdn.blob.core.windows.net/fileuploads/image/2019/09/26/photo_2_sigma-labs-turbine_1_fmt1.png
All the best,
Silversmith