Saturday, January 30, 2010 5:23:31 PM
Net Profit/O/S (future) = EPS x PE = PPS
2M/200M = .01 eps x 20PE = .20
That's a lot of net profit. How much product would we have to sell to generate 2M in net profit? 10-20M in revenue (10-20% net profit margin)? Assuming we get our 1M acquisition and sell reasonable numbers of our product, what would be a more reasonable sales number over the next 12 months? 1-3M?
Let's say we're up to 150M O/S by the middle of the year and the stock looks forward 6 months. Let's just say we somehow get 3M in sales over the next 12 months with a generous 20% net margin. That would be 600K in net profit. Is 3M too generous over the next 12 months? Probably/maybe but still possible with a 1M acquisition and sales at 300+? stores in 2010.
600K/150M = .004 eps x 20-1PE = .08 pps.
I'd be ecstatic to see us at .08 in 12 months. That's a 300% return in 12 months. If some expect .15 to .25 at any time or .50 or even dollars, have at it. I have more reasonable expectations based on our SS and reasonable sales numbers. If we use 2M in sales with a 20% net margin and a 20PE and 150M O/S we still get a nickel in 12 months. Very nice 150% return. Anything beyond that is fine with me. It is pennyland though and expectations can get out of hand which would be fine with me too! GL!
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