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ELTK +.99 to 10.38, another 4 year high ! Sure wish that I had loaded up in the high $4's after that great Q1 earnings report just 3 weeks ago. The upward momentum has been relentless since then.
Nice call on GERN, but what if the FDA does NOT approve imetelstat ? The stock will drop like a rock. Are you sure it will get approved ? Will you be taking some profits ahead of the decision ?
Thanks, interesting. TDA sure was slow and stingy in redeeming customer funds. I'd hate to have a lot of cash locked up for months like that !
Strong market, but very imbalanced .... the S&P Equal Weight Index was down YTD as of yesterday. The rally has been highly concentrated in the megacaps and tech stocks. Maybe the small and microcaps will finally outperform going forward ?
YTD Indexes -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$NYFANG 64% 7313.86 4448.07
$NDX 32% 14441.51 10939.76
$COMP 25% 13100.98 10466.48
$RLG 22% 2626.44 2158.19
$SPX 10% 4221.02 3839.5
$DJT 4% 13880.17 13391.91
$RUT 0% 1767.94 1761.25
$BTK 0% 5284.44 5281.1
$IXBT 0% 0 0
$W5KMICRO0% 12668.7 12683.47
$MID 0% 2426.25 2430.38
$DJI 0% 33061.57 33147.25
$SPXEW -1% 5700.53 5739.53
$RLV -2% 1472.12 1497.12
$SML -2% 1135.58 1157.53
$NBITR -3% 4351.46 4474.26
$NBI -3% 4082.7 4213.13
$RUMIC -4% 654.64 678.57
$DJU -8% 890.84 967.4
M +1.16 to 14.91, up nearly 30% from yesterday's pre-market low .... wish I had backed up the truck on that brief spike down to the mid $11's and not written any covered calls ! Hindsight perfect as usual.
Why did TDA freeze all of your money in the fund if they said it was worth at least 93% of face value ??? Why not hand out 80% or more immediately ?
INMD +.55 to 32.12, I joined you with a starter position today and placed a few GTC orders at lower prices .... the risk/reward ratio looks favorable at this price level.
M - fwiw, I just sold the June 16th $14 calls for $0.26 .....
M - I'm holding for now, but might write some covered calls although the premiums are not very attractive. At the very least M should be a good trader in the coming weeks and months as it trades at depressed levels.
M -.15 to 13.44, bouncing back nicely from the pre-market low of 11.52 .... I was at my desk when the earnings report hit the wires and bought at 11.89 avg on the spike down .... had limit orders in the low $11's that didn't get filled.
As I posted before, with the stock down over 50% in a few months, lots of bad news was already fully priced in .... based on the action, that appears to be the case.
M - I bought shares at $11.89 average in premarket ..... the last time it was this cheap was early in 2021 when they were losing money and analysts were expecting EPS of around $0.70 for the year. The guidance cut to EPS of $2.95 midpoint should come as no surprise with the stock down over 50% the past few months - and it's macro related. Did you really expect them to maintain guidance ? Brick and mortar retail is in long term decline, but M is oversold and I'll be accumulating at these and lower prices. jmho
M -1.00 to 12.59 in pre-market after cutting guidance, but I think the selloff from $25 early this year is overdone and picked up a few shares.
briefing -
Macy's beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus (13.59 ) :
Reports Q1 (Apr) earnings of $0.56 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.11 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.45; revenues fell 6.8% year/year to $4.98 bln vs the $5.01 bln FactSet Consensus.
Comparable sales down 7.9% on an owned basis and down 7.2% on an owned-plus-licensed basis
Co issues downside guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $2.70-3.20 vs. $3.71 FactSet Consensus; sees FY24 revs of $22.8-23.2 bln vs. $24.01 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co sees FY23 Comparable owned-plus-licensed sales change (52 week basis) down 7.5% to down 6% versus 2022 compared to previous guidance of down 4% to down 2% versus 2022
The company's updated earnings guidance also includes the benefit of an incremental $200 million of cost savings identified as part of ongoing expense management that is expected to impact both gross margin and SG&A expense.
M -.63 to 13.48, a lot of bad news is fully priced in with the stock hitting 2 year lows .... there's lots of speculation and volume in the options market about tomorrow morning's earnings report. It's tempting but I think I'll wait to see the report before buying.
The entire retail sector has been weak the past few months on recession concerns. XRT, the S&P retail spider has been hit hard.
M -.23 to 14.11, Macy's stock has gotten very cheap, trading at under 4x Jan FY24 estimates and yielding 4.7% .... just a few months ago the stock was at $25. They report Apr Q1 earnings Thursday morning. Maybe bad news has leaked out ? I'll be interested in seeing the numbers and added the stock to my watchlist.
BOIL -.23 to 2.69, after hitting a new all time low of 2.61 .... the contango in the NG futures market is really dragging down BOIL, along with its usual ongoing volatility related decay that occurs even without contango.
NVDA - so would I, LOL.
NVDA is up 100x in the past decade. That's 10,000%. Call option buyers who laddered both strikes and expirations, rolling them over regularly did far better.
F +.82 to 12.20 on the Tesla charger alliance news .... good news for Ford EV owners !
NVDA +74 to 379, I dipped my toe in today, bought shares at 383 and sold June 9th 390 calls at 14 for a cost basis of 369. I plan to hedge and trade the position rather than just hold since I think it will be range bound for the coming few months at least.
I regret not buying shares when they bottomed near $100 last October after the massive correction it had the prior 11 months, falling from around $350. A huge mistake in hindsight !
F - Ford and Tesla announce charger agreement -
Ford Motor Company said today it reached an agreement with Tesla Motors that will provide Ford electric vehicle customers access to more than 12,000 Tesla Superchargers across the U.S. and Canada, doubling the number of fast-chargers available to Ford EV customers starting Spring 2024.
“This is great news for our customers who will have unprecedented access to the largest network of fast-chargers in the U.S. and Canada with 12,000+ Tesla Superchargers plus 10,000+ fast-chargers already in the BlueOval Charge Network,” said Jim Farley, Ford president and CEO. “Widespread access to fast-charging is absolutely vital to our growth as an EV brand, and this breakthrough agreement comes as we are ramping up production of our popular Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning, and preparing to launch a series of next-generation EVs starting in 2025.”
Added Rebecca Tinucci, Tesla’s senior director of charging infrastructure: “We’ve spent the last 10 years building an industry-leading Charging Network that enables freedom to travel and provides charging confidence for our Tesla owners. We’re excited to deliver on our mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy by welcoming Ford owners, and other electric vehicles who adopt NACS, to our thousands of Superchargers across North America.”
A Tesla-developed adapter will provide Ford F-150 Lightning, Mustang Mach-E and E-Transit vehicles fitted with the Combined Charging System (CCS) port access to Tesla’s V3 Superchargers. Ford will equip future EVs with the NACS charge port, removing the need for an adapter for direct access to Tesla Superchargers, starting in 2025.
“Tesla has led the industry in creating a large, reliable and efficient charging system and we are pleased to be able to join forces in a way that benefits customers and overall EV adoption,” said Marin Gjaja, chief customer officer, Ford Model e. “The Tesla Supercharger network has excellent reliability and the NACS plug is smaller and lighter. Overall, this provides a superior experience for customers.”
The BlueOval Charge Network is already North America’s largest public charging network with over 84,000 chargers including access to over 10,000 public DC fast-chargers. Adding more than 12,000 Tesla Superchargers creates the single largest integrated fast-charge network across the U.S. and Canada, designed to significantly reduce charge anxiety for Ford customers, with automatic routing to the nearest charger and seamless billing via FordPass.
Additionally, Ford dealers are adding roughly 1,800 public-facing fast-chargers and locations to the BlueOval Charge Network by early 2024.
TSLA
NKLA - Trevor Milton, the founder and CEO was convicted of fraud and faces up to 40 years in the slammer ..... sentencing is next month -
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/14/business/trevor-milton-nikola-fraud.html
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/nikola-founders-sentencing-on-fraud-convictions-delayed
PYPL -2.43 to 59.37, a new 52wk low ..... I don't know why the selloff today, but it seems like it wants to go lower, so I remain on the sidelines for now .....
INMD is on my watchlist and I might soon be joining you ..... it does look oversold.
IEP -4.66 to 19.28 after Ackman twists the knife, lol -
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3975134-icahn-enterprises-tumbles-23-amid-salvo-from-bill-ackman
CCL - cruise ships are fully booked and packing in passengers like sardines in a can - sounds delightful. Pent up demand after the pandemic.
Summer Cruise Travelers Get Packed Like Sardines -- WSJ
(Dow Jones 05/25 02:32:42)
Expect long lines for activities, sold-out excursions and stressed crews;
in some cases, would-be passengers are bumped due to overbooking
By Jacob Passy
Anyone expecting a repeat of the ample elbow room on many cruises last
summer should prepare. The crowds are back at sea.
Cruise lines are seeing occupancy levels above 100% on many ships,
largely due to the discounts and promotions many cruise lines offered in
late fall and winter. Passengers are encountering long lines for activities
on board, sold-out excursions and stressed-out crew members, a year after
all but having ships to themselves. In extreme cases, cruise lines are
canceling some people's trips after overselling.
Royal Caribbean Group reported that the occupancy rate across its cruise
lines averaged 102.1% during the first quarter of 2023, up from 57.4% in
early 2022. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings says the occupancy rate averaged
101.5% during the first quarter and projects it to average 103.5% for the
full year.
Cruise occupancy rates can rise above 100% because they are based on the
expectation that two people will stay in each cabin, and this was a common
occurrence before the pandemic. When three or four passengers stay in one
cabin, occupancy rates can exceed 100%.
The average starting cost of a five-night cruise on a major cruise line
for an inside cabin is $743 in June, according to data from cruise website
Cruise Critic. That's up from $551 during the same month last year. The
price of a cruise vacation varies based on destination, duration, cabin type
and cruise line, among other factors.
Bookings have been strongest for "sun and fun destinations" like the
Caribbean, says David Crooks, senior vice president of product and
operations for World Travel Holdings, a Massachusetts-based travel agency
that operates cruise-booking sites including CruisesOnly and Cruises.com.
Many of these cruises are sold out for this summer and are seeing strong
demand well into 2024, he says. There is more flexibility for cruises in
Europe and Alaska.
Much like airlines, cruise lines sell more reservations than they can
accommodate for a given booking, cruise industry executives say, under the
expectation that some portion of travelers will choose not to go.
"Hotel companies don't build a property with the goal of having empty
rooms and sports teams don't build stadiums to have empty seats," Chris
Chiames, chief communications officer at Carnival Cruise Line, said in an
email.
Stateroom shortage
Some cruise lines have encountered a larger number of oversold ships in
recent months.
Royal Caribbean has had multiple sailings that were oversold in recent
months. A company spokesman said that its cruise lines' revenue teams
proactively contact select guests to avoid overselling cruises. He notes
that these customers are offered the ability to choose a different sailing,
with several dates to choose from. He said this approach can be successful
in avoiding the need to bump guests.
The recent spate of overbooked sailings is a reflection of pent-up travel
demand, Crooks says.
Sometimes the rebooking options are on different ships, says Colleen
McDaniel, editor in chief of Cruise Critic. Passengers also often can choose
a refund of all money already paid to the cruise line, plus a future cruise
credit.
For those with flexibility, this could mean a free or heavily discounted
cruise. For others, getting bumped can represent a major financial burden.
Diane Gainey, a Maryland retiree, planned to go on a Celebrity Cruises
voyage in Japan with her husband and son this September. She had booked the
cruise in February 2022 to take advantage of a deal offered during another
sailing. A few weeks ago, Celebrity notified her that her reservation was
canceled because the ship was oversold.
Celebrity offered her a refund or the option to rebook on a 2024 cruise
with a similar itinerary. The family had already purchased airfare and
booked a hotel for when they were supposed to arrive in Japan. She made
those reservations separately from her cruise booking, meaning they weren't
part of the refund. Celebrity offered to cover up to $500 in ancillary
charges, including change fees for airline tickets, Gainey says. But she
says she stands to lose as much as $6,000, mostly on airfare.
The family is waiting to negotiate with their airline for a refund or
credit to see if Celebrity will offer a better deal. "It's not like any of
this is our fault," she says.
A company spokesman says this was an isolated incident due to
unprecedented demand for sailings in Japan. He added that Celebrity offered
$450 in future cruise credits and that passengers who rebook cruises for
next year will pay the current rate for their future sailing.
All guests on deck
Beyond the cancellations, crowds on ships these days can lead to
frustration. Onshore excursions and other premium activities book up far
quicker, McDaniel says.
"If there's something you want to do, and it's going to make or break
your vacation, you should book it as soon as you know you want to do it, "
McDaniel says.
Careful planning can help travelers avoid some of the headaches caused by
more crowded ships. Tanner Callais, founder of travel website Cruzely.com,
says he times his arrival on embarkation day on the later side to avoid long
waits to board.
During the cruise, he visits dining rooms during nonpeak times and waits
until lunchtime to grab a spot by the pool. If a show has multiple
performances, Callais says, the later ones typically have smaller audiences.
Kailin Gow, an author who lives in Las Vegas, recently sailed with her
husband and teenage daughter from Los Angeles to Vancouver, British
Columbia, on a Norwegian cruise. The ship was packed, she says, and the crew
appeared overwhelmed. Their cabin steward told the family that he was
responsible for 22 cabins on the ship, while in the past he only had to
oversee 16.
Norwegian didn't respond to requests for comment.
"Because it was so overbooked, every time you went out of your room, it
felt like you were in a Disneyland line," Gow says. "It made the experience
very stressful."
Write to Jacob Passy at jacob.passy@wsj.com
This article is being republished as part of our daily reproduction of
WSJ.com articles that also appeared in the U.S. print edition of The Wall
Street Journal (May 25, 2023).
NCLH
SMCI +37 to 205, an AI play up sharply after the blowout NVDA report ..... wish I had held onto SMCI. The short attack in the $80's a few months ago has really backfired on them !
NVDA up sharply after hours -
briefing -
NVIDIA beats by $0.17, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs far above consensus (305.38 -1.50)
Reports Q1 (Apr) earnings of $1.09 per share, $0.17 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.92; revenues fell 13.2% year/year to $7.19 bln vs the $6.52 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
Data Center: First-quarter revenue was a record $4.28 billion, up 14% from a year ago and up 18% from the previous quarter.
Gaming: First-quarter revenue was $2.24 billion, down 38% from a year ago and up 22% from the previous quarter.
Professional Visualization: First-quarter revenue was $295 million, down 53% from a year ago and up 31% from the previous quarter.
Automotive: First-quarter revenue was a record $296 million, up 114% from a year ago and up 1% from the previous quarter.
Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $11.0 bln, +/- 2%, equating to revenue of $10.78-$11.22 bln vs. $7.11 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 68.6% and 70.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points.
"A trillion dollars of installed global data center infrastructure will transition from general purpose to accelerated computing as companies race to apply generative AI into every product, service and business process. ... Our entire data center family of products — H100, Grace CPU, Grace Hopper Superchip, NVLink, Quantum 400 InfiniBand and BlueField-3 DPU — is in production. We are significantly increasing our supply to meet surging demand for them."
TOL +1.70 to 65.45 after crushing Apr Q2 estimates and boosting guidance -
briefing -
Toll Brothers beats by $0.93, beats on revs (63.76 -0.95) :
Reports Q2 (Apr) earnings of $2.85 per share, $0.93 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $1.92; revenues rose 10.1% year/year to $2.51 bln vs the $2.07 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
Delivered homes in Q2 were 2,492, up 4% yr/yr and above prior guidance of 2,050 - 2,150 units.
Co guides to Q3 (Jul) deliveries of 2,350-2,450 units and adjusted home sales gross margin of 27.7%.
Co increases FY23 deliveries guidance to 8,900-9,500 units from 8,000-9,000 units prior guidance; guides to adjusted home sales gross margin of 27.8% vs 27/0% prior guidance.
"There continues to be a substantial shortage of homes for sale in the U.S., as housing starts have not kept up with population growth for at least the past 15 years. Now, the supply of homes for sale is being further limited by a historically tight resale market as homeowners are reluctant to give up their low-rate mortgages. We believe the resulting supply - demand imbalance will continue well into the future, adding to the long-term tailwinds that have supported the housing industry in recent years."
GTEC +.22 to 1.76 on heavy early volume of 200k ..... nice to see the CEO buy 67k shares as well as the positive analyst commentary. A $13 price target seems a tad aggressive but I think $3+ by year end is very realistic.
NKLA -.02 to 0.76, now in desperate need of a big cash infusion to avoid bankruptcy ..... this was a very hot EV stock back during the EV hype in 2020 hitting a peak of around $95. Now it's totally in the doghouse, like so many other once high flying EV stocks including SOLO, GOEV, SLDP, QS, etc.
S&P500 -40 to 4152, facing major resistance at 4200 .... maybe we'll get a minor correction after failing to breakout ? The S&P hasn't been much over 4200 since last August.
Trend Start Price Trend End Price Gain/Loss % Days in Trend
01/04/22 4818.62 01/24/22 4222.62 -12.4% 14
01/24/22 4222.62 02/02/22 4595.31 8.8% 8
02/02/22 4595.31 02/24/22 4114.65 -10.5% 16
02/24/22 4114.65 03/03/22 4416.78 7.3% 6
03/03/22 4416.78 03/08/22 4157.87 -5.9% 4
03/08/22 4157.87 03/29/22 4637.3 11.5% 16
03/29/22 4637.3 05/02/22 4062.51 -12.4% 24
05/02/22 4062.51 05/04/22 4307.66 6% 3
05/04/22 4307.66 05/12/22 3858.87 -10.4% 7
05/12/22 3858.87 05/17/22 4090.72 6% 4
05/17/22 4090.72 05/20/22 3810.32 -6.9% 4
05/20/22 3810.32 06/02/22 4177.51 9.6% 9
06/02/22 4177.51 06/17/22 3636.87 -12.9% 12
06/17/22 3636.87 06/28/22 3945.86 8.5% 7
06/28/22 3945.86 07/14/22 3721.56 -5.7% 12
07/14/22 3721.56 08/16/22 4325.28 16.2% 24
08/16/22 4325.28 09/06/22 3886.75 -10.1% 15
09/06/22 3886.75 09/12/22 4119.28 6% 5
09/12/22 4119.28 09/30/22 3584.13 -13% 15
09/30/22 3584.13 10/05/22 3806.91 6.2% 4
10/05/22 3806.91 10/13/22 3491.58 -8.3% 7
10/13/22 3491.58 11/01/22 3911.79 12% 14
11/01/22 3911.79 11/03/22 3698.15 -5.5% 3
11/03/22 3698.15 12/13/22 4100.96 10.9% 28
12/13/22 4100.96 12/22/22 3764.49 -8.2% 8
12/22/22 3764.49 02/02/23 4195.44 11.4% 28
02/02/23 4195.44 03/13/23 3808.86 -9.2% 27
03/13/23 3808.86 05/19/23 4212.91 10.6% 49
The Russell has been outperforming the S&P recently .... up over 1% today versus an 0.2% loss for the S&P. Hopefully this trend continues ..... the Russell has a lot of catching up to do.
SURG is a very small position for me, so I can afford to risk it .... just watching the chart at this point with no specific price target in mind, although maybe there'll be resistance at the 52wk high of $7.61 ?
SURG +.69 to 6.85, surging higher despite the increased scrutiny of the ACP program by the FCC. I'm still hanging on .....
HDSN (9.26) - I sold covered calls, strike $8, on half my shares which I now regret .... but the rest are uncovered. Still plenty of upside left to the 52wk high of 12.46.
CUBI +2.10 to 24.05, continuing a nice rally, but still looks very cheap with a forward PE around 4 and a deep discount to book value.
HDSN +.39 to 9.24, a nearly 30% gain from the 7.21 just over 2 weeks ago .... I should have backed up the truck to buy shares in the low $7's !
SSK - thanks for putting in all the work to run these contests. The picks were interesting to review. We'll see if they can outperform NYFANG which has been hot but seems overdue for a correction !
NYFANG and the tech megacaps are having a great year and look frothy ..... but the Russell Microcap Index is down 3% YTD ..... not so hot at all. Also sectors like financials and energy have plenty of bargains, if perhaps speculative.
I'll be interested in seeing the picks for PSL18 !
YTD -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$NYFANG 53% 6814.71 4448.07
$NDX 26% 13834.62 10939.76
$COMP 21% 12688.84 10466.48
$RLG 19% 2567.99 2158.19
$SPX 9% 4198.05 3839.5
$DJT 5% 14003.33 13391.91
$MID 2% 2477.87 2430.38
$BTK 1% 5356.07 5281.1
$RUT 1% 1784.86 1761.25
$SPXEW 1% 5809.56 5739.53
$DJI 1% 33535.91 33147.25
$W5KMICRO1% 12788.11 12683.47
$IXBT 0% 0 0
$RLV 0% 1493.97 1497.12
$SML 0% 1153.31 1157.53
$NBITR -1% 4420.63 4474.26
$NBI -2% 4150.39 4213.13
$RUMIC -3% 657.5 678.57
$DJU -5% 916.91 967.4
GTEC - I'm also considering it for PSL18, but it will depend on the closing price .... the cheaper, the better. Otherwise I might trade into it if it gets back near the lows in the coming days or weeks .....
The deadline for submitting PSL picks is 4pm today !