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thanks declaes, when/which the next catalyst for the company?
I like the xcede story, but still have to dig more
Thoughts
1- partnership still pending: either it is linked to FDA acceptance OR IPCI didn't received interesting proposals. in the second case they are and WE are in a very dangerous road
2- it is obvious for everybody here that the stock will move when and ONLY when cash impacting news will be released. Probably best thing in the short term could be a ready to be marketed ANDA approval
3- Egalet just showed us how labeling will be the key for Rexista; so no major jump on this side until final approval with labeling spec.
4- institutionals: when it comes to investment funds they have usually a threshold on what they can buy based on mkt cap. different story for ultra small cap specific investment funds. so we won't see them for sure for a while. further different story for other institutions types
5- in the end only science will matter; we just have to hope Odidi is a real genius. Regabatin and Podras will change our life.
6- FDA is our first issue
7- a group of people is owning this stock (not this company); being the real floating ridicolous we will be their hostage until point 2) becomes reaity
GLTA
I'm IN @ 1.30 with 1 yr time horizon
Tek, I tend to agree with most of the things you wrote, but then when I see tobira or conatus or...I'm asking myself: it's because big institutions don't get it or because big pharma get it wrong?
Possible wayout I see:
Odidi's science is the best,
We get bought out form one of those big pharma who get it wrong and a multiple of our mkt cap.
OK. Thanks. This explains
Egalet is +15? in the day of approval...Is this what is expecting us on the day of Rexista approval?
Why so "low" increase?
just bought 3k @ 2.70
Less than 15mln of rev per year from Rexista...I would call it a fiasco, but I'm not in the position to say it won't be.
Yours is probably the ultraconservative valuation, which by the way would put us @ 10 by year end.
Doog,
I believe the point here is that IF ipci would behave in a standard biotech way we would be now @ 6-8 with a jump to 30 with rexista-podras partnership....And then a likely buyout at 50 by year end.
That's the only point.
Instead we "risk" an easy buyout @ 10-12...If some institutional sees the value WE see.
That's it. So you don't sell @ 3 if you think 10-12 is reachable. But you are unhappy like hell for waiting for the big jump starting from 2.80 instead of possibly starting from 8 or 10. a matter of much money
Garden, which is your strategy/position on ipci, other than love what sprot has been doing?
Doog, I am long 50k shares and only flip once, on the first focalin approval.
I am not making a penny of profit with my historical position.
I own several other biotechs and what I can say for sure is that ipci price action has been beyond any reasonable expectation on the bad side for over 3 yes now.
I find it weird, because we are now reaching the paradox where a good news is reflected into a red price. Same news 3 yes ago...You know what happened.
So I believe ipci has tremendous value but what is going on with the share price it's dangerous manipulation.
IPCI @ 1bln mkt cap by year end would be what will happen with a normal biotech. We can still get there. But I find it very very hard. But I'm not selling a share.
Glta
Hate to read these words. Enough. But you are right in doing what you do.
There's something weird in this story.
"This stock will only move up when we see real numbers of income! "
The more we get positive news
And the price doesn't really move and the more likely we become a takeover target.
We would probably be disappointed by the final price, but ipci is about to become profitable with 2 NDA and a transformational tech just patented.
Mr deep pocket could buy everything @ 15...After becoming easily the major shareholder accumulating at mkt prices.
Maybe just my fantasies...But that's usually what happens when you have irrationally low valuation...You just get bought out
Hard to accept this frustrating price action.
Hopefully will soon finish, but I won't believe it until I see it.
glta
You are correct, that's the usual approach when you want to start a negotiation.
But if we want to try to find the reasons for a counter-intuitive behaviour by Odidi - and we assume he is not out of his mind, then:
1 - he could already have (from a long time) a LOI which for example states that: get Rexista approved (or FDA accepted), secure your PRODRAS patent, partner half of your ANDA's and we'll value your company xxx (I'm just roughly guessing)
2 - the value given by the market to smallcap biotechs is more than often just a fraction of what big pharma then agrees to pay: market correctly discounts for any uncertainty , the same uncertainty that suddenly disappears when the contract/partnership/buyout comes into place; so ultimate real value is given by how much a big player is willing to pay
IF (very big IF) this scenario falls close to reality, then why bothering into PR, promotions, marketing and so on. Just run like hell towards the required accomplishments to get the deal done.
Think a company like Purdue, which is not listed (and therefore less bond to regulations in terms of communication) which agrees with Odidi as per above, requiring to be tight lipped.
otherwise we could have:
3 - he is completely incompetent (which I think is not)
4 - the company is a fraud veichle (which recent FDA approvals should prove is not)
Remember: JUST MY GUESSING, since I couldn't come out with a plausible explanation on why somebody should prefer to say nothing about his revolutionary gem, instead of going out and shout it loud.
GLTA
Great post Doog.
I concur with everything you said.
For what regards your questions about the reasons Odidi is not promoting IPCI and its tech I think the possibile answers are.
1- for whatever reason he already knows how this story it's going to end (=very well)
2- he fell into the opioid abuse and all he has been trying to do is just to get out of his nightmare (LOL)
Yesterday we had the usual attempt to drive the share price down, but we had an unsual come back (given it was tuesday); let's see if today we have a similar path... could be the signal somthing is changing in the forces working on the stock.
wish everybody to start having a permanent smile when looking at IPCI share price !
Everything's possible. They have been so far extremely low profile in realising any kind of news. Maybe their style, maybe Odidi wants the value to unleash all of a sudden with a buyout, maybe they are just not good at it.
What I share with you is this feeling of something more behind the scenes.
But why not PR it, even supposing they are negotiating a sale of the tech or the company itself?
As many already told you: flipping it's completely legitimate.
You are here the major part of the time hoping for the price to go down.
Wrinkles seems to have a different attitude, even if flipping, he is truly a longer.
You Sprot are always looking for a lower price.
I'm frustrated, but I bought more last week and I was not hoping for the share price to go @ 2 so I could have bought even more.
Samsa, your frustration is like mine.
What is puzzling me is that if the value we see in the company is really there, why we don't have some institutional seriously buying and possibly taking the company majority ?
We have just seen CNAT more than doubling and now close to 100mln cap, after the Novartis deal, while they still have to run PhaseII trials. And they just have 1 drug working on.
And there are numerous other example for 2016.
now, if you want to look at the positive side, this seems to be confirming that the market doesn't really understand the proper potential (value?) of biotechs; big players more than often pay more than double the mkt cap.
on the negative, I really don't understand why we don't have aggressive accumulation going on, while being almost profitable and having huge catalyst approaching. I don't get it.
Manipulators play their game, but given the currant mkt cap it would take very little effort for a big pharma to get in control of IPCI, not just to push the shorters out, but just because the technology is truly valueable and you want to get in before Others do.
Your sarcastic view that we could go below 2 if partnership is announced and not tremendously lucrative I believe it's not pure fantasy.
right now it really seems that the only believers in this company are here on this board.
FDA Acceptance Letter: could be sooner than what everybody is writing over the last days. Maybe it's dreaming, but considering the urgence of opiod addiction could also be a serious possibility ?
I'm referring to a msg of grills4thrills
"
To consider, let’s look at what happened with PTIE. They submitted their NDA on March 29th 2016. They received their acceptance to review from the FDA on April 12th, with a PDUFA date of September 25th. That’s within 6 months of filing, though acceptance to review very prompt after filing."
Now my hope is that (as happened Yesterday) the shorters will be finding a real buyer (not himself or a friend account) making their game increasingly difficult until they will had to stop it...hopefully with real pain.
Thanks cysonic,
great job about outstanding shares/warrants.
Tek,
concerning other pain treatment substances I was looking into TRVN and CARA...any thoughts ?
TIA
Noodle,
events that are going to really move the share price:
1 very lucrative partnership for Rexista
2 very lucrative partnership for Regabatin
3 very lucrative partnership for Podras tech
4 Buyout
for n4 it's defenetly too early (maybe next Christmas if all other catalyst realize in a proper way)
n1: "lucrative"...otherwise we get punished (and I am talking about irrational share price manipulation)
n2: again, structure of the deal is going to be Paramount
n3: too early, but probably the monster valuation trigger
conclusion: share price will be disappointing for a long time if we don't follow in at least one of the points above.
in the end we will be bought out, I'm almost sure about that...if we have patience manipulators will finally be pushed out and value (probably HUGE VALUE) unlocked.
JMHO
ok no share pop...but this looks unreal...
Angelo,
CNAT deal looks very similar to what you several times suggested could be the structure for IPCI partnership, right ?
"Conatus to get upfront payment of $50m within 5 business days from Novartis for exclusive option to develop products containing emricasan for liver cirrhosis or liver fibrosis.
Upon exercise of option, Conatus will grant Novartis exclusive, worldwide license to emricasan, at which point Conatus would receive $7m; option expires Oct. 31, 2017
Conatus is eligible to receive up to $650m in milestone payments over term of agreement
Option exercisable upon, among other things, Conatus providing notice to Novartis of initiation of planned Phase 2b trial expected in 2Q 2017"
CNAT got 50mln upfront, and they are way behind in the process compared to Rexista.
So when I read about 10-15mln upfront for IPCI I go crazy...but I know everything can happen
Samsa,
I have been thinking a lot about the reasons for IPCI being so tight lipped; putting out a PR from time to time it's a very easy job to do.
I've come up with the that Odidi has decided to go the hardest way with stock manipulators/shorters. he underlined how he was put under pressure to step down.
So, he knows what he has got in hands, he knows he doesn't need cash anymore...he just goes his way until it sells the company, becoming rich and destroying in one day the shorters.
Just me spending too much time thinking ? LOL
Thanks cysonic.
now let the PODRAS tech change our life !
Agreed cysonic,
PODRAS patent it is a non-event per-se. Therefore no impact on share price unless some PR announcing partnership will follow.
Right now I would like to have an ANDA approval for a ready to be market drug. That would be our Christmas present
Last friday we didn't have the usual green/recovery/short covering day....maybe this monday we are not going to have the usual red/short opening day ?
I bought some more @ 2.75. Fingers crossed.
We need manipulators out.
Speaking of which:
It was funny to have some read of the other website forum. The main poster is full of himself, promising to move the share price from there to there, to hold the price, etc....but it never happens what it states.
The other main character announcing a done deal like 10 days ago, then celebrating (writing of) for it...but after that disappeared.
There are some of the respected partecipant of this board who from time to time try to make some good and rational points...but it's like water drops in the desert.
Rational and logical Samsa, I share your reasoning.
I'm still confident to see a surprise on the ANDA side before year end.
By the way: are PAR going to start commercializing Focalin's newly approved strenghts ? you can, with focalin-IPCI you never know. LOL
I know patience will pay...Just tired up of this game playing.
But you are correct in your analysis of events from Summer til today.
nothing new so far...same old play.
Com'on news...we are all waiting
honestly I don't know.
For sure, thanks to the Amazing DD made by some here on board, we know IPCI should probably turn into a profit next year, without any further news (which we know are due).
So that is nice. Would be great to have one additional ANDA approved by year end...one of those ready to hit the market (I think Pristiq is one of them) and immediately generate revenue.
GLTA
Great, this is what I was referring to in my msg to Samsa.
Thank you very much 92662.
If the date of the letter is 30th nov then on the 14th of december PAR should/could PR the commercialization of approved strenghts = IPCI could issue a PR stating we are entitled to receive....
Samsa, regarding Focalin I think we could only see if/when PAR starts delivering the new pills. I think I read yesterday on this board that they have to wait 14days from approval but I don't remember why. Will see...it's next week.
About the stock price, I am progressively starting to believe we all be somewhat disappointed for a relatively long time...and then...suddenly the buyout.
Odidi deosn't seem to be interested in shareholders because he is convinced of the value of what he has in the labs. So he doesn't really care about PR and poor Della Penna should do all the job, which considering all the negotiations and developments looks impossible to accomplish.
Then look at the short interest: more or less the same as of 15th of nov. To me it means that who is short either doesn't know IPCI developments or "he" is the most informed about future steps = odidi himself (via friend accounts) OR is someone who wants the price to stay down to have more LEVERAGE. JMHO !
Looks like Short interest furtherly increase during second half oh nov. Unbelievable. Wanna see them cry soooooon