Keepin it real?
Some of the numbers flying around are outrageous, including those posted by me.
Throwing some logic at the assumptions should help, I think.
First off let's assume that 800' net pay is at the absolute thickest point of the field. Knock that down to 300' AVERAGE net pay for the whole field.
A 50 mile diameter, as rumored, has got to be hogwash. Ghawar is 140 miles long by 10 miles wide with a average net pay of 200'. Drop the field size by a factor of 5, say 10 mile diameter. Nothing, and I mean nothing, in the seismic indicated a Hercules sized field.
So what does that leave after we hack the rumors down?
A field with a 10 mile diameter and 300' net pay. If we assume a very conservative porosity of 10%, we have enough info to make an educated guess based on a bunch of other guesses (LOL!)
A circular field with a 10 mile diameter is 2,189,499,840 sq ft... multiplied by the 300' net pay and I get....
2,189,499,840 sq ft * 300 = 656,849,952,000 cubic feet of net pay.
10% porosity leaves 65,684,995,200 cubic feet of oil. How much of that is actually recoverable? I don't know. Oily's feel free to jump in.
There's 7.48 gallons in a cubic foot, so...
65,684,995,200 * 7.48 = 491,323,764,096 gallons of oil
42 gallons per barrel, so...
491,323,764,096 / 42 = 11,698,184,859 barrels.
Now that's a number that I can get my head around. A 10+ bbl find is plausible. And I think if you look at the Afren charts showing the fields as seen by seismic a 10 mi diameter field is in the ballpark.
There is no Ghawar down there. But there are several multi-bbl fields in blocks 1-6 of the JDZ, IMO. If the Afren seismic chart is accurate, then I'd say 4-5 bbl in blk 2, 6-7 bbl in blk 3, and 4-5 bbl in blk 4.
That would put ERHE's reserves at just over the 2-3 bbl range, with full carry, and we don't have a clue what's in 5 & 6 yet.
It may well take 5-7 years, but this is a $30-$50 stock.
G'nite.
ERHC's share of JDZ oil; 1 billion barrels. Once proven, ERHE will be $10+. All we need is time and patience.
Nuf said.
