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Biotech isn't like NASCAR. You just don't go tweak something and put back on the track. There is a protocol to follow and trials to finish. It seems you're rather new at this.
From my perspective, 2-73 is running quite smoothly and out ahead of the pack!
Why do we need "better formulations"? We haven't finished testing and trialing what we have... which look pretty damn good at this point!
Agreed... some form of "dilution" is inevitable, but it's nothing that thousands of other successful small biotechs have faced before. It's business.
My point is that a partnership would likely be the preferred path of "dilution", as it gets 2-73 to the party sooner and produces a positive influence on the share price in the near term. I don't think many investors are concerned about the long term of their investment and the ultimate share price, having a partner.
I hope we can put this subject to rest...
R&D resources are not being "diverted away", as you say.
Admin costs are reasonable. The fact that they have very little R&D expense is because the drugs are already designed and being trialed. What R&D they need are being provided by outsourced labs, academia or collaborative orgs. Very careful use of funds, in my opinion.
If you're not soft bashing, then you really need to do better at educating yourself.
Good point!
The source of my confusion...
"The market is expecting Phase III Solanezumab data and Aducanumab titration data, both in December."
What is Aducanumab titration data?
Apologies, I realize this isn't the Biogen MB... just trying to help answer someone's question.
Re: aducanumab and solanezumab Ph3 readouts?
I was WAY wrong... aducanumab trial is still recruiting.
Estimated Primary Completion Date: February 2020 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)
www.ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02477800 or NCT02484547)
I agree, they will surely attend CTAD. I was being a bit facetious. However, IF they don't present, it will be because data and news will have been released before the conference (violating the embargo rules).
If he participates at CTAD, he better have unequivocally good data and big news; otherwise, consider it corporate suicide.
I know, I'm exaggerating a little.
Yeah... just as a geek can't pass up Gencon; a scientist can't pass up a scientific conference. :)
I'd be perfectly fine if they forego CTAD and announce news when THE COMPANY wants to. Perhaps they've learned their lesson about announcing news at scheduled events...as it plays into the shorting cabal's hands.
But more likely, it will be a late-breaking entry.
The MTA with Biogen is just the tip of the iceberg... much more going on behind the scenes.
Pretty lame article with some inaccurate soft bashing thrown in, as well as referring to AVXL as an OTC stock. Wake up!
At least it recognizes the prospects for success.
I would imagine that we're only seeing the very tip of the iceberg. You just have to know there is much more going on: data sharing, MOU and other exchanges/negotiations for Biogen to try to keep Anavex interested in partnering, when the test results are confirmed.
You can bet that Dr. M is playing this very well. When it's all said and done, he will have demonstrated to have earned his salary and each and every one of his option shares.
There might possibly be another contributing factor, but the primary issue is that drugs designed to target beta-amyloid plaque (a symptom) are proving to be ineffective in and of themselves.
Most definitely, sir!
In other words, for microcap biotechs, manipulation makes the "market"...
That absolutely makes ZERO sense!
You are either misinterpreting the filing or purposely twisting the information.
The reality is that it will likely not ever be tapped!
$14.81 is not an "assumption"; it's an implicit valuation based on the maximum value of the shelf ($100M) and the maximum number of shares (6.75M). IF the shelf is EVER accessed, the actual value of the issuance will be somewhere between the min and max.
Case closed!
6.75M shares IS the total...
I think you're confused...
The typical issuance is a maximum of 50k sh/day, no more frequent than every other day, at market value... i.e. an ATM type of funding.
The accelerated clause allows for up to 6.75M shares (or the balance) at a minimum share price of $3 (or ~$20M). The maximum amount of the shelf is $100M, which equates to a max share price of $14.81.
Macfarlane is not a doctor; he's an associate professor, who does seem to be focused on Alzheimer's.
Max share price is more like $14.81 ($100,000,000 / 6,750,000 shares)
Absolutely, that is what positively impacts the share price in the near term, sending it much higher. This is the better path for, both, the company and shareholders.
It comes down to tradeoffs...
If they go it alone, they have to dilute to raise funds, but ultimately keep 100% of earnings. This path causes a drag on the share price until FDA approval.
If they partner to generate funds, that has an immediate positive affect on the share price, but revenue sharing will reduce the earnings for Anavex.
I think as investors, most would prefer the path that supports short-term share price. The long term will take care of itself.
NO DILUTION! At least not here or anytime soon.
Partnership and/or grants, plus current funds will keep trials going.
Agree with your line of thinking. There's a lot of activity going on now with the stock...appears to be controlled accumulation.
Excellent post! Thanks!
Agreed! There's much more to this than meets the eye! And the other shoe is about to drop...
I'd like to know if any of Anavex's scientists are collaborating with Biogen on these tests. It would help the relationship and further the understanding of 2-73's MoA and its scope.
MS is a safe area for Biogen to begin its testing, since Anavex is not focusing its efforts there, while at the same time not discrediting abucanumab's progress on Alz (at least not initially).
I wonder if Biogen might be secretly evaluating 2-73 for other indications (i.e. Alz) in its other labs.
So many questions...
Though a partnership may be in the offing with Biogen, I think it is "putting their toes in the water" with testing as a first step. Afterall, partnering now would admit failure with their Alz drug. This gives them time to gain insights within their own environment.
Rett's for sure...Parkinson's could be the other. Both have potential funding sources.
Missling just received 500k options and several others received 100k, each, with a strike price of $3.25. They already renewed Missling's contract in July, along with stock options with strike prices of 6.25 and 7.05. This appears to be additional, likely tied to performance. It might just be YE bonus options, but don't those usually come AFTER year end (after Sept)? The question is, what milestones did they accomplish? Was it just drug development (trials, etc.) or might it include a partnership? Why now, before YE? Seems they could have waited until next month, unless they wanted to issue them while the price is low, and before some material news. We should know soon...
I believe you're referring to the shareholders' meeting in May, where about a dozen of us shareholders were in attendance.
If I were Dr M, and I had additional news available, I'd PR them in succession to catch the short cabal off guard, not allowing them time to drop the price, while generating more attention and demand for shares. Two or three PRs in a row would certainly cause a massive short squeeze and draw the much needed attention to help sustain an elevated SP. I think the doctor is mindful of the SP (and the nefarious cabal) and will hopefully execute in a manner that's most beneficial to the company and shareholders.
That's my wish anyway...
You need to try harder because the price keeps going up...
I agree 100%. This seems a bit frothy just based on today's PR, even though we've been way oversold. However, there could also be some additional pin action from yesterday's financial conference helping to drive it up.
Connecting the dots after the fact, it's rather obvious:
* price started its run-up weeks before the conference, aided by the cabal.
* short interest rose dramatically (4M+ shares) and brokerages paying high interest rates to borrow more shares for shorting.
* attack happened within a minute of the PR release.
If everyone was expecting great data, then why all the shorting going into the conference?
It doesn't get anymore obvious than that, especially when the data was considered encouraging.
Yep, and even as we're up 31% today, we're still way oversold.