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"entities should not be multipied beyond necessity"
A SINGLE LARGE, OKAY MONSTEROUS FIELD??????
Occam's Razor (also spelled Ockham's Razor) is a principle attributed to the 14th-century English logician and Franciscan friar William of Ockham. Originally a tenet of the reductionist philosophy of nominalism, it is more often taken today as a heuristic maxim that advises economy, parsimony, or simplicity in scientific theories.
Occam's Razor states that the explanation of any phenomenon should make as few assumptions as possible, eliminating those that make no difference in the observable predictions of the explanatory hypothesis or theory. The principle is often expressed in Latin as:
entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem,
which translates to:
entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity.
Furthermore, when multiple competing theories have equal predictive powers, the principle recommends selecting those that introduce the fewest assumptions and postulate the fewest hypothetical entities. It is in this sense that Occam's Razor is usually understood
alwright,
"WHY NOT??"
As soon as CVX "admits" to what they have found the price goes up 10X...
Does that clarify it for you? They will play this down as best they can amongst the leaks, but in the end the truth will come out.
IMO, some of it already has.
more please, Sinopec and CVX are competitors... what would make you think that CVX would share ANYTHING with SPC?
I can see CVX courting SPC if the motherload is over the border and in block #2, but in general I think oilco's play their cards pretty close.
I doubt SPC has any clue what's in the CVX PR.
I'll go out on a limb and tell you what the PR will say...
"CVX is happy to report that the OBO 1 drilling in the JDZ has revealed a significant oil field, perhaps over a billion barrels. The data also suggests that this field extends beyond the boundaries of block #1."
I expect nothing more than that. If you expect more, prepare for disappointment.
"You are one negative person!"...
Maestro certainly has a jaded view of the situation, almost like he expects or wants failure.
Personally I don't see how they can screw this up, or more accurately, get screwed out of their rights.
Last week my "next step" in ERHE's ladder was getting past the 14th/15th JDA payments. I am absolute comfortable with that now. With the rumors coming out about OBO 1 a company would be inept not to pay up now. If for some reason somebody can't, the major in the block will cover it, just like Sinopec cover the Indies last week.
Let Maestro be jaded, if he truely feels that way then he's not fully loaded... that makes him a chaser next week.
Chasers are good.
"sell at $4.00 by Friday" I simple cannot comprehend this.
If events unfold that will propel ERHE to $4 this week, this month, or this year... it will only be the first indication of the future.
A minor fear of mine about the future of ERHE is the short-sightedness of many of it's investors. Reaching full valuation will be difficult when people actually think $4 is a good selling price.
Bah, the funds have deep pockets and will GLADLY take your shares, sell away... but stay close, I want to see the look on your face when it just keeps going, and going, and going...
The "E" in ERHC stands for Energizer Bunny, at least it will look that way.
To each his own.
Thank you umbra, that is perfectly believable.
And actually makes sense.
umbra, correction?
My guide says the show is called "China Rises". I set a recording and look forward to watching it.
Thanks for the heads up. China is going to impact the World in a huge way for the forseeable future. Let's hope it stays peaceful.
yea Umbra, we want some of that "very, very" LOL!
EHRClongtimer, that would be unthinkably positive.
Based on Meridian's "10 producing horizons" (42075) and oilphant's little diddy about 6 blind men discovering an elephant... each of the 6 touched a different part of the elephant and described the creature differently based on what they touched.
Back to Meridian...
10 producing horizons, to me, means 10 different veins of oil. By applying oilphant's poem and its inference that an elephant can look completely different to 6 blind men based on the part of the elephant they touched, I have to conclude that some or all of the 10 producing horizons Meridian speaks of are actual part of separate fields, each an elephant in its own right.
I can live with that.
oilphant, d@mn you! LOL!
tamtam, my view is no earlier than 5 years, no longer than 10, my gut says closer to 10 though.
But with world demand growing as fast as it is you never know how fast OilCo's can bring this crude to market.
Caveat, this all assumes multiple 20 bbl or so finds, otherwise we'll get stuck in the $20-30 range.
Darn.
Before anyone blasts me for hyping, look at my time frame, 5 to 10 YEARS. 99% of the folks here (not trying to be negative) aren't looking ahead 5-10 WEEKS. If you'll notice the tenth of a cent quotes you'll see MANY aren't looking ahead much more than 5-10 MINUTES.
Traders will make money all the way up with ERHE, longs will become wealthy. It won't happen overnight, well, not necessarily, but the oil is there and it WILL happen.
Spuuuuuurt, I'm done.
If one tenth of what is plausible happens, every alias on this board is a millionaire.
Who needs a ride home?
#40837 is interesting...
"CVX Modus operandi, they know what they have, the only difference this time, is the Prima donna has to buy a ticket from Sinopec for the next show."
Hmmmm.
maestro, if you indeed hold shares...
you should sell, Monday at the open, and sell quickly!
If you want proof, stability, warm fuzzy's, and boring friends, then buy a large cap fund like Magellan.
You sure won't get the hand-holding you seem to need on the OTC, but by golly when it's real, you won't catch it either.
ERHE is on the verge of being considered real.
JMHO.
maestro,
"This is where the time value of money comes into play"
"You could have two oil companies and each has a 1 billion bbl field. If one can produce that field over 5 years and the other over 50 years, which do you want to own?"
"Getting the cash sooner is far better"
So you advocate SEO selling out ASAP?
You sound like a trader that can't figure out the next day, week, or even month (although I think the thought of holding anything that long makes you shake).
If the CVX/SNP joint drill is real, that's confirmation enough for me... this dog can run!
"Cash sooner is far better"... ROTFL! Sell SEO, Sell, I need a quickie!
I'll take a 40+ bagger in 5 years over the stress of the game you play...
Every time.
LOL! You kill me! em
ERHE "should" move on this news, if/when it hits. But unless they give a ballpark number on what percentage straddles #2, I don't think it moves too much. I don't think they'll give any detail other than it extends into block #2. Why would they?
We need a drill ship in #2 YESTERDAY!!!
If that little burst was Sinopec, they seem to be waiting for the flippers to flip. It doesn't look like anyone want to let go! LOL!
If it doesn't drop soon I would expect buying to resume, getting VERY strong into the close
I was in error, it is...
sinopecisbuyingshs
I did it one line at a time the first time, when I saw
sinopecisbuyin
my eyeballs saw sinopecisbuyingin
Forgive me, I was just shy of the state of fainting when I posted it!
LOL!
I'm guessing we knew this, the $195M for the 5% Indies stake?
oilphant, stick with morse code, we can figure that out!!!
sinopecisbuyingin
GSHS
Anyone know what GSHS stands for????
I used this morse code translator
http://morsecode.scphillips.com/jtranslator.html
You got it TFA!
"C Shells talking, that's what you get when you put
a Shell to your ear."
"C Shells talking" means "See? Shells talking" and it is a great metaphor (sea shells) to set up his next line...
"that's what you get when you put a shell (Shell Oil) to 'your' (our stock) ear (erhe)"
Great great TFA... I think? I hope?
Gotta love oilphant! LOL.
CobraJet,
I'd say by mid 2007 ERHE's proven will exceed 1.7 bbl. Keeping in, of course, that based on CVX hole ERHE may already have done that. Until announced I'm leaving it out completely.
Holes will be poked in #2 & #4 this year, I'll be shocked if by mid 2007 proven isn't close to or exceeding 1.7 bbl
For your second question I pulled Unocal's latest filing before being bought (2004). A significant portion of the $18.5B went towards other assets. Unocal may have only had 1.7 bbl proven, but they also had:
1.) 411K bbl/d oil prod
2.) 1.5 Mcf NG production
3.) 16000 rights acreage (quality of acreage unknown)
Hope this helps.
Tap, last post on this, please
If you look back I did NOT quote you, I was in a hurry and paraphrased your post. Read the second half of your post, the "Big red flag" part concerning ERHE's lack of movement.
All I wanted to do was suggest that until the PSC's are final, ERHE might not move much. We'll see after April 14th.
Is this some kinda of vendetta because I blasted PS a while back??? You weren't even involved, so why are you attacking me like this??
I really appreciate an honest answer, via email so top not clutter this great board... tryoty@gmail.com
"offering $18.5 billion for Unocal was a steal; it's increasingly cheaper to buy an existing company than to find new oil reserves"
Unocal only had 1.9bbl proven. Swim, little minnow, SWIM!
My god, what have found in ERHE?
Tap, I'm wasting my last post of the day on THIS???
What is your problem with me tonight???
I never said anything about drilling 2, 3, & 4. You stated the share price did not indicate a big find in #1 that straddles #2.
I replied saying that the PSC's on 2, 3, & 4 are not final until the payments are made April 14/15th. What I did is suggest that as a reason why, nobody wants in until they're FINAL.
Why you're on my butt... I have NO IDEA!
Geessh right back at ya!
I know Tap, I was corrected on that earlier...
my point was ERHE may not be moving yet because blk 2 isn't final until everyone has paid April 14(15?).
I realize Block 1 is a done deal, I brain-farted earlier.
If haven't done anything wrong why freak out about it?
Even if the looney convinced some court to allow a sopena to be served, they'd only get your name.
So what.
You are strung WAY too tight over this. Mongo wanted to stir you up...
and he one!
Tapco, I think it's because the PSC's aren't final
until the monies are paid to the JDZ. Once final, then we move. And that coincides with the release of the find, as much as is known about it so far.
I agree, if it's as big as rumors indicate, MANY more wells need dug to prove it op.
LOL@Walldog, it was a crank phone call, ignore it!
RKT, sorry! Mad bad.
RKT, that's insane...
Nobody is selling rights to ANYTHING until more holes are poked.
Wouldn't ya feel great if CVX bought ERHE share of the straddle for X and it was later found out to be worth 10X?
It will not happen... yet.
Homeport, I don't think he was kidding...
I think it's that big. When CVX poked
into OBO 1 they poked at a bee's nest, and I think most of the nest is in blk 2.
It'll be ugly for a while, but as long as CVX/XOM FAILS TO get any blk 2 partners to back out of payment, PSC blk 2 will get ratified.
If we get a partner that backs out to stop ratification...
Well then, THAT would be a mess.
Payment to the JDA is the single-most important thing for ERHE and it's consortium right now.
Nothing else matters.
Thanks Mark, brainfart@tryoty em
Meridian, in this message I am replying to...
You said "announcement WILL coincide with the inauguration of PREIDENT"
Recent elections were for parliment. Presidential elections aren't set yet and will be later in the summer?
Can you clarify?
Is this your backhanded way of saying OBO is Ghawar-like and mostly in blk 2 and CVX is stomping their feet and crying.
Didn't oilphant post there was going to be a long fight over this?
If all block 2 players stay on the same page and pay signature bonuses, blk 2 can move forward. If CVX chooses not to pay, does that tie up the block 2 straddle until block 1 is resolved.
We may be in for a long mud-slinging mess, but there's other places in blk 2 to poke holes. interesting places.
ERHE and the consortium will move forward, CVX will have it's temper tantrum and we won't know what's in that staddle anytime soon. And the uncertainty will hold the shares back.
All random thoughts.
All so I can buy more! Time to dig into the couch cusions for some $$$.
TFA, a P/E of 30 on XOM is stupid... I never said that.
But if ERHE is a O&G exloration company that grows earnings from nothing to $3 per share over the next 10 years, and at THAT time they are sitting on prospects to continue doing so, you can bet your @ss it will demand a P/E of 30.
Both cheeks.
TheDane, gicen what you've said here you'll choke on my next one! LOL.
Remember, that's 10 YEARS down the road. 99.9% of the people here aren't looking 10 WEEKS out.
I'm not hyping a $50 stock this year, but even with a P/E of 15 it should be in 10 years.
It's all about patience. Gut wrenching patience.
Meridian's percentages...
Here's an simple version of Meridian's 1.7% of profit oil calculation. It makes it easier to understand.
Say what CVX found is another AKPO and it has 1 bbl in block 2.
AKPO is suppose to produce 225K barrels when it reaches full production. I'm using 200K to make the math easy.
1.) 200K bpd production
2.) 100K (50%) off the top for the JDA
3.) 80K out of the remaining 100K (cost oil, 80% up front)
4.) 20K bpd left. I don't remember ERHC's exact percentage in block 2, I think it was 17%. So ERCH gets 3400 bpd during the early stages.
3400 / 200K = 0.017 or 1.7%
Didn't Meridian say exactly that? Exactly that?
Keep in mind that with that 80% cost recovery that's $2 BILLION in the first year towards cost. I don't know what these platforms cost to build, but that's a buttload o money! And the scale is graduated... I don't know how. Maybe 80% cost rec in the first year, then 70%, 60%, in subsequent years down until the percentage of cost oil match daily expenditure needs (20%)?
For those doing the math, that's just over 13 cents a share revenues to ERHE, from on field, in one block, in the begining when cost recovery is highest. It'll will go up 4X to 52 cents a share once costs are recovered and profit oil is 80%.
And there's a big 'ole monster field on the seismic on the other side of block 2. So maybe we see a buck a share in revs out of block 2.
And just what are ERHC's expenditures? 3 FT employees and a lot of travel? Shoot, the money in the bank will cover expenses for 10 years if they do nothing else. And they'll be bringing in $3-4 in revenue in 10 years with all blocks up IF THEY DO NOTHING ELSE. $3-4 a share with a nickel a share in expenses IF THEY DO NOTHING.
Slap a P/E of 30 on $3 a share profit and punch some numbers with how many shares you own. This thing is a cash cow! Sorry Meridian, just trying to "clarfy" things!