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Hey dbernet...
Thanks, I'm comfortable with where I am, no worries. Let those with the brass try to trade this have their fun. My guess is most will win, but there will be many that end up looking at what they could've had and feel like they lost a leg.
There are not many overnight trip-quads in a lifetime... ERHE has that potential.
If ERHE could sell the straddle for $3B+, sell it.
Full carry can kiss my hairy. We sit, completely and totally in the control of Sinopec, Andarko, and Addax.
I think Addax is most motivated to drill, but Sinopec and Andarko could call the JDZ "potential reserves" and just camp out.
What could ERHE do? Other than whither and die, nothing. Full carries mean complete dependance, I don't like being dependant on other firms whose sole purpose is to profit. They don't care about ERHE.
Sell the straddle, lease some rigs (at a premium if necessary), and poke some holes.
Or wait until 2010 - 2015 for the JDZ to get important on someones radar screen other than ERHE shareholders. I ain't waitin that long.
Umbra's right, if we don't force the story, the majors will camp out on it. They've got other reserves to play with. If ERHE, or it's shareholders, don't sing its praises and move forward...
It will NOT move forward. Maybe that's a story in and of itself, "Big Oil Bully: CVX/XOM in the JDZ"
I'd watch it.
There's another "somebody slap Brandhuber" moment in there somewhere, I missed it.
To think blog-boy calls this a ra-ra pumper board.
If that's what this is, we all collectively stink at it! LOL!
There has been no change in what will drive ERHE's price...
If there's oil, ERHE's worth billions, if there's no oil, our certs are just expensive Charmin.
We do know that CVX poked at block #1 and preliminary results prompted mention on CNBC of a 1+ bbl find. CNBC doesn't go to air with test well rumors, something leaked... and then a MASSIVE hammer came down. CVX/XOM are puckered so tight right now you couldn't get a knitting needle up their bungholes.
Why?
I can guess... CVX didn't drill a duster. :-0
Something has them back on their heels, and with duct tape over their mouths. I've posted this question before, never got an answer... obviously seismic can't tell us where hydrocarbons exist, or dusters wouldn't happen. Seismic tells where rock formations exist that can trap hydrocarbons, should they be present.
I know darn well there are oil folk here, throw us a bone...
Is it possible for seismic to indicate a viable structure, and then poking a test well proves orders of magnitude bigger?
What else would explain the leak, national reporting, and slamdown the we have seen?
Don't convert to layman's terms, I can google my way through the details. Oh yeah, the question... Can that happen? How? Why wouldn't the large field be obvious in the seismic?
Whatever obo-1 found, it was significant enough to drive someone who should know better to pick up the phone and call CNBC.
Um, yeah, that's been bugging me!
Kobi, and anyone else that has expectations...
"we'll actually see that enhanced shareholder value in our portfolios"
When do you expect oil production to begin? They likely poke multiple test wells in #2 to prove out reserves in 2006. Assuming there's significant oil found, that alone will propel ERHE northward. 2007 could be the year they prove reserves in #3 & #4. MAYBE oil flows from #2 in 2008, but I doubt it.
Somewhere in there you can mix in #5 and #6 and the STPEEZ.
By 2010 and beyond ERHE should be rocking. That's a long time to wait with a silent CEO at the helm.
I'd feel better if the significance of the straddle pushed ERHE north of $5. This penny cr@p and tenth of a cent quotes is annoying, if not embarassing. There's a lot of people I'd like to tell about this stock, but if I recommended a stock that trades under a buck I'd get laughed out of the room.
ERHE needs enough PR to get it trading at levels most investors are comfortable with, and 80 cents ain't it.
When there's news to tell, Brandhuber needs to step it up.
Umbra, we would get more mileage...
out of Brandhuber using some of that $49M ERHC Energy just collected to hire a quality PR firm. But to what end? A PR firm
is going to see ERHE for what it is, a one trick pony.
Granted, that one trick is worth untold billions, but it's still one trick. EHRE needs to ink more deals before we scream too loud for publicity.
I don't think our expectations are too high, and I certainly think Brandhuber should be blasted for his lack of getting the word out. It was WELL over a month sice Jane said ERHC's website would be updated with a letter to shareholders.
Where is it. Where is the Road show alluded to during that same timeframe?
Brandhuber should be kissed sweetly for the deals he got us and should be struck FIRMLY across his knuckles with a steal ruler for failing to tell anyone about it.
Good negotiator? Absolutely. Good front man with marketing skills? Not exactly. In fact he needs a serious tune up.
Spec???
This *is* a site where everyone is anonymous. What *is* said has to be considered opinion. Maestro attacts opinion on a board that can offer *nothing but* opinion.
I'm not sure what you consider as "pure stupidity", but you are entitled to feel that way.
I'm not defending anyone! In fact, I don't necessarily believe or disbelieve any of what they say. It's just more stuff.
I'll admit, I like the riddles, what *else* have we got to do while we wait?
The point I make, and make clearly, is that you are no different than the posters you belittle, just in the opposite direction.
You post critical of anyone that entertains their thoughts, and then you post as fact that they "don't know". You don't know that. You can't know that. Yet you think people should blindly accept your words while rejecting theirs.
You'll never get it. The irony is comical at best.
Observation...
The anxiety level on this board is high, too high. Reading some of the exchanges here isn't unlike being thrown in a pond of starving Pirannas.
ERHE needs a PR campaign, badly.
I understand that ongoing negotiations require playing ones cards close, but surely they can throw us a bone, like maybe that CEO letter to the shareholders that is long overdue?
The fact that we haven't heard anything is frustrating in a calming sort of way. WB is still in the snake-pit fighting with Big Oil. The longer *that* goes on, the better for ERHE, I would think.
It would be nice to hear something, but I guess we'll get what we get when they feel like it.
Whatever they do will impact SEO hundreds of time more than it will impact us... which brings us back to that word, trust.
If you do, you sleep well. If you don't, you act like maestro.
You're joking, right???
"pretending they know facts with certainty when they don't."
Let me get this straight, if people choose to believe the oilphants and umbras that post here, that's bad.
But you state as fact that the oily's and umbras "don't know". How does that make you any different?
You don't know that they don't any more than anyone else knows that they do. :-/
At the end of the day you're saying anyone that entertains these posters ideas is wrong, and you are right... all based on nothing more than ego.
Get it? You say the they don't know, because you don't, therefore you are right. Kinda arrogant, don't you think?
maestro, each and every post on this and every other message board is speculation and heresay. If you want to deal in pure fact then the only site you should be reading is FreeEdgar.com
Yet you continue here, a site 100% dedicated to anonymous speculation, and while you come here of your own free will, you complain about that very anonymous speculation.
I find that in conflict.
!= means not equal. So,
Chevron NOT EQUAL to release from JDA.
Chevy gonna tell us as little as they can get away with.
"rig(dwd) = jdz"
dwd previously meant diagnostics while drilling, thus the hint "rig". That's gotta be the drillship Deep Water Discovery
"cvx != release from jdz"
This clearly contradicts the rumor that CVX has released the drillship. "CVX not released from JDZ"
Siren(js) need I say more?
This either means Joe is crying fire in a theatre again or maybe Joe will hear sirens when the SEC comes to get him? Don't care either way.
LOL@Tapco
BB, Why did they abandon the JDZ for now?
"Don't ever mix Everclear with (hicup) Saki!!!"
ROTFL!
Robert,
There was a post a while back copied here from RB (a very rare respected poster) saying obo-2 started March 29th.
But there have been posts here
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10763401
that say Deepwater Discovery has left the JDZ and is drilling elsewhere. When that's done it's going in for 6 months of maintenence.
If CVX had it through August why would they let it go? If they poke obo-1 and found anything at all, why would they give up the rest of their time? It makes no sense unless they hit a dry hole.
What we need is confirmation that Deepwater Discovery is still in the JDZ and drilling. It discredits Pup's post, but the implications of Pup's post are pretty scary.
Oh yeah, Robert, we create accounts with an alias for privacy reasons, please respect that.
It wasn't an attack on LFG's post. I'll freely admit I was dismayed with LFG's giddyness about high oil prices. The thing people need to realize is that when oil reaches $80-90 or more and gas is above $4, oilco's will start producing oil that wasn't economically feasible before. And while they're ramping up to do that, consumers throughout the world will be altering their lifestyles to reduce consumption.
The result will be a 50-75% drop in oil. Over production + conservation = lower prices.
I would be comfortable with a +/- 10% band around $75. If it spikes to $100, then 3-5 years from now it'll be under $50.
I suppose this will get deleted too, I didn't say ERHE.
I honestly don't know what they deleted.
I posted several posts last night, I'd like to know which they deleted and why. I think it was the post about Deepwater Discovery moving out of the JDZ, but why would they delete that? Some else psted the same thing earlier, I believe it was Pup.
What'd *I* do?
Why was my post deleted?
tryoty@gmail.com
Goat, I would like to debate you, but
I'm not sure on which points, since my post was deleted. Since when is a projection on oil's future not considered on topic for an oil stock? Geez.
An no LFG, I have all the shares I want, I don't need more.
BB, as I said earlier, I don't think we'll hear obo-1 estimates until June, *IF* obo-2 is underway.
And now that it seems Deepwater Discovery has been released to drill outside the JDZ, thus no obo-2, why would CVX announce ANYTHING.
It's like taking a time out before the opponent makes a field goal attempt...
They're trying to ice us. I'm not blinking, are you?
It's all a game. The only skill needed to win is patience.
wzebra33, thanks for that chart...
last week someone posted that ERHE is wound tighter than a 12 hour spring on a 24 hour clock.
The chart you posted clearly shows that. All we need is news to light the fuse.
That's what the future (June) is for...
JMHO
TheDane...
inquiries@nigeriasaotomejda.com
Provided earlier by ajaxxx_99
It was not suppose to be a place for an antagonist to fill his sick needs either.
snow, it would be more beneficial to the board if chcr would use the delete feature on YOU.
All you attempt to do is disrupt.
TheDane,
I "suggested" that the JDA update it's site with the many events that have happened since their last update Feb 7th.
*If* I can get them engaged in promoting the JDZ there would be no better way to stimulate the media than providing them a link to the JDA site.
But getting them Sao Tomeans to move is like pouring frozen molasses!
It's worth a shot. An individual investor hyping ERHE to a reporter carries far less credibility than the same information the official JDA site.
Feel free to join me. As lazy as these guys are they might just update the site to stop all the email! LOL!
I don't want to poo-poo anyones predictions...
lord knows I love reading them, but I'm beginning to think
we will not hear anything until June.
Before you blast me, think about it... obo-1 took 61 days to drill. It is RUMORED that obo-2 was started March 29th. To me that indicates obo-2 won't be complete until the end of May.
ERHE is not going to sell it's portion of the straddle to Sinopec until it has a darn good idea what is done there. And while I disagree that it's even an option, Sinopec is not going to sell it's part of the straddle to CVX/XOM until they have a darn good idea what is down there.
Even after obo-2 (if it is even being drilled) they may not have a complete picture.
I'm not saying we won't get a PR saying obo-1 indicates recoverable in excess of 1 bbl. Maybe even raising that to 2 bbl after obo-2 results are analyzed in June. It took 4 wells to prove out AKPO's 1 bbl, if this is bigger as suggested by a few, I would think they'll need 6-8 wells to accurately prove it.
With all that said, why are we talking about deals when logic dictates that the block 2 consortium sit tight until the unknown becomes known?
I'm not saying we won't know anything until 2007, remember, we have a rig headed in there this summer. We'll have proven oil soon enough, but this watching the clock tick-tock expecting news at any time will just drive you crazy. I don't think news, at least not reserve estimates, is anywhere near being released.
Yes, that is a shift from my past views. It just makes more sense to me.
Maestro's a basher and you're his wing man.
That has been clear to me for months.
Dadd, "The ignore feature works very well"???
Yes it does, but then every new investor that discovers ERHE and seeks information here will read maestro. They'll get the anti-story and run.
"Most" investors are smart enough to NOT use message boards as info sources, but in OTC:BB-land sometimes that's all you've got, especially with a tight-lipped crew like those running ERHC Energy.
Maestro hurts ERHE, and does it intentionally and frequently. He says he owns shares. When I think about that, I laugh. If I was as down in the dirt negative about a company's prospects as Maestro is on ERHE, I wouldn't own the stock.
Anyway, my point is, maestro is intentionally disruptive and negative, yet is allowed to run free on I-HUB. On the dawn of the brightest day of ERHC Energy's existance, it befuddles me why this clown isn't bounced back to Raging Bull where he belongs.
Nigeria, Sao Tome and Principe
[This is old, but new to me so I thought other might have missed it]
http://www.pgs.com/Custom/templates/Page____26103.aspx
Oil production on the Niger delta first began with Shell in 1958. Since then, exploration and production has gradually moved into deeper waters. The blocks where PGS have shot MC3D seismic are located in water depths of 2-3 km (Figure 2). PGS has acquired this seismic in co-operation with its Nigerian partner IDSL. The surveys are close to major worldclass discoveries such as Ukot, Akpo, Nnwa and Agbami.
The Niger river has transported enormous amount of sediments into the marine environment from Late Eocene onwards , prograding the coastline approximately 200 kilometers southwestwards during the Late Eocene to Recent. Altogether, more than 10 kms of sediments have accumulated. The rapid deposition has lead to overcompaction and mobilization of clays, forming shale diapirs. Gravity tectonism dominates the delta.
The prospective areas north of Sao Tome and Principe contain the deepwater extension of the Niger Delta in the JDZ and are situated adjacent to the Akpo field. The recently discovered La Ceiba field in Equatorial Guinea also proves that a separate hydrocarbon system exists to the east of Sao Tome. <STPEEZ may be more fruitful than we thought -- tryoty>
PGS has entered into an exclusive agreement with the Government of Sao Tome and Principe to assist them in promoting their offshore acreage in future license rounds. As a result of this, PGS has acquired an MC3D seismic survey that covers the most prospective area of the Joint Development Zone (JDZ) between Nigeria and Sao Tome & Principe (Figure 2).
The JDZ includes the southernmost extent of the outer compressional fold belt of the Niger Delta. The PGS survey shows that the structuring is complex and characterised by large distal toethrusts trending northwest-southeast, terminating toward the southern part of the 3D survey against thrusts that trend more east-west. The toe-thrusts are relatively recent features that deform thick sedimentary successions of Oligocene- Pliocene age.
The survey data show excellent seismic facies resolution of numerous turbidite channel systems within the Agbada formation equivalent. Analogues of theses facies can be seen in present day channels observed traversing the JDZ area. Direct hydrocarbon indicators (DHI) are also numerous and will help define potential hydrocarbon accumulations.
Ninety percent of deepwater hydrocarbons found to date in the Niger Delta have been trapped within turbidite sandstones. In addition, two-thirds of deepwater reserves in the delta have been found in traps with a stratigraphic component. Although large structures are currently being drilled in the region, they more often that not have a stratigraphic overprint. Explorationists need to understand the often-complex relationship between the turbidite systems, and the structuring observed.
"i wonder what is going on.", MASSIVE deal-making, IMO.
I just hope ERHE doesn't agree to anything without poking a hole themselves. There is big money in this... I can't see ERHE sitting at the table and saying, "Since CVX geologists say you found a billion barrel field, and they say 100 million barrels is in block 2, we'll accept that as fact".
Does anyone really think CVX is going to tell us all they found was a gas pocket and all the oil is in block 2??? (IF that is the case, it's a hypothetical scenario).
"Trust, but verify" comes to mind.
Punch hole(s), then sell the straddle. There's no other logical way to proceed. I think the delays in getting the info out are because Brandhuber is telling Sinopec (or whoever is courting us) "Nope, it's ours".
And I think the recent push from umbra to activate the media may be because "the buyer" may be cornering Brandhuber and he could possibly be in trouble. The sooner the truth hits the media the less chance Big Oil has to strong arm us.
Thanks umbra, 45691 is the funniest post this year!!
--- Edited to add the post number above, I replied to the wrong post.
"Sometimes they don't leave much"
Either way, there is NOTHING you can do about it if that's their plan. It boils down to, do you trust them?
"the prise of gas should drop over one dollar when this discovery is announced"
That's just babbling nonsense.
Even a 10 billion barrel find would add less than 1% to known world reserves. Just how is adding 1% going to drop gas 30%.
That's nuts!
Art, I edited my post to accurately state that my views and yours are very close.
We're on the same page.
Art, I just read your post... I leave this only to prevent the 20 questions asking where it went. We're on the same page.
____ Edited to add the above.
Art, don't bother Umbra with questions he can't answer.
"How can you or we the shareholders encourage CEO Brandhuber to come out with press releases about the accomplishments and the excellent possbilities ahead for the company.
You have stated that with formal disclaimers he could issue press releases about different opportunities. He could state generally what the company is hoping to accomplish during the coming months. This could also be done in the long promised update and letter to shareholders on the website"
Art, when playing poker, do you ask, "is holding Four Aces good?"
What the compnay is trying to accomplish in the coming months is to grow, and the company is finding out that in an environment of daytraders real valuation is impossible.
That's why leaving the OTC will happen.
At the end of the day the flippers that saw the potential and flipped to get more will leave because they can't wait or got screwed. Let them go.
Brandhuber will respond in the only way that matters. If you hold the stock, you will benefit. If you're flipping? You might get lucky, or screwed.
This one is too big to play that game, IMO.
This is where everyone get p|ssy with each other.
Lots of rumor, deafening silence from the JDZ partners. No
facts. I've rode this train before, it was/is NOT pretty.
Umbra and Oilphant seem pretty positive, but people are antsy because nothing they've predicted has been accurate.
I need not even comment on Meridian.
Some are honest, some are hopeful, and some have an agenda.
We end up with whatever the vultures leave us.
After a month away...
...from RagingBull, I stopped back in to see what was going on.
Humanity doesn't deserve to evolve. 90% of those posts could result in jail time if there realy was an SEC out there.
Unbelievable.
Extremely eloquent Badog. Thanks.
TheDane, I *think* you left a "not" out of that last sentence.