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"leave the wealthy projections to 'one of these days'"
LOL! Yeah, that would have saved you some grief.
I would be perfectly content to know ERHE will trade in the $15 range as I expect... in 1-2 years.
I don't need more granularity than that.
kobi, a little correction...
certainly just a typo.
"one time you hit LNG and you were upset because it was a busted well, now you hit LNG and you're doing cartwheels"
It isn't LNG until it's been pressurized and chilled to godawful cold temperatures. That's why hitting NG used to be a curse, it was too expensive to convert it to LNG and not economically feasible to transport it as a qas.
I know you know, but just in case...
I think what is wanted is a straight answer...
Obviously your "very, very, wealthy by Easter" comment was based on knowledge of something.
You can hardly fault people for wanting to know what it is.
It's like hanging a carrot in front of a rabbit on a treadmill. Given what these people have been through (which I admit I have not) I can understand the anxiety.
rheddle...
"$500 bribe would get us all the information we need from the ship!"
Would you really be prepared to pay $500 for information that would ABSOLUTELY land you in jail?
After the Martha Stewart debacle I fond that astonishing.
That's just under 9 tcf !!!!!!
That's a lot of gas!
balance_builder...
THANK YOU for providing much needed balance here. Neither ERHC, nor Sinopec, are in ANY position to sell ANYTHING right now.
OBO-1 was drilled for the benefit of CVX/XOM. If OBO-1 showed most of the oil is in block 2 as oilphant suggests, does ANYONE with more brain cells than Mongo think they'll call us and say, "most of the oil is in your block, can we buy it?"
Whatever CVX/XOM learned by drilling OBO-1 is known only to CVX/XOM.
If we sell ANYTHING before poking a hole it would be incompetent.
*If* oilphants statements come true it seems to me that he works for either CVX, XOM, or the the org that drilled it (if they farmed out the drilling). Nobody else would know.
Maybe he, whoever he is, is here because he placed a side bet on a minnow?
No matter. I like the riddles. It's interesting to see into the thoughts of others through their interperetations of the meaning.
At the end of the day, Julius Erving had it right (minus the condescending attitude), if there's no oil, ERHC isn't worth squat. If there *is* oil, it's a rocket. Whether the rocket is slated for Earth orbit or a mission to Pluto is dependent on how much oil is there.
Even a lowball projection of 1 bbl in each 2, 3 & 4 makes several people on this board millionaires.
I envy those with the brass to have that much on the line.
maestro, you are right, they can't tell the full extent of the field with one well.
But there's no reason one well couldn't provide them with enough data to say there's at LEAST 11 bbl down there.
That's why reserve estimates almost ALWAYS go up. As they drill more wells, they'll revise upward as the data warrants, IMO.
"ERHC selling it's share of the straddle"
I'm not convinced of this. There would be only one viable buyer. Chevron and Exxon wouldn't mess with us unless they were buying Sinopecs share as well, and there's NO WAY Sinopec is letting go of ANYTHIN in blk 2.
So the only possible buyer that wouldn't upset the JDA is Sinopec buying ERHE's stake in the straddle.
I say we sell it to them, but only if the bump our percentage of the field on the other side of blk 2 up to 50%
"learn how the Argonauts got past the sirens. Follow that letters advice imho.
Because some wicked voices this way comes."
I read that to mean oilphant expects a basher field day some time soon.
How did Orpheus get past the Sirens? He took out his lyre and played music more beautiful than that of the Sirens.
"Follow that letters advice". I *think* he may have meant "follow the letters advice."
lyre = liar? Meaning ignore the wicked voices as they are lying?
I missed that riddle, so there's my late stab at it.
oilphant could've meant OBO-1 found 3 bbl. He may not have meant $3B
LOL@myself! perhaps sinopec is buying
Someones Holdings Soon"?
The only point I'm trying to make is after oilphant posted stuff that was Base64 encoded I started to wonder if "SHS = shares" might over simplified.
He seems beyond simple abbreviations.
Yes. Oilphant posted it last week.
"sinopec is buying SRS"
As I remember the message, the SRS were the only capital letters.
perhaps it was not intended to stand for "shares".
sinopec is buying Someones Rights Soon
snow, quit being rediculous...
You are using the valuation of another company's NON-CARRIED stake in ONE block to project a valuation of a company that has FULL CARRY in THREE blocks.
But then you knew that already.
Have you EVER posted ONE positive word about ERHE? Didn't think so.
rheddle, something to consider...
"It runs off the serious investor who visits here for the 1st time."
If you look back to when oilphant join IHUB and look at the charts you would conclude he is a very bad pumper.
If anything, his posts *might* be holding the price steady instead of it dropping absent news.
Just a thought.
The Three Wise Monkeys: See no Evil, Hear no Evil, Speak no evil. -- origin: China
I gues if you're wise and understand the China connection there is no evil.
Tapco,
Larry said bewtween 6 and 13a on the top 25.
6 is 15-26 bbl
13a is 13 bbl
So Larry thinks between 13 and 26 bbl is not out of the question.
Using the area of A, A1, & A2 estimated from page 16 of the Afren report I came up with 12-15 bbl (see 43239).
I think we're on the same page. Even if only 10-15% straddles block 2 as suggested by that Afren diagram, we're talking roughly 2 bbl in block 2.
That's not something to disregard as insignificant!
Magic, adding me to your ignore list won't hurt my feelings.
Since when is looking at maps based on seismic information and adding in net pay and porosity from DIGGING WELL(s) uninformed?
"If such interpretations were valid, there would be no such thing as wildcat wells"
I clearly stated wildcats are necessary to determine net pay and porosity.
What's your beef with what I said?
Are you sure you didn't mean to reply to someone else's post? Your complaints about mine don't match what I said.
Withuall, see slide 16 in my previous post.
Look at the overlap of A2 into block 2. It isn't much. It's possible that A is "slightly in block 2, but by an insignificant.
It's my understanding that seismic is accurate at defining rock formations that delineate oil fields. What seismic can't do is tell you net pay and porosity. That's where the wildcat comes in.
I think what we see on slide 16 is an accurate depiction of the fields in the JDZ. After poking some holes to determine net pay and porosity is when the size estimates come out.
Withuall, you sound almost "disappointed" that "only" 10% is in block 2. It's a freebie. It's gravy. Once unitized and CVX starts production they cut us a check. ERHE doesn't even have to drill.
Take a look at field C in block 2... that's where we drill, IMO. 2+ bbl in that one, IMO.
Fishdog, see slide 16...
This takes a while to load, even with broadband!
http://www.afren.com/pdf/Afren-Oilbarrel-Nov05.pdf
maestro, for once I agree with you...
Based on the seismic I'd say no more than 10% of CVX's find is in block #2.
15% tops.
instructmba, "where do we really fit?"
I took the scale on the Afren chart and guestimated the area covered by fields A, A1, & A2.
It's pretty close to 50 sq mi.
In a previous post I calculated to oil content of a round field (10 mi diameter) with an average net pay of 300' and came up with 11 bbl using 10% porosity.
Multiple posters have indicated that porosity is likely to be closer to 20%. The 10 mil diameter example is 80 sq mi, so A, A1, & A2 are a little more than half of my example, but porosity could be twice the figure I used.
Conclusion: A, A1, & A2 contain 12-15 bbl of oil.
Fishdog, VERY unlikely...
that well 2 is complete. It took 62 days to drill obo 1, which was completed March 15th I believe. No way they started drilling #2 before the last week in March. Any results from #2 won't come out until June, IMO.
Name for obo 1, Ghawar's Daddy.
Sangamon Kid...
Naw, he's none of those...
But he stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night!
Strass... companies only PR material events.
ERHE restating CVX's PR is Brandhuber telling us that OBO is material to ERHE, ie. straddle. Rumor confirmed, we have oil.
So why doesn't this nutcases post get deleted?
Oilphant, this one is over the top.
I could write a program to walk through the ASCII values of every letter in the alphabet and see what jumps out, but I don't have the time to play those games. By the time this one gets figured out the news will already be released.
If you would have indicated spacing between words, then maybe, but I'm not dealing with this one.
It's my opinion that this one get solved only in hindsight.
Spec29,
That's post did more for me than my wife talking dirty to me!
:-0
I hate time. Time sucks. Just move the rigs and drill...
Yesterday.
Don't misunderstand me, I am NOT a "I need it all and I need it now" person.
But I AM a I need it soon-like-in-the-next-12-months kind of person. I can probably stretch that to 2 years, maybe three, but a "confirmation" jump in share price would ease the difficulty in my current situation.
"That is my conservative estimate for now."
Conservative? I'll say.
I'll be shocked if Blk 2 doesn't give up 3 bbl+ based on those Afren charts.
Keepin it real?
Some of the numbers flying around are outrageous, including those posted by me.
Throwing some logic at the assumptions should help, I think.
First off let's assume that 800' net pay is at the absolute thickest point of the field. Knock that down to 300' AVERAGE net pay for the whole field.
A 50 mile diameter, as rumored, has got to be hogwash. Ghawar is 140 miles long by 10 miles wide with a average net pay of 200'. Drop the field size by a factor of 5, say 10 mile diameter. Nothing, and I mean nothing, in the seismic indicated a Hercules sized field.
So what does that leave after we hack the rumors down?
A field with a 10 mile diameter and 300' net pay. If we assume a very conservative porosity of 10%, we have enough info to make an educated guess based on a bunch of other guesses (LOL!)
A circular field with a 10 mile diameter is 2,189,499,840 sq ft... multiplied by the 300' net pay and I get....
2,189,499,840 sq ft * 300 = 656,849,952,000 cubic feet of net pay.
10% porosity leaves 65,684,995,200 cubic feet of oil. How much of that is actually recoverable? I don't know. Oily's feel free to jump in.
There's 7.48 gallons in a cubic foot, so...
65,684,995,200 * 7.48 = 491,323,764,096 gallons of oil
42 gallons per barrel, so...
491,323,764,096 / 42 = 11,698,184,859 barrels.
Now that's a number that I can get my head around. A 10+ bbl find is plausible. And I think if you look at the Afren charts showing the fields as seen by seismic a 10 mi diameter field is in the ballpark.
There is no Ghawar down there. But there are several multi-bbl fields in blocks 1-6 of the JDZ, IMO. If the Afren seismic chart is accurate, then I'd say 4-5 bbl in blk 2, 6-7 bbl in blk 3, and 4-5 bbl in blk 4.
That would put ERHE's reserves at just over the 2-3 bbl range, with full carry, and we don't have a clue what's in 5 & 6 yet.
It may well take 5-7 years, but this is a $30-$50 stock.
G'nite.
Anyone in the oil biz...
What is the porosity of the oil bearing material in a typical field?
Given a square foot of oil sand, what volume of oil is there?
2-3% ???
dbernet, that's why I don't believe 50 mi diameter.
1983 bbl is just a wee bit beyond ridiculous... donchathink?
I think that's more than the entire global reserves at present.
I think they HAVE to acknowledge the straddle...
but I think they'll say the field "extends beyond block one boundaries".
They won't advertise into which block(s).
LOL@Me, that's the same answer!
Feet in 1 sq mi = 5280 * 5280
Cubic feet in an 800 foot thick sq mi
5280 * 5280 * 800 = 22,302,720,000 cubic feet
22,302,720,000 cubic feet in gallons
1 cubic feet = 7.48051945 US gallons
22,302,720,000 * 7.48 = 1.66835931 × 1011 US gallons
166,835,931,000 gallons
There's no way the oil producing sands are 50% permeable, maybe 25% if you're lucky.
166B gallons * .25 = 41.5B gallons
41.5B / 42 = .99 bbl per square mile 800 feet thick.
How many sq miles is this field???
Spec29,
Google "gallons in cubic feet"
Google is a conversion godsend, and calculator...
google: 5280 * 800 * (25 * 5280) =
gives the number of cubic feet in a cube 25 miles by 1 mile by 800 feet thick.
Note: There are no implications in the above numbers, I pulled them out of the air.
alwright, P/E won't be a meaningful measure for 5-7 years, IMO. It'll take 3-5 years for any pumping to begin and another couple to get all 3 blocks going.
But to get an idea of where were headed...
Assume 2 bbl in each block.
AKPO has 1 bbl and produces over 200K bpd, so assume 400K bpd PEAK per block (7-9+ years out), or 1.2M bpd if all fields peak around the same time.
ERHE's average percentage of profit oil for all 3 blocks is roughly 1.5% when cost recovery is at it's peak, rising to roughly 6% when costs have been recovered.
That's 18K in the beginning up to 72K bpd best case if all fields peak simultaneously.
At $60 per barrel, that's $1,080,000 per day, up to $4,320,000 per day peak. 365 days in a year, but I assume there's downtime for maintenance, so let's say a year is 300 days.
With $60 oil, that's $324M to $1.296B peak revenue (best case). Subtract out whatever you think ERHC's costs will be at that time and you'll get an idea of ballpark earnings potential.
All predicated on 2bbl each in blocks 2, 3, and 4.
Add in blocks 5 and 6, the STPEEZ, more than 2 bbl in each block, and $80-100 oil and, well, you get the picture. I would say expectations of earnings around $1 per share in 7 years, with potential of $2 or higher, would be considered reasonable.
92,000 things can change in 7 years, so chalk this up to mental masturbation.
Agreed. I'm beginning to wonder...
if this is a case of "the quieter they are, the bigger the news."
They've kept a lid on it very effectively, that's for sure.
TheDane, I believe Meridian said that...
there are some wells in the Caspian Sea that have not found bottom water. I don't think he said that about OBO 1.