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FA,
Suspect this is why my VGZ gained today. Hope the $USD is making a short-term double top...
Nasdaq looks bad. Thanks for the post...
John Murphy Update for 20 Jan 05
NASDAQ 100 BREAKS TRENDLINE SUPPORT... The Nasdaq market took a decided turn for the worse today. Chart 6 shows the Nasdaq 100 Shares (QQQQ) breaking their rising trendline drawn under the August/November lows. That's not good (unless you're short). There's little doubt that the QQQQ is heading to lower levels. It's now a matter of how low. The blue horizontal lines represent percentage retracement levels from the August low to the December high. They help provide downside targets. The QQQQ is nearing a 38% retracement near 37. I doubt if that will hold. The next downside target would be a 50% retracement (see middle line) at 36. That would also be a test of the (red) 200-day moving average. That will be a VERY important test for the Nasdaq and the rest of the market. Volume rose today in the Nasdaq and on the big board as all the major stock indexes lost more ground. The Dow and the S&P 500 indexes are dangerously close to breaking some support levels of their own. They're being hurt by the falling QQQQ/S&P ratio line. That's why Nasdaq underperformance is never good for the market.
Kaja,
I was hoping too because I was long. Got stopped out at the open. My mentor John Murphy, sums it up...
NASDAQ 100 BREAKS TRENDLINE SUPPORT... The Nasdaq market took a decided turn for the worse today. Chart 6 shows the Nasdaq 100 Shares (QQQQ) breaking their rising trendline drawn under the August/November lows. That's not good (unless you're short). There's little doubt that the QQQQ is heading to lower levels. It's now a matter of how low. The blue horizontal lines represent percentage retracement levels from the August low to the December high. They help provide downside targets. The QQQQ is nearing a 38% retracement near 37. I doubt if that will hold. The next downside target would be a 50% retracement (see middle line) at 36. That would also be a test of the (red) 200-day moving average. That will be a VERY important test for the Nasdaq and the rest of the market. Volume rose today in the Nasdaq and on the big board as all the major stock indexes lost more ground. The Dow and the S&P 500 indexes are dangerously close to breaking some support levels of their own. They're being hurt by the falling QQQQ/S&P ratio line. That's why Nasdaq underperformance is never good for the market.
Amen to that!
financialadvisor,
Wow! I got much more in your response than I bargined for. Thanks for the advise...
Hello financialadvisor,
What is you expected low point or criteria before a countertrend rally starts?
Thanks in advance.
Get stopped out. Will regroup...
Me too Kaja Bear N. See http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5166681
Current stop @ 37.81. Short-term outlook getting worse but weight of evidence still suggests a long. Nas Bullish % Index ($BPCOMPQ) and Nas McClellan Oscillator Ratio Adjusted ($NAMO) still on a buy signal. See http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NAMO,uu[d,a]ddlayyay[dc][pd20,2!a25!a-45!f][vc60][iLk14... for NAMO and http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$BPCOMPQ,uu[d,a]ddlayyay[dc][pd20,2!a25!a-45!f][vc60][iL... for BPCOMPQ. For a graphic look at how I see the QQQQ reference http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQQ,uu%5bw,a%5ddeclyiay%5bdc%5d%5bph.02,.20!d20,2!b9!i!...
Bottom line: Suggest accumulation down to 37.80 for trading on 20 Jan 05.
Hello Gizmo,
Thanks for the URL on LW...
My next target is 39.09, prior swing low. By the look of the momentum indicators, current move, at worst, should only be half done. Nevertheless, key resistance is at the 20 and 50 SMA areas which is near. If we get a decisive sell off at this area, time to short this ETF as the weekly view is already on a sell.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQQ,uu%5bw,a%5ddeclyiay%5bdc%5d%5bph.02,.20!d20,2!b9!i!...
USDollar,
Your chart shows as a red x. Please preview to make sure it works and resend your chart or a URL to it.
Thanks,
stockmen,
I had a simular question and one of Investorshub's key gold bugs gave me an excellent technical analysis. Check out http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5142277
The answer helped me and I hope it helps you.
Thanks financialadvisor
4godnwv,
Appreciate you taking the time to respond.
I got in it at 3.49 and was thinking I made a mistake with the $USD starting to move north. Sounds I might be a tad early but should be ok in the intermediate term. Thanks again...
I bought it and it's a reference book. Suggest you save your $$$ and reference it at a library.
Marc Faber is bullish on the dollar. See http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/marketcoms/mcdownloads/050107.pdf
The $USD strength has me worried about my investments in VGZ and NEM. If the $USD closes higher than 83.79 this week, gold stocks are in for a tuff time relative to the long side. Check out http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$usd,uu[w,a]declyiay[dc][ph.02,.20!d20,2!b9!i!b200!b18!b... and you will see what I mean...
4Godnwv,
What's your technical analysis on VGZ for the short term? Thanks!
Naz 100 ETF board is born... http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=3358
Naz 100 ETF board is born... http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=3358
Naz 100 ETF board is born... http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=3358
QQQQs look like a short-term buy. See
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NAA50,uu[w,a]ddlaynay[dc][pd20,2!a430!a830!f][iut!La12,...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NAMO,uu%5bd,a%5ddilayyay%5bdc%5d%5bpd20,2!a25!a-45!f%5d...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQQ,uu%5bw,a%5ddeclyiay%5bdc%5d%5bph.02,.20!d20,2!b9!i!...
tarm--check out http://www.robertwcolby.com/RelativeAdvantage.html to improve your tarm.
Barron's Market Laboratory under Week's Market Statistics.
Hope you are right Gizmo!
Good site chichi2. Thanks.
36.80
Looking to close my long on Thursday and possible go short again.
Kaja, I shorted yesterday. Anticipate this to be a short-term trade. Looking for an opportunity to load up long after the current overbought condition is taken care of since the weekly charts are still positive. 36.79 appears to be next support level. See http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQ,uu[w,a]declyiay[dc][pc20!h.02,.20!d20,2!c200!i!f][vc...
Bull,
I believe you are correct. My $NAMO chart is showing a sell signal with today's action. See http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NAMO,uu[d,a]dhllynay[dd][pb50!a-55!d20,2!a35!f][iUb7!La...
Thanks for the link and update Kaja
It's done a good job. Thanks for sharing...
QQQ Long-Term Look
http://img5.imgspot.com/u/04/303/09/QQQmonthly102904.jpg
Each candlestick from the market top on March 2000 shows one months price range. My long-term timing model is still in a long position since price closed above the red action line. Resistance is indicated 37.75 and support at 34.75. 34.75 is a key level because that's the forecasted end of November action limit for a sell under my timing model and is also a key Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, long-term trend is up, intermediate-term trend is down, and the short-term trend is up IMHO.
Valuation Wave Reversion 4
http://www.safehaven.com/article-2142.htm
Thanks for the comprehensive reply Kaja. Your points will lead to do some more indepth research/analysis this weekend. Appreciate you taking the time to explain your view.