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Strong Start Could Mean an Up Year
By Joseph Lisanti, Editor, The Outlook
January and February both outpace average gains only about one-third of the time. When they do, the market usually ends the year higher.
The first two months of this year both saw gains in the S&P 500 that were above average. If history is a guide, that augurs well for stocks in 2004.
Over the last 76 years, stocks posted an average gain of 1.5% in the first month of the year and an average loss of 0.1% in the second month. This year the index rose 1.7% in January and 1.2% in February. The “500” has beaten its historical performance in both January and February on 24 previous occasions. In 21 of those periods, the market finished the full year higher. The three times it finished lower were the Depression years of 1930, 1931 and 1937.
When both January and February outpace the historical performance for those months, the full year tends to have outsized moves. In 23 of the 24 years, there was a double-digit percentage change for the year. In 16 of those years, the gain or loss was 20% or more. Only in 1987, when returns were penalized by the October crash, did the “500” experience a single-digit percentage move, a gain of only 2%.
The average annual gain in the 24 years that January and February were stronger than typical was 14.9%. Of course, averages can mask huge variances. The biggest gain, a surge of 45%, came in 1954. In contrast, the 47.1% loss in 1931 remains the largest one-year decline in the history of the S&P 500.
Assuming the average gain for a year in which the first two months were strong, the S&P 500 would end 2004 at about 1278. But that may be a bit aggressive. Standard & Poor’s is maintaining a yearend target of 1230 for the S&P 500 index. And we do expect some bumps along the road to higher stock prices.
We advise 50% of investment assets in U.S. stocks, 15% in foreign equities, 10% in bonds and 25% in cash and short-term instruments.
One napper is enough at my job dave ...lol
good nite all~~
ok....here is my worst trade of the year.(hope thats my last one)
I got in edll 1.45 and 1.02 ....closed at .57 ...lol...?
THAT'S WHAT I GET FOR JUMPING ON A STOCK WITH OUT DOING ANY DD.!!
ok.......
Over 1000 bucks out of my pocket ain't no way to start a week.
But....It's ok
I'll make that back....gonna have to some scalping ...tommorow
OR I'll just do revenge buy on it....
well.....that sounds easy...lol
lol...Dave
Talk about nap,I took a nap(at my job) at 3 this afternoon...woke up at almost at 10.lol
Did some work and just got home.
HYPD moving nicely with fridays news,
also todays news.
volum good.
missed IDGE buy at .007 I'll wait and see...eom
IDGE at support
just got up...lol.... Dave still holding QBID ?
I'm hearing that ..this week we gonna get some news?
I'm still holding
IBZT(vkb)on Regis show ??
I'm still holding my free shares from.0026
Posted by: PappaJohn
In reply to: sdtke272 who wrote msg# 2979 Date:3/7/2004 4:05:19 PM
Post #of 2983
scot, re: vkb on Regis
Laporte will be on Regis show 9 Mar. VKB?????
http://boards.go.com/cgi/livewithregis/request.dll?MESSAGE&room=upcoming&id=1882
" Tuesday, March 9, 2004
The week continues when Regis and Kelly welcome OMAROSA, recently fired from "The Apprentice", actress MARIA BELLO, talking about "Secret Window" and LEO LAPORTE is here with the latest in technical gadgets."
Leo Laporte is a regular guest. No specific mention of VKB found....but.....??????????
As "dman21" posted on the 3rd (#msg-2516294), "20 million people might see VKB on Regis 3/9"
stockprowler picks LRCM ...
HYPD...news out after market friday.
I'm holding for longterm....waiting to hit a jackpot.lol
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040305/55456_1.html
Press Release Source: HyperDynamics Corp.
HyperDynamics' SCS Reports Excitement with Emerging Positive Results of Seismic Processing
Friday March 5, 4:00 pm ET
Geoscientists Report 25 New Locations Believed to be Gas Seeps on the Sea Floor Offshore Guinea
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 5, 2004-- HyperDynamics Corp. (OTCBB: HYPD - News) announced today that their wholly owned energy subsidiary SCS Corp.'s continued reprocessing of the 2D seismic acquired in late 2003 is on schedule at Spectrum Energy and Information Technology Inc. Significant information is emerging to support the viability of previous targets and the ongoing work is continuing to reveal many new targets. As the processed data is emerging and interpretation continues, the exploration team's excitement continues to grow.
When asked to comment, Neil Moore, president of SCS, stated, "Bob Bearnth and Dr. Hong both agree that the latest processed data confirms that numerous surface seeps over the concession have not only created physical anomalies on the sea floor, but show conditions that indicate there are gas plumes in the water. We believe this is indicative of the presence of hydrocarbons." He further stated, "From the new seismic we have recently pinpointed 25 additional indications of gas seeps spread out over the concession as we continue to map locations of potential drilling targets. Visible breaks in the sea floor associated with acoustic reflections in the water and fault chimneys that include adjacent charging sediments altogether support our interpretation for these gas seeps. We have also correlated these new points of interest with fault lines previously revealed in satellite photos covering prospective areas. This new information together with previous AVO analyses performed by Dr. Hong strongly indicates the existence of gas. There is now strong merit in performing the necessary work to gather physical evidence in proof of our interpretation. We look to achieve this very soon."
Kent Watts, chairman and CEO, said, "Previously obtained evidence of hydrocarbons is being corroborated and enforced as new potential drilling targets are emerging almost daily. As we are continuing to receive the necessary financial support, we could not be happier with the interpretive results of our data thus far and can't help but be overwhelmingly optimistic about the future."
About HyperDynamics
HyperDynamics is a provider of integrated information technology services. HyperDynamics' wholly owned subsidiary, SCS Corp., develops geophysical data services for the oil and gas industry including its integrated SCS NuData(SM) services while its No. 1 focused priority is exploring and developing new regions of Africa for energy production.
Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: The statements contained herein that are not historical are forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, certain delays beyond the company's control with respect to market acceptance of new technologies or products, and other risks detailed in the company filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
HyperDynamics Corp., Houston
Kent Watts, 713-353-9400
kent@hypd.com
or
Stock Enterprises
Jim Stock, 702-274-5400 (Investor Relations)
stockenter@aol.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: HyperDynamics Corp.
MSHI..
lets see if MSHI could break 52week high of 3.45.
I didn't like fridays trading... I'm holding longterm.
Nick59,PieSky and all...Thank you for understanding. eom
I apologize to the board....
I should'nt post jokes on board..while its trading hours.
sorry about that.
getting bored...going out..joke for ya
Greed & Fear
A husband and wife were having dinner at a very fine restaurant when this absolutely stunning young woman comes over to their table, gives the husband a big open mouthed kiss, then says she'll see him later and walks away.
The wife glares at her husband and says, "Who the hell was that?"
"Oh," replies the husband, "she's my mistress."
"Well, that's the last straw," says the wife. "I've had enough, I want a divorce!"
"I can understand that," replies her husband, "but remember, if we get a divorce it will mean no more shopping trips to Paris, no more wintering in Barbados, no more summers in Tuscany, no more Infiniti or Lexus in the garage and no more yacht club. But the decision is yours."
Just then, a mutual friend enters the restaurant with a gorgeous babe on his arm.
"Who's that woman with Jim?" asks the wife.
"That's his mistress," says her husband.
"Ours is prettier," she replies.
NWIS nice going
75072 belive it or not that is above average volum.
let me see $6 today.!!!
market can't decide...up and down...
And thats the way I like it.
good day to trade..imo
PAVP bought some again at .0131 eom
NWAV I have a felling we gonna get some news on this...
just my felling that is...
NWIS doing ok...like to see more volum tho..
volum low on over all...
I'm holding
getting killed on UVCL
lucky I only have very small amount....but it hurts...lol
SIRI comming back down from HOD...
It went up on kind of b/s news...
still holding.
out ICGE at .42 from .37
still holding small amount....just in case...lol
I've been trying to buy CMKM pos
at .0001....for long time....just got filled...uhmmmmm
5mil shares for lottery ticket ?? lol
CMKM .0006 ??
PAVP sold 1/2 at .016 eom
One of my trading style is.....
I like to buy good stocks , when nobody wants to buy...lol
see you guys in the morning~~
UGHO is this ready?
or are we done with this type of stock?(Homeland Security)
Dave gave me this when it was under .50 I belive...
should've bought....lol
Chad Hunt AVWI, PPS wise looks tempting.
is that double bottom??consolidation ?
IMHO.. If you have it .. I would hold.
I'll be watching next few days..to jump on.
I know I'm not helping much... about what ever I said above..
I'm not used to and not good at giving advise or opinions.
sorry about that.
UNSP ... sold
sold at .024.....bought at .028...hate that...lol
could've sold at higher..
ICGE .. good volum today
Holding from .37
PAVP had news today.
chart looks like it was making decending triangle..
and pops with news
I'm still holding from .0095
ok....just got home
GZFX did pretty good today. I sold at .07 bought at .065..
pocket change...
Chart looks like turning point?
sold IDGE at .0081
bought at .007
When I was trying to sell
bid was .0081 ask was .0084
I put sell order in at bid for 30 min...and not getting filled
lol
finally 3 partially filled 140k shares...lol
UNSP before I went out today I had put buy order in
at .028 and got filled ...
crap shoot imo..
I got to eat now...later guys
NWIS I had put buy order in yeaterday...limit 4.50
this morning got filled at 4.18
gonna keepem.
ok... something interesting..
I mentioned NWAV ( got from OTC) about two weeks ago.
since then...volum has been sucky...like none.
But since yesterday and today(16500 volum is goood, considering
none...lol) I see some buyer....uhmmm
Do I smell some news on the way ?
I'm in at 2.80
Holding longterm.... maybe something to watch.
just got home... and I see most of my gain are
gone...on GBLL
I know who took them ... could it be...... Dave? lol
ZKID .. if it holds above .25
it should be nice break out..imo
After you right-click the chart, you then select
"Properties" on that popup menu...
(This will then take you to the "Property" window)