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Oh my, if a stock with almost 190M OS lacks volume...I would be disgusted financially at the sole idea...
So you are buying the stock at these prices?
Last time someone reported some buys in here they were in the amount range that made me laugh for a couple of days, let's hope your buys mean buys!
You know that quite a few people that were very positive on the stock and informed it that they were buying some time ago, now don't post on the MB anymore? Uhm...why?
Not sure. The trial states:
"Secondary Outcome Measures:
The secondary objective is to compare overall survival and time to disease progression between DCVax-L treated and control patients"
IMO it gives some room for interpretation and hopefully some interesting results.
you write:
"The challenge is that mathematically, many people don't really understand, what their stock is and how it works, and that's why concepts like "dilution", and other ideas that shorts tend to drop about this time in a microcap's lifecycle, can often seem to make a stock unattractive"
I believe that there are many things IMO that make to me a stock unattractive, for instance: how much you dilute and how often you do it. It's quite mathematically clear that if you dilute often, well...you should know what selfulfilling expectations are in economics/finance, don't you? To me it's unattractive to have the SEC with what has been called "investigation" in the 10K, relating to "the Company’s membership on Nasdaq and delisting, related party matters, internal controls and the Company’s Special Litigation Committee"
However, if you see things that you find attractive and you don't mind dilution, you are free to step up and buy big chunks of the stock. However, current volume hasn't shown the majority of investors to have done it.
It might be, IMO. I would have preferred OS to be the primary endpoint, obviously, because it is now quite clear that immunotherapy needs time to release its effects. In case of a failed primary and a robust secondary, it's hard to imagine how the market will react to the news, I mean, the current price doesn't reflect at all any good news on that front IMO. Moreover, even with the same PFS of placebo and a robust OS, why shouldn't the product find a market, even if smaller, in the GBM world?
Ok, now please someone post that 70 to 80$ target price once again and that's it.
Flipper, IMO people are seeing ghosts all around. Seriously, first Wolfpack mistery actions, then illogical theories about NW, then BP, every single time one new story comes out. I don't know how you could still be so positive after reading the last 10K, really.
BP pulling out the stops? Wolfpack? I think I have heard this excuses too many times. Probably you don't realize that the problem right here IMO is cash, not science itself!
There are a few things I agree with you, and a few others I don't, but even if I do or not, that won't change things anyway.
I believe cash burn is currently very low for the trial at its current status right now, and I believe it is possible that they're burning only 2M of cash at the moment, thus they might currently have something like 6M+ left, which could push the co. well through the end of May/mid June.
But a couple of million doesn't really change things, does it?
This is a co. that right now, with a 50 to 100M cash injection in my opinion could be even be worth at around 300 to 400M in market cap.
One other thing that I note is that in my opinion the co. doesn't most likely have the cash to run any other trial (other than the PIII) at all, and this puts the company to a crossroad:
1) Either continue with dilution, which would put current shareholders to a position where IMO they will never recoup their investment;
2) Strike a striking deal with BMS for PII combo trial with L and with potential commercialization of the monotherapy, while PII and PIII combo trials go ahead;
3) Strike a partnership deal with any other partner who would be interested to start some PII trials for Direct;
4) Lease-back its UK property in order to raise some much needed cash;
5) Merge with another company.
I believe that if OS numbers for L in GBM PIII, even with a failed PFS (where by failing I mean the same control numbers), come in strong as supposed (with 25% of long tail living much longer than normally expected), there could be IMO a market for DcVax as a monotherapy but right now, while everybody seems focused into the science, I would focus much more into the finance numbers, which I didn't find to be very reassuring at all.
This is my view.
Why saying continously "we" in the article and then disclosing that "we have no position in the stock". We whom?
That's correct.
If the timeframe you point out is correct then it makes some sense. However the co. could have just perhaps enrolled the remaining 17 patients in EU. Anyhow, phantasy or reality, why not step up and disclose what the halt was about? At this point IMO not knowing is worse than a bad news itself. And if the news is not bad, then why not disclose it?
BTW in the 10K they stated that mOS is 15 months for SOC. IMO at this point it is very unlikely that mOS of the PIII trial isn't much longer than that, though I still have some doubts about mPFS.
However if memory serves me correct Optune was approved in October '15 and the halt was in August '15, so timeframes don't match up. The theory is indeed interesting, but I have the idea it must be something else.
You are wrong as those warrants aren't prepaid.
Interesting theory. However, if this is the case, since there's nothing bad about it, why shouldn't the co. disclose it? That would help quite a bit to have some clarification.
It's quite obvious that whoever wanted to "move the stock down" today didn't even had that many resources, as the stock right now is down with about 300K value on 1.5M shares. Right now 1.5 shares on a bit less than 190M is nothing, obviously, but this doesn't change IMO the very urgent need the co. has for money. Let's see in the coming weeks if some news about the BMS combo trial will finally arrive (or any other partnerhips that could bring in some upfront payments).
Also from the 10K and last year's PR:
From the 10K, on Direct:
"we are planning to proceed with at least two Phase II trials of DCVax-Direct in different cancers, if resources permit"
Last Year's PR:
https://www.nwbio.com/nw-bio-announces-operations-updates/
So the pipeline should IMO be pretty active, with still 2 combo trials with L to be announced (one with BMS, as suggested by clinicaltrials.gov registered trial) and 2 trials with Direct to be announced.
In my opinion, after reading the 10K, best choice would be to partner at least 2 (if not all 4 trials) with a BP, in order to have some upfront payments and to speed up to market asap.
From the recent 10K:
"We have recently also been exposed to claims (without a lawsuit) by a competitor asserting or implying (and commentaries by third parties based on the claims by our competitor) that a patent issued to our competitor covers our products. We believe these claims to be without merit. However, if a lawsuit for infringement were brought against us, there can be no assurance that a judge or jury would agree with our position, and in any event such litigation would be expensive and time consuming."
Does anyone know more?
It might IMO simply be related to a "participation in future financing" clause of some previous raises.
RK, one of the very few reasonable explanations seen so far lately, in a sea of dreaming posts. You always write balanced posts.
While I did read some of your posts with curiosity and interest, especially the ones with enrolling numbers, this tab is not only a dreaming one, but it is also IMO totally non-sense, and IMO extremely misleading (though obviously I understand it is not your intention to). Moreover, valuing a company at total market penetration numbers and a 10X sales on mature numbers would make any real investor feel stomachache. I understand you probably just wanted to give out an idea, but IMO you are playing the dreamers' game like this.
Should tell this to whoever posted those numbers which are not, obviously, my ones.
Should tell this to whoever posted those numbers which are not, obviously, my ones.
It's quite curious how some people on this MB talk about off-label use of a drug for which not only the FDA hasn't approved yet the drug itself, not only the co. hasn't released PIII results yet, but the trial is still ongoing with events accumulating for secondary endpoint.
I understand that dreaming sometimes helps to build speculation, but dreaming of a dream is IMO a bit too much.
Going public about the reason would lift some uncertainty on the matter that I believe has hit many shareholders. The FDA IMO didn't admit at all, by lifting the recruitment hold, that they were wrong. I believe they had a going concern and by the time they lifted they simply didn't have it anymore, for reasons that we don't know. I don't agree that the matter is history at this point, as it would help many shareholders to understand what went on and thus they could possibly re-evaluate (in a positive or negative matter) their investment.
That range came down to 12-30$, but I suspect it could be adjusted again.
I believe the co. should file a sec filing informing shareholders once for all why the clinical hold was put in place and why it has been lifted. That will close this matter once for good.
While I do agree that another round of dilution would be IMO a disaster for current shareholders, current market cap would IMO suggest that the stock is somehow undervalued. If you compare it to ARGS before trial results, this should trade IMO at around 0.9 to 1$ per share. Surely some bad news on immunotherapies WW didn't help, but if some sort of efficacy is there, and with some possible news on Direct and combo trials, the price should recover a bit. I say should, because you never know, obviously, and this is why I am personally anxiously awaiting on some possible/potential announcement of the combo trial partnership to come, in the coming weeks.
Let's see if this offload:
http://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/bristol-myers-offloads-anti-tau-dmd-assets-to-biogen-roche-for-470m-upfront-615m-milestones
will convince BMS to put up some nice money on more oncology programmes, like the combo PII trial which is IMO quite ready to start with NWBO, with a partnership with some upfront payment.
I believe next week we should finally have some details of this PII programme or, in the worst case scenario, IMO anyhow within April.
If numbers are somehow positive and there's indeed some sort of efficacy, the hardest part would be to come up with something that is statistically strong enough to take into account the crossover arm. This is why I believe that data lock and analysis period won't be as short as many in here suggest.
So you mean there are 14.000 cases in the USA, 14.000 cases in EU, they sum up to 28.000 cases to which you apply a 110K/treatment and voilà my 3B in revenues. Uhm...ok...so don't even mind about taking into account targeting subgroup population, market penetration, peak sales, competition, price fluctuations, and so on. Why don't you go back to look at EL and apply your reasoning to that stock and tell us what astronomical price would you end up to have if you apply your reasoning right straight up to that stock? Sorry, but modeling (and potential market caps/price to sales) doesn't work like that.
The good thing that I note, however, is that in a couple of posts you already went down to a potential range price of 70-80$ per share to a range of 12-30$ per share. Ok no, this is not funny.
Yes, any security would be adjusted likewise.
So far IMO, I can't say you are wrong, but that combo trial is there, listed on clinicaltrials.gov, which the two co. that seem to need each other's tech, and a trial that should start imminently.
Also if you notice, usually a partnership is announce well ahead of the start of a clinical trial, not this time. Trial is listed, ready to start, but nothing has been officially announced. I believe terms are being finalised, and will be known very soon (I estimate next week and anyhow within April). Let us not forget that IMO if BMS isn't able to revamp asap its oncology portfolio strenght, it might lose competition to Merck and end up, IMO, bought out.
If this partnership (with upfront payment) doesn't happen in a timely short period of time, then yes, I agree with you that another dilution might come and that will IMO very adversely affect current shareholders.
LOL 70's 80's please be serious.
Great, and did you discuss about the speculating timeline?
What do you guys think of this?
Hope DcVax is somehow effective and can go to market asap.
I share your same worries.
At this point it is most likely IMO that after the Yonemura case will be settled they might IMO announce the end of the investigation with no wrongdoing.
Now that volume seem to be finally dried up, next week would be a perfect week to release some good news.
I am still waiting to see what they have to announce with BMS about the PII combo trial, supposed to start in April as for clinicaltrials.gov (someone speculated May, and that would be fine, too), and still to be announced publicly (most important will be the presence or not of some eventual upfront payment or not).
My argument isn't stronger, IS SIMPLY THE ONLY ONE YOU SHOULD HAVE ONCE YOU READ CORRECTLY THE SLIDE, YOUR READ WAS SIMPLY WRONG! Better?