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kid I played it from 14's (the day you called it a pos) to 50's. And yes I still got my core position in the 12's.
short term...yes.
Floor Talk - The stock market began the day on a positive note, but its mood has quickly turned sour.
The reason for the mood swing has been attributed largely to comments from Bill Gross, who wrote in his monthly outlook today that the time for risk taking has passed, that asset returns in many categories may turn negative at some future date this year, and that investors should be cautious and content with low positive returns in 2015.
An important qualifier in considering the reported catalyst for today's retreat is that Mr. Gross was quoted yesterday (during market hours) in a Reuters article, saying investors should "Be prepared for low returns in almost all asset categories."
The headlines from today, then, aren't entirely "new" news, yet they have exposed the market's otherwise anxious nature to begin 2015.
The catalyst for the reversal of fortune that we would point to is the unyielding strength in longer-dated Treasury securities (10-yr up more than a point with its yield at 1.92%) and the unyielding weakness in oil prices (-3.9% at $48.11/bbl).
Neither fits at all with the prevailing narrative that the U.S. economy will pick up the rest of the world with its economic revival.
It can and probably should, but that's not what the market is feeling right now.
Instead, the market is pre-occupied with thoughts that an extended period of disinflation/deflation will hold back the global economy -- the U.S. included.
Accordingly, the cyclical sectors are today's biggest laggards while the relative strength leaders are the countercyclical sectors.
The expectation, or concern, that more downside might be seen is reflected in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 22.06, +2.14), which is up nearly 11% today and 23% already this week.
December ISM non-manufacturing index: 56.2, below consensus 58.0.
December 2014 US Markit services PMI final 53.3 vs 53.7 exp http://bit.ly/17fETl6
Redbook
Released On 1/6/2015 8:55:00 AM For wk1/3, 2015
Prior Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change 5.4 % 4.3 %
Highlights
Store sales slowed in the January 3 week according to Redbook's same-store sales tally where year-on-year growth slowed to 4.3 percent from the prior week's 5.4 percent. December as a whole was also weak, down 0.6 percent and indicating contraction for the core reading of the government's retail sales report. Redbook notes that holiday sales were more promotional than planned which points to margin pressure for retailers.
Gallup US ECI
Released On 1/6/2015 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2014
Prior Actual
level -8 -5
Highlights
Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged plus 1 for the week ending Jan. 4. This is consistent with plus 2 found the week prior, the first readings in positive territory since 2008.
Gallup's Economic Confidence Index dropped as low as minus 65 in late 2008 after the government intervened to prevent the collapse of large financial institutions. Although it had generally moved up from that point, the index stayed in negative territory until two weeks ago. The previous weekly high was minus 3 in the week ending June 2, 2013.
There have been two notable dips in confidence since 2008. The first was a drop to minus 53 in late 2011 after federal government negotiations to raise the debt ceiling led to volatility in the stock market. And more recently in the fall of 2013, the index dropped to minus 39 after the partial federal government shutdown.
Despite the push into positive territory near the end of the month, slightly more pessimistic evaluations of the economy earlier in December held the monthly average for the Economic Confidence Index to minus 5. Still, this is the highest monthly average Gallup has found since daily tracking began in 2008, passing the previous high of minus 7 in May 2013.
Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: Americans' views of current economic conditions and their perceptions of whether the economy is getting better or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of plus 100, if all Americans believe the economy is in excellent or good health and getting better. It has a theoretical minimum of minus 100, if all Americans rate the economy as poor and getting worse. Although those extremes are never likely to be reached, the index is constructed such that positive scores indicate Americans are positive about the economy overall and negative scores that they view it negatively.
In 2014, the monthly current conditions index improved early in the year before flattening out, but then showed sustained improvement in the fall and early winter months. Meanwhile, Americans' perceptions of the outlook for the economy fluctuated between showing increases and decreases before beginning a sustained period of improvement in September.
In December, 24 percent of Americans said the economy was "excellent" or "good" and 29 percent said it was "poor." This resulted in a current conditions score of -5, roughly the same as the -7 in November and among the highest monthly current conditions scores found since February 2008.
The economic outlook score increased five points to minus 4 in December, the highest monthly economic outlook score since May 2013. This was the result of 46 percent of Americans saying the economy was "getting better" while 50 percent said it was "getting worse."
While Gallup's Economic Confidence Index reached higher weekly levels in December than were found earlier in the year, 2014 as a whole was similar to 2013. The yearly average in 2014 was minus 15, just one point higher than minus 16 in 2013. This is attributable to the lower scores earlier in 2014, particularly in March and July when the monthly average was minus 17.
Americans' more positive views of the economy appear to be holding, as Gallup's Economic Confidence Index stayed in positive territory for a second consecutive week. And those positive weekly numbers could continue for the next several weeks because economic confidence typically increases in January. The monthly index has increased between one and 11 points between December and January each year since 2008.
$GTIM Good Times Reports Q1 Same Store Sales +8%
Goldman Sachs Expects The Stock Market To Follow A Very Specific Path In 2015
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-2015-stock-market-chart-2015-1#ixzz3NxO2xlL8http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-2015-stock-market-chart-2015-1
@ReformedBroker: “New All-Time Highs” http://t.co/TOgyn3G80q
Schedule for Week of January 4, 2015 http://t.co/U0nVwHDQBO
Trends in the US ISM manufacturing index http://t.co/ZHuCPngrpl http://t.co/OewIIQS04E
Happy New Year to everyone!
$LUV and other airline stocks nHOD new all time highs. ;-D
UMich 92.6, Exp.93.9, Last revised to 91.0
On The Fly: After Hours Movers $RPRX $FMD $CVEO $JST $CKH: Full Story http://t.co/CGBa9KI0gA
$TGT new all time high
Schedule for Week of December 28th http://t.co/KR3NZ3zyjf
Happy holidays and merry Christmas to all!
@zerohedge: Another huge build: DOE Crude inventories +7.267MM barrels, Exp. -2.5MM, Last -847K
Initial Claims 280K, Exp. 290K
The end of the run? $CUBA President Sold 200K Shares http://t.co/DcooiqUpoM
USA FHFA House Price Index for Oct 0.60% vs 0.30% consensus estimate. The prior reading was 0.00%.
U.S. Economic Confidence Index at -5, Highest in 2014... http://t.co/usRW3MhV47 #Economy http://t.co/QMQWwT9wSE
US dollar index rises to 8 year high...past 90 after GDP.
Dow futures indicating an open above 18,000 for the first time ever. http://t.co/SLY593j96l http://t.co/TgUssc2OKd
Still early. More data come yet.
5% growth on GDP for Q3. First back to back 4%+ quarters in 10 years.
Durable Goods Orders -0.7%, Exp. 3.0%, Last 0.3%
US Q3 real GDP 3rd reading 5.0% QoQ SAAR versus 4.3% expected and 3.9% previous.
Natural gas -9.5% following mild weather forecast, bearish inventory views http://t.co/oYiekaaIOO $XOM $CHK $APC $SWN
$FB hits all-time high of $81.73
Tuesday Brings a Stocking Full of Data -- Data Week Ahead
By Kathleen Madigan The economic reports are front-loaded next week because the U.S. government and financial markets will close Thursday to observe Christmas. Tuesday will bring a stocking full of data.
The Commerce Department will be particularly busy, as it is scheduled to release durable goods orders, the last look at third-quarter gross domestic product, new home sales and consumer income and spending.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect new orders for durable goods increased 3.0% in November, after a meager 0.3% gain in October. The November increase should be powered by stronger demand for transportation goods. Businesses remain reticent about boosting demand for other capital equipment and that has kept total durable goods orders on a mediocre trend. More available data suggest real GDP in the summer was peppier than first thought. The median forecast says real GDP growth will be revised up to an annual rate of 4.3%, from the 3.9% rate now in place. Stronger spending on services is key to the upward refiguring.
Monthly data on consumer spending will also be out Tuesday.
Economists think a 0.5% jump in November personal income allowed consumers to increase their spending by 0.5%. The expected increase is supported by increases already reported in car buying and retail sales.
Lastly, Commerce will report on new home sales. The median forecast predicts new home buying increased 1.5%, to an annual rate of 465,000 in November. On Monday, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release data on existing home sales. Those resales are projected to slip 1.1%, to a rate of 5.20 million.
DATE TIME RELEASE PERIOD CONSENSUS PREVIOUS
(ET) Monday 1000 Existing Home Sales Nov 5.20mln(15) 5.26mln --percent change -1.1% +1.5%
Tuesday 0830 Durable Goods Orders Nov +3.0% (14) +0.3% 0830 Real GDP (3rd Read) 3Q +4.3% (15) +3.9%* 0830 GDP Prices (3rd Read) 3Q +1.4% (7) +1.4%* 0955 Consumer Sentiment(end) Dec 93.5 (11) 93.8** 1000 Personal Income Nov +0.5% (14) +0.2% 1000 Consumer Spending Nov +0.5% (15) +0.2% 1000 Core PCE Prices Nov +0.1% (15) +0.2% 1000 New Home Sales Nov 465K (15) 458K --percent change +1.5% +0.7% 1000 Richmond Fed Mfg Svy Dec N/A 4
Wednesday 0830 Jobless Claims Dec 20 290K (11) 289K *3Q 2nd reading **Preliminary December reading (Figures in parentheses refer to number of economists surveyed.)
Write to Kathleen Madigan at kathleen.madigan@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires December 19, 2014 14:03 ET (19:03 GMT) Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. 121914 19:03 -- GMT
truth.
two days in a row with huge gains. Christmas came early. lol
lol. Spy was fun today. 207 Dec calls up (+680.00%)
yep a wowzer. lol
700 points in 2 days. At this rate, SPY will at 210 in 24 hours.
Dow ends up 420 points, biggest gain since November 2011