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Wave of Bankruptcy Filings Expected From Retailers in Wake of Holidays
Wave of Bankruptcy Filings Expected From Retailers in Wake of Holidays
JANUARY 12, 2009
Drained by the worst consumer-spending slump in decades and burdened by debt, U.S. retailers are expected to begin a wave of post-holiday bankruptcy filings, altering the landscape at malls and on main streets across the country.
Retailers are particularly vulnerable in the current downturn after a decade of buoyant consumer spending, which encouraged them to overexpand and overborrow. Now, the banks and private investors who financed the boom are pulling back.
Several of the industry's biggest lenders, including General Electric Co.'s GE Capital, CIT Group Inc. and Wachovia Corp., are tightening lending terms and reducing exposure to retailers. Their tougher ...
LINK: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123171955382272193.html
The US Economy to go into a Depression in 2009
Last Price: 51.8
What does this mean?
51.8 means the market predicts there is a 51.8%
chance that this event happens.
If you think it is more likely than this you should
If you think it is less likely you should
All markets trade between 0 ($0.0) and 100 ($10).
51.8 = $5.18
See http://www.intrade.com for more details!
The US Economy to go into a Depression in 2009
Last Price: 51.8
What does this mean?
51.8 means the market predicts there is a 51.8%
chance that this event happens.
If you think it is more likely than this you should
If you think it is less likely you should
All markets trade between 0 ($0.0) and 100 ($10).
51.8 = $5.18
See http://www.intrade.com for more details!
The US Economy to go into a Depression in 2009
Last Price: 51.8
What does this mean?
51.8 means the market predicts there is a 51.8%
chance that this event happens.
If you think it is more likely than this you should
If you think it is less likely you should
All markets trade between 0 ($0.0) and 100 ($10).
51.8 = $5.18
See http://www.intrade.com for more details!
The US Economy to go into a Depression in 2009
Last Price: 51.8
What does this mean?
51.8 means the market predicts there is a 51.8%
chance that this event happens.
If you think it is more likely than this you should
If you think it is less likely you should
All markets trade between 0 ($0.0) and 100 ($10).
51.8 = $5.18
See http://www.intrade.com for more details!
~~~~~~~COMPX 1/12/2008~~~~~~~
Previous Close 1571.59 -45.42
1602 SSKILLZ1
1531 FinancialAdvisor
Vacancies at U.S. shopping malls reach 10-year high
Vacancies at U.S. shopping malls reach 10-year high
Sunday, January 11, 2009
By Hui-yong Yu BLOOMBERG NEWS
Vacancies at U.S. malls and shopping centers approached 10-year highs in the fourth quarter, and are set to rise further as declining retail sales put more stores out of business, research firm Reis Inc. said.
Regional mall vacancies rose to 7.1 percent last quarter, from 6.6 percent in the third quarter. It was the highest vacancy rate since Reis began tracking regional malls in 2000, as well as the largest quarter-to-quarter jump in vacancies, according to New York-based Reis.
More than a dozen retailers, including Circuit City Stores Inc., Linens ’n Things Inc. and Sharper Image Corp., filed for bankruptcy protection in 2008 as the credit squeeze and recession drained sales. Vacancies will rise further until the job market recovers, housing prices stabilize and lending resumes, restoring consumer confidence, said Reis.
“So much of consumer spending depends on the wealth effect,” said Victor Calanog, director of research at Reis. “Unfortunately, all three conditions are still in flux. Even when they stabilize, we often observe anywhere from a 12- to 24- month lag until commercial retail properties begin benefiting.”
At neighborhood and community shopping centers, the vacancy rate rose to 8.9 percent from 8.4 percent in the third quarter, the highest since Reis began publishing quarterly data in 1999.
Simon Property Group Inc., the biggest U.S. mall owner, which operates the Greendale Mall in Worcester, the Solomon Pond Mall in Marlboro and the Auburn Mall in Auburn, lost 435,000 square feet to bankruptcies last year through Sept. 30, up from 50,000 square feet in the same period a year earlier, Chief Executive Officer David Simon said in November. Simon’s multiyear leases protect the company to some extent from monthly changes in consumer spending, Simon said.
Asking rents at malls fell 0.2 percent from the previous quarter and rose 0.3 percent from a year earlier. Mall vacancies have climbed 2 percentage points from the 5.1 percent in 2005’s second quarter, the low for the last business cycle, said Reis.
Asking rents at shopping centers, which are typically anchored by a grocery store, fell 0.3 percent from the prior quarter and rose 0.4 percent from a year earlier. Effective rents fell 0.9 percent from the prior quarter and were down 1.1 percent from a year earlier, according to Reis.
At neighborhood shopping centers, tenants vacated more space than they leased, causing so-called net absorption to shrink by 4.1 million square feet, according to Reis.
“Neighborhood and community centers coming online encountered tremendous difficulties in pre-leasing retail space,” Calanog said. “This has been prevalent all throughout 2008, with new projects coming online at around 50 percent vacant, compared to the 25 percent Retailers will close 12,000 stores in 2009, after the worst holiday sales in 40 years, according to Howard Davidowitz, chairman of retail consulting and investment-banking firm Davidowitz & Associates Inc. in New York.
The Bloomberg REIT Shopping Center Index of 20 companies led by Kimco Realty Corp. lost a third of its value during the past year, about the same as the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Kimco, the largest U.S. owner of community shopping centers, cut its earnings forecast for 2008, citing the credit crisis.
The Bloomberg REIT Regional Mall Index of seven mall owners fell 57 percent. The index was dragged down by General Growth Properties Inc., the country’s second-largest regional mall landlord, whose shares tumbled 96 percent. The company took on debt for acquisitions and couldn’t refinance once the credit crisis took hold.
LINK: http://www.telegram.com/article/20090111/NEWS/901110336/1002
I heard they are trying to buy out all the gold from all the pawn shops across the country, they want records of how much they all have and they will buy it all out... sign of things to come, way I took the news I heard was that they are going to get all they can before the value of the FRN totally hits next to nothing... cause they know its true worth...
Times are interesting, gets your guns ready, it's almost militia time
he's been more right than u all along, if you people would've nominated someone like Ron Paul instead of two commie-socialists, we'd have Peter Schiff in their as Ron Paul's economic advisor, but nooo... this country fell asleep, drugged with reality TV, useless sports games, and prescription drugs...
And nominated became a Kissinger-corpse and the NWO high priest/puppet... wow what choices we have... Illuminati have again fixed the elections...
Obama=more of the same! Just like his predecessor - using fear to gain control over sheople, I work with someone who even voted for him, and he sees the light! He admitted more of the same and wonders why more people didn't listen to Ron Paul - instead they nominated a corpse...
All communist-socialist globalist sell-outs=> bush/obama/mccain - They opened the floodgates with the 1st 700 bill... now no1 even pays attention to the smaller packages... you know- 50 bill here, 100 bill there... basically printing all the money they want for their commie friends who were paid to destroy America's manufacturing base ever since these bastards signed the federal reserve act of 1913, we will one day march and stone and hang them in public for what they've done - I think they should be at least publicly tarred & feathered - stoning optional!
Did you just put down my man Peter Schiff?
Still holding SRS - I seriously think it has better then a 50% shot at 80-90 next week on OE!!!
Equity Residential scales back development plans
*Have a great weekend folks... please don't let the Great Depression '09 get YOU down!!!
Equity Residential scales back development plans
Equity Residential scales back development plans, expects $115 million charge
Friday January 9, 2009, 5:34 pm EST
CHICAGO (AP) -- Equity Residential, an apartment developer and manager, said on Friday it will not go ahead with some of its previously planned projects because of concerns about the economy.
Equity Residential said it will record a charge of about $115 million, or 39 cents per share, against its fourth-quarter 2008 earnings to account for the reduced value of land holdings for five projects it no longer plans to pursue. The company said the charge does not affect its continued compliance with financial or debt covenants.
Equity Residential said the decision to drop certain projects does not affect 10 apartment properties under construction. Construction and leasing for those properties is expected to be completed, with about $623 million remaining to fund current construction activities.
"While development of high-quality assets in our core markets will continue to be an important part of Equity Residential's growth, we will not start any new projects for our own account until capital markets and the economy show signs of improvement," said David Neithercut, Equity Residential's president and chief executive.
The company said in a statement that it "has already reduced its development staff and may continue to make adjustments as conditions warrant."
Equity Residential, which acquires, develops and manages apartment properties, made the announcement after its shares fell $1.10, or about 4 percent, to close at $25.82. The company owns or has investments in 552 properties in 23 states and Washington, D.C.
LINK: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Equity-Residential-scales-apf-14020634.html
4:10PM Equity Res to take Q4 2008 impairment charge of ~$0.39 from reduced planned development activity (EQR) 25.70 -1.22 : EQR announced that the co will reduce the number of planned development projects it will undertake and, as a result, will incur a non-cash charge in Q4 of 2008 of ~$115 mln, or $0.39 per share. The charge reflects impairments in the value of land holdings for five potential development projects that the co no longer plans to pursue. The impairment charge is the difference between each parcel's estimated fair value and current capitalized carrying value, which includes pursuit costs. The impairment charge does not affect the co's continued compliance with its financial or debt covenants. After this charge, the co will have land held for development of ~$250 mln, representing ~1.5% of the co's total assets.
LINK >>> http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay#eqr
I'm thinking this will target the 38.2% fibonacci at 90.40 either next week or the week after which would also coincidentally coincide with the 200 day moving average as well as the 50 weekly average!
Any other thoughts, discussion is encouraged!
#msg-34719510 => Charts say we are headed to 90 like a missile!
***SRS 58.36 - Hope everyone enjoys their weekend, I just wanted to say, the current 'technical set-up' could rally SRS right back to the 38.2% fibonacci line, which in this case is 90.40 and just about coincides with both the 50 weekly average and 200 day moving average at 91.
As you can see by looking at both the daily and weekly charts below, SRS can and will move quick in downturns. Anyone into technical analysis knows that stocks tend to drop 2, even 3 times faster then when they rise. With that said, the compounding gains can easily allow SRS to double in a very short period of time!
This is exactly what happened in October and November, and the same technical set-up just closed out the week on SRS...
Options expirations can be especially volatile. Going into October's expiration week, SRS opened at 105.67, got as low as 92.04 and as high as 149.99 before closing at 118.37. November's expiration saw SRS at the highest price ever, 295.72 before closing at 216.67 on that very same day! It had opened that week at 169.15, we are talking swings of over 50% at a time here folks. This could easily go to 90 next week, and I'm not kidding!
It's doubled in a week's time before, and the VIX just bottomed out and has started another rally higher. For market makers, increased volatility means the markets are heading lower yet again as the previous two sessions have shown... so buckle up and get ready, the commercial real estate crash is real and it's happening right in front of our eyes:
Previously I said it would go to lower 400's before crashing, but now I think 340 was it... unemployment numbers will only get worse and commercial real estate just starting crashing, people are starting to wake up to the truths of the economy and the market believes there's greater than a 40% chance of a Depression starting this year... Yes, it's going lower, at least into the 100's, if not closer towards the book value, which last I checked was around 85/share!
Illuminati, huh Montanore, you are a very enlightened individual, may God help us with what is coming down the pike...
Bankruptcy a possibility here, how will they ever repay over 17 billion in loans?
I think technicals in this case could work a bit better then you think... let's see... right at resistance coming out of lunch into a Friday close... this could get lit and get sparked right up to $60 before the weekend!
If only it breaks that resistance in the lower end of the 56's...
Total 2008 Job Loss Most Since 1945, are we shorting the gap here?
The Depression '09 contract at intrade.com is currently at 44, meaning the market right now believes in a 44% chance of a Depression this year... it's up from 31% earlier in the weak...
On a side note, that massive daily chart in the ibox has some pretty bullish indicators on it... I think everything hinges on the performance of SPG, watch that one, it's on the verge of having a severe roll-over to the downside, the wildcard is GGP going bankrupt, and of course there are others.
I was at the mall tonight, K B Toys went bankrupt, feel for the people who have unspent gift cards to that place, they are now worthless... If you don't know what K B Toys is, they are like a mall version of Toys R Us, I know at least one of the REITS this index tracks short gets a great bit of their income from Toys R Us... and they are very at risk for Chapter 11 next... Macy's closing 11 stores today in the news, I really don't see how this stock wasn't up more today!
~~~~~~~COMPX 1/9/2008~~~~~~~
Previous Close 1617.01 +17.95
1643 SSKILLZ1
1543 FinancialAdvisor
Smart money is all over this now!!! Check out the options that expire next week... all the volume, especially on the $65 call? WOW!!!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=SRS
SRS NAV at 53.19 but price closed at 52.53...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Esrs-iv
Look who's bullish on SRS - Read his blog post from today!
http://trendtradingtowin.blogspot.com/
- And yet another bullish blog, even has pretty charts...
http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2009/01/nibbling-short-on-realestate-again.html
2-4-5-7-10-12-13-16-17-20-22-23
2) BAL
4) BAL +2.5
5) Over 34.5
7) CAR
10) ARI +9.5
12) Under 48.5
13) NYG
16) PHI +4.5
17) Over 40.5
20) SDC
22) SDC +6.5
23) Over 39.5
***SRS 52.53 - Looks like I was a little early on this one. I'm extremely bullish though on it right now. It actually closed under NAV (Net-Asset Value) today, and has an extremely bullish set-up in my opinion:
~~~~~~~COMPX 1/8/2008~~~~~~~
Previous Close 1599.06 -53.32
1547 SSKILLZ1
1522 FinancialAdvisor
Retail sales Thursday and unemployment Friday... not to mention some earnings reports sprinkled in, some geopolitics, and God knows what else...
Nice charts bro, sure looks like a bear flag to me, from what I understand, SRS is supposed to track -2x the DJ Real Estate Index, with that said, not sure why it wasn't up more today, another thing I do know, it closed under the NAV value today, that alone is extremely bullish!
Anywhere here's a nice bear flag set-up into horrible retail sales numbers tomorrow and more record high unemployment numbers Friday... oh wait the government is reporting them so they're not quite at record highs... yet... stay tuned...
~~~~~~~COMPX 1/7/2008~~~~~~~
Previous Close 1652.38 +24.35
1624 SSKILLZ1
1601 FinancialAdvisor
The crash could start now, we have 6% unemployment numbers to look forward to, highest unemployment of all-time in the reporting of "sugar-coated" guber-MENTAL numbers...
We have employer's such as Alcoa cutting 13,500 jobs, IBM cutting 16,000 jobs. We have bankruptcies and stores closing businesses.
We have Russia stopping all gas supply to Europe via Ukraine.
Oh did I forget to mention the dollar is getting trashed again?
If the market rallies today, you'd be living in la-la land if you didn't consider selling all that you could. Oh did I forget to mention, we are on the verge of a serious commercial real estate crash!?
Good luck, perhaps reality kicks in starting today!
***SRS - big-time intraday fall-off, down 8.51% at 50.56 - may test all-time lows today... Starting to intraday V-bottom as I write this.
One of two things occurring imo - Either this is the final shakeout before an explosion upwards, or new all-time lows are going to come and take SRS to 40...
So far it's holding the double-bottom and the SAR support - so far... Extremely volatile trader and not for the faint of heart! That candlestick looks bearish though unless SRS gaps up tomorrow and rallies past or towards today's high to close... Only guarantee is SRS will remain volatile for the forseeable future...
P.S. - My market timing was off on this one!
P.S.S. - 50 dollar flat 2:36...
FOMC minutes at 2 PM, maybe we'll see volume then... With yields rising alongside bank issued mortgage rates... I can't possibly see how this is bullish next to horrible unemployment numbers, stagflating salaries, and FOMC interest rates can only go in one direction now...
Looking for one helluva close...
CHEERS (Lord knows we need one) !!!
Anyone else notice the volume on the markets today kind of stinks... GE, XOM, QQQQ, whatever...
Seems like more money is being placed into Ultralong and Ultrashort ETF's now-a-days...
Very nice - Is there a way to check the short interest on these?
SRS sure moves fast, not recommended for the weak-hearted!
Not looking so hot right now though... maybe has to do with GGP's rally today, they still have billions in debt due Feb from what I read and hired bankruptcy counsel, unless I'm getting them confused with another mall property owner...
Long SRS at 54.85
- Target 90 -
Next crash comes in commercial real estate from Q4 2008/Q1 2009...
Broke above $2 resistance, old resistance becomes new support...
CHEERS !!!
***SRS - I'm bullish and expecting a sharp retest of the 200 day moving average/50 weekly (towards 90), the pent-up interest in this one is starting to unravel!
Great board frenchee, I'm bullish, expecting a quick retest of the 200 day moving average!
Feel free to post my charts in the ibox from #msg-34607083