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PC re VPHM and Yahoo post:
I have no problem opening the link and do not know what else to do to link it. The message is #35070 on the Yahoo message board for VPHM.
Steve
NGPS:
Up another 3-4% again today.
Steve
VPHM:
Informative post from the Yahoo board:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=707...
Steve
NGPS:
A stock with an exciting history during the past year, and a decent current PE. I note that it has received mention here in the past.
It is up today, although the reason is unclear. Cramer apparently recommended a Novatel stock, but there is some question which one he meant (i.e., NGPS or NVTL). Whatever stock Cramer meant, NGPS is a supplier to the following project, and may (should?) be up on its own merits:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aXmntXzOylMg&refer=europe
Steve
Bobwins re VPHM:
It could be that the company was reluctant to hazard an estimate because they have seen how much support the stock has in the VMC Pick Six Lotto 1. The action in the stock is bound to be ferocious on June 30, as the competitors vying for the (as yet to be determined) prize will be shorting or buying the stock with a vengeance.
By the way, what are we playing for? Is this a t-shirt thing? Also, is it too late to consider a prize for the worst performance? Just thinking ahead . . .
Steve
bbotcs re VPHM:
Don't know about you, but it's my day job.
The company needs to be very careful here. As Bobwins has pointed out, a major factor in the Monte Carlo simulation, and thus in the size of the charge to earnings that will occur in Q2, is the price of the stock on June 30. To give even a range of what that charge is likely to be, some assumption must be made about the stock price at the close on June 30. With all the conversion shares that are out there right now, including the autoconverts, there is a decent chance that the stock will experience extremely heavy selling pressure during the next 3 days. I find it hard to fault those on the call for not hazarding a guess about the number.
I do wish that the company had reported today on Vancocin sales for the quarter -- at least the results for the first 2 months of the quarter. These numbers must be known (or knowable) by now. Everything that was said on the call about Vancocin demand was positive -- extra hospitals, no evidence of seasonality, etc. -- but I didn't hear any concrete numbers.
All in all, though, an encouraging and reassuring call. I am very impressed with how this whole thing has been orchestrated, and with management generally.
Steve
Bobwins re VPHM:
I'm sure he acted on legal advice by not suggesting a number or range.
Steve
Uranium and DRTK:
I note that Len posted about this stock in February. It is about the same price now that it was then, after reporting good Q1 numbers:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050427/earns_duratek.html?.v=1
The second quarter of 2005 has seen a huge jump in the spot price of uranium:
http://www.cameco.com/investor_relations/ux_history/index.php
With a trailing PE of about 15, it may still be a little pricey for some.
It is the only publicly traded company I've been able to find whose revenues are entirely from uranium services. Market cap is about $332 million.
Any thoughts, Len?
Steve
Len:
I am assuming that this is winner take all -- that there is no glory (or whatever else we are playing for) in finishing second.
With that assumption:
VPHM
MPAD
HSTM
VSYS
MFIC, and, in the spirit of this contest,
UBET
To assist in confirming that VSYS qualifies, a link to Q1 2005 financial:
http://www.viscount.com/form10qsb-March31,2005.htm
Net income was a whopping CDN$27,000!
Finally, whatever the prize, I am rooting for everyone who has PDGE.
Steve
GEMS and Russell indices:
In reviewing the latest (presumably close to final) list of companies -- posted yesterday -- that will be added to Russell 3000 index, I note that GEMS is on it. Yesterday's action in this stock may be a result of rebalancing in Russell 3000 ETFs and mutual funds. Frankly, I'm not sure if the strategy at this late date is to buy those being added, sell those being added, look for bargains among those that have been deleted, or ignore the event altogether as temporary noise.
The "preliminary" new Russell Microcap Index was updated yesterday as well. At the link below, you can access a White Paper comparing performance of stocks that would have been in this new index during the past 5 years or so, had it existed, with the actual performance of the Russell 2000 Index (smallcaps) during those years; may be old news to some here, but I found it interesting:
http://www.russell.com/US/Indexes/US/Reconstitution/microcap_adds.asp
Seems likely that this new index will itself soon be mirrored in mutual funds and ETFs.
Steve
GEMS:
Up about 3-4% today on good volume.
Qualifies for mention on this board by the skin of its teeth. However, growth possibilities look quite promising.
http://www.investor.reuters.com/CompanyFinancialHighlights.aspx?ticker=GEMS&target=%2fstocks%2ff...
Steve
CULS:
CULS recommended in Motley Fool's Hidden Gems, which came out at noon today:
"Cost-U-Less (Nasdaq: CULS), which was started by Costco alums, focuses on island economies that can support one or two giant-box stores but are too small to attract much competition. The company's considerable free cash flow is hidden on the income statement by large depreciation expenses. With 6.1% same-store sales growth this year, Cost-U-Less is sort of the opposite of Watch List pick Cost Plus — it likely doesn't have the explosive growth potential but does have buttoned-up markets where it can generate immense recurring cash flow. This past year's free cash flow was understated for two reasons: $3.6 million in inventory and nearly $2 million in expenses related to a relocated store that recently opened in St. Croix.
Cost-U-Less is cautiously opening new stores. But even with current operations, the stock should trade closer to $10 per share than today's price of around $7."
Explains today's volume. May be good for another $1+ per share from here in the near term.
Steve
Bobwins re VPHM:
Any reaction to today's Form 4s? There are four of them, including the one linked below:
http://phoenix.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=92320&p=irol-SECText&TEXT=aHR0cDovL2NjYm4uMT...
Left identical post at Yahoo, if you would rather respond there.
Thanks.
Steve
CULS:
Up about 8%+ on good volume.
Steve
researcher59 re STV:
My timing was far from perfect, as I was caught by surprise that $8.50 - $9.00 area did not hold. As a recent buyer (i.e., about $7.70/share) I did not want to give back everything I had made, so bailed out at about $8.00. I am now back in at $7.40.
But I agree that there seems to be good support at $7, and will certainly want to own this stock when next earnings are announced, if it is still priced south of $10.
Thanks for mentioning it on this board. Whatever the temporary fluctuations, looks pretty safe through 2005.
Steve
researcher59:
I made a little money (very little) on the last round trip, and bought back in again today. Looks pretty safe to me at this price.
Thanks.
Steve
RRainman9999:
I owned CRYP for a while. I thought it was getting a bit expensive looking, and sold. But you might want to check it out.
Steve
researcher59 re STV:
STV looking quite attractive again at this level. Are you aware of any fundamental reason why it has sold off the last few days?
Thanks.
Steve
VPHM:
Interesting post from Yahoo message board:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&acti....
And a forecast noted there:
http://www.stock100.com/plotForecast.asp?symbol=VPHM&history=30&future=5
Steve
VPHM:
Company has scheduled a conference call to discuss debt buyback (and other things?) on June 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET, 7:00 a.m. here on the left coast.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=92320&p=irol-presentations
Steve
Len:
Are Canadian (TSX) stocks okay? Australian (ASX)?
Thanks.
Steve
Bobwins re VPHM conversion:
My guess is that remaining debt will voluntarily convert before the next autoconvert deadline.
This is obviously awesome news, whatever the effect upon the stock price this week.
Steve
Guy re PDGE:
I am not adding here, but am likewise hoping for a catapult.
Steve
RRainman9999 re UBET:
I purchased a small amount of UBET yesterday morning at the open. Steady revenue/earnings growth. All the recent PRs suggest good revenues/earnings in Q2 by reason of Triple Crown races; relatively easy year over year comparison. Certainly the company appears to be excited about its future, for whatever that's worth.
I am still in the process of working through latest 10-K and 10-Q. May buy a little more next week, if things look okay. While meeting criteria for mention on this board, it is much more a growth stock than a value stock.
http://www.investor.reuters.com/CompanyFinancialHighlights.aspx?ticker=UBET&target=%2fstocks%2ff...
Steve
VPHM:
Regarding the science, interesting post from SI board:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21422136
Steve
VPHM:
From Yahoo message board, comparing valuation of Vicuron (purchase by Pfizer for $29.10 announced today) with VPHM:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=707...
For value investors, Vicuron's (earnings) history:
http://www.investor.reuters.com/CompanyFinancialHighlights.aspx?ticker=MICU.O&target=%2fstocks%2...
I'm sure that this is an apples to oranges comparison in many ways. But is there any doubt why VPHM insiders are buying the heck out of this stock.
The conversion will be over soon.
Steve
VPHM:
Latest SEC Form 8-K:
http://phoenix.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=92320&p=irol-SECText&TEXT=aHR0cDovL2NjYm4uMT...
During the 4 days from 6/7-6/10, 2.2 million more shares were converted ($5.5 million debt). This leaves $43.95 million out of original debt of $75 million.
Steve
Bobwins re VPHM:
FWIW I think the company will soon release another 8-K -- perhaps after the close today -- showing how many shares have been converted in the past few days. My guess is we are converting at a rate of about 4-5 million shares per week (i.e., $10-$12 million in debt). Seems reasonable to assume that at some point the conversion process will begin to create more buying pressure, as those wanting to be long this stock will realize they they better get in before conversion is completed. I wouldn't be surprised if we get to $10 per share by the end of the month.
Finally, on the Yahoo message board there is an interesting quote from this morning's briefing.com:
"11:24 VPHM ViroPharma: hearing sell-side shop out saying #s are too conservative and large insider buying remains a catalyst for stock (6.56 +0.59)"
How do you interpret: "sell-side shop out saying #s are too conservative . . ." Sounds good to me . . .
Steve
Bobwins re VPHM:
Have we finally reached JATO?
Steve
VPHM:
Another insider buy on 6/10 -- 10k shares at prices from $5.73-$5.78.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=92320&p=irol-SECText&TEXT=aHR0cDovL2NjYm4uMTBrd2...
Steve
VPHM and Russell Microcap list:
It is my understanding from MSGI's link that VPHM is being included on the Russell Microcap index, a new index being introduced this year.
Steve
yield re MMRK:
The dividend announcement is earlier than last quarter, and worded somewhat differently. Does different timing/wording suggest anything to you, good or bad?
Thanks.
Steve
SSKILLZ1 re CULS:
Thanks for the information. I bought a little yesterday, hurricane season notwithstanding.
Steve
Sam re VPHM:
There are many people here that are much better with numbers than I am, and some are invested in this stock. I hope to learn.
That said, at $5.87 per share I think the stock is a safe bet, however these issues get resolved.
Steve
Bobwins, abh3vt, Sam, etc. re VPHM:
1. Royalty Payments To Eli Lilly on Vancocin sales: It has always been my understanding that, as an accounting matter, VPHM is treating these payments as a cost of the acquisition, and capitalizing/amortizing them over 25 years. The "propriety" of this has been debated (e.g., see Yahoo posts 30315 and 30318), but presumably it has been blessed by the outside auditors. Obviously, the cash flow impact is the same, whatever the accounting treatment.
2. Interest Expense: I have never known how to quantify interest obligations going forward. I note that in Q1 2005 interest expense is effectively offset for net income purposes by a $3.6 million "Change in fair value of derivative liability." At first I thought this was only a Q1 phenomenon, but then I read the following in the 10-Q:
"As the result of the exchange of the senior notes to the senior convertible notes in January 2005, we expect to have additional interest expense in 2005 due to the accretion of the debt discount on the senior convertible notes. Based upon relevant information available as of January 19, 2005, we estimated the fair value of the make-whole provision using a Monte Carlo simulation model to be $7.9 million at that time. The fair value of the make-whole provision, which was recorded as a discount on the senior convertible notes, is being accreted to interest expense over the life of the senior convertible notes. The make-whole provision, which was recorded as a derivative liability, is adjusted quarterly for changes in fair value during the first three years that any such senior convertible notes are outstanding, with the corresponding charge or credit to other expense or income. This adjustment is based on various factors, such as our stock price and shares outstanding, that may fluctuate in the future. As such, future adjustments may be significant and may be either a loss or gain. During the first quarter of 2005, this adjustment resulted in a gain on the change in the fair value of derivative liability of $3.6 million with the corresponding reduction made to the liability, which was approximately $3.8 million at March 31, 2005."
The statement "future adjustments may be significant and may be either a loss or a gain" caused me to think differently.
I don't know much about accounting, and the mere mention of a "Monte Carlo simulation model" makes my eyes glaze over. But perhaps these things are relevant to the dialogue.
Steve
ursineus re CPTCQ:
Bankruptcy is frequently used for strategic purposes in litigation -- sometimes quite effectively. From the PRs on 5/5 and 5/9, it appears that this was a pre-packaged bankruptcy, as the company is reported to have filed a plan of reorganization concurrently with the filing of its petition. It may be possible to download the plan off of PACER; if so, you can get a sense of what the company would like to achieve through the bankruptcy proceedings. The filing was in the Central District of California; Judge Ryan is in Santa Ana.
You should keep in mind that these plans are frequently amended.
Hope this helps, and, for the sake of those still in the stock, that the strategy is successful here.
Steve
hweb2 re ETEC:
FWIW, poster on Raging Bull board for ETEC states that he spoke directly with CFO and earnings are to be announced on 6/30.
Steve
CULS:
I note that this stock is on SSKILLZ1's list, but don't see any actual discussion of it on this board. I realize it has done poorly in the last three months, but it looks good to me at this price.
http://www.investor.reuters.com/CompanyFinancialHighlights.aspx?ticker=CULS&target=%2fstocks%2ff...
Does anyone own it? Any thoughts?
Thanks.
Steve
Bobwins re VPHM:
Latest director buy was $5.48. You should be pleased if you get in under that price, IMHO.
But who knows. Until conversion is done, the price will be all over the place. Volume is low today.
Good luck.
Steve
Bobwins re VPHM:
Looks like you may have a chance to buy today at $5.50.
Steve