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Bluefang - I heard your arguments
While I'm not a 100% taker in what you're saying, your opinion still matters. What doesn't really matter on this board is trying to argue your opinion to many who don't wish to debate it. So repeating it multiple times only brings more wrath.
If it is enough for you to know that when you write your opinions the first time that someone is reading them, and deciding for themselves whether they are credible or not, I will tell you that I read them and weigh them against the rest of the posts on this board.
When I disagree, I say why, but try not to carry on the disagreement until someone wins. That's not the objective! You can't change someone's mind that isn't open to your opinion. Therefore, you should throw your opinion out there, and leave it amongst everyone elses.
No conclusions necessary.
T123
kevin_S5 - I have a question about Steven's post. 'Or revenue projections are still the same'
What are these Wave revenue projections that Steven speaks of?
If I knew that, I'd sleep better at night knowing that he's put a performance hurdle out there for the company to meet. I thought revenue projections were to come after the third party validaters had some 1st quarter returns?
T123
Doma - you're not a peach all the time either. Neither am I. But I'm glad you could take at least one sentence out my post and put your own twist to it. You're whom I was speaking of.
T123
I can't believe that it is me that has to write this but here goes ....
For many of you, this investment has always been a 'Wave can do no wrong' addiction of sorts. To your credit, many of you have bravely defended 'Everything Wave' on every board you've ever been on. I say to your credit, because there were several people who tried (and continue to try) to place doubt in the minds of investors, and it was most of you who defended the cause admirably.
However, if some of you are willing to admit it, you've also over-defended at times, condeming even some of the more loyal of the longs opinions. Any contrarian view was usually met with a defensive posture, and an absence of accuracy, or truth. What Steven said this last week regarding cash-flow break even was not the end of the world. If you take it in context, Steven was merely stating that as both the market, and the opportunity/need expands, Wave will likely have to expand its burn rate and employee base to keep up with the increasing demand.
No big deal right? If you make the company, and your investor's some money while you're expanding then the Wave World is a happy place. We deserve it ~ right? We've waited patiently through all of this. We knew what we were getting into. We knew how long it took, and made the conscious decision to continue to invest, and support Wave management through the toughest of times, when good investors was what was needed the most.
What I think just happened was that many of you finally realized that CPA and others should have been asking these tough questions, and that our loyalty should not be blind. There was a clear play on words in Steven's last set of responses on the RB board. While he may have, in fact, felt that was his position all along, he did not even acknowledge why we would be a little disturbed at hearing 'cash-flow break-even' next year, and then hearing 'cash-flow break-even' in 2-3 years is more likely.
He knew what we were asking at the conference call, just like we knew what he was saying in this last meeting. And they clearly didn't match. While I don't expect humble, I wouldn't expect him to believe that we're going to believe that this was his meaning all along either. While I'm definitely willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, because it's tough answering questions on the fly as he so often does, I also want to take the opportunity to suggest that this kind of scenario is exactly why we should be embracing some of the tough questions that a CPA asks.
We should learn not to be so quick to dismiss concerns, and encourage them to come forward and be asked. It's Steven's job (as well as his management's) to prepare for these kinds of questions, know what he wants to say, and say what he means. What we just learned (I hope) is that we've been too complacent and accommodating in the CCs and SHMs. Although we can't prove it, many of us are feeling a bit strung along right now, and we have some uncertainty as to 'when' this investment may actually make us some money, and if we can believe what we hear.
That's the dose of reality we just realized, and should realize. Steven should also realize that he just turned a corner too. He is now going to be jusdged on his performance for the shareholders. All of the pieces are supposed to be in place. I'm not going to buy another need for healthy spend and R&D without revenues, increasing shareholder value, and a rising share price.
To that end, I'm not upset with what he said at all. Actually, I'm kind of glad this gap between actual commentary versus intended meaning occured, and was as wide as it was. Because it allows me to defend the tough questions. It allows me to highlight that people like CPA may not be as jaded, or bitter as some of you may think. He may just be a pretty smart man who should have the right to ask these tough questions, and not be considered an outcast on our board for being a bit more unsure than the rest of us.
I will close by saying that I think Wave is still a great investment. I beleive it will be everyhting I thought it could be when I first invested, and as I continue to invest. I also believe that Wave needs to make its shareholders some money before it begins to spout further R&D. R&D spending is fine for a product suite that makes money. More R&D spending without making some confirming revenues first IMO would be an even greater contradiction to what I've been hearing than what transpired last week. Performance is what Steven said is necessary, and perfomance is the standard he is being held to.
SHOW ME ~ Don't Tell Me
Tampa123
mmpneybgone - your post is wrong ~ period.
I have invested in this stock since 1998, and waited patiently for their product to get developed, the market to catch up, the OEMs to adopt, and Steven to finally be deploying product. For you to even be suggesting that greed is driving me is an insult to me, and many on this board.
Perhaps you should think before you post.
Should this one incident be blown as out of proportion as it has? Perhaps not. But neither should you be calling any of us greedy. Get a grip.
T123
Blue - well done.
Snack - you can private message it to me if you'd prefer. I can't respond that way (I'm too cheap) but I can read it.
Snackman - what's your take on the information shared here today?
thanks
T123
Pretty sneaky setting up shop over here and not inviting me.
Now I have options.
Regards,
Tampa123
Pardon my spelling errors
DWG - Great Post. But to anticipate a predictable response from the masses only serves to confirm some of your own thoughts. I'm glad that you've put your thoughts into an ancouraging perspective so quickly.
I'm not there yet. It's gonna take me a bit longer for me to get over Steven's very clear vision into the spending outlook, while the revenue outlook always needs a stronger lense.
How's that for honesty.
Thanks for posting it.
T123
Investing in the growth of the market is okay, and increasing the burn rate is okay under the condition that Wave has learned not to be all things to all people for a promise, and no contracts.
In order to increase the burn rate there must be a quantifiable and demonstrable return on the investment. While we may have built some significant relationships as we burned through $120+ million in the last investment into the market, there's no getting around the fact that the investors that have waited (mostly patiently) throughout would certainly like to see some return of their own.
Therefore, I do not feel (Steven) that you can simply continue the posture you've taken in the past where we kinow very little, and you seemingly know everything. We cannot continue quarter after quarter to hear how things are greater than they've ever been, momentum is building constantly, yet we keep spending money, making none, and diluting our investment.
Somewhere along the way you're going to have to square up with us and put us in the mode of seeing our stock price rise. To know everything else except this at some point in time would suggest that you are likely not focusing. You cannot expand your spending without a guaranteed return. Heck, we're all still waiting to see if your first go round of spending is paying off.
If the product is what it should be, then revenues should feed R&D at some point. When is that point? With what you know about the industry, its direction and your products (either in the market now, or planned) you ought to be able to make people give you signed contracts before you spend more money now.
It doesn't matter what customer's want if they're not willing to pay for it. If they are willing to pay for it, then let's see if they buy what you have first before we start the charge for the next generation products. If they don't buy the first generation, chances are the next generation is going to do just as well. Let's find ways to make money first.
I, for one think that your play on words regarding 1 million TPMs would equal 'today's burn rate' for a break even 'ceretis perabus' as if we should have understood all along that your intentions were to move that window out further, and stating so even before the first dollar of revenue has been reported, is highly inappropriate, whether you (Steven) think so, or not. While I can certainly understand the logic behind your comments, this ongoing spoon feeding of extensions is getting a bit old.
How great is great if the share price never rises consistently and predictably? How much money is necessary to spend before guidance on what can be made is also presented? If you're higher on our prospects now then you've ever been in Wave's history, then why can't you see that's the same thing you said for the last 3-5 years now.
Can you do something about this ~ probably not. Because that's the nature of a business with a product ahead of its time. Are we just getting a bit tired of the constantly extending roadmap, even though we're all probably intelligent enough to understand why it must be this way ~ probably so. Is there anything we can do about it ~ yes there is
I am going on record to say that I believe that you can still make money while you work to capture and maintain market share. If our product is as great as you and we all believe, then make some people prove it with their wallets. Constant one-offs and no revenues doesn't do my investment any good. Also, if the core product isn't good enough to make money, then chances are, their off-spring won't be either.
SHOW ME THE MONEY!
Back to quiet accumulation
T123
Between here and $1.72 would be a good place to add more now IMO. Buying in the 2s was too early, as I said before.
Regards to all,
T123
cpa - why?
cpa - that's the kind of terms you get when you deal with LendingTree.com
Just trying to brighten your day a bit. You're always so negative.
T123
What I think is the big surprise, is the next Wave of products that are coming right on top of the TPM, and that's the servers to manage the keys. If I were a betting man, and boy am I with this stock, I'd say that server news will emerge this year also.
The question is ~ who's server will it be?
T123
gregS and Doma - If IBM can seemingly deploy 4 million over the last quarter and a half (growing from 4 - 8 million deployed this year), then I see no reason why 10 million isn't do-able. I think it's a reasonable high-end number. Lower than 6-million would be didappointing, and higher than 10-million would indicate faster adoption, as Steven kind of predicts will occur.
So, we'll see
Alladinator - sounds like something Steven would pay for himself, just so he could write that catchy slogan
T123
To all on this board
At this point, I believe that almost all of us would agree that for Wave to not continue as a going concern is almost non-existent at this point. Which means that regardless of how many people sell their shares, they'll likely be many more who will buy them.
So I say, let them sell! More for me at lower prices. I'm not going to worry if person A has their shares, or person B. I'm only interested in my holdings. Since the company has proven relationships with big partners at this point, who buys and who sells is of little concern - generally speaking.
So bang away Blue, and HhH and I'll buy on the dips.
Have a blast.
T123
Bluefang - What's your purpose with all of this useless banter?
If you don't like what's going on ~ sell. Who's stopping you? Certainly not any of us.
Why are you trying to bait others into explaining something that should be dependent on you being able to make up your own mind?
Your certainly not going to convince anyone on this board that you know more than them with this nonsense. If you did know more, then you wouldn't be asking these questions.
I never asked for your opinion when I invested my money, and I don't see any reason to consider your opinions now. Nor should you consider ours.
Make up your own mind what you believe and then act on those opinions. Asking some on this board to justify their investments to you is a bit elitist, and shows a lack of respect IMO.
You've got your own mind --- use it!
T123
CPA - And here is what I wrote after the last SHM. (See Below)
Posted by: tampa123
In reply to: goinup who wrote msg# 8202 Date:8/28/2003 12:06:21 PM
Post #of 18739
Finread - Yes I can
A very interesting conundrum has surfaced. First, let me say that Wave feels all other players are still in the smoke and mirror phase of their product development, and that Wave could clearly assume the first mover position in Europe at almost any time. However, Steven's still trying to figure out if shipping finread compliant readers is in direct conflict (competitive) with Microsoft's upcoming solution.
In other words, is he 'potentially' putting himself in a position of competing with Microsoft in Europe, or even himself for that matter. He has not sorted this out yet. But he is trying to move to a mutually beneficial (and less costly solution) so that all parties are happy in the end.
This is a very interesting situation, and one that you may ask Steven to elaborate on further.
T123
If you apply this to your contradiction, this situation was brought up well before the last conference call. It was addressed, discussed, and appeared to be a plausable reason why the NEC statements that you refer to did not come to fruition as he initially stated. Again, these are forward-looking statements. Meaning, that things do change.
Therefore, you either choose to believe that they've changed for valid business reasons, or you choose to pursue the 'he lied' position. Well ~ you've already chosen, and it's fairly obvious that we're not going to convince each other to change our positions on the subject. So what now?
unfortunately for them, the outcome of the public dilution will also send a strong message of stability in financing to the investment community, and the stock price will likely rise immediately after the PR ---- Very dangerous game to play for a short in this tight of a trading range
djtherex - You write
Next CC we should report these earnings.which will be a major gain over any other quarter in the history of the company. That ought to be something to look forward to for us all.
I say - won't happen.
Maybe some of our loyal wavoids should listen the CC again. That's not what Steven said. So jumping on this band wagon a day after the call is going to lead to certain disappointment and ridacule when this doesn't happen next CC.
Learn to count the quarters. Next quarter is 4th quarter. Wait until the 1st quarter of next year and I'm with ya. Otherwise, your on your own with these 'likeley will not happen' prophecies.
T123
HhH - Listen to the call again.
I believe funding already gets them through 1st quarter. They simply want to close another round by EOY. But, thanks for posting (finally) that Steven was right about something.
T123
CPA - Well then ....
I understand your concern, and it's gonna be close.
Of course, you already knew that didn't you?
Hey, remember when all of those calls were purcased about 2 - 3 months ago. Were they to expire around the same time as yours?
T123
And another thing ...
I told you all after the SHM about the Finread conundrum. For those of you that missed it, here it is again.
Wave can deliver the Finread solution, but would have to create a proprietary Wave infrastructure solution in order to support the tightly coupled security solution that Finread wants. And then, along comes Microsoft and the NGSCB initiative. If Wave were to take the Finread bird in the hand, and deliver a prioprietary Finread solution, it would compete with the NGSCB/TPM solution currently being pushed by the TCG.
What to do? What to do? I can make money now in Europe, and piss off Microsoft and all of these partners that I've worked so hard with, or I can side with Finread, and deliver what I consider to be a more secure solution for Finread, but never flly realize my full revenue potential.
What to do? What to do?
I know! I'll try to convince the banks working with Finread, and clamouring for a solution to take a good hard look at what the NGSCB, Wave, Intel, NSM, IBM and others are doing, and try to convince them to try the NGSCB PC, embedded card reader solution that will emerge from TCG. If they like it, they'll probably get this solution quicker than Finread is moving anyway, and I (Wave) won't have to compete with myself, and lose business because of it.
Boy I'm smart ~ aren't I?
CPA - Is that true? Do you have some call options in 1H?
CPA I won't
CPA - If you have any shares ~ sell
If you don't ~ shut up now
And if you lost all of your original shares, because you believed, margined the heck out of yourself, and then lost your money ~ stop blaming the rest of us for it.
If you had a rental agreement with Wave, and they stiffed you ~ too bad.
Whatever thereason dude, you need to get off of this train. If you hate Wave and have no position, I'm here to state straight up that I'm not buying your song, so go peddle it somewhere else.
Bluefang and Bonnie - If you sell, then you'll have to live with that decision. As for the rest of you ~ own up to the fact that you all hyped the prospects of this quarter to deserve this, and please make it stop. Those of us realists who've been telling you all along to sit back and watch, and not make bold predictions are now telling you in stronger language. Knock off the world revolves around Wave.
I'd like to get back to quiet confidence as soon as possible now. I've put in my time, and my time is too important to waste on non-believers now. Let them say what they want. Let them do what they want. I'll just keep buying shares, because I listen to what's said, not what I want to hear.
Can you tell I've had a liquid lunch?
T123
You're all getting on my nerves now!
1) Wave told you all not to expect any numbers until next year. Did you all listen --- No! You all had to hype up expectations.
2) The negative commentary on this board has siezed your constant over-zealous predictions and outlooks and are now using them against you, and your only argument is, what Steven said in the first place, but you all decided to ignore.
3) Now you're trying to defend the conference call when you never really needed to in the first place.
Get a grip everyone. Things are good. Who cares what the naysayers say. Who cares what the disenchanted say (Bonnie, Bluefang). Stop blaming them for their opinions when you all set them up for these feelings in the first place. i.e.:
- Maybe news of financing will come tomorrow
- Wave should be able to give us guidance on this CC (even though they already said they wouldn't on the last CC)
Again and again, you're all your own worst enemies, and I can't read this crap anymore today. Stop pushing Wave up to undeserving expectations, and you won't be disappointed. It's as simple as that.
Steven said, the next 60 days will bring more significant information regarding take rates, guidance and etc..
Guess what? There's another conference call between now and then that you'll undoubtedly expect great financing arrangement, numerous OEM announcements (even though none were promised), and some WaveXpress news, even though Steven only described this vertical as the most promising in the near term. Of course, you will all make the near term this quarter undoubtedly, and skew expectations yet again.
Here's what I'm doing....
I'm ignoring the banter, the defensive postures, the egg on many of your faces, and the attacks by the ignorant and I'm continuing to quietly accumulate with the same confidence that I had after the SHM. For those that want to sell ~ sell. For those that think that this investment is taking too long to materialize ~ you're absolutely right! For those that think things are right on schedule ~ congratulations, because you'll be the rich people some day, when the rest of these people miss the party at both ends.
T123
CC as expected. Couple quick thoughts.
1. Wavoids sometimes their own worst enemies.
2. Feeds the naysayers with ammunition to beat you up for your optimistic predictions.
3. Quiet confidence better than board evangelist
4. Purposeful and steady accumulation still appropriate
5. Will see a pop with financing - if timing good, add Wave to your 2003 IRA and get a tax benefit at the same time.
6. Be smart enough to know that not much can be said.
7. I explained the Finread/Microsoft dilemma already after the last SHM.
Lastly -- Still a big Wave supporter. Like I said, relax until June 2004, and then let's see what you'll know then. In case you're dense, that means don't hype 4th qtr. expectations either.
T123
To me it seems like all of these 'so-called' failed relationships seem to find there way back around to Wave/WaveXpress when they're ready to resurface. Not when we think they should. So, it doesn't appear that all of them were screwed up by the CEO after all. IMO, I think we'll find that mostly all of them, in fact, weren't screwed up.
Just delayed.
T123
OT - To all
Does anyone on the board live in Austin Texas? After the Thanksgiving holidays, ol' Tampa has accepted a new position, and will be moving to Austin. However, I have no plans to change my alias to Austin123 ~ Oh be-have!
But, it would be nice to know that there may be other wave posters in the area.
T123
HhH - And yet you're still here.
I guess the debate really comes down to who's the smartest in the long run, doesn't it? However, it's not fair to debate that subject if you have taken no stand yourself.
You are very quick to point out the negatives, but resist the positives as if they were a virus. The truth is:
1. Wave has said that they were working with the big players, and that building these relationships would take time to build the right way ~ Now that these big players are beginning to acknowledge Wave (NSM, INTEL, others) you give Steven no credit for this. I'm sure that if he was as inept as you claim, he would have screwed these up by now too no?
2. Wave said they would be deploying product in the 4th quarter of this year, and that's what they're doing. I didn't see that credit given in your post of negatives.
3. The share price has gone up since the last quarter, fairly significantly. I always thought that market reaction to a bad CEO was downward movement of the share price ~ not upward.
4. And probably most important, if you ever attended an Economics class in your lifetime, you'd have heard of something called 'opportunity costs'. The amount of time that you've put in posting negatively against Wave, when you could have been doing something else, suggests that you too have now lost money on Wave, unless you're a paid basher.
So, I think the textbook example for opportunity costs would argue, that if you looked on the other side of the Production Possibilities Frontier had you opted to make shoes, instead of bashing Wave for over 1600 posts, you could have made an s-load of shoes by now, and probably made enough money by now to invest in Wave yourself.
T123
cpa - How many of those people that you hear things from have left the company of their own accord over the past 3-years. Now be honest please. Don't include those asked to leave due to down-sizing. Don't include those fired. Only those who had a job one day, and decided working for Wave wasn't for them, and resigned.
How many of those people that you've spoken to fall into that category, and what percentage of the company would that be. Then tell me how many of those who feel Steven's to blame for a lot of it are still working there, and give me some explanation as to why they're still there. The only answer to this question that you can't give, is that they're still there because it's been, or still is a tough economy out there in the job market.
Thank you in advance for your answers. This will help shed some light for me.
T123
HhH - I think it's already pretty clear what my choice is.
Blue - On this post, I'll simply agree with you. I understand your point, and think everyone else does as well. But to play Monday morning Quarterback during the two-minute drill is not the posture many of us care to take at this point.
With all that you've said, you still then recognize that we're currently in the throws of a wait-and-see scenario. The game is not over. Rather it is still on, and now we have a better chance than ever to win it. To push it along faster than it needs to go may leave too much time on the clock for the other guy to launch a comeback.
Without all of the football talk, the simple fact is you need to wait it out like the rest of us who don't chosse to second guess any longer. We choose to wait and see. And wait and see comes between now, and next July IMO ~ not right now.
T123
Weby - Booms post of this PR is (I suppose) testiment to the fact that Steven has been able to bring at least one major bank over to the other side, if you know what I mean.
This is big news IMO!
T123
Bluefang
The flaw in your stated opinions, and those of CPA's assume that Wave was in control of all of these situations, and that they somehow just didn't come through, even though the people, companies, partners (whatever) they were dealing with wanted them to make good on these promises.
Since I believe that we've already established that there are certain things that Wave is not in control of, and I believe that Wave states right up front in every CC that the statements you are about to hear are forward-looking, then you will have to judge for yourselves whether you believe Wave is to blame for these misses, or if the one's with the money delayed or cancelled the deliverable(s).
The truth is, it might be a little bit Wave's fault, a little bit their client or partner's fault, and a lot the market condition's fault. Percentages of blame are for you to decide. However, with almost 100% certainty, I could wager that they weren't Wave's fault in all situations, but don't know for certain. However, neither you, nor CPA, seem to be willing to give them any benefit of the doubt.
to that end, you'll likely never be satisfied with Wave's future outlook, until you can resolve its past performance. Personally, if you compare where PC security was in 2000, versus where it is today, I believe their progress and vision has been nothing short of remarkable.
I hope you see the light soon. Otherwise you may need to turn away from the light before it blinds you, because you're getting too close to it now.
T123
So, while
awk - that's the part we already know. The parts we don't know are who, and why.