Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[bobs10]

There's not much that can be done about the first three buyers; they're going to keep on buying INTC. But it's the companies that stubbornly remain "INTC only" even in the face of superior AMD products and TCO that have me worried. I have a feeling that the process of turning those guys to AMD is going to be a very slow one.

Fortunately AMD doesn't need to purloin INTC's customers to be very successful. There's enough new business in the world that isn't committed to INTC and will evaluate fairly, that AMD should do very well. I would guess that no more than 10% to 20% of INTC's current business accounts would consider going with AMD unless INTC literally fell apart. To me that's a problem those customers will have to live with.

What I expect to happen in the foreseeable future is that AMD will increase market share while INTC remains relatively stagnant earnings wise. It's hard to see out even a year, but I expect the momentum AMD has built should be sufficient to carry it for a year or two no matter what INTC does. After that is anyone’s guess, but just looking at the companies relative to each other now, I think INTC has big problems that will cause the company to loose the dominant position it currently enjoys. On the other hand, as I've said, I expected AMD to be further along than it is now and INTC has proven much more resilient in the face of problems that would have doomed AMD long ago, so who knows?