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Steve,
Sorry to see you are in the red. :(
Check out EFA. I think we are close to support near 160.60.
W@G1 ~QQQQ 02/21/05 for a 02/23/05 Wed.close~
37.29 frenchee
37.09 quiet
35.93 nlightn
Just waiting for the 50-day SMA or 200-day SMA to be decisively taken out before I take a position.
Today's action tool some of the downside momentum away as the RSI and CMF are starting to turn. Is it a short-term countertrend rally starting or a pause before the 200-day SMA gets taken out?
Thanks...
I'm too late for Friday, but here's my WAG anyhow...37.14
OT: EFA is currently in buy mode. As long as it doesn't close 1% below its 21-day SMA, it's worth a look.
Thanks for the news FA...
OT: Diminishing Selling Pressure?
by Bob Colby
On Friday, stock indexes resumed their minor corrections, falling to nine day-lows. Breadth confirmed price, with 1317 advances trailing 2009 declines on the NYSE. Short-term momentum indicators remain moderately Bearish.
Volume on the NYSE declined to 1.45 billion shares, its lowest level in nearly a month, indicating diminishing selling pressure.
Signs of significant technical damage are lacking at this point. The current minor correction in the S&P 500 is nearly the same size as the mid-February correction, and it has already retraced nearly half of the gain from 2/22/05 to 3/7/05. So far at least, this correction can be considered a normal, average minor pullback within the context of recent and normal patterns.
When recent unfavorable trends in bonds, oil, commodities, and the dollar halt or reverse, the stock market has a chance to at least attempt to reestablish its uptrend. Short-term traders will no doubt be watching these eternal markets for clues in days ahead.
Longer-term stock price trends remain Bullish. Economic and corporate earnings news remains mostly encouraging, and the trend toward mergers and corporate stock buybacks has been fueling speculative optimism and adding liquidity and buying power to reinvestment money flows. World stock markets are still in Major Uptrends. These forces are supporting continuing uptrends in the longer-term time frames.
I'm looking for a tag of 36.86-36.52 next week. We are almost oversold on the daily 5-day RSI and NAMO is showing a positive divergence with price. QQQQ is testing its 200-day SMA--36.52. Its daily chart shows it trading near its 2005 low. After failing a couple of challanges of its 50-day SMA currently now at 37.78, I exited my long today at 37.65 since not being able to hold above this threshold is a bad sign if your position is long.
Once again I'm in waiting mode. Waiting for either the 50-day SMA or the 200-day SMA to be taken out before I take a position.
The Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index ($BPCOMPQ)is a market breadth indicator that's calculated by dividing the number of stocks in the Naz that are currently trading with point and figure buy signals, by the total number of stocks in the Naz. I use the $BPCOMPQ to give me a hint of the technical interpretation beteen QQQQ price action and market breadth. In the case today, price was down and the $BPCOMPQ was up indicating a positive divergence between price and the $BPCOMPQ. My technical intrepretation is the broader mid and small stocks are outperforming the Naz large caps and quite possibly the divergence will be resolved with the Naz large caps (QQQQ)playing catch up. This typically happens but not all the time. What's making things cloudy is the position of another market breadth indicator I follow with the symbol $NAMO. It's current reading is confirming the downside slide in price. The weight of the evidence suggests to me to be long as price is on the north side of QQQQ's 21-day SMA. Nevertheless, I've got my stops set at 1% below the 21-day SMA in case I'm out of allignment with the market.
Positive divergence between QQQQ price and the Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Indicator.
chichi2,
Does the negative divergence between QQQQ price and $NAMO concern you?
A risk area I spoted after the close tonight was a negative divergence between price and Nasdaq internals. See the below chart. Makes me wonder if the breakout is real...
Went long today at 37.97--break of the 50-day SMA. Put initial stop at 37.15. Hope there's some legs to this start...
Well put 4Godnwv...
Thanks FA, for your current opinion...
I'm keeping my stop at the 21-day SMA. Shouldn't have to give back too much of my gains...
FA,
Are you less than positive on EFA as well? Interested in your current opinion as I've been riding alot in my retirement plan on this EAFE ETF.
Thanks,
Thanks Gizmo!
Thanks for the URL Gizmo
Very good article bob3. Thanks for posting...
Gizmo,
Did you see Dow Theory Buy signal on Friday?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5639286
OT Dow Theorists smile after Friday rally
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:20 PM ET March 4, 2005
E-mail it / Print / Discuss / Alert / Reprint / RSS
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Dow Theorists are breathing easier after Friday's rally, in which both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average closed above previous recent closing highs set in late December.
The Dow Theory, of course, is the oldest market-timing system still in widespread use. Though its adherents do not always agree on all aspects of their interpretations, the Theory's general outline is clear enough: A bull market is confirmed when both the Dow industrials ($INDU: news, chart, profile) and the Dow transports ($TRAN: news, chart, profile) jointly reach significant new highs, while a bear market is signaled when both averages reach significant new lows.
Market turning points occur when the two averages trend in opposite directions -- "nonconfirmations," in Dow Theory parlance.
It was the potential for just such a nonconfirmation that had many Dow Theorists worried over the last couple of months. After hitting new 52-week closing highs in late December -- 10,854.54 for the DJIA and 3,811.62 for the DJTA -- both averages had declined significantly in the new year. And even though the DJIA rallied strongly in February to within shouting distance of its December peak, the DJTA remained far below its late-2004 level.
Many grew resigned to the possibility that even if the DJIA were to eclipse its late-December levels, the DJTA would not -- a potentially bearish development.
But Friday's rally was even stronger for the DJTA than for the DJIA, and now both averages are above their late-December levels.
Does this mean that Dow Theorists are unanimous in believing that happy days are here again?
The answer: yes, at least for the short term, according to the three investment newsletters I monitor that base their market timing on the Dow Theory: Dow Theory Letters, edited by Richard Russell; Dow Theory Forecasts, edited by Richard Moroney; and TheDowTheory.com, edited by Jack Schannep.
However, Russell remains bearish for the longer term. That's because, by his reading, the original Dow Theorists placed even more weight on valuations than they did on joint new highs among the primary Dow averages. And because the market remains overvalued according to any of a number of fundamental criteria, Russell believes that any bull market we are seeing now comes within the context of a secular bear market that will eventually take the market down to much lower levels.
But that could take many years to play itself out. In the meantime, and at least for the short term, the Dow Theorists are smiling.
W@G 1 38.13
give it a scan...only you can tell if it has value...
Which way will she break?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5623209
Good luck tarm!
I waiting for either the 50-day SMA or 200-day SMA to be broken before I take a position...
4Godnwv,
Interesting and insightful read. Thanks for sharing...
W@G 2 38.13
Gizmo,
Get ready for a short-term bounce in the TLT...
Closed long yesterday at 37. Hope it wasn't too soon...
4Godnwn,
Thanks for sharing. Makes me think there's hope for some of the misguided liberals...
OFC,
Good URLs--especially the "charts" one... Thanks!
QQQQ Update for 25 Feb
Keeping short on unless QQQQ will close on Friday greater than 38.08.
Major Trend
Relative Strength Rankings
Of Liquid Exchange Traded Funds by Robert Colby
Based on a new, updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength, I ranked the more actively traded ETFs (exchange traded funds) as of the posting date, above. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609.
Research studies show that ETFs ranked in the top fifth of the list (with a rank of 80 or higher) have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, ETFs ranked in the lower half, below 50, have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rank Name, Symbol
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
99 Brazil Index, EWZ
98 Austria Index, EWO
98 Latin Am 40, ILF
97 Energy SPDR, XLE
96 Energy DJ, IYE
95 South Korea Index, EWY
94 Mexico Index, EWW
94 Energy Global, IXC
93 Natural Resource, IGE
92 Emerging Markets, EEM
91 South Africa Index, EZA
91 Belgium Index, EWK
90 Spain Index, EWP
89 Australia Index, EWA
88 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
87 Italy Index, EWI
87 Netherlands Index, EWN
86 EMU Europe Index, EZU
85 Utilities SPDR, XLU
84 Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
83 Canada Index, EWC
83 Utilities DJ, IDU
82 France Index, EWQ
81 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
80 Materials SPDR, XLB
80 United Kingdom Index, EWU
79 S&P Europe 350 Index, IEV
78 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
77 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
76 Singapore Index, EWS
76 STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
75 Germany Index, EWG
74 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
73 EAFE Index, EFA
72 Sweden Index, EWD
72 S&P SmallCap 600, IJR
71 Russell Mid Cap, IWR
70 Powershares Dynamic, PWC
69 Mid-Cap VIPERs, VO
69 Switzerland Index, EWL
68 S&P MidCap 400/B Value, IJJ
67 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
66 Cohen & Steers Realty, ICF
65 S&P SmallCap 600/B Value, IJS
65 S&P MD 400 iS, IJH
64 MidCap SPDRs, MDY
63 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
62 Value 3000 Russell, IWW
61 REIT Wilshire, RWR
61 Growth BARRA MidCap 400, IJK
60 Growth Russell Midcap, IWP
59 Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
58 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
57 Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
57 Russell 2000 Value (Small), IWN
56 Rydex S&P Equal Weight, RSP
55 Powershares Dynamic OTC, PWO
54 Small Cap Value VIPERS, VBR
54 Global Financials, IXG
53 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
52 Value VIPERs, VTV
51 Telecommunications Global, IXP
50 S&P 500/BARRA Value, IVE
50 Russell 2000 Small Cap, IWM
49 Industrial SPDR, XLI
48 Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
47 Industrial DJ US, IYJ
46 Small Cap Growth VIPERs, VBK
46 Global 100, IOO
45 Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
44 Hong Kong Index, EWH
43 Taiwan Index, EWT
43 Vanguard Total VIPERs, VTI
42 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
41 Total Market DJ, IYY
40 Growth 2000 Russell, IWO
39 Russell 3000 (Cap W), IWV
39 Russell 1000 Big Cap, IWB
38 Fortune 500, FFF
37 S&P 500 SPDRs, SPY
36 S&P 500 iS, IVV
35 Japan Index, EWJ
35 Consumer D., XLY
34 Global Titans, DGT
33 S&P 1500 iS, ISI
32 Large Cap VIPERs, VV
31 Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
31 China 25 iS, FXI
30 TOPIX 150, ITF
29 Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
28 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
28 Software, IGV
27 Retail H, RTH
26 Consumer Staples, XLP
25 S&P 100, OEF
24 Healthcare DJ, IYH
24 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
23 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
22 Financial DJ US, IYF
21 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
20 Health Care, XLV
20 Malaysia Index, EWM
19 Healthcare Global, IXJ
18 Growth 3000 Russell, IWZ
17 Health Care VIPERs, VHT
17 Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
16 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
15 Financial SPDR, XLF
14 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
13 Growth VIPERs, VUG
13 Financial Services DJ, IYG
12 Fidelity Commonwealth, ONEQ
11 Bond, TIPS, TIP
10 Growth Large Cap, ELG
9 NASDAQ 100, QQQ
9 Bond, Corp, LQD
8 Bond Aggregate, AGG
7 Technology Global, IXN
6 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
6 Technology DJ US, IYW
5 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
4 Technology GS, IGM
3 Technology SPDR, XLK
2 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
2 Biotechnology, IBB
1 Semiconductor H, SMH
0 Networking, IGN
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
FA, thanks
Least was correct.
I use both the QQQQ and Profunds. QQQQ on my personal account and Profunds for my IRA.
QQQQ path of resistance appears to be down. Next target is 36.88.