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OK, just started building shorts in:
ERTS
MSFT
AMGN
DELL
ATO
AMZN
A profit is a profit. Now you're talking. Just exited long QQQs in the 20.80s (long under 20).
Tony, I really don't like any of those stocks except maybe CSCO at under 8 but as an alternative, I'd suggest trading QQQ - it's what I trade 80% of the time and it has been good to me - over time it represents the best stocks in the NAS and has great volume so is easy to trade.
We may go down to 1000 or a little less but we're getting close to a low so now's not the time to capitulate - that's what everyone wants you to do so they can take your money.
If you own those stocks already, sell them all and get 100% cash. Put 25% in QQQ tomorrow, if NAS goes to 1075, put another 25% in, at 1050, another 25%, and at 1000 another 25%.
If it goes up don't buy more and just take your profits after every let's say 50-100 NAS points. Keep repeating this process as the market gyrates.
This type of strategy has been working for me well this year on the up and down side.
Ready, Set, 2:22
In regards to Zeev's calls being wrong or early, or late, they're one of the best sources of information available and remember you can always listen to your broker who has probably been telling you to dollar cost average in since NAZ 5000.
Anyway, bought a bunch more QQQs this morning in the $19.80s and had to disappear for the day. Before I left, I put a sell in at $20.55 for half my total position and lo and behold it hit. I thought there was enough good news to get us a brief rally here and believe we may get some more intraday up opportunities tomorrow but do believe the bear will come back hard due to earnings misses and lowered guidance (all the analysts are getting the heads up and lowering expectations for everyone (see CSCO today) so the news isn't as hard to take so by the time the earnings arrive we may be "priced in" so be careful shorting here).
Still think NAS 1000 is in the cards soon - if we don't get all the way there with Q3 earnings we probably will with Q4.
I believe there is enough good news today to have a sustainable relief rally. Pepsi beat, other companies beat for as many that missed, and hope that Bush solves the dock workers situation temporarily should be more than enough to move up and stay up today.
Good morning Zeev. What do you make of today? I notice the futures are up but backing off a bit from their highs of a couple hours ago. Eurostocks hanging on to small gains.
Thanks Zeev.
I bought qutie a few QQQ here at the end of day under $20. Now that's a strange feeling buying QQQ under $20. VIX close to 50 as well. We're getting close to a decent bounce (needs to happen this week before the big earnings hit next week).
Hopefully Bush won't screw things up too bad tonight or at least people will get over it by the morning and we can bounce. No economic news until Thursday so baring any horrible earnings warnings (which could happen) we may get some relief.
I'm still at around 65% cash but I'm rarely below 50% cash anyway - at least not until we're out of this bear.
Zeev, when was the last time you were below let's say 40% invested (i.e. 60% cash or higher)?
Thanks.
Augieboo, you saved me quite a bit of time by posting these charts as quick as you did - thank you very much.
I think at the end of the day you and Hamilton are agreeing somewhat and if the SPX/VIX ratio gets close to 10 (we're at around 20 right now as you correctly point out) I think we can safely use that as a major long indicator (not the only one but a pretty reliable one).
That combined with Zeev constantly pointing out to us that "all this market needs is any bit of good news and we can get a nice rally" combined with a very high level of bearishness portends a bear rally but not a new bull market until we get these awful earnings (that are coming) out of the way for at least Q3 and probably Q4.
I have been mostly short this year as a disclosure.
http://www.zealllc.com/2002/ratios.htm
Here's the Hamilton article referred to earlier. It's a good read and a big bounce should happen soon. However the NAS could easily go below 1000 first. I'm slowly getting long playing for a short term bounce here and will then unload all longs on any kind of decent bounce as I think next week could be a doozy with some serious earnings misses. If we get to 1000 I will become "clown long" over a period of days or weeks and probably hold for a few months for that 30-50% bounce.
I believe Q3 earnings will be very bad across the board and Q4 will be pretty flat with Q3 with a chance of still worsening and little chance of improving. This statement is across the board for tech companies.
I was fully loaded long earlier this week and sold at QQQ 22 yesterday and am now 100% cash. Very happy to take the chips off the table. Any bounce to close to 1300 I will short and actually hope it happens soon before earnings warnings start rolling in (and they will big time).
On the down side, I hope for a capitulation and real fear takes us down to close to NAS 1000 for a nice long buy and hold opportunity.
Outside of those extremes, capital preservation is key as we are hovering in "no man's land."
No rate cut is good news. We will rally, especially tomorrow - barring any nasty after market news.
Unchanged.
Weakness in IBM in last hour. Anyone know why? Seems like a decent time to take a flyer on them with a tight stop under 60.
Hard to believe it's the Morgan Stanley pension concerns from this morning but may be.
In at 60.77.
Zeev, do you think we take out 1192 today before a bounce?
tia
Zeev, sorry if you already answered this some time ago but on a related note, how do you measure a "position" or "double position"? What is your average size trade (in number of shares) - feel free to abstain from answering this if too personal a question but I'm asking to get a perpective on your response to Da Chief's grammar school mate, Ballistic. I always trade 1,000 share or greater blocks. And on something like QQQ I can easily go 5,000 or 10,000 shares at a time and rarely worry about not getting a good price but something with less volume like a CCMP for instance, I will put in orders of 1-3K at a time.
Thanks.
Couldn't agree more here. I've been "off the brokers now for 2 years" and I'm proud to say I'm doing quite well. See the movie "Boiler Room" - believe it or not, I actually think it's too tame for what really goes on with these morons (my apologies to the former brokers here).
These guys are still paid to push stocks with ulterior motives (investment banking relationships, etc.)and the ones that aren't are so scared to make any recommendations that they pass on wonderful words of wisdom such as "I would dollar cost average into a mix of growth, Int'l, bonds, etc" which isn't a bad strategy but why should I pay one of these clowns to regurgitate Investment 101.
If you have enough to invest, the good Hedge Funds are by far the best thing going right now along with people like Zeev and a very small handful of others that are probably better than most guys running BILLION DOLLAR MUTUAL FUNDS OR PENSION FUNDS!!!!!
I held the Q overnight as well (including IDPH which I bought quite a bit of from 40 down to 39 with an avg of about 39.5). Bought tons of QQQs at the close as well.
So far, looks like QCOM news is helping an after hours bounce into tomorrow even with slightly worse COMS news offset by generally decent earnings in early tech announcements.
Zeev, will you hold Q (bios and normal) overnight (opex coming)or bail? What % cash are you EOD?
Thx.
Zeev, nice exit on CCMP - could you comment on my original post regarding ACN and EDS if / when you get a chance?
Thanks.
Zeev - ACN and EDS. I am more interested in entering ACN as it goes down in sympathy with EDS as I don't believe ACN has the same issues EDS has. From a Technical Standpoint, can you advise on a good entry point?
While EDS looks fairly broke, do you think an almost 50% haircut is overdone?
Thanks for any thought on these two consulting companies.
What will we all do without you?
Actually, sounds like you need it. Enjoy your vacation and come back rested and happy.
...Bush is a Godly man. If Clinton would have been he wouldn't have had so many acts of adultery. How can a kid look up to that kind of leader? Sorry about talking about politics and God, but I had to say something about that comment."
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Priests are godly men Tony - you think kids are looking up to them these days? Politics and Religion all in one post - nice work!
Please lighten up LG. I for one believe your input is very valuable. I can also tell that you are a very staunch BUSH supporter as you seem to get very angry when comments are made in that area. By reacting so negatively you become just as political as someone like Zigi. Why don't you just put guys like Zigi on ignore?
Factory Orders and ISM Services both below expectations:
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html
Just to refresh your memory of what the "old zigi" sounds like (from just a week ago):
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"You folks just don`t get it!
In my last post I said we should fluctuate between 1350/60 and 1400 until 11 th of sep.
I still give a fall below 1350
%10 chance and below 1300 %5
After the 11th or even just before we should establish ourselves safely above nasdaq 1400 and dow 9000 and have a rally to 1500 and then 1575/1630 until and including oct
after oct either we sink to nasdaq 1000/800 or possibly rise to nasdaq 2000 and dow 11,000 ish(if we have better numbers)
How can so many of you keep getting it wrong,so much conversation here and so little result
good luck
anyway
you need it"
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We're all looking forward to the "new zigi" and how about a few less Monday Morning Quarterback predictions?
SOX just turned positive - finally. Let's see if this is the juice necessary to make my little daytrade effective.
"I blame analysts for the current decline."
Just be careful about getting married long or short. We can't will the market up or down and it's dangerous to cloud your view in an effort to have it go your way.
I went very long at around 1260 and kept buying more all the way down to 1192. Each day hurts because you keep watching your account go lower and lower but you have conviction that it will turn so keep buying at better prices. I sold all those longs that day the nas went up around 50 points and the DOW 300 or so - around NAS 1330. I made around 10% on this run. I immediately went short at NAS 1330 at the end of that day and kept short more all the way up through NAS 1425 having conviction it would turn back down. I covered all of my shorts today when we bounced from 1320 and am now 100% cash again. That run garnered me about break even and I think I'm going to gather my thoughts here on the next move before jumping in again. However, I believe has worked best to average into positions, especially when you may have been early as the return when it corrects can be handsome. Although this takes brass you know what to do...
Zigi, you seem to be looking for a fight here, not just a productive debate which is really the style of this thread. There are plenty of threads on Yahoo that will meet your needs - I just don't think you will find it here.
So if you wish to stay here and be taken seriously, please tone down your defensive posture. Most posters here aren't seeking great accolades from the safety of their computer - most posters are not just "looking to be right."
This is one of the last sites where you can actually learn from each other vs. sift through 90% garbage before you find the nuggets of value. Please help us keep it that way.
Respectfully submitted.
I heard excerpts of Cheney's speech today. I believe this puts us one step closer to some sort of war as we increase the steadfastness of the "remove Saddam" crusade. This would probably cause a short term pullback in the markets and if it goes like the Gulf War perhaps a steady rise after the initial fear.
Anybody else watching that dollar drop precipitously as we speak? I didn't expect this and am wondering if it continues or gets corrected in a PPT ramp that could start in about 4 hours. Thoughts?