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Kaja Bear N,
Current Position: 200% Short
Buy Stop: 37.91
Resistance: 37.10
Support: 36.63
Today a long-legged Doji was formed (http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQ,uu[w,a]declyiay[dc][pc20!h.02,.20!d20,2!c200!i!f][vc.... This implies a loss of sense of direction and that there is a great amount of indecision in the market. In addition, the $NAMO had a negative divergence with price (http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NAMO,uu[d,a]dhllynay[dd][pb50!a-55!d20,2!a35!f][iUb7!La.... Lastly, the RSI is in a presignal area for a sell. MACD divergence with price still intact. I don't understand how you want to be 120% long for Monday with the weight of the evidence pointing down? I'm missing something and would like to understand what you see in the tea leaves pointing toward a 120% long position.
Thanks Gizmo
Hope you are right Frank!
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4404489
Sounds reasonable.
I'm typically a little early visa-a-via late...
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OFC,
I don't belief the techs have broken out yet. Do you?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4404489
The 200% short is why I'm keeping the buy stop close...
Hi Gizmo,
Is the NDX/VXO ratio out-of-sight yet?
Hi Kaja Bear N,
Here's my update for 27 Oct 04. The market did oblige!
Current Position: 200% Short
Buy Stop: 37.91
Resistance: 37.13
Support: 36.63
Most pundits today gave the all clear to buy. I don't believe them. Because of this, I subsequently shorted the QQQ @ 36.68.
Most sustainable rallies start from oversold levels. Today's upside move doesn't fit the script. In fact, the MACD indicator is suggesting we are closer to a sell than a buy. How's this so? First, there's a negative divergence between the MACD and price in that price surged to a new high today and the MACD didn't surge to a new high for the swing. This is indicating a bearish undertone. Second, since the intermediate-term downtrend started in Jan 04, MACD has done an adequate job of calling the top of the short-term swings. The blue vertical lines on the chart show the MACD sell points. My reading of the tea leaves suggest we are near the level associated with a confirmed sell. From a long-position perspective, the reward/risk ratio is negative. Upside potential is 37.90 from a base of 36.73 and the minimum downside move is 34.50. In case I'm wrong on this speculation, my buy stop is 37.91.
http://img6.imgspot.com/u/04/300/18/QQQdailyMACD102704.jpg
http://img3.imgspot.com/u/04/300/18/QQQdaily102704.jpg
Kaja Bear N
I wouldn't rule out a rally on Wednesday like you expect. Matter of fact, hope we get to at least 36.56. Let me explain...
Current Position: 100% Cash
Support: 35.50-35.70
Resistance: 36.15
Got out this morning @ 35.49 to lock in gains from the recent short trade. I didn't like the positive divergence between the hourly RSI and price which forecasted today's rally. Nevertheless, my bias is still bearish, and I'm looking to take on a short Wednesday at either of the following two levels: 36.56 or 35.20. Otherwise, just going to remain in cash...
http://img8.imgspot.com/u/04/299/18/QQQdaily102604.jpg
No need to hurry out of your short Kaja Bear N. Here's my update on the cubes...
Current Position: 200% Short
Trailing Stop: 36.79
Significant technical news today: 1) The SAR point is now 36.79 and it's in a short or sell mode; 2) The 31-day SMA inside the Bollinger Bands and the uptrend line are providing support; 3) Today price range was below the 17-day EMA which is a bearish sign; 4) When price breaks out from the wedge pattern it's in, look for significant volatility.
http://img5.imgspot.com/u/04/298/19/QQQdaily102504.jpg
Here's my update on the cubes...
Current Position: 200% Short
Trailing Stop: 36.79
Significant technical news today: 1) The SAR point is now 36.79 and it's in a short or sell mode; 2) The 31-day SMA inside the Bollinger Bands and the uptrend line are providing support; 3) Today price range was below the 17-day EMA which is a bearish sign; 4) When price breaks out from the wedge pattern it's in, look for significant volatility.
http://img5.imgspot.com/u/04/298/19/QQQdaily102504.jpg
Kaja Bear N
Still riding the QQQ bear?
Looks like more weakness is ahead. The recent price action around the Bollinger Bands compared to the action of the RSI confirms a short position is the place to be. Prices recently peaked above the upper band on 6 Oct. This action was followed by a selloff and then another peak inside the bands on 21 Oct. The RSI has diverged from this price action with successive lower peaks, suggesting weakness ahead. A protective buy stop should be placed at 36.79. Confirming this selling opportunity is the Chaikin A/D oscillator which crossed from positive to negative territory last Friday. I feel good about this short because we have the first condition of a double top forming too. If QQQ will close decisively less than 35.43, then a double top will be in place for a move toward 34.50.
http://img7.imgspot.com/u/04/297/18/QQQdaily102204.jpg
Thanks for the URLs BULLarkey
QQQ: More Weakness Ahead
Looks like more weakness is ahead. The recent price action around the Bollinger Bands compared to the action of the RSI confirms a short position is the place to be. Prices recently peaked above the upper band on 6 Oct. This action was followed by a selloff and then another peak inside the bands on 21 Oct. The RSI has diverged from this price action with successive lower peaks, suggesting weakness ahead. A protective buy stop should be placed at 36.79. Confirming this selling opportunity is the Chaikin A/D oscillator which crossed from positive to negative territory last Friday. I feel good about this short because we have the first condition of a double top forming too. If QQQ will close decisively less than 35.43, then a double top will be in place for a move toward 34.50.
http://img7.imgspot.com/u/04/297/18/QQQdaily102204.jpg
Thanks for the input chichi2.
I don't put much weight into excessive put or call info anymore because they aren't consistent for my liking relative to giving accurate signals. Nevertheless, thanks for your opinion.
Worked out OK Kaja Bear N!
QQQ: On the Way Down?
Current Position: 200% Short.
Trailing Stop: 36.71.
Cover 1/2 of position: 35.21.
Review of evidence leading me to the conclusion to remain short:
Lots of price resistance between 36.50 & 36.71. This is a negative.
61.8% Fib retracement area around 36.50. This is a negative.
NAMO not overbought or oversold. This is neutral. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NAMO,uu[d,a]dhllynay[dd][pb50!a-55!d20,2!a35!f][iUb7!La...
NAA50 looking toppy. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NAA50,uu[w,a]ddlaynay[dc][pd20,2!a430!a830!f][iut!La12,... This is a negative.
Number of new lows out paced the number of new highs on the Nasdaq today; this is normally a bearish-trend warning.
SMH technical chart is improving. Money moving into the techs. This is positive.
Price near upper Raff Regression Line. This condition typically functions as resistance which is negative.
Chaikin Oscillator on a sell signal.
MACD on a sell signal.
Ultimate Oscillator on a buy signal.
Price Oscillator between 9 & 20 EMA on a sell signal.
Slow Stochastics on a sell signal.
RSI (13) on a sell signal.
ADXR at 16 and trending down suggesting to emphasize momentum-based indicators relative to trend-following indicators.
Volume trend hasn't expanded since the price low in August. Volume not confirming the intermediate-term trend.
Price above SAR. This is positive.
Price in the upper half of its Bollinger Bands. This is positive.
Price above its 200-day SMA and 17-day EMA. This is positive.
11 Negative, 4 positive, the rest neutral. Unless 36.71 is taken out with heavy volume, my bias is negative.
See http://img7.imgspot.com/u/04/293/19/QQQdaily102004.jpg
Maybe/Maybe Not...Here's my take on the QQQs...
Current Position: 200% Short.
Trailing Stop: 36.71.
Cover 1/2 of position: 35.21.
Review of evidence leading me to the conclusion to remain short:
Lots of price resistance between 36.50 & 36.71. This is a negative.
61.8% Fib retracement area around 36.50. This is a negative.
NAMO not overbought or oversold. This is neutral. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NAMO,uu[d,a]dhllynay[dd][pb50!a-55!d20,2!a35!f][iUb7!La...
NAA50 looking toppy. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NAA50,uu[w,a]ddlaynay[dc][pd20,2!a430!a830!f][iut!La12,... This is a negative.
Number of new lows out paced the number of new highs on the Nasdaq today; this is normally a bearish-trend warning.
SMH technical chart is improving. Money moving into the techs. This is positive.
Price near upper Raff Regression Line. This condition typically functions as resistance which is negative.
Chaikin Oscillator on a sell signal.
MACD on a sell signal.
Ultimate Oscillator on a buy signal.
Price Oscillator between 9 & 20 EMA on a sell signal.
Slow Stochastics on a sell signal.
RSI (13) on a sell signal.
ADXR at 16 and trending down suggesting to emphasize momentum-based indicators relative to trend-following indicators.
Volume trend hasn't expanded since the price low in August. Volume not confirming the intermediate-term trend.
Price above SAR. This is positive.
Price in the upper half of its Bollinger Bands. This is positive.
Price above its 200-day SMA and 17-day EMA. This is positive.
11 Negative, 4 positive, the rest neutral. Unless 36.71 is taken out with heavy volume, my bias is negative.
See http://img7.imgspot.com/u/04/293/19/QQQdaily102004.jpg
Thanks Gizmo for the updates!
Gizmo
Is the NDX/VXO ratio in a cover short configuration yet?
koke
Here's an alternative view for next week...
With Friday's close, QQQ went on a intermediate-term sell signal using a weekly-data compression and the RSI. Note the duration of the down periods have been decreasing during corrective waves two and four of the cyclical bull phase we are currently in. If the current decreasing corrective pattern continues, then 3-4 more weeks to the downside before an intermediate-term bottom.
http://img6.imgspot.com/u/04/282/16/QQQweeklyRSI100804.jpg
http://img6.imgspot.com/u/04/282/17/QQQweekly100804.jpg
Below is the shot-term view using daily data. With the weekly turning to a sell, the odds of gap support holding around 35.20 have decreased. Next stop appears to be around 38.2% retracement level.
http://img6.imgspot.com/u/04/282/17/QQQdaily100804.jpg
QQQ Intermediate-Term Sell Signal
Current Position: 100% Short and plan on increasing if QQQ closes >= 36.61 on strength next week. Current Trailing Stop: 36.62
With Friday's close, QQQ went on a intermediate-term sell signal using a weekly-data compression and the RSI. Note the duration of the down periods have been decreasing during corrective waves two and four of the cyclical bull phase we are currently in. If the current decreasing corrective pattern continues, then 3-4 more weeks to the downside before an intermediate-term bottom.
http://img6.imgspot.com/u/04/282/16/QQQweeklyRSI100804.jpg
http://img6.imgspot.com/u/04/282/17/QQQweekly100804.jpg
Below is the shot-term view using daily data. With the weekly turning to a sell, the odds of gap support holding around 35.20 have decreased. Next stop appears to be around 38.2% retracement level.
http://img6.imgspot.com/u/04/282/17/QQQdaily100804.jpg
Gizmo
Thanks for publishing it.
Try putting Bollinger Bands around the ratio and you will get much better signals than a static upper or lower limit.
See ya,
Hi Gizmo,
We still in nosebleed territory on the NDX/VXO indicator?
Thanks in advance for your reply.
thanks Dimension
Ek,
No. Your reference was to the top of the gap and mine at the gap's bottom.
Here's my short-term forecast for QQQ. Would appreciate your comments where it is weak.
Current Position: 100% Cash--got stopped out @ 35.53 for a 2.45% loss from a short position.
Yesterday a long green candlestick formed. This shows prices advanced significantly from open to close during the day under strong buying pressure. When the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area (the case yesterday), the long green candle adds credibility to the breakout. Volume and the Chaikin Oscillator confirmed the price move too.
QQQ closed above the upper Bollinger Band and is trading above its key moving averages. There are no divergences at the moment among the momentum/trading indicators I follow with price.
Next short-term resistance is at the 61.8% retracement level (36.45) from the high in Jan 04 until the low in Aug. Next price resistance is at 37.55. Support is at the bottom of yesterday's gap at 35.63. With next resistance being relatively close, I don't feel comfortable entering long at these levels and with price closing outside the upper Bollinger Band. However, if we do get a correction early next week and QQQ dips to 35.63, I'm going to go long as filling the gap is the norm and not the exception.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQ,uu[w,a]declyiay[dc][pc20!h.02,.20!d20,2!c200!i!f][vc...
Here's my short-term forecast for QQQ. Would appreciate your comments where it is weak.
Current Position: 100% Cash--got stopped out @ 35.53 for a 2.45% loss from a short position.
Yesterday a long green candlestick formed. This shows prices advanced significantly from open to close during the day under strong buying pressure. When the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area (the case yesterday), the long green candle adds credibility to the breakout. Volume and the Chaikin Oscillator confirmed the price move too.
QQQ closed above the upper Bollinger Band and is trading above its key moving averages. There are no divergences at the moment among the momentum/trading indicators I follow with price.
Next short-term resistance is at the 61.8% retracement level (36.45) from the high in Jan 04 until the low in Aug. Next price resistance is at 37.55. Support is at the bottom of yesterday's gap at 35.63. With next resistance being relatively close, I don't feel comfortable entering long at these levels and with price closing outside the upper Bollinger Band. However, if we do get a correction early next week and QQQ dips to 35.63, I'm going to go long as filling the gap is the norm and not the exception.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQ,uu[w,a]declyiay[dc][pc20!h.02,.20!d20,2!c200!i!f][vc...
THANKS GIZMO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hi Gizmo,
With today's shart up move, what does the QQQ/volitility ratio look like?
Thanks in advance,
frenchee
jrintl
Go ahead and short it. I think QQQs are a relatively safe short unless 35.20 is decisively taken out.
http://img7.imgspot.com/u/04/271/22/QQQdaily092804.jpg
Frank,
Try http://www.imgspot.com/
QQQ Forecast for 27 Sep 04
The RSI, MACD, and CMF indicators are suggesting QQQ has further to fall. Since the RSI is a momentum-based indicator, MACD is trend based, and the CMF indicator is based on the accumulation/distribution line, all three are measuring different technical aspects of QQQ's performance and all are pointing toward further weakness. The market is in a confirmed bearish trend, according to the 17-day EMA and Friday's price close in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands. In sum, trend and momentum appear bearish, and QQQ isn't oversold yet.
Two significant QQQ components, semiconductor and networking stocks, were relatively poor performers on Friday, down nearly 3% and 2%, respectively. If there's follow through along with the biotechs on Monday, could see a move toward my next price target of 34.50.
In case I'm wrong, I'm moving my GTC stop down to 35.85.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQ,uu[w,a]declyiay[dc][pc17!h.02,.20!d20,2!c200!i!f][vc...
QQQ Forecast for 27 Sep 04
The RSI, MACD, and CMF indicators are suggesting QQQ has further to fall. Since the RSI is a momentum-based indicator, MACD is trend based, and the CMF indicator is based on the accumulation/distribution line, all three are measuring different technical aspects of QQQ's performance and all are pointing toward further weakness. The market is in a confirmed bearish trend, according to the 17-day EMA and Friday's price close in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands. In sum, trend and momentum appear bearish, and QQQ isn't oversold yet.
Two significant QQQ components, semiconductor and networking stocks, were relatively poor performers on Friday, down nearly 3% and 2%, respectively. If there's follow through along with the biotechs on Monday, could see a move toward my next price target of 34.50.
In case I'm wrong, I'm moving my GTC stop down to 35.85.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQ,uu[w,a]declyiay[dc][pc17!h.02,.20!d20,2!c200!i!f][vc...
QQQ Forecast for 27 Sep 04
The RSI, MACD, and CMF indicators are suggesting QQQ has further to fall. Since the RSI is a momentum-based indicator, MACD is trend based, and the CMF indicator is based on the accumulation/distribution line, all three are measuring different technical aspects of QQQ's performance and all are pointing toward further weakness. The market is in a confirmed bearish trend, according to the 17-day EMA and Friday's price close in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands. In sum, trend and momentum appear bearish, and QQQ isn't oversold yet.
Two significant QQQ components, semiconductor and networking stocks, were relatively poor performers on Friday, down nearly 3% and 2%, respectively. If there's follow through along with the biotechs on Monday, could see a move toward my next price target of 34.50.
In case I'm wrong, I'm moving my GTC stop down to 35.85.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQ,uu[w,a]declyiay[dc][pc17!h.02,.20!d20,2!c200!i!f][vc...
QQQ Forecast for 27 Sep 04
The RSI, MACD, and CMF indicators are suggesting QQQ has further to fall. Since the RSI is a momentum-based indicator, MACD is trend based, and the CMF indicator is based on the accumulation/distribution line, all three are measuring different technical aspects of QQQ's performance and all are pointing toward further weakness. The market is in a confirmed bearish trend, according to the 17-day EMA and Friday's price close in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands. In sum, trend and momentum appear bearish, and QQQ isn't oversold yet.
Two significant QQQ components, semiconductor and networking stocks, were relatively poor performers on Friday, down nearly 3% and 2%, respectively. If there's follow through along with the biotechs on Monday, could see a move toward my next price target of 34.50.
In case I'm wrong, I'm moving my GTC stop down to 35.85.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQ,uu[w,a]declyiay[dc][pc17!h.02,.20!d20,2!c200!i!f][vc...
QQQ Forecast for 27 Sep 04
The RSI, MACD, and CMF indicators are suggesting QQQ has further to fall. Since the RSI is a momentum-based indicator, MACD is trend based, and the CMF indicator is based on the accumulation/distribution line, all three are measuring different technical aspects of QQQ's performance and all are pointing toward further weakness. The market is in a confirmed bearish trend, according to the 17-day EMA and Friday's price close in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands. In sum, trend and momentum appear bearish, and QQQ isn't oversold yet.
Two significant QQQ components, semiconductor and networking stocks, were relatively poor performers on Friday, down nearly 3% and 2%, respectively. If there's follow through along with the biotechs on Monday, could see a move toward my next price target of 34.50.
In case I'm wrong, I'm moving my GTC stop down to 35.85.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQ,uu[w,a]declyiay[dc][pc17!h.02,.20!d20,2!c200!i!f][vc...