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I am impressed with the new guidelines. I find them very balanced and reasonable. I try to adhere to the gist of them. Unfortunately too many posters are not trying just to move the stock price rather than entering into intelligent discussion.
Ecomike Is it relevant that the buys were at a pps not much above half the current pps? Almost 100% gain in a few weeks is hardly a convincing argument that buying shares at twice the pps of the insider buy is also a good buy.
The quote relates to another company but it would be relevant here too: "Now that their reports arent subject to SEC scrutinyy
Now that their financial reports dont provide investors recourse with the SEC." What recourse with the SEC do the shareholders of this company have? Normally companies are very cautious regarding what they report to the SEC. I have noticed over the years that it does not seem the same company when I read PRs and what is reported to the SEC.
TIO is now up 20% today at about $ 1.67.
cheusmann I don't remember that one but I notice the asked price has jumped to 9.5 cents.
cheusman TIO is up 15% right now today. We seem to be up here a bit as well.
I am back again buying today a limited stake of 53,000 shares. I still take it almost for granted that this company is a scam. I would not be surprised at all if I lose everything. But I regard it as more likely than not that there is a real business which is much smaller than the published numbers. I normally go for high risk/high reward and this gamble therefore has some attraction.
shifty Trust or no trust: The crucial point is: How will the stock price move in the future? I have a feeling that my approach is different from that of others. My approach is: What is currently a fair stock price based on fundamentals?
Iran and Saudi-Arabia are now on much better terms than in the past. Otherwise I think your reasoning is sensible.
Ecomike Some of the things you mention are credible arguments that uplisting will be a positive factor for the pps, but how big the effect will be remains to be seen. I question the truth of the two last points: "7) There will be more routine news, analyst articles once it is on Nasdaq, bringing more eyes to the stock. Real IR person and or team will get hired...to get the story out...
8) Energy stocks are always hot and popular."
0
Ecomike Actually I think this is a very good post. These are positive factors.
modes Stocks are priced in relation not to past earnings per share but anticipated earnings per share over the next few years. Very fast-growing companies may have a market cap 100 times their profits. If profits are expected to decline a lot a company may have a market cap that is lower than past profits if net assets per share are low. What is crucial in relation to BDCO is what earnings per share that is most realistic looking say 5 years ahead if this company trades on NASDAQ. Nobody knows the answer. My guess is between one and two dollars per share, but I don't think the upside is much above 2 dollars. Unexpected events may occur but the market will adjust to that event fairly fast in most cases.
gosox I agree with you.
downthehatch
I must admit that I am disappointed in the depth of your reasoning. Nobody questions that the world will need oil and gas for a while. New oil refineries are even being built in certain parts of the world.
"Better to keep one's mouth shut and be thought an idiot, than to open it and remove all doubt." The context suggests that you refer to me. I have a law degree and master's degree in the humanities in the country I live. I performed better than some 96% of those who passed these exams. In law there were 14 days with exams lasting from six to 10 hours. It would be ludicrous to refer to me as an idiot. A psychologist guessed that I had an IQ of about 135 based on my performance at the university.
aandt Total stockholders' equity negative to the tune of about 4.4 million dollars even if intangible assets account for as much as 2.7 million dollars. Not loss dowen a bit compared with the preceding year at about 2 million dollars. Revenues also down slightly.
gosox I suggest you read my replies to Mike and then state if you are equally impressed by the content of his post.
Ecomike "Nasdaq Up list will be huge catalyst, increasing volume and liquidity." I doubt this will be the case. This is a company in a sunset industry rather than a sunrise industry, Future prospects are dim rather than rosy. There is no realistic reason to expect growth in earnings per share. There is rather in my view a realistic risk that earnings per share will decline.
Ecomike "We have 5 quarters of rising net profits, with Q-1 being a knock out and folks look at 52 weeks earning, back wards looking for pricing stocks."
Net profits have been very volatile in this period. Early on in the period net earnings per share were not much below a dollar per share. They then dropped to a bit more than 40 cents per share. The first quarter had warnings per share of $ 1.12 as far as I remember. In the quarterly report the reahsoigh n was explained: hich crack spreads. At the end of February they were generally 35 dollars per barrel. Now they seem to be about 20 dollars per barrel. Taking into account expenses of about 15 dollars per barrel it would seem realistic to expect earnings per share of less than 30 cents per share for the second quarter in my view. Time will show.
Ecomike "All it takes is for one large refinery to go off line for any reason to spike fuel prices..." This could happen but for it to have much effect on the stock price it would have been an advantage to be an otc-company where traders who have little understanding of fundamentals dominate. There is a surplus of refining capacity in the world and any spike in fuel prices can be expected to be short-lived.
NASDAQ-investors are more sophisticated generally and pay less attention to temporary occurrences.
Ecomike "There are Bio-techs and other stocks out there with no revenue and cash burn with higher stock prices and MCs than BDCO, and the FED is going switch directions on Interest rates later this year, and a new bull market has started."
You are certainly correct tha there are Bio-techs and other stocks with no revenue and cash burn with higher stock prices and market caps than BDCO. The simple reason is that stock prices are based on the expectation of future profits. A case in point I remember from the 1980s was Genentech. It had no and next to no revenue and the market cap was at least severel hundred million dollars. In a few years the market cap was way higher based on realities. There was very fast growth in revenues and profits that justified the past high market cap,
The problem of BDCO is that there is no realistic expectation of rapid growth for BDCO earnings per share in the future because BDCO operates in a sunset industry.
Ecomike "The debt reduction has been on going monthly, the debt has already been restructured out farther and at good rates, taking any short term debt risk off the table." Generally this is a valid point that justifies a substantially higher stock price than what was justified when the finanial position of BDCO was precarious.
The point is however that this improved financial position has alreade been reflected in the stock price being up by more than 1,000 since its low in the last couple of years. Net assets per share now about one third of the stock price. For this sort of company net assets areimportant when it comes to a fair stock price.
Ecomike "Also missed is the Ecomike-factor, the one who brought so many non posting new buyers to the stock, very quietly.. with no news.. " What is this factor referring to? Ignorant stock speculators who are unable to assess the realism of what you assert? Please explain!
Ecomike
"Also the risk of a shooting war or cold war with China, cutting off fuel supplies to the west."
There is a risk of a shooting war with Chihna looking several years ahead. But will the market anticipate such an eventuality several years before there is a significant risk that it will happen? How much fuel does China provide the west with??? (lol) Why would a war between China and Taiwan cut off oil supplies to the West even if the USA participates such a war? The USA has a long-term friendship with Saudi-Arabia.
Ecomike
"What is also missing in their BDCO analysis of the need for institutions to buy BDCO shares once it up lists to Nasdaq (which is underway) and hedge funds buying in advance of that."
Could you please provide documentation that institutions (which institutions?) have a duty to buy BDCO shares if BDCO uplists to NASDAQ! I have tried to find evidence of this sort of obligation and failed. Will investors in NASDAQ stocks be interested in buying shares in a sunset industry? How many shares do you expect that the institution will be forced to buy even if they don't want to?
Will hedge funds bother to buy shares in this inancial minnom?
Ecomike Yours is one of the most inane posts I have ever seen. It looks as if the market disagrees strongly with your very impressive reasoning today. Roughly 30,000 shares have traded when I write this. At least some shareholders seem to be moved by the facts I have presented. They sell shares while the pps is doing the opposite of rising.
Thanks gosox. This stock looked very cheap last year. I am unable to predict the future pps. I don't attach much importance to the fact that the person who owns the bulk of the company buys a few more shares.
gosox
The financial improved substantially during the calendar year 2022. These numbers relate to net assets for 2022 and 2021:
"TOTAL STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY (DEFICIT)
10,588
(23,627 )"
It improved another some 20 million dollars during the second quater to about 34 million dollars. Assuming 17 million shares net assets would seem to be about 2 dollars per share at the end of the first qarter. This means that the company no longer seems to be in a stressed financial position. But the net asset backing per share is only a third of the stock price at a pps of 6 dollars per share. This means that the net assets represent no good reason to pay more than 6 dollars per share. This is not a company that can anticdipate much growth. Therefore the net asset backing is quite important when it comes to what is a fair stock price.
modes What you post here explains why BDCO did a very good first quarter which was much better than I had expected. RD has stted that he thinks expenses of refining the crude amount to about 15 dollars per barrel. Let us assume that is correct. It would result in pre-tax profits of about 20 dollars per barrel at the end of February. A crack spread of about 20 dollars per barrel for diesel and jet fuel now would result in pre-tax profits of about 5 dollars per barrel, which is 25% of the pre-tax profits in the first quarter. Moreover, in the second quarter the refinerey did not have full production. Earnings per share were as far as I remember somewhat above 1 dollar per share in the first quarter. The earnings per share in the second quarter could based on the above facts be expected to be less than 25 cents per share.
modes Here are the crack spreads of jet fuel based on what the market expects:
"JUL 2023
JFCN3
-
-
23.050
-
-
-
0
18:20:17 CT
13 Jul 2023
AUG 2023
JFCQ3
-
-
21.790
-
-
-
0
18:22:00 CT
13 Jul 2023
SEP 2023
JFCU3
-
-
21.740
-
-
-
0
18:20:42 CT
13 Jul 2023
OCT 2023
JFCV3
-
-
21.610
-
-
-
0
18:20:36 CT
13 Jul 2023
NOV 2023
JFCX3
-
-
21.100
-
-
-
0
18:21:12 CT
13 Jul 2023
DEC 2023
JFCZ3
-
-
20.860
-
-
-
0
18:20:54 CT
13 Jul 2023
JAN 2024
JFCF4
-
-
20.910
-
-
-
0
18:21:48 CT
13 Jul 2023
FEB 2024
JFCG4
-
-
20.820
-
-
-
0
18:20:49 CT
13 Jul 2023
MAR 2024
JFCH4
-
-
20.670
-
-
-
0
18:22:03 CT
13 Jul 2023
APR 2024
JFCJ4
-
-
20.620
-
-
-
0
18:22:16 CT
13 Jul 2023
MAY 2024
JFCK4
-
-
20.470
-
-
-
0
18:20:22 CT
13 Jul 2023
JUN 2024
JFCM4
-
-
20.500
-
-
-
0
18:21:34 CT
13 Jul 2023
JUL 2024
JFCN4
-
-
20.600
-
-
-
0
18:21:28 CT
13 Jul 2023
AUG 2024
JFCQ4
-
-
20.700
-
-
-
0
18:21:16 CT
13 Jul 2023
SEP 2024
JFCU4
-
-
20.840
-
-
-
0
18:20:18 CT
13 Jul 2023
OCT 2024
JFCV4
-
-
20.850
-
-
-
0
18:21:44 CT
13 Jul 2023
NOV 2024
JFCX4
-
-
20.740
-
-
-
-
-
shifty It is a handicap to be smart if morons decide the stock price.
Ecomike You would have been right if you had predicted a sharp rise in the stock price in the near future. An explosion of the stock price lasting a couple of hours was not what you predicted. At the closing the pps had largely come back to what it was at the opening. What is interesting to investors is what the profit will be during the second quarter and the effect it will have on the stock price.
RD "Snow has probably told you much the same today." What mattered most in my posts was information I copied after having googled some sources regarding the status quo regarding current refinery capacity now and in the coming years in the USA and in the world.
downthehatch
I am almost 81 and I have been in the stock market since 1970. I don't blame you for anything! I think you provided us with what looked like a very good tip and I am grateful for such tips. I hardly ever invest just because somebody has recommended a stock. I make up my own opinion. I listened to a CC and found that mostly convincing. I paid attention to the name of the auditor. I bought and sold a significant number of shares in TIO at a profit of almost 200%. My big mistake was to sell shares in TIO and to buy shares in the other company when that looked a good idea. I did not pay attention to the possibility that there could be good reasons for the stagnant pps of the latter company. I was not as risk-averse as I should have been.
Otherwise I agree with much of you write. I remember the great enthusiasm for some companies producing products that enabled electronic communication around the year 2000. It may well be that oil refineries are now too cheap. But I still think that a pps of 40 dollars for BDCO is absurd. I see that waiting about a day and night in selling my BDCO I could at best have made a 100% profit instead of 50% profit. But I suspect the high of the day to have been a fluke. The real test will be when the numbers for the second quarter are filed in about a month.
Ecomike
"I am shocked at the lame attempts to get us to sell." I sold my 2,000 shares before any possible attempt at trying to get others to sell shares. I am not interested in buing shares after reading the googled information I have provided. If anything shocks me it is the very lame arguments adduced in trying to persuade speculators to buy shares in this stock at the current pps.
not2-Wise
"Sounds more like Woke Economics." Please explain! Who is not too wise?
downthehatch
I have told you before. On your recommendätion on this board I sold a lot of shares in this company to buy a big stake in TMNA. This stock was accused of being a big swindle and the pps plummeted from a pps of more than 30 cents to a low of less than 4 cents.I had a big loss. I bought back 2,000 shares from the money I received. I sold 1,000 shares yesterday and another 1,000 a few minutes after the opening this morning at a 50% profit. The money was invested in sunrise AI companies instead of in this sunset company. I also bought shares to the tune of 6,000 dollars in the same companies after I sold my TMNA shares. I am up a little less than 20% in those stocks. I try to use my brain. I have written several posts very recently that reflect my assessments. I encourage you to counter my reasoning.
Ecomike "Nasdaq up list of BDCO coming!"
This is a stock for clueless traders when it comes to fundamentals. NASDAQ is a trading platform for investors and sunrise industries like AI and not for sunset companies like BDCO.
u
Ecomike
Check PBF Energy! Your shares in BDCO are for sale at a pps of 40 dollars. A much bigger company in the sector trades at a p/e of 1.57. Assuming BDCO will have earnings per share of 3 dollars this year (which is optimistic it seems to me) and the p/e ratio is the same the pps would be 4.71 dollars. That is a far cry from 40 dollars. But I see a poster thinks you have a very good analysis. I disagree.
"Ratios & Margins PBF Energy Inc.
All values updated annually at fiscal year end
Valuation
P/E Ratio (TTM) 1.57"
Ecomike "Gulf hurricane season threats to non Texas/Houston coast states will run fuel prices up.." This may be relevant for traders but short-term price fluctuations are hardly of much relevance to investors.
"Are US refineries running at capacity?
Basic Info. US Utilization of Refinery Capacity is at 91.10%, compared to 92.20% last week and 95.00% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 89.63%.30. juni 2023"