China Armco Metals Inc. (CNAM)

[GorillaGorilla]

What you reckon about this bogus...

I've put in 7% and pushed up Q4 to 9% as scaling, apparently, helps margins.

 
 1M tonne scrapper 
  
 Order	100,000,000 
 Tonnes	230,000 
 $ per tonn	434.78 
  
         Tonnes  Revenue         % Net   Net Income 
 Q1	23,000						 
 Q2	69000	30,000,000	7.00%	2,100,000			 
 Q3	69000	30,000,000	7.00%	2,100,000			 
 Q4	250,000	108,695,652	9.00%	9,782,609				 
 ---------------------------------------------------- 
 FY	411000			        13,982,609	 
  
 Normal ongoing Business 
 $5 M  (say - same as 2009) 
  
 Net Income 19M  (14+5) 
 Number of shares fully diluted 14,821,362 
 EPS = 1.3 
  
 Cash if fully diluted $28 M or $1.9 share 
  
 P/E = (Price - Cash Per share) / Earnings 
  
 P/E = (8.22 -1.9) / 1.3 = 4.7

The only problem with this is that the earnings , from what we've been told, are back ended. Is supsect that their will be rampup. Though I think the market will care more about the Q1 / Q2 results than Q4 for a little while at least. (I'll work out estimate for Q1 if we agree on this much).

The other problem is working out if the contracts should carry on into next year... I suspect that since Glen thinks there's 40M tonnes of scrappage available that they will get at least as much volume next year as this year.

rich