would like to thank the Academy
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You could make more moneyat the damn TRACK than with the CD rates. Of course, that is the point, 'ol Ben wants people to put money in the market, because hey, look how it is flying! Of course, people have been getting a LOT smarter, and do not trust these clowns anymore, so they are pulling out of the market like crazy, and either putting the cash in the mattress, bonds, or gold.
LOL, oops! I was all Puts before, I forgot I actually did a CALL play.
Puts on CPB actually DROPPED after the stock dropped, weird.
OK, dumped out of the GMCR Puts for 1.89 from 1.00 entry, not bad! CPB Puts going nowhere, even though it gapped down. I got some time, I guess it needs more of a downward move before they will move up. Their earnings not THAT good.
Need to catch up on all the news, and take care of some of these trades, so I will be quiet for about 10 minutes, but then i will be posting along. Should be on for an hour or so. Got an Anthrax shot, so my damn arm is killing me, and I am tired as heck.
Just got on. WAHOO! And my CPB Puts are paying off! Man, sometimes you just get a good day.
Crappy day for me today. Off for more BS, will hopefully be back before market open. See ya later Lottos!
You know what....forget it. Instead, you and I drink the beer!
Hey there Den. I see Europe is having all sorts of fun times again out there. Maybe just ship a LOT of beer to Greece, and they can all just relax, and things will get better.
Oh man, just noticed I got the WRONG damn calls yesterday on GMCR. I got $32 calls for $1 a piece. Was wondering why my balance was off. I need computer screen glasses or something!
What a difference a day makes. Europe starting to cause all sorts of trouble again. Market bounced HARD yesterday, only typical we may see a breather to day.
EU Leaders Face Greek Aid Gap in Brinkmanship With IMF
By James G. Neuger - Nov 20, 2012
European finance ministers will try to plug a 15 billion-euro ($19 billion) hole in Greece’s finances and win over the International Monetary Fund in the latest installment of three years of debt-crisis brinkmanship.
Recycling European Central Bank profits on Greek bonds, charging Greece lower interest rates and extending repayment deadlines are among the options under consideration today for filling the new gap in Greece’s public accounts.
European governments tore open the hole last week, by giving Greece two extra years to cut its budget deficit. The required extra financing provoked a clash with the IMF, since it would add to Greece’s debt load instead of reducing it.
“Greece is in a mess,” James Mirrlees, a Nobel economics laureate, told Bloomberg Television yesterday. Europe won’t solve the problem by “fiddling around with little bits of extra bailout and allowing them to go a bit slower.”
Officials said today’s meeting, starting at 5 p.m. in Brussels, won’t make a final decision to release the next tranche of aid to Greece, partly because parliaments in Germany, the Netherlands and Finland have yet to weigh in.
The “troika” representing creditors also has to certify that Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s coalition government has delivered economy-boosting steps ranging from improvements to tax collection to the deregulation of closed professions.
Credit Rating
The meeting comes a day after France lost its top credit rating with Moody’s Investors Service, increasing pressure on President Francois Hollande to find ways to bolster growth in Europe’s second-largest economy.
France was cut to Aa1 from Aaa, the rating company said. The Moody’s downgrade follows one by Standard & Poor’s in January.
The euro slid versus most of its 16 major counterparts after the Moody’s action renewed concern the currency bloc’s debt crisis is deepening. The 17-nation euro continued to slide today, dropping 0.2 percent to $1.2787 as of 9:59 a.m. in Brussels.
Greek 10-year bonds were higher for an eighth day amid expectations that creditors will keep money flowing to the Athens government. The yield on security maturing in February 2023 fell 6 basis points to 17.17 percent.
One option is to deliver about 44 billion euros to Greece in December, by bundling 31.5 billion euros on hold since mid- year with two other tranches due before year-end, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said after the ministers failed to finalize the financing last week.
Paris Meeting
Finance officials from Germany, France, Spain and Italy met yesterday in Paris to overcome differences. Spokesmen for the four finance ministries declined to comment on the meeting, which was also attended by European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn.
MORE - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2012-11-19/europe-chiefs-face-greek-aid-gap-in-rescue-brinkmanship-with-imf.html
Stock index futures signal lower start
4:29am EST
LONDON (Reuters) - Stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street on Tuesday, with futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down 0.2 percent, and Dow Jones contracts down 0.1 percent at 0905 GMT.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 ended a four-day winning run on Tuesday as investors took profits in exporters, which had rallied on hopes Japan's main opposition party would win next month's election and pressure the central bank for more stimulus steps.
European shares edged lower early on, with the French CAC 40 .FCHI a core euro zone laggard after ratings agency Moody's issued a long-awaited downgrade of France's credit rating.
The U.S. Commerce Department releases housing starts and permits data for October at 1330 GMT, expected to show a pull-back after hefty gains in recent months. But a severe storm in late October could exaggerate the magnitude of the decline.
The Federal Reserve's Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks before the Economic Club of New York at 1715 GMT, a speech that may offer a fresh chance to gauge the Fed's appetite for more monetary stimulus. Market participants currently expect the Fed to step up asset purchases in 2013 after Operation Twist expires.
JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) named little-known executive Marianne Lake as its chief financial officer on Monday, making her one of the most powerful women on Wall Street and the top ambassador to investors for the largest U.S. bank.
The U.S. International Trade Commission will review a judge's decision which found <Apple AAPL.O> did not violate patents owned by Samsung Electronics (005930.KS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) in making the iPod touch, iPhone and iPad.
MORE - http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/us-markets-stocks-idUSBRE8AI0EW20121120?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28Business+News%29
<mish>"Entirely Self-Made" Crisis; I Love My Family But ...
As debt that cannot possibly ever be paid back spirals out of control, it is amusing (as well as saddening) to watch widely-read economists propose still more of the same policies that have failed time and time again.
Today's silliness comes from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Telegraph.
Pritchard's headline title Merkel's day of reckoning as taxpayer haircut on Greece looms makes perfect sense as does his opening gambit.
We are at last nearing the awful moment when the curtain is ripped away. Greece’s economy has contracted 7pc over the last year. Public debt will spiral to 190pc of GDP in 2013. Leaving aside the Gothic horror of youth unemployment at 58pc, Greece’s debt trajectory is simply out of control.
I have no quibbles with that paragraph, or for that matter, many paragraphs that follow. Unfortunately, Pritchard concludes with Monetartist claptrap, as to how things ought to be.
Fiscal policy is too tight. Monetary policy is too tight. Regulatory policy is also too tight since it is forcing banks to raise capital buffers even as the slump deepens.
Professor Paul de Grauwe from the London School of Economics said the deepening crisis is "entirely self-made" and "very dangerous" as passions fly. Angela Merkel had to slip into Portugal last week almost secretly to outwit demonstrators and avoid a "national sovereignty" march. One of her diplomats was assaulted by a mob in Greece.
It would have been so much easier for Euroland, for the Project, for North-South comity, if the ECB had let rip a long time ago with quantitative easing to cushion the blow from fiscal tightening, but that is to suppose a different Europe existed.
"Entirely Self-Made" Crisis
The crisis most certainly is "Entirely Self-Made", just not in the manner de Grauwe and Pritchard state.
The sad thing is Pritchard knows full well the euro was doomed from the start. He was one of the original eurosceptics, predicting accurately the euro could not survive.
Now, in spite of all the numerous structural flaws of the euro, somehow we are to believe things would be "much easier for Euroland if the ECB had let rip a long time ago with quantitative easing".
What a crock. If QE worked and fiscal stimulus worked, Japan would not have debt-to-GDP ratio of 230%. Japan's national debt bow exceeds a quadrillion yen!
A quadrillion is a number with 15 zeros. 1,000,000,000,000,000. Can that ever be paid back? How?
Ivory Tower Economists in Academic Wonderland
In the US, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is now in round three of QE. This round is undefined. Has QE created any jobs? If so where?
In addition to QE the US has been running budget deficits exceeding $1 trillion for four straight years. What the heck is that other than Keynesian stimulus?
It has failed. But economists like Paul Krugman want more of it (please see Mish on Capital Account: "Time for Krugman to Leave Ivory Tower for Real World").
Krugman will claim deficit spending prevented disaster. It did no such thing. All it did is pile up the debt that cannot possibly be paid back.
The average 7th grader likely understands that he cannot spend more money than he has for years on end. The average economist does not.
That is one of the reasons we are in this mess. And as I have said repeatedly, hyperinflationists fail to understand this is not just a US problem.
Central Bankers' Potemkin Village
If there was one report this entire year that you should read in entirety, Central Bankers' Potemkin Village by Kyle Bass at Hayman Capital is the one.
The article is lengthy (at 31 pages) and is protected from text copy, but requires no password to read. It will be well worth your time to read the entire thing.
The following charts are all from the article.
Total Assets of Global Central Banks
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/11/entirely-self-made-crisis-i-love-my.html#RwBMJKC5AIsFvGj9.99
Israel Willing to Hold Ground Assault, Give Talks Chance
By Calev Ben-David and Jonathan Ferziger - Nov 20, 2012
Israel postponed a decision on whether to launch a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip to give the international community a chance to reach a cease-fire, a government official said, as U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton heads to the region to join peace talks.
The official, who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the information, said Israel was prepared to send in the troops if an agreement wasn’t reached. Clinton and United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon are joining Egyptian-led efforts to broker a cease-fire between the Islamist Hamas movement and Israel as fighting enters its seventh day.
“Both sides must cease fire immediately,” Ban told journalists in Cairo before traveling to Israel. “A ground operation would be a major escalation,” he said, as Israel boosted its forces on the Gaza border.
Clinton will visit Jerusalem, Cairo and Ramallah, said Ben Rhodes, White House deputy national security adviser. “The goal on that trip is for everybody to use their voices, their influence, for a peaceful outcome,” he said at a briefing in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.
Palestinians fired more than 40 rockets into Israel today, according to police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld, and Israel continued its attacks on Hamas and related targets in the Gaza Strip. Israel, the U.S. and the European Union label Hamas a terrorist group.
Israeli strikes killed 39 Palestinians in Gaza yesterday, raising the death toll to 113 since Nov. 14, said Ashraf al- Qedra, spokesman for the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. Three Israeli citizens have been killed.
Bank Hit
Israel launched about 100 air strikes overnight against “terror sites,” the army said in an e-mailed statement, including the Islamic National Bank in Gaza City, devastating the Hamas-owned lender that the group uses to pay the salaries of its 35,000 employees. “A financial institution used by Hamas to fuel its terror activity was targeted,” the army said.
Israeli officials have said any cease-fire must include a long-term agreement with Hamas to halt the rocket fire that threatens 4.5 million people, or half the country’s population
“Without that, there’s no point,” Internal Security Minister Yitzhak Aharonovitch said in an interview with Army Radio.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with eight senior Cabinet ministers late yesterday to decide whether to order an advance on the Palestinian territory by troops and hundreds of tanks arrayed on its eastern border. The meeting ended early today with no statement issued.
Israel’s Duty
Israel has massed tanks on its border east of Gaza and began to call up 75,000 reservists for a possible ground operation.
Speaking in Cairo yesterday, Khaled Mashaal, the head of Hamas, said Israel must end its blockade of the Gaza Strip for there to be an agreement on a cease-fire.
“Israel is the one that started the war and should stop it,” he said, adding that Hamas won’t accept any Israeli conditions. “Certain demands must be met,” including an end to the blockade of Gaza, he said.
MORE - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2012-11-20/un-s-ban-brings-diplomatic-weight-to-israel-hamas-talks.html
Ah! Good morning Den. late start for me, running around all damn day.
European Stocks Decline as Moody’s Downgrades France
By Namitha Jagadeesh - Nov 20, 2012
European stocks fell, after the Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped the most in two months yesterday, as Moody’s Investors Service downgraded France and euro-area finance ministers prepared to meet. U.S. index futures declined, while Asian shares rose.
BNP Paribas SA (BNP) and Societe Generale SA (GLE) paced losses among French lenders. Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) dropped 2.7 percent after saying it will reorganize its investment bank.
The Stoxx 600 (SXXP) retreated 0.3 percent to 267.77 at 8:57 a.m. in London. The gauge has still rallied 15 percent from this year’s low on June 4 as the European Central Bank announced an unlimited bond-buying plan and the Federal Reserve began a third round of asset purchases. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures declined 0.2 percent today, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.1 percent.
“Moody’s ratings agency pulled the trigger on France’s triple-A rating last night,” Michael Hewson, a market analyst at CMC Markets Plc in London, wrote in e-mailed comments. “It could have a trickledown effect down through the French banking system, with potential downgrades for French banks, feeding through into higher borrowing costs.”
Moody’s downgraded France to Aa1 from Aaa and maintained a negative projection, citing a worsening growth outlook for Europe’s second-largest economy. Standard & Poor’s cut the nation’s rating in January.
Greek Gap
European finance ministers will discuss ways to fill a 15 billion-euro ($19.2 billion) gap in Greece’s public accounts at a meeting scheduled for 5 p.m. in Brussels today. The options under consideration include recycling ECB profits on Greek bonds, charging Greece lower interest rates and extending repayment deadlines.
Last week, European leaders granted Greece two extra years to cut its budget deficit. The required extra financing resulted in a clash with the International Monetary Fund, since it would add to Greece’s debt load instead of reducing it.
In the U.S., a Commerce Department report at 8:30 a.m. Washington time may show housing starts in October probably declined from a month earlier. Builders broke ground on 840,000 houses at an annual rate, following an 872,000 pace in September, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey.
BNP retreated 1.6 percent to 40.41 euros and SocGen lost 1.4 percent to 25.42 euros.
Credit Suisse slipped 2.7 percent to 20.98 Swiss francs after saying it will reorganize its investment bank and merge asset management with the private bank to cut costs and reduce complexity.
To contact the reporter on this story: Namitha Jagadeesh in London at njagadeesh@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer at arummer@bloomberg.net
Oh do I have a business for YOU! Remember, I will be in Vegas in July. You and Longhorn will be out there WORKING it for me.
http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2012/aug/08/its-raining-men-male-prostitutes-have-returned-nev/
Hey there DA. Damn, pretty much batted a thousand with all those charts!
Yep, I like long legs myself. (Just ask my wife) In the old days when I had time, I would scan for charts just like you posted. Now, I eye a few and watch them. The beautiful hammers that we got Friday were ALL over. BRY is one I was watching, and of course off by a day. Friggin gapped up!
I was on Langy's board, and jumped into GMCR Calls, which are doing nice now. I also jumped into some CPB Puts, went back to 2011 and found $37 to be a point of resistance. (And it is SOUP, for crying out loud!)
My helmet is strapped so tight, I am getting a square chin!
Hello Lotto people. A CHILLY day in Kandahar. Seeing what I missed while I slept, and will keep you informed while YOU sleep.
I am not usually a flavored coffee guy, but I must admit the Rain Forest Nut was VERY good! It is a fave in the office, I am glad we got about 40 boxes of it!
Have a good night EZ. Hitting the rack out here, an early morning tomorrow.
OK Stuff, hitting the hay. Got GMCR Calls, and CPB puts. CPB dropping now, hope it drops the rest of the day. I mean really, SOUP!
GMCR, hoping for the mother of all short squeezes into earnings next week. What a NICE pop today, that should have the shorts running scared.
See ya all tomorrow, while you sleep!
WAY TO GO LANGY!!
My CPB is dropping, so I am smiling. Hope that GMCR has the mother of short squeezes into earnings. Liking those Calls.
Off to bed, it is late out here. See ya tomorrow!
I don't know WHERE they come from, but we have a NICE amount of Keurig K-Cup cases here in Kandahar. Got me a nice big box of Tully's French Roast, and about 10 12pk boxes of the Keurig assortment you get when you buy a K-Cup. Also got something called Rain Forest Nut.
Looks like a MAJOR short squeeze coming! Jumped into $30 Calls for 1.45 in Dec.
Damn! Every time I sip some water, GMCR is up another 5 cents! There is that 'over $26' with conviction I was looking for. Jumped into $30 calls for for $1.45
LOL. Are you seeing GMCR? Really popping today. I am looking at some DEC $30 Calls. Reports soon, may gap up if they get bang out numbers.
Damn, market is STRONG today, look at GMCR go now! I am looking at some Calls.
Very nice! They clear the $26 point with conviction, and come out with GOOD numbers, GAP FILL at about $30 should be a breeze!
V is starting to look a little double toppy. Profit taking up in this area, especially if cap gains taxes go up, this should drop. Stalking Puts right now, but have not pulled the trigger.
By the way, did you guys really just hang out in the Sauna all weekend and read Bible? Stuff says you had a HOT weekend, so you being all innocent and all, I figured that is what she meant.
You are welcome Langy. Kicked MAJOR butt with the SHLD and SBUX Puts.
The calls were real nice from Sunday, but they all POPPED real hard before the market opened, didn't chase.
Currently just got some CPB $35 calls for December for .25 each. i think the damn soup has gone up enough, and $37 is a resistance point from WAY back in 2011. i mean....friggin SOUP!!
Yep, both Intel and Microsoft REALLY missed the whole phone/tablet explosion. They need to get their heads out of their butts and get with the future. In the long run, I have higher hopes for Intel than I do for Microsoft.
Very nice! I LOVE the REITs, and have been accumulating one of them for YEARS now, which is paying off nicely for my retirement account. (Hoping for nice, small, incremental price rises and dividend rises!)
Apple or Facebook: Which Company to Buy http://t.co/I6PWXZw7
SPY starting to give back, and may go into its HUGE gap. Even if it goes 50% into the gap, STILL a big up day.
I've been going every day to check for packages. Can't wait!
LOL....STOP! That time I was drinking. Innocent LongHorn was reading Bible in the sauna, why it was a HOT weekend. Until they are married, NO HANKY PANKY.
Alright, CPB hit a resistance point of $37. I got $35 DEC puts for .25! Got me 20 of them, I love soup too, but this is ridiculous. GAP to fill below at about $33.50.