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Why buy a Nocona for 32 bit apps alone? Presumably the buyers either need the benefits of 64 bit addressing now or feel they will in the near future. If not if seems they would buy a proven 32 bit Xeon. If the Nocona really sucks at 64 bit processing it will be a non-starter and it won't make a difference if MSFT has a 64 bit OS out or not.
The thing that makes the Opteron so unique is that it excels in both 32 and 64 bit processing.
I still don't see what this release was about, certainly not DDR2 or PCI-e, unless perhaps, it was an attempt to placate DELL until the real 64/32 bit processor comes along. If so there had better be more to Nocona than what we've heard about so far. If not those DELL rumors flying about today probably have more truth to them than usual.
I can't really see DELL attempting to sell a chip with the high profile Nocona will be claiming, if that chip is too far behind Opteron in either 32 or 64 bit performance. It would just be another total embarrassment for DELL as well as INTC.
Bottom line is if Nocona doesn't compare fairly well to Opteron DELL isn't going to release it, and INTC won't release it to anyone else. I think that's what I smell.
Let's see how soon Nocona product hits the street. A few reviews would be nice too.
The point I was trying to make is that I have this finely honed nose that can smell BS 5 miles away and this release has the odor of "Eau du Stockyard" all over it. I'm not sure just what the stench is yet, but I'll bet that when it comes out it doesn't smell like rose attar.
As far as I know there aren't any Xeon workstations so I assume INTC will call those something else. While I agree server reviews are scarce due to the difficulty in setting up an environment, Workstation reviews are a lot more common.
This was supposed to be an earth shaking release not just some run of the mill extension to the P4 chip family. Didn't Barrett say that by the end of 2005 INTC was going to be all 64bit in servers? (I might be wrong on this). It still seems very strange that not one review has been posted about any flavor of Nocona. I wonder if the reviews will be subject to the same sort of pre release nonsense that INTC seems to be doing with their chips. How about a pre release of a review?
Ya, having Dell place a large order would seem to go with the sudden turn around in demand fo K8 chips. A month ago everyone was talking about the dearth of demand for Hammers, and suddenly a couple of weeks ago it seemed like they were geeting scarce as hens teeth. The only fly in that scenario is that the low demand was for A64's not Opterons, but those chips are so similar maybe AMD was able to switch some of the A64's to Opterons in mid manufacture? Yes, it does sound a little crazy, but that seems to be the way things are going lately.
Wasn't HP denying any link to AMD and the k8s shortly before they announced that they were renting space in AMD's bed?
Nice day today, but not indicative of Mr. Market having developed a crush on AMD yet. The market is still looking at a skullery maid, but soon she'll be Cinderella. Why not if INTC can do smoke and mirrors with chips why can't a fairy godmother change the house maid into Cinderella. Ones about as believeable as the other.
I thought I read that the 1st Nocona release was to be a work station? That was to be followed later by single processor server?
Yep, found it...
"A variety of manufacturers are expected to come out with workstations incorporating the chip on Monday, with most releasing servers at a later date. Some smaller specialty manufacturers are expected to release servers next week."
http://news.zdnet.co.uk/business/0,39020645,39158859,00.htm
dated..June 28, 2004, 09:05 BST
Me...
This sounds like the chips are in the here and now, but what you saying is it should be awhile? Strange that there aren't any reviews for a chip that is supposed to be out Monday. Maybe the reviews were just vapor reviews? That kind of goes with a vapor release doesn't it? It does seem like we should have seen a workstation review, but who knows what the latest INTC policy is concerning reviews? Things seem to be retro changing so fast at INTC it's hard to keep up with the latest INTC speak.
Been there done that. While I can sympathize with unpaid overtime problems, I think that excuse is more of a crutch than a reason. I might be wrong since I've been out of the IT world for awhile, but I worked for companies like Lockheed that literally had football field size floors with equipment from just about everyone that produced a computer.
Further those systems ran on a plethora of OSes and internal architectures. Today the differences seem much less. I would venture that changing an INTC for an AMD X86 system, in some cases, is almost transparent. Of course you would have to do some testing, but a little effort shouldn’t stop one from reaping the rewards of a lower TCO. Eventually you have to change machines or upgrade the processor, channels, memory, etc., and you need to do some sort of testing for each of those things. It doesn’t seem too much of a leap to replace an INTC machine with an AMD one when considered that way.
Admittedly, I'm probably a little out of my league here anymore so I’ll be interested in your response.
I worked in corporate America for almost 40 years. I know a lot about inertia, and what motivates people to purchase specific products from certain vendors. For some reason IT seems to be an area that is extremely resistant to change. That may seem an idea contrary to something as leading edge as computers, but companies get into ruts just like individuals do. Further, policies get established and no one ever reviews them to determine if they still have the relevancy they did when first proposed.
Sometimes the only solution is a 2X4 to the head. INTC had better get a 64 bit Xeon solution out there pronto or the Opterons are going to become that 2X4
There's not much that can be done about the first three buyers; they're going to keep on buying INTC. But it's the companies that stubbornly remain "INTC only" even in the face of superior AMD products and TCO that have me worried. I have a feeling that the process of turning those guys to AMD is going to be a very slow one.
Fortunately AMD doesn't need to purloin INTC's customers to be very successful. There's enough new business in the world that isn't committed to INTC and will evaluate fairly, that AMD should do very well. I would guess that no more than 10% to 20% of INTC's current business accounts would consider going with AMD unless INTC literally fell apart. To me that's a problem those customers will have to live with.
What I expect to happen in the foreseeable future is that AMD will increase market share while INTC remains relatively stagnant earnings wise. It's hard to see out even a year, but I expect the momentum AMD has built should be sufficient to carry it for a year or two no matter what INTC does. After that is anyone’s guess, but just looking at the companies relative to each other now, I think INTC has big problems that will cause the company to loose the dominant position it currently enjoys. On the other hand, as I've said, I expected AMD to be further along than it is now and INTC has proven much more resilient in the face of problems that would have doomed AMD long ago, so who knows?
LOL. Given all the compounding, continuous problems INTC has had, going on 5 years now, it makes you wonder just who is still buying their stuff. Whoever they are, either they have an incredibly thick skin, they’re dumber than dirt, they're insouciant automatons of unbelieveable habitude, or they're people trapped in an environment that forbids looking outside the box.
There was a time, not so long ago, when you could say that both companies produced similar processors, or that AMD didn't produce certain products or certain lines. But today, with that rear view mirror image rapidly disappearing into the background it's hard to imagine why anyone would be buying INTC's, problem plagued, inferior products.
I've been through turn-arounds with other companies, but AMD has to be the strangest one I've ever seen. I've been wondering, for at least the last year, how long it is going to take for the market to see what is happening, but somnolent Mr. Market seems to keep on snoozing. Of course I've never had a true David and Goliath stock before so I guess things should be different. Still I've never seen a Hydra that seemed so intent on chopping off its' own heads as INTC is. It just goes to show how difficult it is to depose an imbedded monopolist. It has certainly been much more difficult than I ever thought it was going to be.
Your right, but you can choose either.
I can't remember a time when INTL announced a product and no one had a sample to test. Usually, they cherry pick the best of what they have produced and send those to favorable reviewing sights. In this case it sounds like they don't even have any samples to show. It makes one wonder just how far along they are with this chip?
This trend of pre-pre-pre release, followed 2 months later by a pre-pre release, followed 2 months later by a pre release, followed 2 months later by a release, followed 6 months later by actual availability has got to be getting annoying to INTC fans.
Worse still, you thought you ordered a processor but what you got was a ball scorcher that draws enough power to toast bread, and then cuts out to half power whenever it starts to get warm.
Who the hell is running INTC? Where's the tar and feathers?
Forget about finding a Nocona for sale, I can't even find a review of one. Congratulations to INTC, this is certainly something new in releases. This release is somewhere between vapor and either.
Trouble is that I assume everyone else sees in AMD what I do. Obviously, that's not the case, as amply evidenced by the AMD nags on this and other boards.
In the meantime, while I keep looking for a sudden rise, all the stock does is keep meandering between 14 and 16. I know, I know, patience grasshopper, but I still would like to find the beef.
Well by all rights we should be seeing the last of these gyrations at least in this range; we're getting too close to the end of the quarter. The usual rise to earnings should be starting soon, maybe today?
Why, oh why, don't I trade this stock more? I'll bet there are day traders that have made much more on this stock than I have.
Personally I don't think the game is going to end any time soon. All that will happen, if AMD's earnings are better than expected, is that the trading range will move up some. There will always be the nay-sayers that assume any day INTC will come out with a big stick and kick AMD's little ass back to Podunk.
This just guarantees that AMD is going to remain volatile and the volatility should only increase as AMD starts kicking INTC's ass.
Same lesson every month. Don't mess with max pain.
As far as product goes I think HT combined with dual processors will give AMD enough of an edge in the server area that INTC will continue to have a hard time competing. I fully expect AMD to be first with duals, probably a 6 month lead.
As far as notebooks goes we'll have to see what 90nm brings, but given the remarks earlier in the year about having a slew of laptops by year end I'm hopeful.
Desktops should benefit from 90nm in the same way notebooks will. If nothing else the lower energy requirements will give AMD room to push the Ghz.
I think they're heading the right direction, but INTC doesn't exactly have an illustrious record when it comes to graphics. In the past their integrated graphics have been ok for business applications at best. Then there's the bent pin problem and the heat problems and the wireless problems (802.11n is coming) etc.,etc., not to mention PCI-X, and AGP problems.
Like I said I'll believe it when I see it, but I sure would like to see AMD doing more in this area as I think this is one of the things that will stretch out the current cycle a lot further than a lot of investors think.
Given INTCs track record lately concerning releases, I'll believe it when I see it. INTC is more about hot air and promises than I can ever remember.
By the time fab36 comes online money will be a lot less important than it is in today. It had better be or there are going to be a lot quite disappointed AMD investors.
Hopefully by then AMD will be so supply constrained that getting product out the door will be more important than bringing up 65nm.
Transitioning capacity demand to 65nm by using IBMs fabs is probably a good idea if it can be done so both parties make money. Even with just one line fab36 is going to add a ton of chips that will need to be sold no matter whether it's on 65nm or 90nm.
It should be interesting to see how INTC responds to the fab36 weggie.
I'm not sure INTC has enough Z hatches. If INTC wasn't so full of hot air they would have gone down long ago. The trouble for INTC is that everyone is starting to figure out that when INTC say it's releasing a product it's talking about something 6 month to a year out.
You...
don't know about those. In the 486 days, I was an Intel investor. I came onboard AMD only after K7 was released.
Me...
Me too. Dabbled in AMD before K7, but had most of my semi investment in INTC. It was only after I saw the K7's tripple piped FPU that I thought AMD might be on to something. K8 only reinforced that idea.
You...
" Wouldn’t say Ruiz is completely immune to this
affliction."
Me...
It's no worse than the things Micky has said about AMD. I'm thinking about his statement about the maturity of AMD processors (bull shit), and the way Dell has played the AMD trump card to get lower prices from INTC.
I think DELL realizes that the one supplier model that was so successful for so long will not work so well in the future, hence the moves to copy the GTW model of selling home entertainment stuff etc.
Actually, I think that's the way to go as future entertainment is going to require more and more smarts, but staying INTC only is ridiculous.
Good question. There was some discussion about that issue awhile ago, but as I remember it we got tied up in semantics green field Vs addition.
It does seem that anything useful already in place would be an asset. As I remember it when fab30 was started they left room and designed for another fab. So there should have been some benefits, besides the generous German government financing, to build at Dresden.
I do hope this doesn't restart the new work Vs rework arguments
The secret is in the sauce "64 bits for free". Why buy a soon to be obsolete 32 bit processor when a dual 32/64 bit processor costs the same or less? Besides that the 32/64 bit processor is faster than the 32 bit heater from INTC.
Seems like a pretty simple decision to me.
I have a very hard time understanding you position. How do you reconcile your doubts about AMD with your opinion that AMD is a good investment? Frankly I have a hard enough time figuring what's real without having to listen to two voices in my head at the same time. Being able to see both sides is undoubtedly an asset but how does one go about reconciling such discordant views. Maybe it's a gift you have?
I think the non-recognition of AMD by the markets has more to do with the patina on the golden goose than anything else. AMD has too much baggage attached to it, including what you’re talking about, for the market to embrace AMD without hard evidence.
What I'm saying is that the evidence should start to appear this quarter, and be full blown by the end of the year. That evidence will in turn immunize AMD from whatever turn the cycle takes. A hard cycle turn might slow down AMDs growth, but not stop it for at least the next year and a half or so.
I admit to being an AMD optimist, but I also believe that optimism is firmly rooted in reality. I could never own a stock that I didn't believe in, unlike some of the posters on this board claim to own AMD. Personally, I don't see how any one could, it's kind of like lying to yourself and I don't do that very well.
I don't see it as either a one or the other decision. I see no reason why AMD can't bring up one line on 90nm since the equipment is usually backwardsly compatible, and as 65nm evolves bring up other lines. As far as costs go if AMD is profitable at 90nm in fab30 it should be very profitable at 90nm on 300mm with comparble percentages of good chips.
I hope your right, as I said the sooner the better, but I'm still leary that 65nm will be ready by the end of next year. AMD is going to be needing added production desperately by that time and a fall back plan wouldn't be a bad idea.
Undoubtedly we're talking high-end chips with small volumes of dual core processors, at least at first. Got to wonder how many people will be substituting 1 dual for 2 processors. Might not amount to much in the big scheme of things, but if a dual takes up significantly less die real estate than 2 processors it could have significant capacity implications for both AMD and INTC. Even if the difference is only 10% to 15%, when you add a lower total cost for things like chip sets and MoBos along with less total testing etc., dual chips could prove enticing from a strictly economic point of view.
These seem like a natural for AMDs HT. Talk about a path for easy scaling.
Fab36
One of the things concerning me is that 65nm may not be ready by late next year. Combine this with 300mm, even at an advanced state by that time, along with the usual problems of a new fab and I wouldn't be surprised if the equipment isn't brought up on 90nm and converted to 65nm at some time down the road.
It's not like AMD is going to need 65nm production capabilities at first anyway. 300mm on 90nm is going to provide a huge number of chips and it will probably take time for the markets to develop past fab 30s ability to supply.
"Ruin said Tuesday that AMD has started manufacturing chips on a 90- nanometer production process and will start shipping those parts for revenue in the third quarter. He added AMD will start installing equipment for its 300mm chip factory in Dresden, Germany, by the end of the year and plans to kick it into volume production next year."
Me...
Volume production next year seems a little too quick. I hope Hector is right, the sooner the better. There have been rumors that AMD is ahead of schedule with fab 36, but I'll be happy if full production commences at the begging of 06.
Originally they were saying samples late 05 and production early 06, I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Agreed, but given the stated position of notebooks in the upside down triangle of priority AMD is pushing, they seem under weighted, particularly in the T&L area when compared to desktops. I don't think that is going to change until AMD gets 90nm working and low power chips to the market.
Your living in the past.
It's no wonder AMD is taking so long to get into the notebook market, look at the lead times.
Them...
Wistron had won the HP order for a 15-inch MP4 notebook at the end of 2003, said the sources. The contract called for the company to begin monthly shipments of 20,000-30,000 units in October and continue shipments until the third quarter of 2005, the sources added. The model was supposedly aimed at the small enterprise and consumer market.
Me...
I wonder if this opens the door for AMD?
What I said was "One of the nice things about AMD is its relative new found immunity to the market cycle". Notice the word relative. Cycles are like cogs in a clock, some run in bigger circles than others, but as AMD becomes more dominant the effects of the cycles will become less pronounced.
Things are constantly in a state of flux. If you think I'm wedded to AMD forget it, I just look for opportunities and try to act accordingly. I had no problems selling AMD during the 2k washout when it became obvious that a very big, industry wide, correction was at hand, but I never lost sight of what was going on at AMD. All the way down I kept selling and buying back every time it looked like we might be reaching bottom. Trouble was that bottom was a lot farther down than I fathomed. Not to worry though everything worked out and I'm up about 3 dollars for every one I've invested in AMD. Not too bad for 5 years of very hard work.
The thing that again attracted me to AMD 5 years ago was the possibility that AMD could finally become a significant player in the development of the most significant technology of our time. I knew monopolies never last, for a thousand reasons, some of which we're seeing played out today. This is especially true of industries that are as fundamental as computer processors are to the way the world works today. Duopolies, on the other hand are a more stable form, especially if marginal players are included.
When I looked at INTC I saw the things we're seeing today in spaces. Namely, a company advanced in age and starting to suffer from poor management, lack of innovation, and an ill defined game plan. On the other hand when I looked at AMD I saw a company used to living on the edge, that constantly confounded its critics by its mere existence. With the Athlon, AMD finally had a chance to overcome what were admittedly long shot odds. The last 5 years have seen steady progress, even with some production setbacks. The addition of Hector to the management team was the final piece needed to propel AMD out of the "me too" existence that had marked so much of AMDs prior existence.
Today AMD has the better management, better products, better production processes and better corporate structure when compared to INTC.
For me we're in the 5th year of what I had always perceived as a 5 year turn around. Now is when things get golden.
Since the Earth still sucks I assume no force has repealed the laws of gravity. Same goes for the cyclical nature of the Semi business. The semis have always followed the rule that if it’s good, do it until it isn't. Fortunately it seems that the semi producers have gotten a lot smarter than they were in the mid 90's and the boom and bust cycles are getting less and less severe. 2k was a different situation brought about by once in a century conditions of demand.
In the latest cycle most of the semi producers, with the notable exception of INTC, have refrained from the capacity binges that plagued markets in the past. It remains to be seen if INTC was right and everyone else was wrong, but so far the extra capacity may have been a godsend to INTC considering the production problems they have had.
Any way, the point is that just through the act of the market thinking it has figured things out it has changed things. Another form of the Chaos theory? All I know is that things hardly ever work out the way the market figures and this time around will be no exception. There are just to many unknowns for someone to be placing bets today about what the semi market will be 6 months or a year from now.
Hindsight is better than 20x20 it's accurate so we'll have to wait and see if the market timers are right, but as far as AMD goes the cycle is becoming less and less important.
What AMD has always lacked, and INTC had, was critical mass, which lead to a steady customer base. That's not something that is going to be remedied over night, but as AMD starts to take more and more market share it will become less vulnerable to the cycle and like INTC produce profits come rain or shine.
Personally, I think we're on the threshold of an explosion in demand for smarts (processors), but that's another post.
LOL. Or maybe they could bronze it.EOM
You still don't get it; this is the new AMD. As far as I can tell INTC has its hands full just copying AMD anymore. That's not likely to change for at least the next year. After that the old coercion and monetary tactics might work, but given the technological lead AMD has now, it's going golden, at least for the time being. The only question is how many karats the gold is made of.
I'll grant you that in the short run AMD's ability to take market share is limited by its manufacturing capacity, but by the end of next year all that starts to change. At that time INTC better have better answers then than they do now or INTC is going to feel pain like it hasn't since the memory business days.
In the meantime having AMD running at full tilt is going to produce margins the company has never seen before. Given the recent info about Opteron sales in q1 I wouldn't be surprised if ASP's have gone up by $10 in q2. Money could now be much less of a problem for AMD; especially when flash is added into the mix.
Again, as far as I can tell the footing of both companies is becoming a lot more equal, which is something not talked about much, but should be a prime worry to INTC holders.
I'm sure the clowns, Barrett and Otellini, pray nightly that the market doesn't slow down. That would be much more of a problem for INTC than AMD, maybe resulting finally in the management clean up INTC desperately needs.
The name of the game for AMD has always been taking market share from INTC. Right now the market for processors is growing fast enough that INTC will probably retain its market share, for the time being. One can't help but wonder what the situation would be like if these weren't boom times. I guess INTC would just rent another of those slow boats to China, since the channels already appear to be bursting at the seams with P4s no one wants.
Actually, as far as counting chickens goes, I was thinking more along the line of golden geese. The problem for AMD is that the golden goose has this old patina on it that needs to be cleared away. The elbow grease has been applied now and this quarter we should finally see how gold glistens.
The problem for INTC is that you can't spit shine a turd.
Pathetic volume
Looks like a lot of the tech money has gone to the sidelines. It also appears that the same old story is in effect, namely, the generals are still fighting the last war.
Everyone seems to be so intent on not getting stuck when the down part of the semi cycle kicks in that they're staying away now when things are going great. Of course, their exclusion from the market just means that the cycle won't follow its usual course. At a minimum, it means that the price volatility won't be as extreme when the market does correct, and if the market continues upward for more than another 6 months, as I expect, they will be out in the cold. Oh well, a market timers dilemma.
One of the nice things about AMD is its relative new found immunity to the market cycle. AMD is going to rise or fall on earnings and its ability to take market share from INTC, plain and simple. To hell with the cycle.
Please, please no more.
Good point, but there are shorting costs, so probably not infinite. For the most part the CVB shorters aren't interested in the volatility of a stock like AMD. The reason they short is to cover to the down side. However, getting your money back so that you can place it elsewhere while still being able to clip you coupons does have a certain appeal.
A person that used to post on the RB board got some of the CVB's, I wish I had. Talk about getting your cake and eating it too. I doubt that I would have shorted the stock however.
AMD is in transition now with much of the market either in denial or still associating with the "old AMD". When the attitude switch occurs it will be fast and furious. A third quarter of increased earnings to the $.20 range should be the 2X4 needed to knock some sense into the market.