Thursday, April 06, 2006 10:52:35 AM
Here's an simple version of Meridian's 1.7% of profit oil calculation. It makes it easier to understand.
Say what CVX found is another AKPO and it has 1 bbl in block 2.
AKPO is suppose to produce 225K barrels when it reaches full production. I'm using 200K to make the math easy.
1.) 200K bpd production
2.) 100K (50%) off the top for the JDA
3.) 80K out of the remaining 100K (cost oil, 80% up front)
4.) 20K bpd left. I don't remember ERHC's exact percentage in block 2, I think it was 17%. So ERCH gets 3400 bpd during the early stages.
3400 / 200K = 0.017 or 1.7%
Didn't Meridian say exactly that? Exactly that?
Keep in mind that with that 80% cost recovery that's $2 BILLION in the first year towards cost. I don't know what these platforms cost to build, but that's a buttload o money! And the scale is graduated... I don't know how. Maybe 80% cost rec in the first year, then 70%, 60%, in subsequent years down until the percentage of cost oil match daily expenditure needs (20%)?
For those doing the math, that's just over 13 cents a share revenues to ERHE, from on field, in one block, in the begining when cost recovery is highest. It'll will go up 4X to 52 cents a share once costs are recovered and profit oil is 80%.
And there's a big 'ole monster field on the seismic on the other side of block 2. So maybe we see a buck a share in revs out of block 2.
And just what are ERHC's expenditures? 3 FT employees and a lot of travel? Shoot, the money in the bank will cover expenses for 10 years if they do nothing else. And they'll be bringing in $3-4 in revenue in 10 years with all blocks up IF THEY DO NOTHING ELSE. $3-4 a share with a nickel a share in expenses IF THEY DO NOTHING.
Slap a P/E of 30 on $3 a share profit and punch some numbers with how many shares you own. This thing is a cash cow! Sorry Meridian, just trying to "clarfy" things!
ERHC's share of JDZ oil; 1 billion barrels. Once proven, ERHE will be $10+. All we need is time and patience.
Nuf said.
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