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True stargate, but I'm looking at the most immediate candle bottom lines of support following the long sidetrend and following breakdown. It's just one of many lines of support.
Daiello.....I'm long at .7665 but I'm wondering if we won't see aother drop of around 100 pips to my heavy green line of support on the 15 minute chart. What I'm really wondering is where the long term bottom is, but for sake of the short and mid-term, I'm wondering if U/C has bottomed quite yet for any real bounce yet. I'm in very light right now lot size wise.
Here's a monthly chart of U/C and some of the possibilities for broken support. Support has been broken already from the channel. And I personally can visualize much more downward price continuation even if there's a pullback before much longer to the downward sloping heavy blue mid-bollie line. But there's no reason why there can't be further continuing price action below the lower bollie line imo. The next line of support on the monthly looks to be .75ish. After that, the next monthly support I see below that is below my chart in the .40 area. This is scary from my technical point of view long term. I've been so wrong before, so I'm hoping I'm wrong now! I've been so right before too, but never laid heavy lots down when I was. The risk keeps me trading small lots and keeps me poor. And the brokers are just fine keeping it that way, 'cause I'm one of millions helping to provide their fortunes.
Hey, I'm not manipulating anything! LOL I see another line of "support" at .76 on the 4 hour. Let's see if it makes it there and more importantly, stops there.
Look at the USD/CHF dive! Sheesh!
LOL! Yep jav.....the cat's out of the bag now and those darn MM's got to find a new trick. No more M's and W's! lol
I don't know joann.......but that's my assumption. I have no way of knowing how much truth there is to the article either. It's scary to me thinking that the strength of our economy is based in large on the gambling over the value of our own currency when the rest of the worlds nations and wealthy self-interest groups are manipulating it to their own benefit. It's insanity from my perspective. Like building a nuclear power facility on a relatively small island in the pacific that's historically had earthquakes and tsunamis over the previous centuries. Makes no good sense in the long run or for all.
Investors: The $1 Billion Armageddon Trade Placed Against The United States
July 25th, 2011
Jack Barnes: Someone dropped a bomb on the bond market Thursday – a $1 billion Armageddon trade betting the United States will lose its AAA credit rating.In one moment, an invisible trader placed a single trade that moved the most liquid debt market in the world.
The massive trade wasn’t placed in bonds themselves; it was placed in the futures market.
The trade was for block trades of 5,370 10-year Treasury futures executed at 124-03 and 3,100 Treasury bond futures executed at 125-01.
The value of the trade was about $850 million dollars. In simple terms, if that was a direct bond buy, no one would be talking about it.
However, with the use of futures, you have to have margin capacity behind the trade. That means with a single push of a button someone was willing to commit more than $1 billion of real capital to this trade with expectations of a 10-to-1 return ratio.
You only do this if you see an edge.
This means someone is confident that the United States is either going to default or is going to lose its AAA rating. That someone is willing to bet the proverbial farm that U.S. interest rates will be going up.
I believe what happened is a debt-ceiling deal was done in Washington and leaked to a major proprietary trader. Everyone knows the debt negotiations in Washington have been an extreme game of brinksmanship between political parties, but now someone knows how that game played out.
This had the hallmarks of one of the largest bond shops in the world knowing something the rest of the market didn’t.
The number of shops or even central banks that can take on this level of market risk is extremely small. Some that come to mind are hedge fund manager John Paulson, Bill Gross’s PIMCO, and the U.S. and Chinese central banks.
Paulson already scored big – about $6 billion big – on a similar trade years ago when he bet against subprime mortgages, the investments that helped bring down Lehman Bros. and many other investors.
Whoever was behind it wanted a trade on ASAP, and didn’t care about the ripples they would cause.
You can see how this trade caused fear to be unleashed in the market once it got out and the implications hit by looking at U.S. Treasuries. People who were long 30-year Treasuries panicked as they saw the huge short put on the futures market, and started to unwind their long exposure.
What you, as investors, should do now is look at the bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide a positive rate of return when U.S. Treasuries drop in value. Yields are going up sooner rather than later, if the person behind this Armageddon trade is correct.
Written by Jack Barnes From Money Morning
We’re in the midst of the greatest investing boom in almost 60 years. And rest assured – this boom is not about to end anytime soon. You see, the flattening of the world continues to spawn new markets worth trillions of dollars; new customers that measure in the billions; an insatiable global demand for basic resources that’s growing exponentially ; and a technological revolution even in the most distant markets on the planet. And Money Morning is here to help investors profit handsomely on this seismic shift in the global economy. In fact, we believe this is where the only real fortunes will be made in the months and years to come.
http://etfdailynews.com/2011/07/25/investors-the-1-billion-armageddon-trade-placed-against-the-united-states/
Okay stkjunky.......I'm out at just a couple pips below 1.39. I stayed up another late night/early morning to continue to see my account dwindle away with this days never ending free fall on E/U. I knew better and took the stupid trade last night anyway. And while the London open may bring about enough bounce to get me back to even, I can't accept the risk. Too many lots and not enough support to make the risk acceptable. E/U can continue it's weekly breakdown without me. And if I miss out on a decent bounce off the weekly bollies or one of the few major fib levels or major moving averages, then so be it. I'm done. If you're still in, I wish you luck.
No, you're right stkjunky and I broke one of the major rules of trading last night when I went to bed without closing out my already losing position. Stupid of me.
I like to trade off trendlines and there's a good one here on the 4 hour chart, but unfortunately for me, I've gone in too deep and have no real "wiggle room". And there's no guarantee of a bounce off that trendline before the price hits 1.3900. So, I'll be out before it does hit 1.3900, some 50 pips below current price. All I need is 140 pips to get to even, but I'm just not counting on seeing it before I hit the sack tonight, so I'll probably close out with a painful loss either way.
Thank you stkjunky.......I wanted your perspective and I was able to follow what you were trying to say. Since I stayed up till 2am babysitting this loser E/U trade I'm in and I only lost more as I watched it. I took a chance on it holding it over night and woke up to more losses this morning. I don't think I want to stay up till 2am again tonight watching my reserves dry up further. As soon as the price moves below the trendline on the 1 hour and 4 hour chart, I'm out for good; and it's close to being there as I type. Thank you again for your input.
Thanks stkjunky, just read it. eom
I'd be interested to hear your opinion as the price action evolves over the next day or so stkjunky. Feel welcome to let me know when you exit and for what reasons. I'm just a stuckholder at present, hoping to get back to even so I can either get out completely or just scale back to a healthier lot size. Also feel welcomed to post annotated charts of what you are seeing.
Because of how long the wave 5's can last, I'm not big on wave counts either, but that looked to be a sound count to me so I'm going with it. Thanks for your summation and I hope your eye on the ugly mid-bollie angle isn't giving me the evil eye. lol I'm nervous on this trade because of how overbought the weekly chart appears to me still, but I'm taking a chance here at doubling down and trying to get good on an overnight trade that I should have watched instead of playing. I'd expected the lower blue pattern line on my chart to bring another bounce. I woke up to a failed pattern and trade. Now I'm trying to get back to even. Silly me.
Right stargate, I errantly took my long right at the top of the 4 hour channel where I should have taken a short if anything. I can wait out the bottom of the channel or other lines of support potential. No sure thing in a near bottom. Just hoping for one.
No git, thank you for all your time and help in the past!
Oh and I think I'll be carrying my misery over the weekend. lol I'll get back to even before too long though 'cause E/C too is also oversold on all time frames really.
I don't trust my wave counts git, but I do trust in the initial bounce from a new double bottom. And if there's no bounce, there is a nice stop mark which is the previous bottom price point. It's so oversold on all time frames though that I think it's good for at least your .85ish price area. I wish you very good luck with it!
I'd absolutely join you git except that I'm underwater on a couple E/C longs right now that I took when I left open orders running unintenionally overnight a couple night ago. I'd changed my mind, but forgot to close the orders out. Smart huh?
I think you've got a good trade there btw with CAD/CHF!!
LOL....me too after nearly two years, but not enough to warrant the number of hours I've sat on my ass, staring at the screen.
Hey, thanks for mentioning CAD/CHF. I'm not about to take a long on it right now, but I'll be watching it closely from here on, 'cause it's ripening nicely on the weekly and monthly charts for a nice bounce before too many more days pass, imo.
Thanks git, I was just curious. I was doing a broker comparison a couple days ago and Finotek had the lowest spreads. Here's their website if you want to look into them. I'm with FXCM and don't like them at all, but I love their charting platform so I stay with them. Sounds like a foolish reason to stay with them doesn't it? Btw, I don't use Oanda just because of all the hangups that I kept seeing others post about on this board. And they're charting is a bit different to get used to for me as well.
Here's a broker and spread comparison site but I don't know how old or accurate it is:
http://www.forex-learning-site.com/forex-broker-comparison-reviews.php
And here's finoteks site:
http://www.finotec.com/?domain=1222747095981&affiliate=9472
Who's your broker git? eom
Yep SG, I expected it to be a zipped file. Many of the MT4 files I've loaded have been zipped in the past. Anyway, it's all good and I'm up and running again. Thanks!
That was the answer git.....I figured it was a file that would need to be extracted first so I saved it to my desktop. I've got a program impediment it seems.
Hmmmmm SG.....I saved the file on the desktop but couldn't get it to open. I'll look for it elsewhere or look to see if I can find a program to open it for me. When I double click on the downloaded file on my desktop and then click "run", a windows page pops up asking me if I want to find a program online to open the file. Thank you though!
Hey SG......how's about a link for the "Smoothed HA" candle indicator that we'd discusses a couple or so weeks ago? I lost mine when I had to do an emergency reinstall of windows after my ISP had to replace hard lines and e-boards in their main relay boxes in my neighborhood which caused my firewalls or something else in my computer to prevent my returning to the internet when the ISP service returned. It was about time to thanks to malware anyway so it's all good, EXCEPT, I lost a few indis and if you have the time I could sure use that smoothed HA indi again! I'll pm you my email address if you need it.
Hey git......I think your analogy between bottomfishing for fish and bottomfishing for a low price trend end in the forex is a good one. I've always hoped for not only hitting it right bottomfishing for price but then making the most of the new trend too, but never have. When I do get the bottom, I sell off too soon based on fear that I may not have actually hit the real bottom. This book should help eliminate a lot of the fear as far as trading the trend goes. It isn't going to help much though on increasing the odds of getting it right when bottomfishing or staying in once I did hit it. Now to finish reading the book........got too many other things going on at the same time. I haven't traded since yesterday morning and won't have the time here before early close either. Have a good weekend all!
Hey git....the biggest thing I forgot to mention about the book is that he advocates making the trend your friend vice what most of us are probably and usually doing which is fighting the trend.
Git! Regarding the book.........I wish someone would write a book on how to bottomfish! I have gained a wealth of knowledge from reading a little over half of the "Attacking Currency Trends" book by Greg Michalowski and I am just now into the meat and potatos of the book which is the early portion of part2 "Tools and Strategies". I am just now reading the section on "Three's A Crowd" with "Trading Between the Goal Posts" on the following couple of pages. Greg spends a fair amount of time discussing fib lines/levels. He discusses in length "Moving Averages" while focusing heavily on the 100 and 200 SMA's. Everything is relative to those two moving averages. He also discusses "Trend Lines and Remembered Lines" which are very relative and very important to see and consider. And he talks about preparing for the trade and executing the trade. There's more to the second half of the book, not to mention the first half and part of the book. For someone who has not traded forex before, it's an excellent introduction to the bigger picture of the forex, for instance as it pertains to institutional and retail involvement in price action, consideration of the many hundreds of indicators out there and then a good "how to" on trading itself. I'd highly recommend reading this book before ever placing a trade. And then I'd recommend trading only paper money in a demo account until one becomes highly familiar with trading around the spread, the mechanics of trading and finding the best way to trade profitably over and over again where risk is in check and fear to a minimum because of reduced risk and increased confidence. Greg talks about this in length btw. And it's no small thing.
Now if someone would write a highly truthful and highly applicable method of bottomfishing so that the smaller moving averages could be used to reap huge harvests from locating absolute mid-term bottoms, I'd be set! The only problem I see with trading off of Gregs method of trading is that there are huge profits to be made before the price ever reaches the 100 or 200 SMA lines based on bounces and pullbacks. Maybe I'm missing something in the book or haven't gotten to the part that answers the question, but I want to find a dependable way to bottomfish. My 1 hour EUR/CHF chart below shows that there was a sweet 70 odd pips to be made trading between the two dotted 100/200 lines, as Greg speaks to, but there was twice that or 140 pips to be made where all my green arrows are from the begining of the trend at bottom of chart to the green 100MA. Because of the "Sixths" indicator and a bottomed macd on my Marketscope 2.o chart, I was able to nail the bottom this time. But the "Sixths" indi paints so I went in light and hoped for the best. Not a great way to trade even though it paid off this morning. I can see where if I'd taken a short as the price moved down through the green 100MA, I'd have potentially made 155 pips before the price moved back up through the blue MA9, but I wasn't looking at the hour chart at that moment in time and missed it.
Despite my gains, unfortunately I foolishly reentered my long position just above the red 50MA thinking that the price would move back up above the 100MA, so now I'm down 20 pips on that trade while hoping for a chance to get out with less loss. Overall I'm up only 38 pips right now despite all the green gainful arrows.
If anyone comes across a good book on bottomfishing, please let me know? LOL
I do hear you SG! And that's been just it for me......nickle and diming my account by 150% in one year with small positions and tons of scalping. Then taking huge hits when I took large lot postions. There's more psychology related risk with large lot postions than there is risk associated with the pure math of it and that's where the problem has been for me. I'm hoping the book helps give enough insight and confidence to enable the larger lot positions 'cause I'm sick to death of babysitting the charts. Large lot trades with tight stops is what I want; what I end up with may be something different. Oh and 150% on $500.oo account isn't worth the time. I now am down to $970.oo from a high of $1,350 two months ago, and need to do a lot better than 150% annual gains. I might as well go out and get a real job. lol
I need to be able to trade large lot positions with my wins outnumbering my losers by 2 to 1 to get anywhere over time. And it's a matter of knowing when the trade is indeed failing and having as much confidence in getting out as one needs in getting in to begin with. I'm not quite there yet..
NO Simple! It ain't simple! LOL But, maybe after I read and digest the content of the book then it will become simpler. And I need to throw up a couple charts of the same pair and compare SMAs with EMAs. I followed everything you said and could only relate to the SMA versus EMA price action. I'm very curious...
Excellent SG! Not just the indi that pennies sent your way, which I'm going to beg you for, but for the previous post which was valuable to me having not read the book yet. And thanks for including that last sentence speaking to the angle of the 100ema line; that's significant!
What time frame are you looking at SG? eom
Sorry for the late reply SG........I and the missiz left the house to play a little tennis together to burn some calories and pretend I'm not in my 50's.
I came home to find myself ahead on an E/C long so I took profit at the MA21 on the 15 minute chart. I'll let the other 1st position run against me again and add again later.
I see the price bouncing up to, through, and back down to the 100 adn 200 lines on U/J but I'm not sure where you were talking. I can see where you might have had a couple scalp opportunities...
I wonder how you can play the price action of the 50ema as it pertains to the 100 and 200 ema lines, 'cause I can sure see where the price lends as much respect to the 50ema as it does the 100 and 200 and even the 62 and the 21 ema lines. The 50 seems to stop the price dead most often on a deep pullback or off a deep bounce. And if the price breaks through the 50ema, it can mean a big price move on the breakthrough.
Good to hear SG......I need all the confidence I can get. Since I don't have the benefit of knowledge and confidence that will hopefully come from reading the book, I went ahead and took a small long term long position on E/C this morning. I won't have the roll fees working against me and it's well oversold on all time frames per all my favorite indicators. I think it will maybe drop a bit more, but I'm bottomfishing along the way.
I look forward to getting and reading the book in hopes of getting as much benefit from it as possible. I hope I get as much from it as you have!
My "Attacking Currency Trends" book left the facility at Bell Gardens California yesterday close to noon. Let's see how many days it takes the US Postal service to get it across a couple state borders and into my mail box here in Colorado. I hope it doesn't take more than a week. lol
Ok, so for all you that have had the book a couple days and had plenty of time to read it and fully understand the material within the pages of the book already........should I be short or long on A/U right now? Huh? LOL
Right SG, but there's those sticky copyright issues.
That'd be great joann. I hope the book proves worth the money. Of course it's up to the trader to benefit from any available knowledge.
I guess I should have asked before buying myself joann......UGH! So here I sit and wait! LOL figures....lol