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With all due respect all predictions made in this MB are pure speculation. If the markets would have believed there were impressive top line numbers, IMO the stock price would have a totally different share price. Truth is noone knows, and noone can't know, period.
Right, especially because if it is true that there's a long tail of about 25% of patients (and assuming they are all still alive, which is something that is actually unknown), then 83 patients are outside of the latest enrolling period. So Germany in the latest period must have a small fraction of the remaining patients alive anyway.
In the recent 10K the co. reports 15 months for median survival.
It confirms my theory once again.
"The surrogate endpoint, **if asked for and granted***, would, IMO, likely be an adjudicated PFS."
If asked for and granted? How many AA have you seen without a s.e.?
Abjudicated PFS is a speculation (or you can call it a dreaming hypothesis again) that came only on this message board. There's no public release as far as I know that talks about a possible adjudicated PFS going on, and I bet you are well aware of this.
I disagree.
Anyhow we are talking about dreaming hypothesis.
What would the surrogate endpoint be in order to have AA?
I understand you think it that way, but experience tells me I am right.
NW IMO would not put a single $ right now in the co. for multiple reasons.
P.S. You probably meant accelerated approval, not advanced approval. I wonder where you think the surrogate endpoint will come from at this point, where anything still stands blinded.
I disagree, IMO there's no money right now even to start any form of commercialization, that's why I believe there's only one priority right now, and that stands before anything, science (and anything surrounding it) included. But I believe management knows this extremely well.
To me it would have zero to little effect on the share price. Right now the investment community is IMO 100% concentrated on cash. So IMO funding/LTD/partnerships with upfront payments is the only thing that would move the stock price in the short term.
As pointed out many times, IMO right now cash is much more important than anything (even the science!), so if the co. could somehow scoop up 35-50M of financing / fresh funds (say they sell the Swatson property and are able to finalize some commercialization agreement worldwide), there would be nothing that could stop it from going immediately to more decent SP levels (I would imagine a range on between 0.7-1). From that on is all of a different story, as many warrants would be exercised and the co. would finally have all of the money to finish the PIII trial and start all PII trials and could also finally go back to Nasdaq (unfortunately this would IMO require a R/S)
Management/BOD members are not supposed to be lenders of last resort. However, if they act like that, pushing further any possible and IMO totally unwelcomed dilution, it would surely be of help for the stock price and current investors' sentiment. The problem is that I don't know if they are willing and financially capable to support next 8M payments, that's why the hope for any other forms of financing, as discussed before.
That's correct. That's what I pointed out even some posts ago. There are some markets that are simply of little interest for US based companies, and thus they could find a partner for commercialization agreement with ease, tipically in Japan (where the NRM could bring to market innovative drug that have shown safe and probable efficacy in PII), but also in India and China. Moreover the production and commercialization would not be too much of a problem since many giant companies are expanding their field into building immunotherapy production sites, least but not last the same Hitachi which recently bought the remaining stake of PCT from CLBS and will thus have a strong footprint not only in the US, but also in the Asian markets (PCT already had some operations/offices running in Japan).
The problem is that tipically these are quite small markets, thus what one could get in any form of upfront payment would be quite low, but still better than any other form of dilution. Many US and abroad companies pursed the Asian way in the last years in order to squeeze out some much useful money, as for instance (if memory still serves me right at my age...) AEZS and ATHX.
Good points. What if they could sell the property to Cognate itself and then having an option to lease part of the space for own production if and ever needed? That way they could repay their debt to Cognate and still have money to run all of the PII trials.
A lease-back doesn't give up anything, but I appreciate your optimism anyway.
I don't care if that exact property would be available for buyback (besides the fact that they could probably arrange a lease-back right now with similar effects). No I don't know when PIII readout will be nor anyone does, I know cash right now is IMO much more important than any other thing and IMO they have to put anything in place to have a decent cash injection quickly, in any possible way.
I couldn't care less about your m.m., as long as you made a question and makes sense I politely replied.
First of all, I have a totally different concept of "very soon". Very soon would be when the trial had positive PIII results out and they were strong enough to support a very successful application to the FDA. If the above will ever come true and they (hopefully) will decide to partner for commercialization, they could use upfront partnership milestones (if ever) to buy back a property for that purpose.
With that money they could perhaps fund all the PII trials and have a cushion in case the PIII results aren't good enough.
Right now, with that money in the balance sheet, the share price would be IMO in a totally different level, and would reverse market sentiment for quite a long time (and IMO enough for PIII readout). Moreover that move would have a immediate effect to the share price so that many warrants would be exercised, easing again the stock price in backward spiral from the one investors have experienced.
Bullish sentiment? IMO selling the property right now even for the same amount paid at that time would be bullish IMO at current market conditions where you still don't have PIII results and you seem to need cash to fund operations, trials, and repay the notes.
Sorry but financial markets don't work like that. There are not trains nor poker players, these are only in dreaming investors who always think something good will arrive no matter what and that when a stock declines there are always shorts behind it.
There might have been some people shorting, other simply selling, and however you want to look at it, they all had their reasons to do so, in a way they felt the share would have gone down and there were no possible short term news that could reverse it, and in my opinion they were unfortunately absolutely right to think so.
I have not personally seen, since many many months, any news that I believe is meaningful. No partnership with upfront payments. No LTD consistent financing that could have eased the cash reserves for some time. No meaningful (as far as I think) news from any of the current ongoing trials. In the meanwhile I have experienced a voluntarily delisting (which I found very unusual) and 2 recent raises by issuing shares that diluted the co. in a way that probably even the most pessimistic investor wouldn't have thought of.
How can't you agree with many of the concerns that Kab expressed?
Unless some news come from other means, like:
- financing (Swatson sale/lease-back);
- other LTD financing;
- sales of part of IPs or partnerships;
- commercialization agreements.
Othernot I unfortunately agree with you.
It seems old from 2016, but IMO if they are able to sell it or lease-back it, it would be a major boost for the finances. Imagine if they are able to pull out 35M from the sale of it right away, that would be extremely beneficial right now to the stock price.
But if they could quickly line up a partner for commercialization in Europe (which IMO doesn't represent the market of choice), with some upfront payment right away, that would be awesome.
I don't know and I am not discussing what others tried to 'cherry pick'. I am only saying that, as was discussed in here, I don't think at all that the chart you are referring to implies that.
Scary scenario, but somehow IMO you could be right. One thing is for sure, I haven't seen any partnership with upfront payments, and that usually IMO spirals to toxic financing.
I doubt it, since most likely they would have showed up way before.
I haven't seen any document that did state or could infer that all of the placebos died or progressed and went on Dcvax and that, to my knowledge isn't even true at all. Where did you get this info you are supporting?
That's why I am talking about selling some IP rights of that trial in exchange for much needed cash.
No matter how you see it, IMO without some news about partnering and/or some serious financing, I personally doubt the stock will head up. I wonder when they will finally complete the details of the PII combo trial with BMS for which a clinical trial is already scheduled on clinicaltrials.gov.
It doesn't make sense.
Lol, give it up.
Dilution at these prices would have meant IMO a real strong short selling which would have put the co. in front of toxic financing 100%.
I would't be so pessimistic and your inferences might be completely wrong. They simply might have scheduled their expenditures for the next months and perhaps simply preferred to put in some money than having to dilute at these prices. The notes says nothing about their current cash reserves, by themselves. I am not always optimistic on many aspects, but trying to find at all cost negativs on this move is IMO totally wrong.
Any investor in this board should at least understand IMO that the BOD might be in a lock up period which would prevent them to buy any share, since at this point they might have privileged info (as for trial developments and/or possible partnerships). So why always trying to find a negative aspect on everything? This notes are just fine, for all of the reasons already discussed. Period.
So what? Obviously given the relationships it is much better to have notes from people involved and interested in the survival of the company, than from third parties who could have wanted a debt for equity swap either in or out any Ch. 11 procedure. No matter how you see it, this loan is good news.
Perhaps the idea of this (and possibly other) financings was already growing when they decided to repay the notes in instalments, and were just trying to figure out the terms.
I tend to agree with you a lot with this. It gives a bit of more confidence and hope.
I don't know about being the bottom or not, but having a pool of "lenders of last resort" in order to prevent a potential worrysome and huge dilution, surely helps. If the shorts were speculating and indeed trying to force a death spiral on a possibile cash crunch, well, then this helps. The hope is that they can arrange similar actions with friendly money even for some of the very next payments. That will give investors more confidence, more stability to the stock price, and less short attacks, while going forward to PIII unblind and results.
Doesn't make sense, IMO. The date is the 19 and they have to had the idea in place for some time before. I obviously agree it's good news, but all other conjectures seem dreams to me.
Wow, huge money in!
Sure, and then the stock price went to...what did that poster write? 70 to 80...oh no, maybe it was already down to a 12-30 range, but I feel another adjustment in the range will come very shortly. This kind of dilution? I might be fine with a 250M O/S stock, but if you dilute at very low levels, self-fulfilling expectations will crush it, as it happened yesterday.
So you mean the study is not blinded? The study doesn't count the number of events itself (that is only important in order to know how many events you have to count on before assessing the mPFS), but the median months of the event from baseline.
Statistically yes, it could be that there were more PFS events on a percentage basis in the DCVAX L arm vs placebo arm, simply because there are double the patients in the treatment arm compared to placebo arm. You found out nothing new on this, it's statistics! But this has nothing to do with when this observation from basiline has been done, so it has nothing do to with what the mPFS in the two arms could be.
Moreover how could they ever withold such an information?
Come on, what are you talking about?!?