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Do you honestly think we're going to need to wait until orders for carbon capture start to ramp up? I'm in the camp of prove backlog in revenues will continue to improve then get some sort of substantial order the public is confident we can fulfill. no need to get to the point of profitability or start production for carbon capture. The first vote of confidence in ramping up carbon capture will do it. And that is already in the works
FYI, I am long, accumulating 15 years. Never sold, nor will I til $20. Time is nearing!
10 million shares in 15-20 minutes. Hm
Concensus on stocktwits seems to be Fuel cell will get all of Poscos buisiness. We may end up buying. Think the $50 mill has anything to do with this?? I thought it would be to build LIPA. Figured that was the final step before signing the PPA.
11.2 megawatts currently. generating 7 to 8 million a year. So my calculations are based on 7.5 million because the variable is how much they are charging for generation. I divided the income by the megawatts and figure it out how much per megawatt there generating Revenue wise. By added to megawatts in construction right now that will be added to the generation portfolio in July and then the mega watch that are in construction that will be added for the portfolio by January.
I stand corrected again, look at the chart. A 40mw order of power generation translates to $4 million EBIDTA or $1-$2 million free cash flow. Look at the charts you sent!!
Yes I see that graph thank you once again. So according to that if they accomplish what they are trying to on time then they will have 16.3 megawatts of power generation per year as of the end of 3rd quarter. Or approximately $24.5 million a year. And as of January of 2019 they would have 24.1 megawatts of generation which would give them 36 million a year in power generation. So if by January we are on target, then we are almost halfway profitability just on generation. As you and I know and everyone should know that's following stock a company does not need to be profitable in order for the stock to do well. They just need for people to believe in the company and see the progress they're making. If FCEL continue to maintain a significant amount of cash on hand or available cash like we have done and backlog grows we fulfill obligations like we have been, a company should be at least 4 or 5 times multiples not 1.5. At $1.70 we are not even at 1.5 times. This is a no brainier when they sign LIPA by end of summer and complete the current projects under construction on time and get contracts signed for CT RFPs. That's not a huge feat.
Ty. My figures were obviously wrong and I can't remember exactly how I came up with them, but it had something to do with calculations in the 4th quarter and 1st quarter based on sales for the quarter being more than 25% of the annual required sales combined with 11mw generation and thinking they were going to turn a profit due to that combination. And they were at a gross profit. I apologize and thanks again for helping me out with the facts. That said, they are projected to finish a couple projects contributing to the generation portfolio by the end of Q3. By year end, generation portfolio is supposed to be at about 30mw. So in 2019, we need about 25mw of sales combined with the 30mw generation to be break even. So, as long as we hit 30mw generation we she be in a great position. LIPA will be added to generation becaklog by end of summer if Chip is correct. So sad to say, I wait again. Sounds like many are starting to give up hope just before take off.
I apologize, I just listened to the conference call and didn't hear it. I wanted to confirm the exact numbers, but while trying to find it, I recall how I came up with 25. I mixed my numbers up because before I was calculating 1/2 PPA required to get even EBIDTA with part of the sales required for EBIDTA. I know EBIDTA used to be 70 megawatts of sales. That was prior to them improving their margins and developing power purchase agreements. Without finding the information and if anybody could find it that would be greatly appreciated I believe I work all power generation alone would be 45 megawatts a year or between 50 and 60 megawatts of sales. If anybody has the time to find it or knows where to find it and help me out or help us out that would be great I know I've seen it before but I'm fried from working in the sun today. Sorry for the inaccurate, I don't usually make those but I do take responsibility for any mistakes that I make I apologize
I am a long investor, not a trader. Part of the problem is there are a lot of traders that know they can make money on this stock because of its potential. Like you said they're picking from the garden. Learning what I've learned in seeing what I've seen I would do exactly what the company is doing. In their motivation is to build enough recurring positive cash flow that they are a cash earning growth company. The reason to have the cash on hand I've already mentioned at least a couple of times. The new refinance loan from Hercules capital requires that they always maintain at least 50% of the loan value in cash and they have several projects they may need a substantial amount of money to build, so they are applying to have the shares available for sale if they need the money. They may also need to be able to prove financially that they have the capacity to complete a project in order to receive the project. Such as to finalize the Lipa projects. Just because they received an RFP award does not mean they will complete it. And most everyone knows that, which is why this stock is not over $2 right now. But once contracts are signed for Lipa it will definitely go well over $2. In once contracts are signed for the rfps in Connecticut it will go to $3 no problem. No Traders or shorts will be able to prevent that. But they will continue to follow the stock because they know it is going much higher once Things fall in place. If this stock is not over $3 by sometime in August I will gladly say fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me and I am a fool. But for now I'm confident that is not the case.
Applied for shares to sell at current market value at a future date if needed, ie to build a big project like LIPA or Beacon Falls. They do not need cash right now as they have more than ever and selling in the future at the current stock price does not imply dilution. DOES NOT imply. If they sell at a high enough price, which would be $1.84. and if they were selling stock at $1.85 to build 3 projects totalling 39.8 MW in Long Island to own and have PPA which would give them 3 times the gross profit of a sale and bring the total Power generation to 60 MW, surpassing the 25 they need to have a net break even, do you think they might get some buyers????
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I've heard some pretty silly statements in the past few days one in particular was how about Bloom is going to buy out fuel cell which is completely ludicrous. A more realistic view is fuel-cell buys out bloom. Read the post I just posted. Sure sounds a little funny but much more realistic than them buying FCEL. FCEL has a lot of tech Bloom doesn't but bloom has smaller scale tech and is in with some big companies. If the IPO doesn't pan out, they might be looking for a suitor. Hm. And if you think that sounds rediculous then look at the rest of the posts I've been reading ever since an anyslist got the numbers all screwed up. You can't make $.17 loss match up with $20.43 million in Revenue when Q1 was a loss of $.17 on $39 million and Q4 2017 was a loss of $.12 on $48 million. I said it before, they took last year's Q2 revenue and this year's Q1 loss and combined them to throw numbers out there. Made no sense before the report or after. That was NOT fuel cells guidance. That was bogus and that's a fact. I'm telling you big things coming by end of summer but that's okay, beat it down, I get another commission check the first week of every month!!!
Holding a more critical view, David Stevenson, energy analyst at the Wilmington-based Caesar Rodney Institute, said Bloom's IPO is an indication that the company has "run out of people to borrow from."
"They've been losing money since day 1," he said. "This is their last ditch effort, in my opinion, to raise money to cover their loses."
As a result, Stevenson warns that Bloom's anemic cash flows may lead to bankruptcy.
Its loses come as Bloom engineers have worked to develop and streamline the production of solid-oxide fuel cells, which generate electricity using an electrochemical reaction with natural gas. Company officials say that makes them more environmentally friendly than traditional combustion technology.
David Stevenson is the director of the Center for Energy Competitiveness at the Wilmington-based Caesar Rodney Institute.
PHOTO PROVIDED
I'm not quite sure what your name stands for but I can guess. Please identify what you mean by factual errors. It'll be interesting if you could State some facts to back that up. I will gladly say I told you so
That's funny. You were never me. I've been invested in this stock since 2001. I'm disappointed about the communication with investors and sales but not so much as with PR. Lack of sales was mostly related to lack of incentives and public acceptance and ignorance.
The time frame has been longer than what I owe hoped for or expected. But again that wasn't necessarily related to the company. I did question using power purchase agreements as much as they have instead of sales due to the cash needs and the lack of immediate Revenue. However now I clearly grasp the concept and agree with it. We all have a right to an opinion and I believe this was the best approach for them. This way they did not need to sell the fuel cell rather just provide Power and have higher margins for the company as well as building long-term recurring Revenue. If you don't agree with her understand that that is your prerogative. But the result is that once we start earning enough revenue from Power purchase agreements the stock and the revenue are going to go through the roof. And my time frames may be wrong once again. But I am certain about one thing. I have had a $10 price Target for March of next year for about the past year. And at this point I am sticking to it. Only time will tell and the best thing about this stock is we could get a 1/2 200% gain within a couple of days with the right news report. We have five or six potential huge deals coming within the next year or so. We will get the Long Island project signed by the end of the summer. We will get the contract signed for 22.2 megawatts of rfps in Connecticut before the winter. That is 62 megawatts of deals which we have never had before in less than a year let alone a few months apart. We have incentives that really put a damper on the fuel cell industry the end of 2016. One of the main problems with the stock right now is many people like you believe it's the same story when it's not. Once everybody understands that within the next few months the stock is going to take off like a rocket. We only need 25 megawatts of power generation in order to achieve a net break even. We will be close to that by the end of the year. Which means we are going to have a net-positive quarter within the next three quarters for sure. We will get another carbon capture project. We will get another hydrogen project from Toyota or shell or possibly even some other company but it seems to be Toyota right now. Public acceptance will grow in this will all happen before next summer. And if you truly did believe in the company and are not a short then you will invest your money in it and simply say I hope you're right.
I wish all the best. Keep the faith. I have been wrong about time frame but I will venture a very conservative guess that even if I'm wrong about mid-March being the $10 price point, which I'm almost certain I'm not wrong, I would extend it three more months and say bye next June 10th.
And of course you and I and everyone knows there's a difference between getting an RFP decision and fulfilling that. And that is why once these rfps are signed and ready to build like Long Island and Connecticut the stock is going to shoot up substantially like more than 100%. How many times in the past have people gotten excited about a stock or about a fuel cell company and their stock in been let down. Once they find out it's for real it's Off to the Races. Contracts are supposed to be signed by end of summer. All contracts through Connecticut and Long Island. Anybody not in before then misses out on over 100% gain.
No I think everybody thinks this is a company issue in the management issue and to me it's not. It's all the other people would miss representation in misinterpretations that's making the stock do what it's doing right now. I'm sure chip has reviewed with the board what their plan of attack is and how they're going to get there. Don't plan for quite some time now has been to build a recurring Revenue through Power purchase agreements which means our current revenue is going to be disappointing. Fuel cell energy has not given guidance on revenue or earnings for a long time now because they knew this. Poor people keep snatching numbers out of the are guessing. Those guesses are hurting because people are taking those guesses literally. For example the first quarter Revenue was 39 million dollars with a loss of $0.17 a share. How can any analyst or anyone suggest they are going to have 20 and a half million Revenue and achieve the same $0.17 a share of loss. that makes no sense whatsoever. They did have a 4.2 million dollar charge for dividends paid to Preferred shareholders in the second quarter. that messed up the numbers a little bit also but it was a one-time charge because the stock was below $1.84. however there will be another one time charge similar if the stock closes below $1.84 this quarter. They also had to write off a $400,000 loss on some product that was a one-time write-off. So there's four point six million dollars in losses they weren't counting on. But there's still no way the 20 and a half million dollar Revenue the analysts projected could equal a $0.17 a share of loss. they had a $0.12 a share loss on 49 million in the fourth quarter last year. they still beat on Revenue by about a million dollars. They have more cash on hand than ever and they have more backlog than ever. Some people including myself were expecting or hoping for more than 22.2 megawatts from Connecticut. but no one seems to have put that into perspective. We have only had orders for 20 megawatts twice in our history. What's recently for South Korea which was a great cash infusion very quickly of over 60 million dollars. And the other time was on the 59 megawatt project in South Korea. People are interpreting the filing as them selling stock and diluting shares immediately and that is not the case at all. These shares would be just like the Shelf registration shares they had before which gives them the ability to get money if and when they need it. The refinancing deal with Hercules Capital requires that they always maintain at least 50% of the loan value at all times in available cash. And they have several big projects lined up right now. This filing is for them to be able to sell stock at the current market price whatever that may be if they decide to do so. And the only reason they would do so would be to build a project such as Long Island or Beacon Falls. The nearing the final stages of the power purchase agreement contracts with Long Island. They may need to prove that they have the available funds in order to fulfill the contracts. That filing would do just that then the power purchase agreements would be signed very shortly afterwards. This is the perfect storm lining up and everybody thinks chip has no idea what he's doing because the stock continues to resist going up. But the stock struggles are related to many people not understanding what's going on and many people trying to short the stock and make money because they know the stock has potential and they can make quick money. They also have several projects in construction phase right now that will be completed before the end of the third quarter which is the end of July. B those will be paid for giving us a substantial amount of Revenue. We also have the final 15% payment from South Korea for the 20 megawatt project equaling approximately 11 million. Patience is the key right now. Lastly the focus has been building power generation Revenue which is recurring revenue and has three times the margins of a straight-up sale. Much much better off for the company in the long run. And once they have 25 megawatts of power generation they will be a net break even from that alone. We will be more than halfway there by the end of the third quarter. Currently our power generation is seven to eight million dollars a year of recurring Revenue. When we finalize the power purchase agreements for Long Island owning all of it they're going to release what the numbers will be. That's going to result in / 62 megawatts of power generation. You should see the big picture on that. We will likely be a net break even on power generation alone in about a year. So that means sometime in the next few quarters we will have a net positive quarter based on power generation combined with other Revenue. If we just continue the slow steady pace we will grow almost at the rate that I expected. My price target for September is still $5. The only thing that would prevent that is people having their head too far up their ass. Understand it.
I'm not quite sure I grasp everybody's concerns. I see how the general public could be ignorant but anybody paying close attention would understand 22.2 megawatts is massive and they got two projects compared to the other two fuel cell companies that only got one project. And the filing for Shares are not shares for them to sell immediately. Door shutters for them to sell it current market value if the need arises. The refinancing loan that they have with Hercules requires that they maintain a certain percentage of the loan value in cash. They're just trying to ensure that they do that while they start building. That cash is on hand if they get the offering and they decide they need to sell some for cash. That way they can build whatever they need to without delay including Long Island or Beacon Falls. If anybody's been paying attention they have more cash available to them right now than ever before so the question is why would they need more and I just explain the answer. Sooner or later people are going to wake up and smell the coffee and it's going to jump very quickly and I'm perfectly content to wait one or two months if I need to. I have been wrong on timeframe obviously but the time frame is not that much longer. They're going to announce by the end of summer if they have another project from South Korea and another project from California and that they have signed the power purchase agreements for 39.8 megawatts in Long Island. people are going to be saying holy you know what. It's just a matter of time. And the time is near. We already have over 15 million dollars in Revenue for the third quarter with a big chunk of Revenue coming in from a couple of projects that are being completed by the end of the quarter. The 15 million comes from the last 15% of the South Korea project that was finished over 2 months in advance. And from power generation which equals right now about 8 million dollars a year or two million dollars a quarter. It only takes 25 megawatts of power purchase agreements per year to be break even. By the end of this year we will have close to that just in power purchase agreements. Then we have revenue from maintenance contracts and any other sales. Not to mention any other project that might come up like Toyota or Exxon. There's no way that stocks should be trading at less than three times value. And by mid September it will not be. I'm guessing it's going to be two to three times higher at a minimum come mid September. We'll just have to wait and see so I can say I told you so or gladly accept other people's comments saying where is that two to three times higher.
We may have one LIPA project completed by this time next year but that would be the most. However once they're deleted they go into backlog as recurring Revenue through Power Generation. I'm thinking by this time next year we have at least 20 megawatts of power generation. Which means we have half of what we need to be ebitda break-even. That means we only need about 22-25 megawatts of sales per year in order to be net positive income. They know it's coming now I wish they would do an announcement identifying how many megawatts a year run rate they're increasing to
I know Bloom is not small I worded that incorrectly. They only compete for a very small part of our business. And they're going public will not change the level that they compete with us nor will it have any negative effect on our sales or our stock price. Contrary it will have a positive effect because any good news about fuel cells in general is good news for our company at this stage
The projects selected are:
200 MW (824,830 MWh) offshore wind from the Revolution Wind Project (Deepwater Wind). This will be incremental to the 400 MW from the same project selected by Rhode Island.
52 MW (450,011 MWh) fuel cells including:
Energy and Innovation Park New Britain (Doosan) 19.98 MW
Colchester (Bloom) 10 MW
Hartford Fuel Cell (Fuel Cell Energy) 7.4 MW
Derby Fuel Cell (Fuel Cell Energy) 14.8 MW
1.6 MW (10,519 MWh) Anaerobic Digestion Southington (Turning Earth)
Cash is for PPA so we can own the fuel cells because they end up having three times the margins of selling a project
That's 2 projects and more than the other 2 fuel cell companies. And that's the start folks. Rev up your engines. Filing for $50 million stock offering at $1.83 a share so no dilution. Garenteed for 39.8 mw in LIPA. By September 15, reiterate $5 minimum. $$$
Everybody has a right to have an opinion. Bloom is a small competitor to FCEL. They will not take away from our core business or our major projects. CCS CHP or multi MW deals.
Bloom's IPO will help us for sure. Any and all positive attention about fuel cells is positive. Anyone thinking differently is delusional
I'm trying to keep my mouth shut but I have to share my opinion which is based on written facts. Bloom has a huge amount of debt and their product is not the same asI fuel cell energy. They have also had a history of problems with their products although they are involved with a couple of big companies. Bloom stock will not take away from Fuel Cell Energy stock. Some Traders may want to get in on it to try to catch a quick boom but investors are going to see more people paying attention to the fuel cell industry because of this. Fuel cells are going to take off this year and real investors will look at Best in breed. Why do you think Toyota chose Fuel Cell Energy. Why you think California loves Fuel Cell Energy even though Bloom is located in California. Just facts. When we get Beacon Falls and Hartford from the rfps that will add over a hundred and twenty million dollars of backlog in one day. If it is a purchase. If it's a power purchase agreement it had three times that. That's why chip has been owning the fuel cells. In financing has been proven to not be an issue as of 2018. Any naysayers do not have any facts to present there simply shorts that are shorting in their pants right now. Hang on for the ride we're almost ready for takeoff
camfield7@yahoo.com officially signing off. I'll just sit and wait good luck. If anybody wants an update I'll give it to them.
've done my due diligence. I've tried to pass on as much information to others as possible. Doesn't seem to make a difference. Accumulate as much as possible
Fact:Backlog sits at a record $681.9 million at the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2018.
Fact:We also have $40 million of borrowing availability under the NRG Energy revolving project finance construction facility
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totaled $105.2 million as of April 30, 2018.
Fact:Product sales totaled $12.2 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2018 compared to $700,000 for the second quarter of fiscal 2017
Fact:second quarter of fiscal 2018 of $20.8 million compared to $20.4 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2017
Fact:Given the current level of backlog and awards the company is evaluating a plan to increase production in the second half of fiscal 2018.
Could be but whoever did it did two things created a great buying opportunity for anybody who still has money and really ticked off a lot of people that don't understand what happened. Some people are upset with Fuel Cell Energy because they think they missed but they didn't miss anything somebody came up with numbers that were way out of whack. And two people did the same thing somebody came up with 20.43 million at a $0.17 loss and somebody else came up with 19.1 million at a $0.17 loss. in order to be around the $0.17 loss they would have had to be at least 35 million. I was saying that days before the numbers came out. But I thought once people listen to the conference call and the analyst asked questions people would understand this is a solid company getting ready to grow exponentially