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Hi, Fox. Agree...but only partially. It was a fakeout, in my opinion. Price just turned back up at 10:40 and my guess is that we'll challenge Friday's high at some point (maybe up to 1305-1310 at some point today?). Two
NM, any last thoughts re. AA? The stock was down 3.6 percent earlier today; now it's only down a dime and 1.39 percent. Someone likes it and my charts suggest it's on a buy signal. Two
Hog...LOL! I couldn't run as fast and wasn't as smart. Two
Gleno, when I shook LBJ's hand at the height of the Vietnam war in 1969, inside I hated his guts...but outside I put on a good face. Two
Yes, agree, but there weren't too many others (lol). Two
Good thing he didn't hit him! Otherwise, he'd be in for the full three years. Two
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BAGHDAD (AP) - Iraq's highest court on Tuesday reduced the prison sentence for an Iraqi journalist who hurled his shoes at former President George W. Bush from three years to one, a court spokesman said.
Abdul-Sattar Bayrkdar, the spokesman, said the decision was taken because the journalist had no prior criminal history.
The CECD-wave of "meaning" isn't over yet, IMHO. The Fed minutes probably will make it worse, which is understandable. Two
NM, it's been my experience that Da Boyz will always do the opposite of what they believe the majority of traders think. We've had a great rally since March 9 and bulls expect this to continue into the "Happy Easter" period. But Da Boyz may figure the bulls have had sufficient bear meat and it's time to draw in the bears once again. Otherwise, I don't see how Da Boyz can sustain the rally at its previous level of participation? Two
Now, if I were Da Boyz, I'd drive down prices this week and then resume the rally next week, which happens to be OE week. In so doing, I'd get all the bears excited and in their shorts (better than out of their shorts, right?), which would fuel the next stage of the short-covering rally we've had since March 9. Two
Fox, and here I thought Gaussian Copula is what Geithner emits from his mouth when he discusses his many bailout programs? Two
Fox, I'm seeing a fakeout move up at your "238 pivot." It may not go very far. Two
Fox, I used to be quite enamored of the "Hagopian Line," but now I'm inclined toward "Da Pirouette." You make trading so glamorous. I was getting so tired of the old terminology such as Elliott Waves, resistance, trend lines, etc. LOL. Two
NM, I think you may be correct re. AA. You're good, man, and I hope you are right. Two
Hi, RCKS. The reason I ask is because both the daily and 5-min charts suggest to me that, despite AA being down by more than three percent today, it looks like a buy signal(?). I don't follow this stock and for that reason don't trust my charts. But it makes me wonder? Two
NM, am I correct in assuming you expect AA to surprise to the upside? Two
NM, I don't think we've seen the end of the long-stop sweep today. Two
Hi, 2bit. I'm seeing the possibility of a small bump higher tomorrow, then a short decline that will correct this overbought pig. Thanks for sharing your chart. Two
Looks to me like any upside from here will be short-lived and is a fakeout. Ultimately, prices have more downside today, in my opinion. Two
Thanks, 2bit. Good explanation. Looks like your count is correct. Down Monday. Two
Hey, 2bit. A couple of questions. Is your EW count focused on the SPX (or does it include the INDU and NDX, as well)? And when you say "next week," are you thinking today was the top or we have a little higher to go next week? TIA. Two
If you have a few minutes and you're tired of watching your computer screen and the ETF/stock you're trading, here's a revealing blog that focuses on Goldman Sachs and its misdeeds. Two
http://www.goldmansachs666.com/
Hey, Foot. That $NAHGH chart you posted last night was interesting. Two questions: 1) how did you develop this chart and 2) is it still suggesting an NDX top? TIA. Two
What a riot! I wonder who wrote her lyrics, which capture perfectly what it's all about? I don't dare share this with my bride (lol). Two
NM, so what are Da Boyz up to? If they're skimming, they can't be making much money as prices have hardly varied since falling off the early morning high. Lots of indecision in the market, I'd say. Two
RCKS, sure hope I'm alive then to see it all happen (lol). Thanks. Two
Hey, NM. I'm into QID at 43 and wondering? Got very serious sell signals after 12:30 yesterday. Two
Hi, dec212012. Good reason for the NDX to rally (lol). I'm curious about your handle? What will happen on December 21, 2012? Or is that simply a special future occasion on your calendar? TIA. Two
Hindsight is always 20/20, euterpe1. I thought the same, but the 5-min charts indicated the NDX hit yet another s-t bottom before the close on March 30. That was it...and up we went from there. Da Boyz play their games, don't they? Two
We both know the answer to that question. But the market for now rallies and ignores the unemployment numbers, so everyone is happy (except the unemployed). My father used to tell me about the "Hoovervilles" of unemployed and homeless folks that cropped up during the depression. We may eventually see their equivalent. I wonder if they'll be called "Obamavilles" or "Bushvilles"? (The latter would be more appropriate, I think.) Two
I think at some point during the next six months, lots of Americans may start demonstrating in the streets (we saw a little taste of this the other day at the G20 conf. in London). Particularly if unemployment moves into the 15-20 percent range. Of course, the government is prepared to handle "unfriendly demonstrations." I saw the power of such demonstrations while working in D.C. as a young man during the 1960s. Two
Mike Shedlock, better known as "Mish," discusses how we, the taxpayers, will soon be buying $500 billion in toxic assets. Guess who is the real beneficiary of Geithner's plan? Two
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Geithner's Gift To Pimco
Geithner's Heist America Plan is receiving words of self-serving praise from Pimco's Bill Gross. Indeed, Geithner’s Non-Recourse Gift Keeps on Giving to Bill Gross.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s plan to rid banks and markets of devalued assets may be a boon for Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross.
The plan may reward investors with 20 percent annual returns on “really toxic” mortgages bought at 45 cents on the dollar by allowing them to borrow six times their money with “non-recourse” government-backed debt, New York-based Credit Suisse Group AG analysts Carl Lantz and Dominic Konstam wrote in a March 27 report. That loan would be worth 15 cents to an investor seeking the same return who can’t use borrowed money.
“This is perhaps the first win/win/win policy to be put on the table,” Gross, co-chief investment officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, said in an e-mailed statement last week.
Geithner’s plan may already be working. Top-rated commercial-mortgage bonds rose 5.6 percent since March 20 to about 79 cents on the dollar on average, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes. The most-senior class of benchmark 2005 securities backed by fixed-rate Alt-A home loans, or those ranked between prime and subprime, increased about 12 percent to 54 cents as of March 31, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
Representative Spencer Bachus of Alabama, the top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee, said in an April 1 interview that the distribution of half of the profits to the investor “does bother me.”
“But even beyond that, what bothers me even more is it’s taxpayer money,” Bachus said. “What you are doing is artificially inflating the price of those assets because at the present prices the financial institutions won’t sell them.”
‘Taxpayer Loses’
Nobel prize-winning economists Paul Krugman, a professor at Princeton University in Princeton, New Jersey, and Joseph Stiglitz, a professor at the Business School of Columbia University in New York, blasted Geithner’s plan for putting the taxpayer on the hook for losses with what they say is little likelihood of success.
“The Geithner plan works only if and when the taxpayer loses big time,” Stiglitz wrote in the New York Times this week. “With the government absorbing the losses, the market doesn’t care if the banks are ‘cheating’ them by selling their lousiest assets, because the government bears the cost.”
Krugman wrote in the Times last month that “Obama is squandering his credibility” with the plan.
‘We intend to participate and do our part to serve clients as well as promote economic recovery,’’ Pimco’s Gross said in the e-mail.
I seldom agree with Krugman but Obama is indeed "squandering his credibility”. And Stiglitz certainly nails it with “The Geithner plan works only if and when the taxpayer loses big time.”
Thus we must be careful to evaluate what Gross means when he says “This is perhaps the first win/win/win policy to be put on the table.”
Previously I proclaimed Geithner's Plan Can Succeed. However, "success" must be defined in terms of the plan's goals.
The Plan: Dump $500 billion of toxic assets on to unsuspecting taxpayers via a public-private partnership in which 93% of the losses are born by the taxpayer so that bondholders are made whole.
Yesterday, More Ugly Details Emerge On "Geithner's Heist America Plan"
The whole scheme is not really a bidding process at all but rather backroom political dealing by the "Good Ole Boys" on how to split the pie.
Pie Splitting Rules
1) Bail out the banks at taxpayer expense
2) Do so at the least possible cost to the major bondholders (not the taxpayer)
The more players (hedge funds, etc.) one ads to the backroom poker game, the harder it is to accomplish rule number 2. This explains Geithner's steep rules for entry into the club.
Exclusive Invitation Only Club
And it's not just the small players excluded from the poker game.
I have it from a reliable source "They are excluding large (over $25 billion) hedge funds, who would have the sophistication and resources to look under the Kimono and declare with vicious authority that the emperor has no clothes."
They are very emphatically not letting in big boys who had not previously been foolish enough invest in this crap. They only want big boys with a vested interest in propping up bank bondholders.
The only way into the "club" is to have demonstrated prior foolishness in a major way, somewhere along the line.
Pimco Needs A New Name
‘We intend to participate and do our part to serve clients as well as promote economic recovery,’’ Pimco’s Gross said in the e-mail.
I think Pimco needs a name change. Does PimpCo work?
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Thanks for sharing that info, Gleno, I'll set up a chart and see how it works. Two
Respectfully disagree, Gleno. My experience has indicated that they usually lie during a strong market move, especially when breadth and buying are very strong. The CCI-144 could now taper off from its present level to, say, 100 and the price might still go up at some point. I want to see what happens when the price drops down to the EMA 34/50 levels on the same chart, as well as whether EMA 3/8 crosses hold water, so to speak. Two
I saw that, Gleno, but other indicators I use on the 5-min chart tell me it's a fakeout move. Two
I can't tell you how many times I have written personal letters and emails to Congressmen and others in government. And how many times I've called them and discussed subjects ranging from bailouts to bonuses. They don't like me because I can puncture their lies and misstatements. They really don't want to hear from an informed electorate. Nor do they have the time or inclination to respond, except through form letters prepared by flak PR staffers. I agree that if more people communicated with them it might have an impact. But they're already inundated to the point where they can't--or won't--respond in any meaningful way. Have you had success with your communications? Two
It's beatable...a good portion of the time. But, as I recall either gloe or Nocona stating many times, you have to trade what you see and not what you think. That's really the hardest part of this game. Trusting what you see. Two
Agree...and if you look at my last post yesterday (to NM) you'll see that I called for more upside in the a.m. I just didn't think we'd see this much upside? So, to be cautious, I went to cash like an idiot. Should have believed in my charts. (I've said that before to myself...lol.) Two
Gleno, as I look at my NDX daily charts, they suggest even more upside ahead...but they also suggest a top is near. I agree: either today or tomorrow (although, I think tomorrow will be it). Two
gloe, I heard the Lewis interview and found him to be very disingenuous at best. He underplayed all the crippling economic and social issues facing the U.S. and the world, and overplayed the role of banks in providing loans and helping citizens/businesses. Ms. Quick didn't ask him one hard question, or even bring up any of BA's miscues and questionable transactions during the past 18 months. What a farce! Two
Very useful, POKERSAM. My ancestors who fought in the Revolutionary War thought differently about the ballot box being the "only solution" to their grievances with England. Unfortunately, those we elect to high office do not do the will of the people, but instead pander to the special interest groups and big money. Our nation has lost its compass. Two