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Nice work FijiTrader!
That would be 125-160 bars per store per week (or 18-23 per day per store). Can we sell that many? It would be interesting if we could find some numbers for other bars and see how well they sell at Walgreens, etc. I watch how Clif Bars sell at Wal-mart since I buy several boxes a week (6 per box) and I'm pretty sure they don't sell 20-30 boxes per week. Probably more like 6-10/wk (or 36-60 bars) at under a buck a pop. I was using 6 bars a day per store when I was playing with some numbers. That would still be nearly 750K in revs just from those 200 Walgreens. I guess we'll find out eventually. Thanks for crunching the numbers!
The numbers work and the math is solid from a quick check. Looks like you are using about a 20% net profit per par. If we can truly expand to all of Walgreens and expand into other national chains, those numbers are certainly possible. I'll wait and see how we do in our smaller markets first and see how they sell and how people like the products. Could be fun.
The potential is there. Thanks for the response.
Let's hope this is a big winner moving forward for
all of us!
I remember back on 12/4 (post 1621) when you said there was significant reason that we'd be at .15 to .25 in the short term (in the next 30-60 days). I just think those kinds of posts lead to high expectations that are rarely met. Obviously, we just wallowed around .02 for the entire time. I do think we have some potential moving forward but it's not going to happen overnight and I doubt in the next few months. It will take a few Q's imo to see our growth and confirm more of how our products are selling. If you're basing your calculations on 200M than you must be expecting some massive sales numbers asap. Since I like to do "simple" eps/pe calculations, I'll run what I think it would take to get your .20 number.
Net Profit/O/S (future) = EPS x PE = PPS
2M/200M = .01 eps x 20PE = .20
That's a lot of net profit. How much product would we have to sell to generate 2M in net profit? 10-20M in revenue (10-20% net profit margin)? Assuming we get our 1M acquisition and sell reasonable numbers of our product, what would be a more reasonable sales number over the next 12 months? 1-3M?
Let's say we're up to 150M O/S by the middle of the year and the stock looks forward 6 months. Let's just say we somehow get 3M in sales over the next 12 months with a generous 20% net margin. That would be 600K in net profit. Is 3M too generous over the next 12 months? Probably/maybe but still possible with a 1M acquisition and sales at 300+? stores in 2010.
600K/150M = .004 eps x 20-1PE = .08 pps.
I'd be ecstatic to see us at .08 in 12 months. That's a 300% return in 12 months. If some expect .15 to .25 at any time or .50 or even dollars, have at it. I have more reasonable expectations based on our SS and reasonable sales numbers. If we use 2M in sales with a 20% net margin and a 20PE and 150M O/S we still get a nickel in 12 months. Very nice 150% return. Anything beyond that is fine with me. It is pennyland though and expectations can get out of hand which would be fine with me too! GL!
And management would not give approval to Clear Trust to give me the SS when I called. So why not pick a TA that would freely give the information out? We've been adding shares at the rate of 2M per week since March. (47M in March to 125M on 1/25). It would be nice to keep up on this on more than a quarterly basis. It can't keep going up this much.
It's been a great ride Kurt! Thanks for all the memories!!!
Warner lauded at end of storybook NFL career
By BOB BAUM, AP Sports Writer
TEMPE, Ariz. (AP)—Kurt Warner(notes) left the NFL on his terms, knowing he could still play at the highest level.
His announced retirement from the game has been met with widespread recognition of a potential Hall of Famer who found success the hard way—first early with the St. Louis Rams, then at the end with the Arizona Cardinals.
The 38-year-old quarterback left thanking God, his family and the teams and coaches that gave him a chance in a 12-year career that saw him benched at least four times only to finish as a prolific winner.
Those who had been a part of his remarkable journey through the league praised him as much for his conduct off the field as his considerable accomplishments on it.
“I have had the privilege to watch and compete against Kurt for the last 12 years, beginning in 1998 in NFL Europe,” Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo said. “I have always admired Kurt for his athletic talents, but more so for what he stood for. His faith in Christ and his character as a man are tremendous examples to all of us.”
Fellow players spoke their admiration for the quarterback who had to work his way from stocking grocery shelves to the Arena Football League and NFL Europe before getting an opportunity in St. Louis only because Trent Green(notes) was injured.
“A great player and a great person,” Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers(notes) said. “… The way he handled himself and carried himself and what he does off the field is as much a part of who he is as a football player. That’s the highest complement you can give Kurt—he’s as good or better as a person than he is as a player, and he’s a heck of a player.”
A man of deep faith who carried a Bible to each postgame news conference, Warned walked away with a year left on a two-year, $23 million contract, knowing he still had the skills to play at the highest level.
“It’s been an amazing ride,” Warner said. “I don’t think I could have dreamt it would have played out like it has, but I’ve been humbled every day that I woke up the last 12 years and amazed that God would choose to use me to do what he’s given me the opportunity to do.”
Warner had one of the greatest postseason performances ever in Arizona’s 51-45 overtime wild card victory over Green Bay on Jan. 10, with more touchdown passes (five) than he had incompletions (four) but sustained a brutal hit in the Cardinals’ 45-14 divisional round loss at New Orleans six days later.
The Cardinals signed Warner to a one-year contract in 2005 largely because no other team would give him a chance to be a starter. His opportunities over the next two years were scattered and even when coach Ken Whisenhunt took over in 2007, Warner was the backup to Matt Leinart(notes).
But when Leinart went down with an injury five games into the season, Warner got his chance. He started 48 of the remaining 49 games of his career.
Blessed with an uncanny throwing accuracy and a knack for reading defenses, Warner leaves the game with three Super Bowl appearances, two league MVP awards and a Super Bowl MVP nod. He has the three best Super Bowl performances in terms of yards passing.
In a comparison with the 14 quarterbacks to make the Hall of Fame in the last 25 years, Warner has a better career completion percentage, yards per pass attempt and yards per game. Only Dan Marino, Brett Favre(notes) and Peyton Manning(notes) have more career 300-yard passing games.
In 124 regular-season games, Warner completed 65.5 percent of his passes for 32,344 yards and 208 touchdowns. He and Fran Tarkenton are the only NFL quarterbacks to throw for 100 touchdowns and 14,000 yards for two teams.
But there is much more to Warner, as accommodating a player to the media as the NFL has known.
Warner and his wife operate the First Things First Christian charitable foundation. Last year, he was named the NFL’s Man of the Year for his off-field and on-field accomplishments.
Cardinals general manager Rod Graves called it an emotional day “because I realize once again how extraordinary he was.”
“I’ve only had the privilege of being around one other person that I can say was close to him and that was Walter Payton,” Graves said. “I think when you have an extraordinary player and one who is just as extraordinary off the field, then you realize you were in the presence of someone special.”
Whisenhunt said Warner ranked “at the top” of players he had coached.
“He’s one of the best quarterbacks in this league,” he said, “and I think it’s well noted that he’s one of the best people I’ve been around.”
Warner brought his wife, Brenda, and their seven children to the podium, hugging each one of them. He choked up as he thanked them.
He was 28 when he finally got his big chance with the Rams in 1999.
What followed was a masterful and wholly unexpected season, when he led the Rams to a 13-3 regular-season record, then a Super Bowl triumph over Tennessee. He was the league and Super Bowl MVP.
Warner had the Rams back in the big game in 2001, where “The Greatest Show on Turf” lost a squeaker to New England. That season he earned his second MVP.
But after an injury-plagued 2002 season, he was sacked six times and suffered a concussion in a 2003 season-opening loss to the New York Giants. He never started for St. Louis again.
He signed a free agent contract with the Giants for 2004, but was replaced by rookie Eli Manning(notes) after nine games. Warner came to the Cardinals in 2005 and was an off-and-on starter before replacing the injured Leinart part way through the 2007 season.
Now, he said, he plans to spend time watching his children grow up, do some preaching and perhaps get into football broadcasting.
Warner knows what he wants his legacy to be.
“It’s not the way I threw the football, it’s not particular games that I won, but that they remember that here’s a guy that believed, that worked hard,” he said. “Although things didn’t always go in his favor, he continued to press through, and with his faith in himself and his faith in God, he was able to accomplish great things.”
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=Atlaic6RLsN.Ysl5BGC3ggM5nYcB?slug=ap-cardinals-warner&prov=ap&type=lgns
FRHV: Pros and Cons
Pros:
They are getting their product in at least a few stores that we know of.
If the products are good, we could have a winner long term.
Products are fairly simple and should be easy to manufacture and distribute.
If we believe the PR's, we're getting into Walgreens asap along with a discount store chain in Ohio (67 stores I believe) and a few others.
Cons:
SS (125M O/S is a lot for a small startup)
Rapidly expanding SS (47M in March to 125M on 1/25/10)
Gagged TA (again)
No IR
Slow response from management
No easy way for customers that have online order problems/questions.
Ordering webpages have errors and incomplete pages
Share price is already forward looking as they have limited revs right now and no profit.
Website has in accuracies and is sorely outdated (for example: their Organic Trade Association membership expired in 2008 yet they still say on their website that they are active members).
Very few have tried the products (are they any good?)
Bottom Line:
.02 is overvalued right now but it's a reasonable gamble due to recent distribution developments. Downside is probably limited while long term (1-2 years) potential is very high if the products are good.
The FRHV board is pretty useless for active DD. I wish we had a few more active DD'ers to track down some important facts.
I would not put a lot of money in this but a small stake (1 to 5% of your penny money) would be fine.
GL!
I think everyone is happy here. I'll just continue on with my own DD.
It's called discussion and investing. I'm sorry if everyone is perfectly happy with their investment here. There is very little DD going on around here. Everyone I guess is just perfectly content.
I'm very concerned about the SS. It's gone from 47M in March to at least 125M now. I don't want to have to call the CEO to get an updated count. It appears they've set it up with the TA to not give it out without management approval. Keeping track on the SS is tantamount for me and many others.
We should also have a way to contact the company with questions. It is a public company after all. And besides, they are selling their products online. People that have ordered online and have a problem should have a way to get a prompt response to check on orders. If they're not prepared to sell online then they shouldn't be doing it. Otherwise, they've got to be able to handle the customer load.
I don't agree with the analogy of gambling on fully reporting stocks. Pinks yet but not as much with OTCBBs and up. That exactly why I don't invest in pinks anymore. I want to be able to keep up with the filings, SS, etc. I don't just throw my money at any old stock and hope it pays off. I only have a small amount invested here compared to some of the massive amounts some claim but maybe that's why the tension is so high. I enjoy investing at this level and doing lots of DD.
Of course his purchases were rather small but I agree and that's why I recently added a few more shares.
As a shareholder, I just like to dig into my companies and make sure they're worth my money. There are things I like here and things I don't. Right now my biggest beef is trying to get management to respond to my e-mails or phone calls. The other is the SS and transparency (or lack thereof) with the new TA. All the business we appear to be gaining sounds great. Until I see more ground truth and eventually Q's, I'll remain cautiously optimistic. I'll continue to dig around and see what I can find as time allows. I've already counted the 1M acquisition into my figures. I'm counting on it to close and everything to go smoothly. If not, we may take a hit.
This board is for the discussion of FRHV. Good and bad. Not about individual posters. Sorry if you don't like my input but that's the way it is. When I like something I'll say (and have) when I don't I will. Period!
I like to see companies get their filings in on time. No excuses. It just adds to the uncertainty.
Last year it took until 2/24. Hopefully it won't be that long. Not sure this 10K will show much yet anyways but still anxious to review it. I believe they have 15 calendar days after the original due date to get the 10K in. That would be Feb 19th or Feb 22nd most likely.
As expected they just filed their notification of late filing for the 10K
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=7011427-1066-5887&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=678428&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fcik%253d1331612
Auditors were late I guess. They haven't filed on on time yet.
Here's another item that bothers me from the online storefront. The product list page is blank and the storefront page only shows the bars and coffee. You have to use the search function to find the salsa and olive oil. I don't see the chips anywhere. Anyone else want to play with the online site and see what they see? I'm going to e-mail the company and see if we can get some of that fixed.
Assuming their product is good I believe we will all make some money here going forward. That's another reason I'm trying to get some orders in so I can try the products. Are their bars any good? I don't know. Never tried one. How about the salsa? chips, coffee? olive oil? Don't know. Anyone else???
As long as they continue to expand and follow through on their business plan (and have a good product), we'll hopefully see some nice Q's upcoming. I just don't expect an explosion anytime soon. Anything is possible though. Unexpected acquisition or huge contract with ???. That's the fun part. Let's hope we all make a 10 bagger or more with time. For those that missed out on the first 10 bagger.
I tend to agree with you. I think the risk is fairly low from where we stand. We could see a temporary setback at some point but overall I agree that the trend should be up with time.
That's why I'm still willing to accumulate some more shares. I'd like them to be more transparent with the SS. You still can't get the SS from our new TA. That bothers me. And it's been two weeks since I ordered some bars online. Nothing yet. No response from FRHV on that issue yet either.
I agree we have some nice potential going forward but we have a few issues to clear up in the short term imo.
I asked the other day if anyone else has ordered items online and I got no response. I'll ask again. Has anyone ordered anything online or even bought some Wings of Nature product at a store? I know someone mentioned that they did a while back.
I'd like to get some real discussion going here and not just rah rah rah. This won't go up just because we want it to. For what it's worth, I haven't sold a share yet and I'm thinking about adding a little more for the long haul. I just don't expect a big pop in the near future like some of you. I'd be very happy to see this at a nickel at this time next year. More than that would be awesome.
They're great too! Whatever has the fundamentals going forward to support a nice price increase. I don't see it here. Plain and simple. Last post but GL over here!
If anyone wants to come over here and defend BGEM, please feel free to do that but come with facts and solid DD. Defend why you think BGEM is worth more than .23! That's why I put this board together a long time ago. Most I-hubbers get so caught up in their stocks they forget to do some simple math. Fundamentals will always win out in fully reporting companies in the long run.
I just like fundamentals!
It's ok. Take care and good luck over here.
That's why I don't invest in companies that aren't making money or will be very soon (like FRHV). I still believe fundamentals drive fully reporting companies in the long run. You certainly see pops on major news but then eventually fundamentals come back into play. Small players can't sustain these runs.
I wouldn't be in FRHV if I didn't think this had some potential over the next 12-24 months. I'm not much into trading. I like investing. I'll probably sell half at a double and hold free shares for a while. When will that double come from here? It might be a while but that's fine.
Some may expect another 500-1000% run-up at anytime. I don't. 99.9% of these boards have everyone pumping every day that the big run is coming, I hope I can get in before it jumps, the float is almost gone, big news coming, and so on. You can come back to these same boards months and even years later and nothing has happened. It gets ridiculous. FRHV has a chance to be a nice ROI. It already has been for some that got in at .002. I got in around .02. We'll see what happens. GL!
FRHV just sent out a PR to use BGEM to distribute their products in Florida. That led me to look at BGEM as an investment. First I wanted to see what kind of revs they had been doing. Nothing! They haven't made a dime. They just converted from a mining company to a beverage distribution company. Looks like they'll have revs coming in in the next Q though. Is there any investment potential in BGEM attm? Not that I see. They are currently trading at .23/.24 with no revs and 107M outstanding shares. The industry average PE is 28.6 per a report that was done on BGEM so they need to make nearly a penny in eps to justify their current price. They are forecast to lose 560K this year, make 760K in 2011 and finally 2.7M in 2012 when there will actually be some return on investment potential. I have no idea why BGEM is trading above a penny right now. Totally ridiculous! FRHV may be a little overvalued right now but at least it's selling product and has a lot going on right now (and it's only .02). BGEM is .23! Crazy!
Democrats once again push this through before Scott Brown got seated. 14.3T are you kidding me? This can not continue!
Senate permits gov't to borrow an additional $1.9T
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9DGSHEO0&show_article=1
What a great moment in history that election was last week! Whew!!!
Obamacare on 'Life Support' as Dems Turn to Jobs, Not Healthcare
http://newsmax.com/Headline/obama-healthcare-pelosi-reid/2010/01/28/id/348356
Do you have some calculations to support your .12 pps? With 125M shares outstanding, it's going to take a lot of net earnings to support that imo. We'd probably need to have revenues between 2.5 and 5M with a net profit of at least 500K or more to support that kind of price.
Let's just say we made 500K in NET profit (say 5M in revs with a 10 percent profit margin) over the next 12 months and that the SS didn't balloon anymore. I'll use a very optimistic 30-1 PE ratio.
500K/125M = .004 eps x 30PE = .12 pps.
I think those kinds of numbers are possible down the road but we need to see a few quarters of steady growth to see how much product we're really selling. We sold a whopping 26K in the past 2 quarters.
The 10K is supposed to be out possibly today based on last year but then FRHV filed a late extension and it didn't show up until 2/24 last year. That will begin to give us a little clue into our sales but most of these bigger deals won't show up for another quarter or two.
Very interesting report. Not sure about some of their calculations but I'll stick with their PE or P/B ratios. Since they use a 28.6PE ratio for the industry average I'll use that. Looking at Price to Book, it starts around 15 and finally drops near 1 by 2014. So no bargain their (and that's based on current price). How about by PE standards.
In 2010, BGEM is forecast to lose 560K according to the report so no PE value there yet.
In 2011, BGEM is forecast to make 736K. So 736K/107M = .006 eps x PE of 28.6 = .196 pps. (close to where we're at now).
In 2012, BGEM is forecast to make 2.7M. So 2.7M/107M = .025 eps x 28.6 PE = .72 pps.
And then into dollar land in 2013 and beyond based on PE calculations and Grass Root's numbers.
That's assuming the SS remains unchanged which I assume will not be the case. I believe Grass Roots used 120M O/S which is probably a better hedge which would lower my numbers. By 2012 it would be 2.7M/120M = .022 x 28.6 = .645 pps.
So great potential down the road but for me, I don't see it in the next year or so unless they blow away these Grass Roots numbers.
Curious as to what kind of revenues some of you are expecting in the next 12 months. Since I was drawn over here from FRHV, I'm interested what the buzz is here. My concern is always fundamentals. With at least 107M shares outstanding and a share price of .23, we have a lot built into this already.
Here's a few numbers I ran to support the current pps:
net profit/O/S = eps x PE of choice
2.46M/107M = .023 x 10-1PE = .23
1.23M/107M = .0115 x 20-1PE = .23
So the share price already has at least 1-2 million of net profit built into the share price imo. What kind of revenues will BGEM need to do in the next 12 months just to support that kind of current price? 10-20M? based on a 10-20% net profit margin. Where's the upside? Or are some expecting much bigger revenues like 50-100M or more? TIA!
Sounds like it could be interesting on both fronts.
Oh I see. BGEM was first a mineral exploration company and just recently (October) switched to a beverage distribution company. More DD is required I guess. Its never simple with pennies.
I believe this is on topic so I'll ask it here. I've skimmed the BGEM board and it looks like most of the action started in December. Up until then they had no revenue, correct? I assume the next Q will show revenue from what I've skimmed quickly of the board and PR's? I assume also that you're very positive on BGEM and think everything is on the up and up with them? Which would be positive for FRHV moving forward.
Q's are always unaudited. My point was that this
company has never had any revenues through 11/30/2009.
I showed you the link to the last Q that just came out
last week and your link from the previous Q shows the same.
No revenue. It sounds like they've had a lot shaking since December
but nothing through November. Maybe our resident BGEM expert can give us a quick low-down on BGEM.
So BGEM will distribute our products in Florida. What's up with BGEM? According to the SEC filings, they've never made a dime and the have 0 cash as of the last Q. But then BGEM will be merging with Title Beverage Distribution Inc.(binding LOI already done), soon according to the latest filing. Although on the Title website it says they are already a subsidiary of BGEM. More questions than answers once again. And hey BGEM get Terrell Owens who endorses Title Sports Drinks.
Anyone else find anything interesting?
It very well could go higher on speculation and momentum. I'm just a fundamentals type person that likes to buy undervalued plays. I have to use our estimate of 89M O/S to do valuation calculations. GL!
Right. That's why I included the 7M figure in my calculations which includes the expected strategic acquisitions.
Just a numbers post:
Assuming this will become Monkey Rock and assuming they hit their 7M in revs over the next year (which would seem too soon imo), aren't we already fully valued? What's the average restaurant net profit margin? 4-7% on average?
Let's use 7%. 7% of 7M = 490K in net profit.
490K/89M O/S = .0055 eps x 10PE = .055 20-1PE would yield .11 pps.
I'm not sure where the upside is. Thoughts?