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Monk, really? Take a look at North Italy and how fast things explode once the virus starts transmitting person to person -- they are on lockdown for a reason, the hospitals are overwhelmed for a reason.
Then take a look at Washington state where people are still moving to and from, all around this country... Fatalities and known cases means hundreds, perhaps thousands, with the virus. They closed the University of Washington campuses for a reason... yet no travel bans into WA? Incredible.
The horse is very much out of the gate, only gets worse from here over the next six weeks all across the country...
Oil and gas stocks absolutely cratering... OXY 30% down before open
Trump administration looks like it will do nothing till November election -- will it do anything after that? Who knows...
All the court action that is scheduled is for 2021
Trump is till digging a hole everyday by denying a pandemic developing around him... Joe Biden has Parrot as one of his housing advisers -- okay, Biden is friends with Gary Hindes but Trump was backed by John Paulsen and where did it get him?
I am holding my FnF pref, but I think it may be 2021 for a resolution now...
Down goes everything, but common will go much faster I am afraid -- under $2 coming
Add the warrant shares in and you have 19 billion shares.
Then add the number of shares from any secondary offering...
At that point you are closer to the number of future shares -- going to be 25-30 billion plus.
Red? A sea of blood...
Going to be more weeks with better bargains imho -- the virus won't go exponential in the US for a couple of weeks. THEN we will see a proper panic...
London down 6-8% this morning
Going to be a long week, my retirement accounts are all in cash (and the rest is all FnF pref) but I don't think this week is going to be the bottom imho. But good to enter gently, since who knows?
Muahahaha!!!!!
Thanks, I will get after it...
Navy, yes, and still going down... now very much worth re-financing, IF you can get someone to do it since most bank now beyond capacity
I have to keep calling around
As long as your name is not Icarus - soar!
Doc, nice new catchphrase...
The modus operandi for these federal Judges appears to be -- what factors can mean I do not have to rule? If there are any such factors, they will use them
So Atlas is probably waiting on Selia Law ruling, and/or Sweeney...
Painful stuff
Biden will have a strong chance to beat Trump, and has the slime creature Jim Parrot on his housing team it appears, so Mnuchin and Calabria need to act - though maybe they wait till after election appears to be the thought from some
One wonders what is going on with Mnuchin and one presumes Trump...
Is Judge Atlas even alive? What have we heard, if anything, from Judge Atlas?
“Fascinating”, Rumple are you kidding? This was testimony to what a bizarre system this is... No one really knows what the criteria are lol
5 minute meeting, they agreed to meet again in "1-2 weeks" when something gets done...
FYI, I called about re-fi my mortgage this morning.
My bank quoted me a higher mortgage rate. I said "WHAT!" -- they said so many people are now re-financing that they put their internal rate up. (Told me to wait a couple of weeks...)
So going to be huge boost to FnF business again this quarter, too, IMHO
Yikes...
But reported cases undercounts, so hopefully mortality is lower - otherwise very very bad...
-4
Lol, no argument, no evidence, just bluster...
2-3% mortality versus 0.2%? Yeah, fake news...
TRCPA, only midday, give him a chance -- Mark has trouble getting dressed and out of the house...
So maybe Mark will manage to rain all over the parade in the PM?
That's the spirit - no fear! TRIPLE TRAIN...
Let's put in a double bottom lol
Don't do the the triple trains, people think they are cursed lol
H Nats, one might wonder whether Calabria is interested in giving a straight answer? And one might also wonder whether any answer he gives is worth anything at all?
I am done on speculating with Dr. Calabria since you cannot rely on what the good Doctor says. That is, imho, a potentially terminal condition for a regulator charged with maintaining order, trust and stability in a financial market.
What about the administration's approach? It looks like they want final judicial rulings mandating they must act before they do that - or possibly anything including the capital rule. Maybe that makes sense politically, but it pushes us out to June and July at the earliest.
One can also ask: Is there any cost to Treasury/Mnuchin/administration in waiting for SCOTUS ruling? The ruling will just mandate a reversal of NWS -- but that is a positive for Treasury/Mnuchin/administration since they want political cover for action. There is no extra monetary cost, since returning money, reversing NWS and SPS, is necessary for RnR anyway.
So, imho, they are going to wait on SCOTUS ruling in Summer.
What do they do next, and what court will order action on reversing FHFA action and in what time frame will such actions be mandated? (Because it looks like we needs courts forcing actions on this administration...). Those are more interesting questions to be than what Calabria might say, since what Calabria says will happen is not indicative of what will happen
Hi Navy, we have to rely on SCOTUS for action in 2020, I am positive like you.
I also think the election result is assured, but I think we differ over what we think the result is going to be -- in itself that should tell us both this is a very fluid environment politically.
Anyway, fingers crossed SCOTUS acts as the conservative majority's views would suggest -- and Bill Maloni looks more and more right on Calabria's Fifth Column at FHFA
Holdenwalker now says that the "Big Bang", of settlement, SPSA amendment, consent order, etc come after Nov election
Thing is, you then have two option: Trump win or Trump loses, now look at what is likely under those
If Trump loses, then one wonders whether Mnuchin and Calabria have the motivation to push "Big Bang" through. Dems will scream like stuck pigs, Mnuchin may be concerned.
In the other agency, FNMA's own fifth column can be found with Mark Calabria - does Calabria even want an RnR? In Nov, after Trump loss, Calabria knows he is going to be fired in January and is going back to Cato Institute or TBTF job -- is his welcome increased or lessened by facilitating RnR? Scary thought
If Trump wins, things look better. Mnuchin implements publicized plan, Calabria can see three more years a Director if he behaves himself
Looks like election result is pretty important, sadly.
So, then pushes u back to how might Seilia Law judgement change things? IF SCOTUS strikes down Consumer Bureau with retrospective remedy, that looks like it rolls over to FHFA -- such a retrospective remedy would force NWS reversal and leave Treasury owing FnF $100 billion plus.
Looks like Treasury needs to act after such a judgement -- how fast do they need to do that? At the least they do need to do something since they no way want $100 billion cash going anywhere, so SPS and warrants come into play and hence RnR of some kind is mandated. But how fast? Summer? or after Fall election? In this case, Mnuchin can now plead court mandated action... But you still need to worry about the Calabria Fifth Column sabotaging everything...
Anybody got thoughts on how fast Treasury might need to act after Seilia loss in June/July?
Calabria goes back on Q1 capital rule - Bloomberg article has Calabria saying capital rule may slip Q1.
Calabria either does not learn (do not keep giving dates you miss!) or this is a deliberate sabotage of the RnR process. Incompetence or conspiracy...
I tend to thinking he is incompetent at this point, Calabria has shredded any reputation or credibility he may have had - the boy can get nothing done
You guys are working hard this weekend - are you getting overtime?
Rumple, I agree that Calabria is implicitly using the capital rule as leverage -- whether that is against plaintiffs or Mnuchin I do not know. Maybe Calabria is slow walking Mnuchin, but then I don't think he has the stones for that... so like you say they are waiting for March 3 and using capital rule as pressure on plaintiffs.
The tough talk of Calabria last week does look like an opening offer in talks, ie the worst case for plaintiffs, and then you negotiate up from there. THAT would be encouraging, rather than discouraging, since talks are imminent
But we shall see, thank you for your thoughts, since I am still trying to figure out where we are, best, Potty
TRCPA, the rule is claimed to come out by end of March, then 60 days, then can finalize... Why Calabria is now talking about the end of year to finalize, rather than June or July? Pulling the chain of plaintiffs -- settle or we string this out to President Biden (Parrot is housing adviser) or President Sanders (who everything thinks is "radical"...)
Lol, he is a survivor...
Either that or Calabria is putting leverage on plaintiffs...
Market was waiting to correct, pretty frothy -- so this was the trigger and also a concern in itself it appears
Yup, going to be very disruptive indeed. Probably for a long time, i.e. 3-4 months...
Not sure whether the travel lockdowns really help once the cat is out of the bag
Afternoon will be better, Monday probably still better...
thanks
The flu has 0.2 % mortality rate, this has 2-3 % -- so 10 times worse FYI
My point was, that if you are not on one of those suits, then you may not know if there are settlement talks ongoing in them...
lol, if you ain't called Fairholme or Collins, I don't think your suit matters - no offense
But thank you for the comment