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I don't think that it was odd at all. If you would look back at all the PR since the start of the year, most has been followed by a drop in pps. That's because the desire is for a certified unit. People buy in expecting that the up coming PR will be certification and cause a big spike in pps. If the news doesn't come out, they sell and wait for the next PR.
Charts are a big item here so if you would drop a time line down on each chart showing a PR, I would think that the results would be interesting. I don't argue that it will happen at some time. You won't argue that there are plenty that may look at the company as a good trade and not a long term play. Knowing what you know, don't you think that buying in just prior to a certification release would provide a nice return ? As you have said before, there are more than just longs watching ARSC. MMs , Shorts, day traders and Short term traders all have their reasons and when the volume is low , their actions will impact the pps, some of which the longs don't care to see.
I guess that answers the question better than I could.
I haven't gotten a F yet but I know that it because of kindness alone.
I'm glad that since you can see a tie between knowing more about DD and ARSC it is likely that this kind of cooperation between board members is not taken as off subject but could be encouraged.
The trained eye knows where to look. That's a big part of trying to figure what is going on. It takes time to aquire a trained eye. I'm glad that you have put in the time. Through ARSC, I'm learning but it is slow going. You have given me some good pointers and I think that makes this a better board. A little sharing of the how to is a great benefit to many board members. Few don't want to be bothered because they are too good but they are outnumbered by many more that always welcome a new tool for DD.
I miss spoke in the below statment. I understand that it implies that FDA approval is faster. I agree that is wrong.
From the "Although" point,I was refering to the fuel cell. Like the drug process, design and testing of a fuel cell can take years. Once the certification process is stated on the fuel cell, the time to market is with no doubt faster.
I continue to say that the bottom line for both organizations is protection of the end user.
It should have stated that: Although the fuel cell is faster,once Certification is started, the bottom line is that protection of the end users is the same.
Sorry for the miss print.
I do understand that FDA approval is a bigger hurdle because they are trying to protect people who consume these products.
Although faster,once Certification is started, the bottom line is protection of the users are the same.
Let's see:
FDA approval then produce the drugs then sell the drugs and make money.
CSA Certification on the fuel cell, then produce the fuel cells and make money.
Just like FDA approval, ARSC can't make money with out CSA approval so I would call it an obstacle.
FDA and CSA both are an approval process and both are needed before the companys can make money so they are similar obstacles.
I do understand that FDA approval is a bigger hurdle because they are trying to protect people who consume these products.
Although faster,once Certification is started, the bottom line is protection of the users are the same.
For drugs, the approval process can take years with all of the testing effectiveness and side affects. For a company like ARSC, the process is more dependent on funding to arrive at a production model.
Even though we have had our share of BS in the last two years, if we get certification and a start in production this year, it will have been a much shorter wait than FDA approval.
One can get impatient when viewing a company under a microscope every day. Most investments don't produce over night returns. A good investor can stay up to date with ARSC by checking on news once a week or two. Less stress and the same results. That doesn't hold true for day traders or shorts. Being a penny stock, if something goes south with the company, one can't expect to minimize losses by watching it nonstop. I have a strong belief that the company will pull through and all those with stock at the time will stand to see the "Google" effect. That's a gut feeling. The current energy crisis as some call it just adds to the potential up side and "Google".
Can you see any link between that article and post 8409 ?
It isn't off topic as it is part of ARSC. It is currently a company on paper only to my best knowledge. They are currently too deep in the other ventures to spend money and time on that one.
I have no problem with the term being used in connectin to ARSC. If the company can get to the production stage, it's anyone's guess where it will go. Gas is at $4 right now and not just expected but will go higher. Look at Freon. Once the supply became limited, it went through the roof. We won't run out of oil in our life time but it will happen. Until then, the price of oil will only get higher. Companies like ARSC are our only hope to not only delay the process but also allow us to continue our comfortable life style. At some point you could see people fighting in the streets for gas. I expect that will happen afer the government takes over down the line. It is part of National Security. Is that an open ticket or what. I understand that big oil companies want alternitive energy. They just want to be in charge. They will try to block smaller companies that start making too much noise too fast. ARSC needs to stay under the radar as long as possible. Once the unit is certified,tools are in place and the customers lined up, the chance to be blocked will dwindle. Until then, they have to be paranoid.
During one of the beta demonstrations, It was noted that once the unit passes certification, the beta units would be replaced with certified models. The beta units were test beds for possible improvments. All improvments would be incorporated in the production model and the production model would be covered by insurance unlike the beta unit.
No Contradiction. There was a conversation with Ken by you. You indicated that he said a viewing may be possible in July. I am suggesting that the possible future viewing by you could be a beta or production unit. Since it is in the future, either is possible.
Was there a suggestion by Ken that it would be a production model in July or the beta unit that was first put in?
Moderators might be able to post a list of questions somewhere so we don't have people asking the same thing. The list could be printed out and taken to the meeting. If I go, I will indicated that the list is from the IH board members. Maybe Lowman could decide which questions would most likely receive an answer. The possibility of me going is real at this point. I suggest that cooperation in putting this together could make it happen. A number of questions may be answered before the meeting in PRs. Those could easily be deleted by the moderator. I feel much more comfortable about going with the knowledge that it is an informal event.
Thanks for the input. I am concerned that there hasn't been more.
One can say that is one more concrete reason for certification. Homeowners Insurance.
Let's see. Source of Flammable fuel, Electrical energized source that could ignite said source of Flammable fuel.
Heaters in a house contain about the same things. Check out all the certifications that they have.
Not saying that it can't be done but they have to supply a unit that will be usable to most of the market they are shooting for.
It would be nice to use something like that as a heat pump for heating the house in cold weather. Some type of cooling system to vent heat in the warm weather.
No argument from me on that issue.
I do know they are anxious to atleast start getting units out the door
You might say that about the company but I think that it might be too conservative for investor desires.
A recent call to Ohio Dept Of Economic Development suggested that although American Hydrogen is planning to start hiring later this Summer, the building is not yet occupied.
Ya think that they may have to hire someone first and then put them in the building ? Just pulling people off the road wouldn't be good sense unless it was a food line.
They already have a cushy place at Ohio U. They have a good communication line with Dr. Botte . The beta unit would be a good place to start. They got the building because the deal was there. It wasn't because they were in dire need of a place to sit down. I'm sure that things will get active once production needs surpass the limits of Beaverton. They will have a Hydrogen reformer to use until theirs is on line. I expect that will be maybe a year off. Certification will be needed for it also.
I can say regarding the below,
"While I'm thinking out loud, does anyone know to what degree the units become less efficient over time -- e.g. 5/10/15 years? "
Take pity on my spelling and ,like Yoda, see through it.
The efficiency is dependent on several factors:
As you indicated, the ambient temperature will change it to some degree at the extreem ends.
I am unaware of the effect of constant run times at different loads. I can say that it wouldn't be a mechanical problem as in motors but the amount of fuel consumed increases with load and thus contamination.
The purity of Hydrogen supplied to the unit is the major factor. The specs require a very high purity supply. That amount of purity or better will give the longest run time before the efficiency starts to drop off.The impurities in the gas tend to clog up the membrane and lead to reduced output. As Lowman suggested, Hydra may be able to backflush the unit and remove some of the contamination but not all. Over time, contamination will be the units worst problem.
We don't have any data from lab test so exact numbers are not public as far as I know.
sszzzzzz!
I would hope that since the court ruled in favor of Hydra,and the news just hit the wire this morning, maybe we will see a little more positive action this afternoon.
Lowman, I propose we are both right about reformer certification.
1. I am right. Built from scratch it would have to be certified and the production line would have to be also. Why reinvent the wheel?
2. Other companies produce reformers. As an example I include this link...http://www.electricauto.com/
3. There has been random talk of a joint venture.
4. ARSC could go in with a company that already has a reformer as a joint venture. ARSC would supply the technology of Dr. Botte to make the reformer much more efficent.
5. In return,the other company already has their unit CSA certified and maybe production capacity. I would expect that only paper work and inspection would be necessary to get the change added to the certification. I suggest that the long time frame would no longer exist.
6. Frank would be right in saying that they don't need to get the unit certified.
It seems that all questions and arguments would be resolved.
It's just an idea based on conflicting statments and previous arguments about certification. I'm sure there are other possibilities but I suggest this as one.
You are right about certification of each unit would work. It isn't practical. You would have to send each unit to CSA for certification. They don't do that on site as far as I know.
If you are talking a low number of units,say less than ten and a one time deal, it might fly. We are talking about producing over 50 per month. I am being concervative with that number. With those numbers, the production process would have to be used. I state again, CSA doesn't care whether it is fully automated or one guy is putting the things together in a shop. They want to see a proceedure that shows each and every one will be put together the exact same way.
From the information you were told, they could mean that they are putting in phones and computers. They,as far as I know, don't have a full size beta unit yet and are still working on materials of construction for a full size unit. They will get there but it may take several more months. I'm not sure about the Idea of certificaton of that product also. Even extension cords are UL certified and say in what conditions they can be used. That electrolizer will have to be certified at some point also.
Judge Reviewed the Case on the 11th. My understanding is that He is not granting totally in favor of ARSC. I think that ARSC will get some money back but very little. Relion has to take certain actions by the 26th of June. It seems that we may have to wait till sometime close to the 26. I think that Relion will wait till the last minute to do anything.
That same kind of BS "can't short penny stocks" came up on another board. I guess most holder are small time investors or they would know that all it takes is money and volume. Actually, money isn't an issue to short. It's the covering that sooer or later comes around.
At this point ,installing panic,fear and doubt seems to be more of a company objective. Candid,Clear,Open,Honest. Words that seem to be used very sparingly through PRs. Without a time frame for certification, it doesn't matter if they had a rock solid contract for 15000 units. It's just paperwork. Late last year,maybe December, "we have a PO for so may cells to be deliver by the end of June." later it was mentioned not to worry about the deadline because the PO was not a contract but more of an agreement to buy. Daaaaa
We now get a PR for a wapping 500 cells. It's great news but with no time frame for the certification required to produce these things it becomes an non event. What a difference if Monday they came out and said that the cell is certified and production will commence. To day they come out and say they have a PO for 500 cells. Now that is a PR and in the proper order investors can see money on the next report and growth.
Isn't that what sells stock and drives up pps? Income and growth, what a great pair. My take is that a lot of people were expecting not only an earlier release but one with a lot more bite.
Bottom line is that they don't have a production line if they don't have a producton model. Isn't something someone can produce key to the process? They have to have that to even sell to customers outside of the country. Isn't it amaseing how important " production model" can be ?
Someone has stated that they are waiting on a part to be cast. It is suppose to make the unit maybe less expensive to make or something like that. They have to have a supply of those parts to sell to anyone anywhere.
Production model is key , they have to have a production line to produce the production model. See how that follows. Once completed they would have the option to start selling overseas while the unit and line are being certified. Might I say that the last part would only take a matter of weeks to finish. Bashers are of course not welcome on any board but equal time for different opinions should be very welcome even if not agreed on by a few of the members.
I have a record of trying to be as open minded as possible. At what point does one suggest that the company needs to step up to the plate an answer the hard questions. Ambiguous should not be tollerated by the stock holders. Remember that litigation is "suppose to be" over. Should it matter any more. That crutch is worn out.
You see, there is a great amount of flexability in meaning by using the word "finalized". If it were ready for certification, "The unit is ready for certification.",it would be an easy statment. I said it and it wasn't hard. It becomes a legal issue if they say something that isn't so.
They can't even start on production line certification until they know the process to build the "production unit".
If production line follows the cell, I would expect that they have to be willing at some point to say that they have sent the cell in for certification. That would be transparancy.
CSA states that you can get individual cells certified and stamped but no other cells would carry certification unless individually tested. The production line has to be certified in order for all units comming off that line to automaticly carry the certification stamp. They have no less red tape than anyone else. You see how easily this could drag out for quite some time. Not that it will but if we aren't given any rock solid information,we need to be prepared for that event.
I had the link on my favorits. You can't get any information from them pertaining to the company. You can get general information. Once they receive the cell, my understanding is that it would only tak a matter of a week or two to complete the test.
It isn't nearly as hard to defend opinions as it is a statment as fact. It's a legal thing. One can go into a grey zone when stating an opinion. They don't want to say anything that they may need to defend legally at a later date. This is the approach of most companies when given a pointed question. A direct answer may not be well accepted. A ficticious answer might be " We have a problem with overheating that may at some point cause the unit to catch fire." . Although the unit functions ok and will do what the company said, an issue exist which would make it uncertifiable. Giving that answer,although a truthful answer, would cause many to back out and risk the development needed to fix the problem.
This is ficticious and is only intended as an example as to why an individual may want to give a grey zone opinion instead of a straight answer. JMO.
Is that what you would call "Shorting" in your book?
MMs actually shorting a stock.
I agree that it wasn't Ho Hum news but perception is key.
If they had released the news just after open to mid morning,the momentum would have maybe been to the other side. As it happened, the MMs were able to make something of it and take control. Now we are looking at a PR for cells that can't be produced until certification or they won't carry the stamp. People know that and with certificaion being an unknown, the orders won't bring in anything that will go on the quarterly report as income. If the cells were international, the perception may have been more in thinking that we would see income on the quarter. All of this at a time when a pull back was due and a big event turns out to be a non-event. People keep trying to take light off of certification. It can't be dissmissed and won't go away on it's own. The company has to have it to go anywhere in this country. Word is that they are producing cells right now for international sales. ARSC won't confirm that in a public statment which keeps it as speculation. I expected a PR today but I thought it would be for international sales and could likely cause a start or ramp up of production. I feel that we will see a continued buying trend but I don't feel the need to tighten a seatbelt.
I have a 100% record !!!
Every time I suggest something is about to happen,it doesn't.
It doesn't mean that it won't. It just means that I need to stay away from the Black Jack Table.
It's like the weather. Just give it a while. As long as we get no PR, it's more and more likely to give a retrace.
I've got the shares. All I need is the price.
I also didn't have a clue and I am sure that the company ment it to be that way. The light didn't start shinning in my face until the release in May. No one ever really talked about it and because of the comments I got from management every time I talked with them, I disreguraded it also. It turned out to be a good thing for me because I would have other wise maybe been scared off. I kept buying and buying and buying. The energiser bunny was in charge of shelling out my money into this company.
You are talking to one of the 3 or 4. I'm a long. I buy and hold. I can say that by buying to the down side, I am positioned very well right now and will go green with one more penny added to the pps. Don't take that to mean I will even consider selling anything in the near future.
I got some then. Because of the price,it turned out to be a very small portinon of what I have now. The company has made a lot of progress since then and like then, a lot of people have their eye on this sector. Don't forget how much the price of gas has changed in that time.
Not true. I checked proper sources before posting this. The sources are Federal. I trust that they know what they are doing..
Lakes, What's your current position on ARSC ? It seems that I got a message but it was deleted before I could read it. Things are very tight on this board right now but I think if you still have a position with the company, things will be looking up shortly.