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Sorry to paste all of it on here but it's the only way I could do it I couldn't copy the link.
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Fuel Cell's Future Looks Bright But Buying The Shares Is A Leap Of Faith
Jan. 19, 2018 4:06 AM • FCEL
Summary
The company is experiencing an impressive acceleration in business development.
The market opportunities for Fuel Cell are potentially tremendous.
However, its finances are murky and it isn't at all clear when the cash bleed is going to stop, at least not to us.
So investing here constitutes a bit of a leap of faith.
Lately, there has been a resurgence in the interest and uptake of fuel cell-based energy projects, as we discussed in articles on Ballard (NASDAQ:BLDP), Plug Power (PLUG) and Hydrogenics (HYGS).
All these companies experienced a significant rise in revenues, and the company we're going to discuss here, Fuel Cell (FCEL) isn't an exception. Fuel Cell services four segments:
Distributed generation increases grid resiliency and reliability.
Emissions, reduction, and de-carbonization for power generation.
Distributed hydrogen to reduce transmission emissions.
Long duration energy storage to support the increased penetration of intermittent renewables.
From the Q4CC slides
Korea
The company has completed the delivery of a 20MW power plant for South Korea in December, a first for the company in this country. Management believes that this will lead to more opportunities here and it is a "large near-term market opportunity" per Q4CC:
We see sizeable opportunities for multi megawatt fuel cell parks with the country's top utilities. Our customer for this first project, Korea Southern Power Company or KOSPO owns nine gigawatts of generation assets alone, and this is their first fuel cell project. The government's renewable portfolio standard or RPS obligates the country's 18 largest power generators to achieve the RPS requirements in their generation or purchase offsetting renewable energy certificates, which is driving increased activity in our direction. Our team is actively pursuing many opportunities in this market.
US projects
Projects in the US are somewhat different from those like the Korea project, according to management during the Q4CC:
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The business models for our markets in South Korea and the U.S. are complementary. In Korea, the transactions tend to be outright equipment sales with short execution cycles and long-term service agreements. The KOSPO project used existing inventory and generated near-term cash flow. In the U.S., we financed projects with long-term power purchase agreements, and either retain them in our generation portfolio or sell them to investors. These projects provide consistent long-term cash flows.
One of these projects, a 7.4MW power plant for CMEEC, a utility in Connecticut, was executed in October.
Earlier in the year, there were 40MW of awards from LIPA (Long Island Power Authority). Here is management again (Q4CC):
The company does have optionality in whether we retain or sell these projects, the financial profile of the projects are very strong with good, long term cash flows. It's obviously been an objective of the company to retain -- selectively retain projects on balance sheet to have those long-term cash flows.
Good cash flow is what they urgently need, that's for sure but building these LIPA projects will only take place in the 2019-2020 time frame.
Tri-generation
The company has also developed something promising, a fuel cell power plant that generates excess hydrogen which can be used in transportation, its so called SureSource Hydrogen tri-generation solution. From the Dept of Energy:
Fuel Cell recently accomplished an offtake agreement with Toyota (NYSE:TM) from its Port of Long Beach tri-generation plant. Management noted during the Q4CC:
Our multi megawatt SureSource hydrogen solution will be supplying Toyota with affordable renewal hydrogen and is a template for future projects. The roadmap for mass deployment of these tri-generation systems in the hub and spoke fuelling infrastructure is gaining global interest from utility companies and others. Spending for these systems will accelerate to match the demand for fuel cell electric vehicles.
The 2.5MW plant produces roughly 1200kg a day, which would serve 300 cars a day. A little later management had this to add:
There is other people that are in the fuel cell electric vehicle business clearly supporting it, such as Honda and Hyundai. But the true leader in this is clearly Toyota. Having close the first project with Toyota, I think it's safe to say that we are working closely to them on a global deployment strategy here. And I don’t want to say anything more than that.
That sounds pretty promising, and it is an interesting concept, we have to admit. And the involvement of Toyota, the leading fuel cell car manufacturer in the world, gives it added credibility.
Energy storage
Reliable energy storage is the holy grail in alternative power generation as it is necessary to overcome the intermittent nature of alternative sources like wind and solar.
The company has developed a long-term storage solution for this market, from Q4CC:
Based on the reversible solid oxide fuel cell technology, our solution converts excess power during periods of low power demand into hydrogen and energy carrier, stores our hydrogen onsite for long periods of time and then uses this as a fuel source to generate clean power when needed during times of high power demand.
Battery storage is usually short-term storage, so this is a different market proposition as it covers both short-term and long-term storage, an advantage in situations where longer-term storage is warranted, not only to cover night time (when solar panels do not generate power) but cloudy days.
A problem is that storage isn't usually financiable, that is, utilities have to keep the plants on the books. The company is working on a solution with partners.
And needless to say, the hydrogen produced can, instead of being used as storage, also be used for the transport sector, lowering the cost of storage. So this could be an attractive proposition for utilities, it's like the tri-generation model.
Carbon capture
The company is initiating a carbon capture facility in Alabama with Exxon Mobil (XOM). This is a fairly small pilot project of some 2.7MW, but the company expects this to lead to other, larger projects.
The "end game," as management called it would be projects of a much larger size between 100MW and 300MW per site. Here is Exxon describing the technology (also see the video in the link):
ExxonMobil scientist Tim Barckholtz thinks so. Along with FuelCell Energy, Barckholtz and his team at ExxonMobil are tapping the power of utility-scale fuel cells to capture carbon emissions. The process is promising because, unlike other carbon capture technologies, the fuel cells would capture the emissions from a natural gas-fueled plant and generate additional power, rather than consume it.
On paper at least, this is a brilliant idea, Fuel Cell management has this to add on the Q4CC:
Concentrating carbon dioxide is a normal side reaction for our proprietary fuel cell’s electrochemical generation process. Because it simultaneously captures carbon dioxide and generates power, ours is a truly affordable capture solution and a potential game changer in the industry. Our system can capture 90% of the CO2 and destroy 70% of NOx from a plant’s emission stream.
The endorsement by Exxon is of course a huge boost and the project should be up and running in 2018/19. And here is Cowen spelling out the opportunities (from Bloomberg, our emphasis):
Cowen researchers don’t include it in revenue forecasts for FuelCell because they “always assumed it was one of many futuristic growth options,” Osborne said. For FuelCell Energy, the market opportunity could be huge. Capturing 90 percent of the emissions at just 1 percent of U.S. coal plants would require 2,160 megawatts of fuel cells, equal to about $6.5 billion in sales and $9.7 billion in service revenue, Osborne estimates. The company posted sales of $108 million in fiscal 2016.
Huge indeed.
Growth
As you can see below, the company has had some quite difficult years:
But in the second half of 2017, a recovery of sorts is taking place as Q4 revenue was a whopping 95.7% higher compared to Q4 2016. This looks set to continue, if not downright accelerate, from management during the Q4CC (our emphasis):
In the last six months since July, FuelCell Energy has been awarded approximately $1.2 billion worth of projects. Only a portion of this amount has been recognized as part of our backlog. The remainder, comprised of more than $1 billion worth of project awards has not yet been recognized as backlog. We're currently working with these customers on finalizing contracts and expect them to be converted to backlog in 2018.
If they can indeed convert these projects into backlog, or even half of it that would be quite a turnaround. For 2018, management is optimistic, from the Q4CC:
Near term opportunities for 2018 include RFPs in Connecticut with the potential procurement of over 100 megawatts as well as RFPs and projects in Korea and California, totaling tens of megawatts. Global demand for emissions reductions and decarbonization solutions is growing.
Finances
Whilst revenues were 95.7% higher in the quarter than those a year ago, operating cost were unchanged. Still, despite this remarkable feat, there was nevertheless a substantial loss of $10.8M or $0.17 per share, a decline from the $13.7M loss in Q4 2016.
Adjusted EBITDA improved from -$9.5M to -$5M. There are several reasons to expect near-term improvements though:
Continued revenue growth.
The company at present has 11MW of projects on its balance sheet, but this is going to rise to 30MW (see quote below).
The increases in working capital will reverse in Q1 2018, as these were due to the Korean project.
Operating expenses will remain in the $11M-$12M quarterly range.
The company will shift its fuel cell module conditioning activities from Danbury to Torrington, Connecticut, which will result in lower manufacturing cost.
Their production facility suffered from low utilization and only recently ramped back up to 25MW (from 15MW).
All of their project going forward are calculated without the Investment Tax Credit, which actually survived the recent tax reform.
Management about those projects on the books in 2018 (Q4CC):
we have 11.2 megawatts of operating assets. We currently have 19.5 megawatts under construction in various stages of construction. As I mentioned, we have coupled it and we show the picture of the SureSource 4000 in Danbury, that’s very close to being commissioned. That’s our first 50% efficient fuel cell write down the street from here. So that’s close to being done. We have a project in California, Tulare, which is close to being done and then other projects in various stages of construction. So yes, if you add up the 11.2 and the 19.5 that’s in the 30 range, as you mentioned.
However, the company doesn't provide any guidance for revenues or profits (losses, more likely) because they do not know whether to keep projects on the books or to sell them.
That is a bit of a tricky question, management argues that these projects generate good returns and cash flow, but they tie up capital and financing. They could be choosy here, and keep the best projects on their books.
But their books are still in a bit of a mess. While the company has $87.4M in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash on their books, they also have $78M of debt and $29M in short-term debt (plus the current part of their long-term debt). Their GAAP margins are pretty poor:
And the company is still bleeding cash:
Which is why the company had to rely on large debt and equity financing:
Last year only the share count almost doubled.
Then there are the preferred shares (FCELB), which pays a 5% coupon, but a double-digit yield now. See SA contributor Norman Roberts for a discussion of these preferred shares. From the 10-K:
We have 105,875 shares of our 5% Series B Cumulative Convertible Perpetual Preferred Stock (Liquidation Preference $1,000.00 per share) (“Series B Preferred Stock”) authorized for issuance. As of October 31, 2017 and 2016, there were 64,020 shares of Series B Preferred Stock issued and outstanding.
A dividend of $50 per share a year amounts to $3.2M a year. Then there is more. Recently, the company issued preferred stock (Series C), from the 10-K:
We issued an aggregate of 33,500 shares of our Series C Convertible Preferred Stock ( “Series C Preferred Stock” and, such shares, the “Series C Preferred Shares” ), $0.01 par value and $1,000 stated value per share for net proceeds of $27.9 million on September 5, 2017. Each share of Series C Preferred Stock was sold at a price of $895.52 for gross proceeds of approximately $30.0 million. As of October 31, 2017, there were 33,300 shares of Series C Preferred Stock issued and outstanding.
These shares pay a 15% coupon and are convertible at $1.84. Then there are these:
We have 1,000,000 Class A Cumulative Redeemable Exchangeable Preferred Shares (the “Series 1 Preferred Shares”) issued and outstanding. The Series 1 Preferred Shares were issued by FCE Ltd., one of our wholly-owned subsidiaries. We have guaranteed the obligations of FCE Ltd. under the Series 1 Preferred Shares.
The terms of the Series 1 Preferred Shares require (i) annual dividend payments of Cdn. $500,000 and (ii) annual return of capital payments of Cdn. $750,000. These payments commenced on March 31, 2011 and will end on December 31, 2020. Dividends accrue at a 1.25% quarterly rate on the unpaid principal balance, and additional dividends will accrue on the cumulative unpaid dividends (inclusive of the Cdn. $12.5 million unpaid dividend balance as of the modification date) at a rate of 1.25% per quarter, compounded quarterly. On December 31, 2020, the amount of all accrued and unpaid dividends on the Series 1 Preferred Shares of Cdn. $21.1 million and the balance of the principal redemption price of Cdn. $4.4 million shall be paid to the holders of the Series 1 Preferred Shares. FCE Ltd. has the option of making dividend payments in the form of common stock or cash under the terms of the Series 1 Preferred Shares.
The company paid $9.2M in Q4 in interest expense, from the 10-K:
Interest expense for the years ended October 31, 2017 and 2016 was $9.2 million and $5.0 million, respectively. The increase results from borrowings under the Company's Loan and Security Agreement with Hercules and interest expense related to sale-leaseback transactions recorded under the finance method. The interest expense for the years ended October 31, 2017 and 2016 includes interest for the amortization of the redeemable preferred stock of a subsidiary fair value discount of $2.0 million and $1.8 million, respectively.
Instead of a buyback plan, the company has a sales plan where it is authorized to sell shares at the open market, from the 10-K:
There has been some uptick in its valuation multiple recently:
But two times sales for a company that is still bleeding large amounts of cash isn't cheap.
Verdict
There can be little doubt that the company is turning the corner in terms of sales. We also have little doubt that they are faced with tremendous opportunities, not only in power generation, but they have some innovative solutions with tri-generation, carbon capture and storage. The company already has a tremendous amount of backlog and even much bigger project wins.
There are (at least) two big caveats though. One is the scaling up necessary to service that backlog, let alone the ramp necessary if the $1.2B in project wins are actually converted into backlog.
The second is the continued cash bleed. On the one hand, this is likely to reduce given the acceleration in business development, but on the other hand, they are likely to need more cash in order to be able to deliver these.
That is, further dilution still seems very likely to us in addition to the dilutive instruments already out. It's likely that this is going to subside at some stage, and that could very well be sooner than many people might think. But without even the company guiding, it is pretty hard to make any firm predictions.
Taking a position here could be very lucrative, given the distinct business acceleration, but it's a bit of a leap of faith.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Well everybody has an opinion and since people are sharing theirs I will share mine. But the fact is without being informed we will never know and even if we were informed we wouldn't know if it was the hundred percent truth. If you were to leave on good terms I would assume they would have been some formal announcement. So my guess is it was not on great terms. I just looked at the company he went to and they had 2 billion dollars in Revenue in 2016 with 6100 employees. He's likely getting more money with a company that doesn't have any concerns about commercialization. My guess is there were also concerns about how effective he was doing in his job at fuel cell. He may have seen the signs on the wall suggesting it was time to move on.
Interesting. I wonder what that movie was all about. And I wonder if he retained any of the stock
Good idea I thought about it but I figured I would ask on the message board first. Thanks
Canadian oil sands, I'll ask again in a separate post so it's not over looked to see if anyone has any information. I was thinking yesterday since I couldn't find anything and updates are way past due, Exxon put the kibosh on it. My thought is they wanted to have an exclusive relationship with fuel cell to bring the best CCS option to Market. In my research recently I found that the Rockefellers or at least some of them are trying to bring suit to ExxonMobil regarding covering up the damage they have reportedly been aware of being caused to the environment due to their business. So they want to be number one in bringing a solution to the public and I believe they're going to push this faster than anyone thinks. Will certainly find out within the next year. But again the original question was has anyone heard any updates since last summer on the Canadian oil sands in regard to fuel cells carbon capture
Yes I agree and waiting 3 to 9 months seems trivial after waiting as long as I
have. But People's ignorance just get to me after a while and some things will just never make sense. Just like all the things in the life's not fair category. As long as the first quarter report on March 6th comes back better than expected by analysts then we will have two beats in a row. That should definitely push us up past Plug Power if not Ballard.
Question for everyone. Has anyone heard anything about the Canadian oil sands carbon capture project? That was supposed to begin over a year ago and I can't find anything on it since mid 2017.
No it's definitely not for the faint of heart and it's apparently not for the very intelligent either. Or the intelligent people that have money just haven't taken the time to consider it because it's not over $5 yet. This is still undervalued buy one to 200% compared to plug in the Ballard. At some point within the next year regardless of how it happens but hopefully it won't be from Ballard and plug going down, fuel cell will be the clear leader with the highest price per share. And at least an equal valuation if not higher valuation.
This new news report might turn into something big also. If you recall when they came out with the California approval for the 1.4 megawatt shortly afterwards I think a month later they came out with a deal with Toyota
Sorry I don't know how all of that got on there I only tried to copy the one paragraph that showed price-to-book value for Fuel Cell Energy versus the rest of the stocks they compete with
Returns and Valuations for FuelCell Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FCEL)
FuelCell Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FCEL), maintained return on investment for the last twelve months at -18.77, higher than what Reuters data shows regarding industry’s average. The average of this ratio is 12.26 for the industry and sector’s best figure appears 34.33. FuelCell Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FCEL), at its latest closing price of $1.98, it has a price-to-book ratio of 1.36, compared to an industry average at 2.84. A lower P/B ratio could mean that the stock is undervalued. This ratio also gives some idea of whether you’re paying too much for what would be left if the company went bankrupt immediately.
FuelCell Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FCEL), stock is trading $2.49 above the 52-week high and has displayed a high EPS growth of 20.10% in last 5 years. The 1 year EPS growth rate is -36.90% . Its share price has decline -8.76% in three months and is up 15.12% for the last five trades. The average analysts gave this company a mean recommendation of 2.20.
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Currently there's only one analysts that has projections for the first quarter which should be released on March 8th. Those earnings expectations are for a loss of $0.18 a share. they don't mention what they expect for Revenue but I'm fairly confident they are assuming about 25 million. We should beat again on revenue and on earnings per share based on completion of the balance of the South Korean project. I'm also guessing that our revenue from Power production is going to maintain consistency or get better so let's assume about 1.8 million from power generation. Let's also assume that we are going to make at least what we did from the maintenance contracts since maintenance contracts were down for the fourth quarter. Revenue should certainly come in over 25 million and I believe the margins are actually going to be better in the first quarter than they were in the 4th quarter. That would give us two quarters in a row where we beat earnings estimates. If that doesn't draw some real attention then I will again be shocked by the investing public. I'm pretty confident but if not before March 8th after March 8th analysts will be revising their 12-month targets.
I could have just written everybody needs to check out the videos on YouTube but I've been suggested in the past to post a link. There are more videos on there but here are two of them that I have not seen
Ty. Isn't it funny how dusan is a South Korean company working in the United States competing with Fuel Cell Energy and fuel cell energy is working in South Korea competing with them. Now that I look at it dusan is probably our biggest competitor.
Borough, company have hopes for fuel cell project
My Citizens News
I tried to copy paste the link unfortunately I couldn't but if you Google that I'm sure you'll see it. It's a different company submitting an RFP for Naugatuck Valley. In the article they already claimed to have one at a wastewater treatment plant which I was surprised to hear. However it won't be long until everyone knows that Fuel Cell Energy is the best
My sentiments exactly!! However that's for people that aren't as informed as we are. Just figured if the public is aware of that along with many other news updates we should at least be headed in that direction. That is a 12-month price Target and I'm much more optimistic than that as you already know. We should be well on our way to $3 it's by the time the first quarter conference call comes out and that's only 2 months away. If we just do what we are supposed to do by summer time then we should be much higher than $4 by the September conference call. And that's without any new developments
This could actually be a big influence to use fuel cells if people actually put two and two together.
19 3'
New Study Looks At Managing Grid Frequency Fluctuations From Renewables
January 12th, 2018 by Steve Hanley
The electrical grid is not something most people think about. Flip the switch, the lights come on. If they don’t, call the electric company. End of story. But the grid is actually a hugely complex organism, one that requires close attention to keep the electricity flowing at the right voltage and frequency.
Frequency is a concept unknown to most people. Alternating current flows first one way and then the other. The number of times a second that transition takes place is expressed in hertz. In Europe, the standard is 50 hertz. In North America, it is 60 hertz. The name comes from Heinrich Rudolf Hertz, the first person to provide conclusive proof of the existence of electromagnetic waves. Frequency stability is important because fluctuations can interfere with the proper operation of many electronic devices.
It is common to hear people say that renewables like solar and wind disrupt the grid because they vary in voltage and frequency depending on wind speed and cloud cover. There are also concerns about microgrids disrupting the stability of the larger utility grid. Researchers at the Juelich Research Center and the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization in Germany have studied the electrical grids in Europe, Japan, and the US, and come up with some surprising findings.
“The first surprise was that the grid showed particularly strong fluctuations every 15 minutes,” says Dirk Witthaut of the Juelich Institute of Energy and Climate Research.”This is the exact time frame during which generators on the European electricity market agree on a new distribution for the electricity generated — this alters how much electricity is fed into the grid, and where. In Europe at least, power trading therefore plays a key role in balancing grid frequency fluctuations.”
Second, the researchers found that frequency fluctuations did not follow the mathematically predicted model. Instead, they tend to be larger than expected. Are renewables responsible for that difference in behavior? The study found that renewables do in fact lead to greater grid fluctuations. “For example, the share of wind and solar generation in the United Kingdom is much higher than in the USA, leading to greater fluctuations in grid frequency,” explains Witthaut. Based on their research, the scientists recommend increased investment in primary controls and demand controls.
What surprised the researches was that fluctuations from power trading were larger than those from renewables. In other words, the grid is already dealing with frequency fluctuations that are larger than those caused by renewables.
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Next, the scientists turned their attention to microgrids, and what they found is not such good news. “Our study indicates that dividing large and thus very slow grids — such as the synchronous grid of Continental Europe — into microgrids will cause larger frequency fluctuations,” says Benjamin Schaefer of the Max Planck Institute. “Technically, microgrids are therefore only an option if today’s very stringent frequency standards were to be relaxed.”
Relaxing those standards would require a significant redesign of many electronic devices and could damage existing equipment. That finding suggests better ways of managing frequency fluctuations will be needed before a distributed grid composed of many microgrids can become a reality.
Tags: demand control, electrical grid, frequency fluctuation, Juelich Research Center, Max Planck Institute, microgrid, primary control
About the Author
Steve Hanley
Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island. You can follow him on Google + and on Twitter.
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I wonder if anybody we'll take the time to figure out that fuel cells don't have the fluctuations that wind and solar do and make that point.
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Support level??
Any strong opinions. I'm thinking and hoping 196 or 193. No reason for it to go below that unless there's just a bunch of morons that aren't considering it's going to be at least $3 in less than 2 months if not $4.
Thanks fsul I must have missed that because I was interrupted by a phone call for 5 minutes during the conference call. I switched over because it was a customer that I needed to speak with. That's good news. I think today is more important for the short-term then yesterday was. As far as investors go. Because if the stock continues to go upwards that's better for the short-term and long-term. I will be disgusted if it pulls back. Draw four more interest the higher we get and we bring our market cap up continuing to draw interest then when we get more news it's no balls. And doubling from $3 is much better than doubling from $2. So I am just as anxious to see what happens today and Tuesday and I was yesterday. I can't imagine it going below $2 after the quarterly report. However sometimes what this stock does shocks me so we'll see.
Yes I heard that but nothing about beacon falls.
I agree with most of what you said and thank you for your interpretation. However I think they weren't specific or more forthcoming because they would rather not make an inappropriate statement or a wrong statement and you are always better off to under-promise and over perform. But why give guidance that slower than people would think they should just to or perform that wouldn't be good either so don't give any guidance at all I think that was a smart move just to keep the stock stable and then have it go up like it should on good news. I think we have a slow ride towards $3 with another good quarter report in March resulting in $4 at some point by the end of the spring without any other significant news.
However if we lock in the Long Island agreement or anything else substantial we will go way past $4 by mid March.
Just read the entire report based on just that alone it will close between $2 and $2.50 today. My guess is after the conference call and has potential to go up $3 by Tuesday. But they clearly State the rest of the money from the delivery to Korea will be in by the end of the first quarter and they're clearly improving the profit margin and improving their monthly Revenue FaceTime power purchase agreements. They should be next quarter also which will definitely Drive the stock over $4 by mid March. Pending there's no other positive developments or good news.
$47.9 million loss of $.17 beat by $.03 and revenue up $22 million
And if we simply collect all of the money from the South Korea order for 20 megawatts that gives us enough Revenue to beat previous expectations for both quarters. Now combine the increasing Revenue we are getting from the power purchase agreements and all of our service contracts. This is very exciting I can't wait to see the numbers tomorrow and I hope I'm not disappointed once again
At the very least we are going to go up and gain traction throughout the year. Absolute worst case scenario we double between now and the end of the year but I see it being much much greater than that. I have no doubts at all about that but I'm hoping we actually hit $10 or more. And I don't see any reason why we won't as long as we secure funding for the project we already have.
Obviously being up is a good thing. Unfortunately we will not know the real story until the conference call tomorrow though. Unless they give all of the answers that I have questions about regarding the current pending contracts. That tells the real story of where we are headed in the coming months. Seems to be I may have been wrong or off a little bit but in a good way this time so far. Usually I'm off a little bit but to the bad side. This time I said fuel cell will probably be somewhere in the 180s prior to the earnings release by the end of the day today. Seems as though we may actually push over 190. Just hope for some sort of a beat on revenue and earnings per share.
I have been accumulating after down turns for years and keep thinking soon, but never felt as strong about it as now. Perfect storm. The only question is funding!! We need to validate how these projects are getting funded and it's definitely to the moon. It will blow by Plug then very shortly (within months) thereafter Ballard. LI, Toyota, Exxon, Canadian oil sands, Navy base, S. Korea, expansion nearing completion, hiring many recently, and Beacon Falls will happen. We need $$$$. Chip needs to identify how LI is getting funded, no general statement like "funding is not going to be a problem".
I knew Bldp was looking toward $5, and even $5.50 if next quarter is good $5.50 is a walk in the park. But, like I said, far more % upside potential with FCEL and ultimately with verification of funding will pass Ballard within months!! Less than 24 hours for numbers the Q & A in just over 24 hours is the moment I've been waiting for. Im sure many of you have too. But to those of us sticking over ten years, here we finally go. And to all, good luck. Chip has to be right once in a while
Yes he does! However the funny thing is a complete blowout quarter would only lead to about maybe a hundred percent gain. And I'm not complaining I would be happy with a hundred percent gain right now it's definitely better than a loss or no gain. But if this were Plug Power and they had this kind of stuff going on with this kind of income potential and they blew out a quarter, stock would go crazy three to four times where it's at. We'll find out soon enough but like I said I'm looking for $4 by mid March.
This is a neat video you should watch it it's not just about fuel cell cars.
https://www.google.com/aclk?sa=L&ai=DChcSEwiMkcfd6cvYAhXbgrMKHfS3BxUYABAAGgJxbg&sig=AOD64_1Uc81-pq5P2377zArMgHd4jIEbgA&q=&ved=0ahUKEwiylb_d6cvYAhUxleAKHdF1DK04ChDRDAhv&adurl=
Sorry. Meant to say movement that may not really last. And quarterly report. Not Court. I will try to take my time to proofread before I post. Sorry
Yes but like I posted yesterday we may get movement it's not going to last Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. If there's nothing really significant in the court of the report the conference call may have a significant impact. You can bet your bottom dollar I'll be tuned in. I only had a few hundred dollars is available to do anything with so I bought some extra shares today. That combined with all my other little purchases over the past few months will give me some decent spending money and not deplete my long-term investment. Really planning on hitting at least that $4 mark by mid March unless they really screwed up this time.
Yes I have gotten a kick out of that line when entering this website ever since they sign the contract with Toyota. However I don't know if anyone recalls the contract they had with Air Products several years back in California. They open the station with a fuel cell at a wastewater treatment plant that provides the power at the wastewater treatment plant as well as creating hydrogen for the fuel cell vehicle refueling station. I haven't heard nor seen anything about that in years.
I believe you misinterpreted I may have had a text error or type O because I voice text most of my stuff but the analysts are expecting 25.4. I'm expecting more. And if we beat by more than a couple of million it should have a fairly decent impact on the stock. As well as if we beat by more than a few pennies on Lost per share. I don't see any significant difference unless there's a big beat. But if we do get a big beat and they make the future look bright and cheery we could see a run up over that $4 price Target a couple of analysts have.
They said $40-$50 million equivalent in 4th Qtr to S. Korea.
Likely no news prior to ER, and will get movement after ER based on revenue and pps quickly if there is any significant difference than expected. Expect loss of $.18-$.22 with revenue of $25.4 Million. Anything deviating more than $1 million either direction should cause some movement or $.01 over or under -$.20 per share. Unless numbers are very different ( like a couple million beat or miss, or $.03 or greater off of $.20) the real movement, or lasting or continued movement will be determined by the conference call discussion. Even though Fuel Cell companies in general are not trusted for what's said, the direction of the price Friday and the following weeks will be more effected by the call. Like I said, unless there is a bigger miss or beat. I'm very optimistic about bigger beat but that's trusting the delivered and were paid for S. Korea!! We have Q1 earnings release early March too. So I'm hoping if not Thursday, we aren't too far off numbers and March will be the $ from S. Korea. I'll take 1/2 ($30 + million) in the 4th and 1/2 in 1st quarter. If we beat 2 quarters in a row, it's definitely to the moon. The "real investors" believe when 2 consecutive quarters are good. That's why I'm watching Ballard. They got 1 and follow FCEL I think in about 1 month. 2 more trading days!!!