FuelCell Energy Inc (FCEL)

[Hoghead7]

No I think everybody thinks this is a company issue in the management issue and to me it's not. It's all the other people would miss representation in misinterpretations that's making the stock do what it's doing right now. I'm sure chip has reviewed with the board what their plan of attack is and how they're going to get there. Don't plan for quite some time now has been to build a recurring Revenue through Power purchase agreements which means our current revenue is going to be disappointing. Fuel cell energy has not given guidance on revenue or earnings for a long time now because they knew this. Poor people keep snatching numbers out of the are guessing. Those guesses are hurting because people are taking those guesses literally. For example the first quarter Revenue was 39 million dollars with a loss of $0.17 a share. How can any analyst or anyone suggest they are going to have 20 and a half million Revenue and achieve the same $0.17 a share of loss. that makes no sense whatsoever. They did have a 4.2 million dollar charge for dividends paid to Preferred shareholders in the second quarter. that messed up the numbers a little bit also but it was a one-time charge because the stock was below $1.84. however there will be another one time charge similar if the stock closes below $1.84 this quarter. They also had to write off a $400,000 loss on some product that was a one-time write-off. So there's four point six million dollars in losses they weren't counting on. But there's still no way the 20 and a half million dollar Revenue the analysts projected could equal a $0.17 a share of loss. they had a $0.12 a share loss on 49 million in the fourth quarter last year. they still beat on Revenue by about a million dollars. They have more cash on hand than ever and they have more backlog than ever. Some people including myself were expecting or hoping for more than 22.2 megawatts from Connecticut. but no one seems to have put that into perspective. We have only had orders for 20 megawatts twice in our history. What's recently for South Korea which was a great cash infusion very quickly of over 60 million dollars. And the other time was on the 59 megawatt project in South Korea. People are interpreting the filing as them selling stock and diluting shares immediately and that is not the case at all. These shares would be just like the Shelf registration shares they had before which gives them the ability to get money if and when they need it. The refinancing deal with Hercules Capital requires that they always maintain at least 50% of the loan value at all times in available cash. And they have several big projects lined up right now. This filing is for them to be able to sell stock at the current market price whatever that may be if they decide to do so. And the only reason they would do so would be to build a project such as Long Island or Beacon Falls. The nearing the final stages of the power purchase agreement contracts with Long Island. They may need to prove that they have the available funds in order to fulfill the contracts. That filing would do just that then the power purchase agreements would be signed very shortly afterwards. This is the perfect storm lining up and everybody thinks chip has no idea what he's doing because the stock continues to resist going up. But the stock struggles are related to many people not understanding what's going on and many people trying to short the stock and make money because they know the stock has potential and they can make quick money. They also have several projects in construction phase right now that will be completed before the end of the third quarter which is the end of July. B those will be paid for giving us a substantial amount of Revenue. We also have the final 15% payment from South Korea for the 20 megawatt project equaling approximately 11 million. Patience is the key right now. Lastly the focus has been building power generation Revenue which is recurring revenue and has three times the margins of a straight-up sale. Much much better off for the company in the long run. And once they have 25 megawatts of power generation they will be a net break even from that alone. We will be more than halfway there by the end of the third quarter. Currently our power generation is seven to eight million dollars a year of recurring Revenue. When we finalize the power purchase agreements for Long Island owning all of it they're going to release what the numbers will be. That's going to result in / 62 megawatts of power generation. You should see the big picture on that. We will likely be a net break even on power generation alone in about a year. So that means sometime in the next few quarters we will have a net positive quarter based on power generation combined with other Revenue. If we just continue the slow steady pace we will grow almost at the rate that I expected. My price target for September is still $5. The only thing that would prevent that is people having their head too far up their ass. Understand it.