Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Well China is flattening now, so that is a hopeful sign...
That would give us an arc to the other side of the peak -- at a certain point there is no stopping the at risk getting the virus, that has implicitly been acknowledged already no?, so it is about how long till distancing has no effect and can be stopped
Looks like 4 weeks to me -- THEN I think we see sentiment turn
Guido, it went down 20% from there today...
Shortages in medical supplies... Maybe lingering coronavirus cases in at risk groups in 18 months, but by then most of us will have had it and have immunity...
At some point, the gain in public health is not worth the economic disruption -- how long till Joe Public says enough to lockdown? I give it 4 weeks or less.
I would ask for the individual share certificates, since people are hoarding toilet paper...
Joke, too soon?
Prefs really began to break today -- I have been watching a little and they held up surprisingly well the last week or so. BUT today, looks like some people had to start to sell, took at 20-30% leg down on most issues
Once the forced selling starts, could get really ugly
If the $25 issues get to $3, or the $50's get to $6, then maybe I buy in. But today I bought a gas pipeline pref for 20 cents on the dollar which is cumulative, pays 34% right now, has clauses where the divvy goes up 20% if suspended AND has a clause that you get paid 11% per year on SUSPENDED dividends accrued... Banks originally fixed these predatory terms in a private placement...
Tough to forgo those kinds of bargains to buy FnF prefs dependent on creatures like Calabria... and when no deal till November
PLUS, you know Calabria and Mnuchin will pull some crap "given the circumstances"... never let a crisis go to waste, when you hear those words you should generally RUN
Good for Ackman
Nothing Calabria says is worth a crap
Can send it to me! I am open to helicopter money...
Ackman pushing the sensible idea to have a 30 day shut-down and suspension of credit payments nationally -- systematic plan will bring some calm and reassurance
Very sensible stuff
Trump has not got the backbone, or wit, for it, though, imho
Future up more like 75, sadly
I agree. I think things are being done for show rather than because they are good sense. Only recently has there been a loosening of control, with implicit acceptance (finally) that others might know better, to let others have a role in decision-mking... But that constant wild card possibility of a veto on decisions, and constant miscommunication of the message (because the top messenger does not understand the message), is killing confidence and spurring instability...
So, yes, we are going lower...
For example, August was touted today as a stopping point.
BUT China started their infection in December, coming round and lifting restrictions now in March (cos slowing the virus is pointless at a certain point) - so three months.
US started its infections in January, so three months takes you to April - add a month cos of no testing/isolating early gets you to May
So, 6-8 weeks from now.
At a certain point, the public health gains diminish and are outweighed by economic pain/necessities -- so this will pass imho...
Right now, markets see armagedon -- SKT is now ALREADY $6.5 (17% divvy), M is $6 (20% divvy) and I see them going lower once stores shut as they will... If I can buy either under $5, even $4?, then I will be a hugely happy man... and dig the cash from somewhere to do it...
Ok, so we got to 20k, will it hold or is it on to 15k as you predicted?
Given we re only on the first leg of this, might well keep going ...
Or perhaps the panic abates a little and we pull out of the dive before 15k?
...What a laugh, given the present hysteria I will wait for 15k...
Thanks, I am so glad not to have to check on Mr "Two Weeks" Calabria's every word and action... thought here are very few of the latter and far too many of the former
That is a bit extreme, but I see 20K.
I got my trully busted, beat-up pipeline MLP's today. No margin for me. So I will ride it out till they turn up.
I will be praying every night that MBS and Putin make-up, then I get a V shaped move in my holdings, but they are good retirement stocks in the worst case lol
Will we hit second circuit breaker at 13% drop (not 15%, sorry)?
Bambam, I hope to come back to FnF over the summer, but we shall see.
If the $25 orefs hit $3, or the $50's hit $6, then I may enter again...
Hang Seng and Australia puking red right now...
The scare tactics on FNMA begin: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FNMA/community?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FNMA/community?p=FNMA
This narrative about another housing scare is ramping up - BS but they will use it
Futures down to limit - I think people want to get to cash still... but we will see
Trump does not seem to realize you show strength by putting on a confident front. Dropping rates says “Ahhhhh Run for your lives” and spooks the markets - again.
TUTTO ANDRA BENE!
The Italian have the right attitude. It is a great country.
Thanks for the great video...
Here is a nice story about all the kids posting messages about it being fine -- "Tutto Adra Bene":
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/everything-will-be-alright-italians-share-slogan-of-hope-in-face-of-coronavirus-crisis
Rick, you till in ENLC? Looks like a great opp here to me
Not sure if you are still in FnF, I sold out this week of my prefs -- nothing happening there till Nov it seems...
Ah, makes sense then! But that is price gouging... 40% markup, wow
The Chinese are probably coming for all that rice..
50lbs! What you going to do with 50lbs? lol
Get very fat, I guess, that is a lot of rice - I bought 9lbs, along with flour and sugar last week and thought I got too much lol
No, the last eight weeks were critical and they shit the bed on testing... There is no point testing when everyone has the virus, since there is no treatment. You needed the test to find, and isolate, the infected BEFORE we were all infected...
The horse has bolted...
And down double on the bad ones...
We will see next week... I have the cash to make some purchases ;)
Golf, some people don’t know what is good for them... hope the swing is better
I think Trump, Pence and Barr probably are sick and you just gave the reason why either they won't get tested or we won't be told...
Dotnot, I agree with slowing the peak, but just noting after a couple of weeks, or whatever, there is no longer any gain -- so we won;t be on lockdown for months. IF the people in charge are competent, rather than acting for show
Fed Chairman Powell... Buffet, Ray Dalio... People who somebody might trust
Absolutely, hence the school closings...
I agree, next week, and the week after, could see some more drops...
But by May, who knows...
It is tasteless, this is a pandemic and a lot of people are going to get sick and die the next couple of months, PLUS it shows desperation...
When they stick Mnuchin and Kudlow on TV then you know it is bad -- fall guys like Pence
Because they are testing no one, they cannot find and contain infected people -- so those people carry on spreading.
Ohio schools now all shut
Once they test (yes, still virtually no testing!!!), as NY governor said yesterday, we are going to find huge rates of infection across the country. All but two states have confirmed cases
On the other side, self isolating and social distancing only make sense to slow the virus spread, but at some point if it is spread already then no point
Then you just need to support the health system with emergency ICU wards, respirators, etc. cos the elderly hit hard by the virus will pour in like North Italy...
Mnuchin shows he is no politician (again) -- "pandemic is good investment opportunity"... that is not the way to put the point:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/13/mnuchin-coronavirus-investment-opportunity-128132
And this guy will guide RnR?
BTW Trump is very pissed at Mnuchin over recommending Fed Governor Powell. Mnuchin has survived a hell of a long time, one of the few, but one wonders whether he survives this...
Market setting up for rout this afternoon imho
REITS and energy already softening up, not looking so good...
Look out, rally got no legs it seems... they are selling into the weekend
LIMEY hands sold out and went to cash...
Sorry to say, Stinkie, I think there are table-thumping bargains elsewhere AND I don't think this gets done till November, so why not put the cash to work?
I am also increasingly worried this does not get done...
Navy, noticed that too. Massive volume on FNMA probably the reason.