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Pretty solid close. Very little retracement. No gap to fill Monday. If we get over $1.75 we will likely see a run at 6 month high of $1.87. FOMO Friday!
We have only been above $1.75 once this year, briefly on March 15th. A close above that would be significant. Let's go FOMO power hour!!!!
Nice to see this continue into lunch trading. Bigger offers to get through so I still expect a pull back before power hour run!
Last 4 runs to and through $1.70 (in March) were pushed back hard. This might be the one that closes higher and sticks....so much happening next week.
I wouldn't call it a run yet. Lots of resistance for every penny. If there is an uptick of buying mid afternoon, we could see the $1.58 takedown.
Dave Innes Has told me that on the phone for 7 months. Not a mystery. I don't like it, but it is not new.
Decent bid at $1.51 with little selling. If we hold here I believe we could see a little run EOD. JMHO.
LOL. They have told us they are in a quiet period for 7 months. What are you talking about?
In the meantime, from a technical analysis and psychological perspective, here's what I see:
1. FOMO Friday-10Q due Monday, ASM Tuesday afternoon.
2. Closed above 50DMA and 100DMA two days in a row.
3. A run from here with support above 50/100DMA's is positive as is the trend.
4. $1.58 next resistance and would pop if we get through it. I expect heavy resistance.
What are the chances we hear ANYTHING new at ASM next week?
1. When was the company unblinded?
2. How many patients still alive?
3. Timeline of any kind on topline?
4. Journal-selected? In process?
5. Share increase?
6. BLA submission?
7. 10Q?
What if LP is hedging mediocre data to build out Sawston to turn NWBO into a small cognate in the UK? That is the scary part of the silence IMO. And, I believe more transparency on topline release would be helpful to dispel that. Certainly after "planning" to release topline almost a year ago and then changing course upon data lock.
From the PR:
"The process outlined in the Company’s October 5, 2020 announcement relating to the Phase III trial of DCVax-L is continuing to move forward. The process includes review and analysis of the raw data by independent statisticians and experts, and preparation of summaries of the Trial results for review by the Company, the Principal Investigator, the Steering Committee of the Trial, the Scientific Advisory Board, and a panel of independent brain cancer experts in preparation for public announcement and scientific publication."
They then state:
"The Company continues to be in a quiet period while this process is under way. The Company appreciates shareholders’ patience, and their understanding that the Company cannot make partial disclosures during this process and cannot comment on the Phase III trial schedule or its data until the announcement of the results. We remain committed to completing the full plan outlined on October 5, 2020."
I detest the way they write their PR's. There was no "full plan" outlined in the October PR. Topline and Journal. that was the plan.
As far as the quiet period (self-imposed), there are only TWO processes in the plan.
1. Prepare the summaries of trial results and deliver to NWBO..."unblinding." This had to have happened by end of 2020 at latest, IMO.
2. Concurrent review by the "Company, the Principal Investigator, the Steering Committee of the Trial, the Scientific Advisory Board, and a panel of independent brain cancer experts." How long could that possibly take?
3. Is topline and Journal
Why can't they say where we are in the process? Ridiculous, IMO.
My question is, given the always ambiguous language of their PR's:
They are saying October 2021 for completion of the manufacturing process. Are they lumping in topline data to this timeframe?
Great in theory but not possible in reality. The 4 RA's did go green on SAP revisions...not that they do anything more than comment. You seem to be suggesting they will submit for approval in all four and not disclose topline until all four approve? Never done that way in the history of biotech, to my knowledge. They have been hinting all along (and activities show, sawston, etc.) that UK may be first. Probably true, but cannot get approval without data to submit and I highly doubt they will bury toplien data while waiting for an RA review.
LP was 100% referring to the SAP "buy-in" from all four RA's. She publicly stated (and in PR's) we would have topline by August, September, etc. The change in course happened as data lock happened. They simply want iron clad topline with peer-reviewed Journal at the same time.
Yes, but that one took 9 months. If nwbo was unblinded by December 1st, for example, this is only 6 months...if they started shopping it immediately. Maybe faster process for full phase 3 readout data rather than interim blinded?
It's not interim to me. Easy to say when you started in August. I'm seven years deep in this and want topline. Period. The nonsense from NWBO mgmt and IR is deafening.
I believe that. However, 7+ months past data lock with zero trial updates is a problem, IMO. Not with positive data, but certainly with PPS.
It's amazing to me how this is being held down. Who in the world is selling right now? 5 trading days from 10Q, 6 trading days from ASM and the start of several Linda Liau talks leading up to ASCO. Makes no sense.
I hope we don't have an abstract at ASCO. It means no embargo. I want TLD prior to ASCO and then just presentations at the "booth" about results. Hopefully even Journal article prior to.
So we stayed right there at $1.45. Not enough volume to get it moving back up. I am hoping to see a large increase in volume as the week goes on, and a move up in PPS. If I don't see it, I have to believe we will have another nothing-burger next week.
tight range for the last three hours. Which way do we break at close? High of day or back to where we started again?
I believe our qualifying price will be just fine after TLD and sustainable through uplisting. I am not worried about that. We need to get over $5 to get some institutional buying to take some of the volatility out of the PPS and keep it where it should be after positive TLD. DI has been saying for years there is institutional interest, but not at this price. If they are truly waiting in the wings for topline and a move over $5, that catalyst alone would sustain the PPS for uplisting. JMHO.
Yes, LP, LG and the lot could agree not hold all options and warrants for a period of time which would de-risk the over-allotment. It would allow time to make whatever deal they are exploring. IMO, going it alone would be a LP ego play and not a benefit to GBM patients. There is no scenario where I see the treatment getting to patients faster going it alone. Partnerships are a possibility, but again, a longer road and less value to shareholders, IMO. A buyout is the best for patients and shareholders, IMO. And the "comments" from DI stating they are working towards the best outcome for patients and shareholders points me in the buyout direction.
Yes, regardless of PPS, NWBO has obligation to deliver more shares than authorized. Two things may happen that could avoid a share authorization increase:
It would take at least 200 million potential shares combined below...
1. Option grants expire (not likely) for Mgmt.
2. Warrants expire without conversion (again, not likely as all are in the money).
Now, LP could let some of hers go, but I would doubt it.
I think we get topline, journal, start of RA approval process, then buy out. No need for R/S.
Another low volume, down day. Signing off until next Monday.
Well, we have our three hammers. Would have been more positive if today's fully engulfed yesterday's. 50DMA and 100DMA are still the resistance although they are coming back to us. Only need to get over $1.45 and close there and it would be a trend change. Of Course, MM's know that too, thus the heavy ask and suppression, IMO.
Agreed.
Would be nice to be going against the grain of the market and finish green.
Yes, Market being down big doesn't help. I'd be thrilled if we hang on near $1.40 for a close today.
You weren't mean. It's fine.
Yep. Lost my younger brother to GBM Feb 2014. Found the company while looking for options for treatment.
And, I've been in the stock since 2014, just not on ihub. Yes, I have averaged down. If they said 7 yrs for results 7 yrs ago, fine. Just not happy with communication from company and that has been my consistent message for years.
??? Not sure what you mean. Observations of mine based on what I am seeing and the activity of the stock. Doesn't change my investment strategy at this point, nor diminish my frustration with the lack of communication from mgmt. Simply as valid an opinion as any other speculation out there.