I am updating my staus.
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BSPM - The only fly in the ointment are high A/R at $17.85 million by Sept. 30/2009. So hopefully the basis for this award remains in effect by 2010. Well, if they were picky about A/R's in China there would be very few AAAs
rich
BSPM - I didn't notice anything about the fact that SFDA isn't going to issue another over the counter product at all - so emailed them with this information.
A competing OTC product at the same price point is about the only corporate risk factor I can see. My due diligence suggests nothing is imminent, and any expected competing products will be sometime down the road, and far more expensive.
It would be great if they did buy up to $4.50 as NAZ would follow
rich
Yeah, I've not touched the margins of the core business to get the estimate.
Might have a look how they did in previous years... 2007 & 2008 say... from what we've seen of 2009 it largly dependent on the odd contract with a higher margin. But perhaps volumes have been higher in previous years?
13.2M rev. from 4Q09 to be recognized in Q1
There is? I didn't know that...
EPS 1.3 is looking doable assuming margins - if there is any additional ramping up then that's just gravey.
Lets hope these Texas procesessors don't start dotting up around China is an overcapacity kinda way... but I guess that's the good thing about the business - they are skilled at dealing with scrap metal already and this is just a value added service.
rich
Hi Bradford,
I don't understand why someone in the money wouldn't exercise their warrants? Are they, like you, on the boat in the caribbean ... perhaps till past June? Either way it's not a disaster if they do as they clearly could do something with the cash.
rich
What you reckon about this bogus...
I've put in 7% and pushed up Q4 to 9% as scaling, apparently, helps margins.
1M tonne scrapper
Order 100,000,000
Tonnes 230,000
$ per tonn 434.78
Tonnes Revenue % Net Net Income
Q1 23,000
Q2 69000 30,000,000 7.00% 2,100,000
Q3 69000 30,000,000 7.00% 2,100,000
Q4 250,000 108,695,652 9.00% 9,782,609
----------------------------------------------------
FY 411000 13,982,609
Normal ongoing Business
$5 M (say - same as 2009)
Net Income 19M (14+5)
Number of shares fully diluted 14,821,362
EPS = 1.3
Cash if fully diluted $28 M or $1.9 share
P/E = (Price - Cash Per share) / Earnings
P/E = (8.22 -1.9) / 1.3 = 4.7
Go on then... justify your price...
rich
China's oil demand increase 'astonishing', says IEA
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8563985.stm
(From digg on LPIH board)
Oil is trading at more than $82 a barrel
China's demand for oil jumped by an "astonishing" 28% in January compared with the same month a year earlier, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says.
The body added that demand for oil in 2010 would be underpinned by rising demand from emerging markets, with half of all growth coming from Asia.
But the IEA predicted demand in developed countries would fall by 0.3%.
The IEA has increased its global oil demand forecast for 2010 by 1.8% to 86.6 million barrels a day.
Oil prices were above $83 a barrel earlier today, the highest in two months, but dropped back to closer to $80 in late afternoon trading.
The IEA said the high price level was due to "heightening of geopolitical tensions affecting some producing countries", but that this had been balanced by "ample physical oil supplies".
Crude oil production by countries in the oil producers' cartel Opec rose to a 14-month high of 29.2 million barrels a day in February.
During February, Iraq pumped an extra 115,000 barrels a day.
Opec is due to meet on 17 March and the IEA expects it will maintain its current production targets.
Well, I'm pretty neutral on the situation coming into earnings - as that is going to dictate where it's going. 50,000 given it's doing 1 Million shares on some days recently probably isn't that unusual. But perhaps I misread the chart?
Not really seen enough of these situations to know what to expect.
rich
PUDA added to naked short list...
according to poster on PUDA board... if you look at fails to deliver... it's spiked up..
http://failstodeliver.com/default2.aspx
(with failed to deliver... people don't send the ownership certificate when they've sold it... basically great way to create more stock supply)
rich
totaly cool...you can check this on http://failstodeliver.com/default2.aspx
and stick in PUDA..
rich
PUDA I would take the company guidance of $1.00 - 1.50. It's difficult to be cleaer until we see the margins and volumes of the new facilities...
Also, you've got the mine expansion in the second half of the year... and additional financing / mine purchases which should be additive but cause stock becalming while it's in progress.
rich
BSPM @ $4 - now can they hold and apply to NAZ at the same time! eom
rich
LPIH - yeah thought the same, it is laughable - I think the guy is just trying to create "uncertainty" - deter people buying - either extending a short positions gains or allowing a lower entry point. There is no substance to his argument.
It's only going to damage the image of seekingalpha - clearly they don't care!
rich
Wow, like Wow, that's really well argued; I mean... just when there's lots of shares to be sold - now's the time that they come out with this important "research".
Not just any research, obviously! Really, detailed research "It's just a website!", as brilliant as it is thorough. Which is to say it's neither.
Good grief, I'm not a violent man but if I *had* to step on one persons toes - I would choose him.
rich
So little coverage because it's quite near it's price. CGS board seems focused on cheap growing companies.
NEP is fairly near it's value so not as exciting. I think it's pretty much a formality that NEP will beat it's guidance as they have bought a drill and must therefore be maxing out drilling in either Q4 or Q1 - Q2 - apparently summer can be wet so the other seasons are the time to drill. The numbers they are predicting are very low but the market has already do the sums themselves - which is why were not $4 anymore.
I think there's a real chance that they will get another oil production license or buy a private oil company at a good price. Which case it's a home run.
rich
Yes, I'm not worrying at all about LLEN... The 96 cents was based on a budget made at the start of the fiscal year and was not updated when various additive purchases were made. Along with a dilution.
There has been so many additions I don't have a clue but I think it's safe to say they'll get their numbers but also likely that they don't update their 2010 guidance.
Their 3rd quarter ended Jan on my spreadsheet... Is the limit 1 1/2 months for quarterly results then?
Anything about 25 cents will justify the share price at P/E 10 - low given it would be growing. However, I think it has to be North of 30 cents not to disappoint shareholders. 32 cents would put them on $1.28 run rate - which is what their aim looks like for Q4 during the most recent presentation...above that is gravey and I have to say... no idea..
hmm... perhaps I should play with figures....
rich
YUII - I assume you think the loans thing is storm in a t-cup?
rich
PUDA - yup, sounds right - if an institution wanted to buy you don't want to flag it before the market opens. Buying after hours so high suggests your wanting to beat the crowd.
rich
PUDA 223K volume/Avg day 292K
PUDA 9.9 x 10 with 10K vol in premarket... wonder if the roll continues? Last trade was 9.52 - last night was some after hours trades up to $10...
rich
YUII - prohibited transactions under Section 402 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.
Related parties making loans? Could be harmless financing... or something damn right dirty? Anyone got a better take?
Markets, I tend to find, aren't very good at giving the benefit of the doubt
rich
YUII - blimey sold off hard - accounting firm resigned is the rumour..
rich
YUII - They have a model that was self financing. Cash on delivery as far as I can remember... and the cash was building the business.
So many of the companies seem to be going from one financing to the next. YUII also got some luck with China banning US chicken - so the price of the commodity they are selling should be good in the near future.
Compare that with CSR - which has to dilute to create working capital to build the business - just not good.
rich
BFAR, throwerw - that all makes sense - thank you very interesting - I should look at WAG as a business model that works under full competition. They've got intersting plans.
I guess I should look to accumulate shares in a patient manner while the previous Reverse merger people sell out like the pirates they are.
I was thinking about why do people list their companies? Often to access capital but these previous owners are selling shares hard depressing the price just when they need capital at a reasonable price. I would be really annoyed if I was the owner... but as an investor it looks a nice area.
rich
BFAR - I was thinking to myself... how does a pharmacy hold off the competition from a WMT type of deal?
Clearly, there's chains of stores still in US - perhaps they lose some business but people go to get a specialist / more convenient store?
Got to say it looks interesting accumlation while the big seller has to drop his shares out his pockets.
rich
Why would they sell?
Weren't these the guys who got their shares at $1 and change? They will have made a large profit and possibly overweight in it.... why not sell some or all and move onto the next financing opportunity?
Do what your good at.. ripping off, hmm, I mean financing a company at a discout and get a good look over the books to make sure your leaving with a profit.
I'm guessing after that you don't have such a clear view of what's going on so it's sensible to move onto a new deal where you have more visibility.
My *guess* is that investors and financiers see the world differently.
rich
CNBI, Oh, I assumed it was a SPAC... I'm pleasantly surprised when there's any relevent filings to work with!
CNBI on edgar
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=China+Baicaotang&match=&CIK=&filenum=&State=&Country=&SIC=&owner=exclude&Find=Find+Companies&action=getcompany
Not sure I follow this bit: 38M before and 5M offering - giving 40M?
Common stock offered by selling security holders
5,630,575 shares of common stock. This includes (i) 3,519,340 shares of our issued and outstanding common stock; (ii) 1,759,301 shares of common stock issuable upon exercise of outstanding Investor Warrants; and (iii) 351,934 shares of common stock issuable upon exercise of outstanding Agent Warrants.
Common stock outstanding before the offering
38,154,340 common shares as of March 1, 2010.
Common stock outstanding after the offering
(assuming full exercise of all of the Warrants)
40,265,575 shares.
rich
Ok, so it's someone who owns lots of shares (probably from the recent financing) and they have registered that they intend to sell them. So, no dilution but pressure on PPS.
Man, I'm smart! Only 24hrs for me to process the filing
rich
Can anyone explain in a couple of sentences what the filing is about?
I thought it looks like they are convereting preferred into common from an O/S we don't care because this dilution has already been accounted for?
HOwever, it might provide more supply of shares in the near term? Hence price fall off?
rich
That makes sense....
cheers
rich
SIAF comment on afterhours dumps..
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=47564474
rich
Is there any 4G alternatives to CHTL? Any other Chinese projects happening? It seems to me that China needs 4G and someone has to come up with a solution now.
rich
OT: CHBU has got a mention in geoinvesting....
http://geoinvesting.com/companies/company.aspx?g=posts&t=60
China 'not suitable' for wind power generation
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-03/10/content_9568535.htm
rich
UTA - kisok thing stopped me as well... what I would say is it depends on how they manage the transition.
NFLX used antiquated system to transport films (the post) but they've built up a database of people who they hope to move to streaming video when that's sorted out.
rich
YONG Stores, one of the nuggets was that during a store promotional - the revenue in that one day was more than in the previous year - I just think that if I was a store owner I would do everything I could to get branding. There must be a lot of good will from all parties to get this to work.
rich
The other problem I had with GCHT - was that it moved before a news announcement... like 20 - 30% nothing subtle.. so clearly someone already knows what's going on.
That said... if they signed a 3/4 of billion order or 2 then I would shut up and buy like everyone else.
Basically, this is a new varient of a technology and people are wondering if it's going to come together or not.
There's lots of recommendations on the CGS boards - some are more speculative than others. So there is no need to take this gamble and most don't.
rich
PUDA - made me laugh when it was near the top end of estimate - sigh, I'm such a pumper. Anyway, I produced the spreadsheet. The board argued over the margins / revenues - which was the meat of the estimate - well done board.
Estimate are all up for revision when we get some quarterly results. Course by then it might be $20 stock and nobody on the board owns it
rich
SKBI have something like 14 m in cash end of last Q - while I don't think they are cash flow positive they aren't particulary cash flow negative. In fact I wonder why they needed so much ... anyway, they have plenty enough for working operations.
So only a Merger or Aquisition would make this a likely scenario.
Hey, they could buy a coal mine for $14M - with the current market that might not be a bad idea
rich