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ksuave re BSM:
I participated for 24 hours in the frenzy, but obviously sold way too soon. Still, terrific returns for 1 day -- thanks much.
Hoping for (and, frankly, kind of expecting) a similar market reaction if VPHM announces successful results in phase 1b trials for HCV-796. When cutting edge, important medical discoveries are announced, the "value" parameters get tossed aside. No-one has a clue how to value anything. Tough to know when to sell, but then, as you say, we should have more of such problems.
Congrats.
Steve
cintrix re motorcycles:
Might want to take a look at GMOS.
yielddude re MILAA:
Good timing!
Up sharply today in the last couple hours on -- for this stock -- "heavy volume." Q1 earnings are due out by 9/15. Perhaps they will be announced this week.
Steve
MSGI re RGEN:
The litigation between RGEN and BMY over CTLA4-Ig was resolved in BMY's favor in the second half of 2004. RGEN has its version of CTLA4-Ig; BMY has its version. The court determined that there was no infringement.
The FDA hearing on BMY's application for the use of its version of CTLA4-Ig for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis is set for hearing on September 6. BMY was given "fast-track" status by the FDA, understandably regarded as a good sign. According to RGEN's 10-K and website, if the FDA approves BMY's application, RGEN "will seek to license" its CTLA4-Ig patent rights to BMY. Although I can find nothing written down anywhere, I'm guessing there is an understanding between the companies in place already. It seems odd to me to say in a 10-K that one will "seek" to do something, unless one has a pretty good idea that the attempt will be successful. I think this is why the recent runup in the stock. It is presumed that FDA approval for BMY will be good news for RGEN, even though no-one is quite sure how to quantify it. I bought a few shares early this month, and will probably be adding more once I get a better sense of this RGEN/BMY potential business relationship.
The litigation against ImClone is ongoing. However, there is nothing in the pleadings recently filed, or in proceedings that are imminent in the litigation, that would account for a rise in the price of RGEN.
I think there's a lot to like about this stock, and am once again indebted to MSGI for a terrific find.
Steve
VPHM and Pleconaril:
I cannot find any timetable relating to an announcement about Pleconaril on Schering Plough's website. I have to assume that the timetable I have in mind (i.e., Q3 or Q4 of 2005) came from VPHM itself, in the presentations it has made during the past 3 months. I clearly recall reading/hearing on several occasions that further word on Pleconaril should be out "in the fall."
Steve
stock_peeker re VPHM:
1. In May the company initiated a phase 1b proof of concept clinical trial for HCV-796, its Hepatitis C drug in pipeline. The company has indicated in its presentations and in its most recent 10Q that it expects to have results in Q4 2005.
2. The announcement re Pleconaril will come from Schering Plough. The last time I looked on SP's website my recollection is that SP anticipated an announcement "in the fall of 2005." I would have to double check that.
From the company's presentations, I have an expectation that we will hear something about both before the end of the year, and news about Maribavir in Q1 2006.
Steve
c1001 re VPHM:
VPHM constitutes 58% of my accounts, and I am about 97% invested. I guess that makes me completely insane.
It did not start out that way, but the stock is up 339% since I bought (i.e., from $3.88 per share to $17.03). I bought quite a bit in May, and have not sold any. Thanks to VPHM my accounts are up 112% YTD, with everything else up about 25%.
FWIW, I think that Vancocin by itself is worth $20-$25 per share, and that the stock is still undervalued. Whatever happens to the stock over the next couple of months, I plan to hold until the news is out on HCV-796 and Pleconaril. IMHO if the news is good on either or both of these pipeline stories, the stock will run to $30-$50 per share in no time. The news on both should arrive before Q3 earnings.
Needless to say, with this many eggs in one basket, I watch the basket carefully. Hoping to join MikeS97707 and dump the day job . . .
Steve
OT: Uranium:
This week the spot price for Uranium broke through the $30 barrier to $30.20. Very significant, I think. Many of the small producers have done extremely well during the last 3 months, and my guess is that they will go much higher from here.
Steve
NCNC:
Vacationing in Hawaii. Checked in about 9:00 a.m. here with an hour to go before the close and read all the posts about NCNC.
Frankly, I sold today at a modest loss when I read the sentence Len notes from Bob's post. To me the sentence translates: "The lawyers and accountants require that I tell the truth. They keep mumbling something about securities fraud. They won't let me talk about possible positives, insisting instead that I talk about actual negatives." Don't like the look of this one.
Incidentally, if it needs to be said, Bob has NOTHING to apologize for regarding this or any other stock as far as I am concerned. I am deeply indebted to the terrific folks on this board for an outstanding investment year, and to Bobwins most of all.
The beach beckons. Aloha.
Steve
OT: Len re China, FXI:
I have not owned FXI for several months. But when I did own it, my understanding was that it was just like an index fund. Top 25 China stocks measured by market cap. I also had a few shares of PGJ for a short time -- another China ETF. But it did not do as well during the time I was in it. In PGJ I was never quite sure what I owned.
I got out of FXI before revaluation. Got tired of waiting for something to happen. When I was in it, it mirrored S&P 500 -- which I did not want to own. Has probably outperformed S&P 500 since revaluation.
Steve
OT: re China: FXI:
Another way to play China. An ETF that has done well this year, especially since revaluation, outperforming all China funds of which I am aware.
Steve
Politicians and Constituents:
I have not had a chance to visit this message board until tonight, and have enjoyed going through the messages.
On the subject of deficit spending and who is to blame, I thought I would share a couple of quotes. First, one that is 200 or so years old from Sir Alex Fraser Titler, Scottish jurist and historian, who was widely known in his time and was professor of Universal History (apparently there was such a course!) at Edinburgh University in the late 18th century:
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largess of the public treasury. From that time on the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the results that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's great civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: from bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to great courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to complacency; from complacency to apathy; from apathy to dependency; from dependency back again to bondage."
And, in a more contemporary American vein, from H. L. Mencken, a personal favorite of mine:
"The government consists of a gang of men exactly like you and me. They have, taking one with another, no special talent for the business of government; they have only a talent for getting and holding office. Their principal device to that end is to search out groups who pant and pine for something they can't get and to promise to give it to them. Nine times out of ten that promise is worth nothing. The tenth time is made good by looting A to satisfy B. In other words, government is a broker in pillage, and every election is sort of an advance auction sale of stolen goods."
I read both of these quotes many years ago, and they have stuck with me.
Steve
Bob, Hank re VPHM and options expirations:
I appreciate your input very much. I have what for me is a substantial position in this stock, having bought all shares in May at average of $3.88 per share. I was delighted with Q2 numbers last week, and expected the stock to go to $15 fairly quickly. Instead there has been selling.
I am well aware of the conversion shares, and understand profit taking in this as in any stock. But it made no sense to me that the downward pressure on price this week had much to do with options expirations. Thought I'd better inquire of those more experienced.
Thanks again.
Steve
Bobwins re VPHM:
On the Yahoo message board, one poster included this as a possible reason for recent selling:
"Hedge fund or others manipulating price for options. Whoever sold all those Call contracts would love to see the Aug Calls expire worthless."
Does this make sense to you? Aren't we still a week away from expiration?
Would greatly appreciate your thoughts, as I am tempted to buy more, but will wait out 8/19 if option activity is likely to have a material effect on price.
Thanks much.
Steve
MFIC may have the opposite distinction, after today's disappointing numbers.
If things don't turn around for a couple of my picks, come December I may have to do some serious buying.
NAHC:
Disappointing earnings. Look out below:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050810/105867.html?.v=1
Sold everything at the open.
Steve
Guy, larrybaz re CMNN:
Thanks. I like the story, and these guys sure know how to communicate with shareholders. But it seems a bit hyped, and I can't tell if it is wildly overvalued or undervalued at this price. Don't know how to quantify what it means to have all these websites.
Steve
yielddude re RVP:
Very late to this party ($5.62/share) but already up a bunch. Adding my thanks.
Steve
larrybaz, Guy re CMNN:
Do you have any sense of what revenues/earnings will be for Q2?
Thanks.
Steve
patentlawmeister re MFIC:
Has the date for announcing earnings been moved back?
Thanks.
Steve
rrufff re VSYS:
I may have underestimated the value of publicity in this Homeland Security Sector Report. Obviously a good day for the stock, up 15% on good volume. If the company has earnings this quarter, and guidance is upbeat, maybe the stock can run.
Steve
RRainman re UBET:
Best to have it in both.
Steve
RRainman re UBET:
Smells particularly good if you have it in the Pick Six.
Steve
roughnearedges re VPHM:
Whether you think earnings per share will be $.70 or $1.00 or (by some estimates) $1.20, if the company's revenue guidance holds up -- and I believe that it will -- it seems to me that something like $10 per share is the downside here. Unless Vancocin sales dry up, I will not be selling until the news is out on Pleconaril and HCV-796. If the news is positive on either or both of these drugs in pipeline, the upside could be considerable.
I bought in May at an average price per share of $3.88, and have not sold a single share. My perspective might be different if I had bought at $12 per share.
Steve
VPHM:
Some of the recent selling is no doubt attributable to conversion shares. Some may be simple profit taking after a terrific run during the past 3 months.
FWIW, I can't conceive of selling at this price, and would be buying more if I did not own so much already.
Steve
BPTR:
Earnings announced:
http://today.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?view=PR&symbol=BPTR&storyID=159...
Steve
MMRK:
Also announced share buy back program.
Steve
researcher59 re PLCC:
Unless it returns to $19, I will just hold through earnings. If it goes to $19 the temptation will be strong to sell the shares bought yesterday and today.
Thanks much to you and c1001 for thoughts.
Steve
researcher59, others re PLCC:
Have been surprised and pleased to see PLCC retreat in the last two days, and have gone ahead and added substantially. Are you aware of any change in the story?
Thanks.
Steve
VPHM and Pleconaril:
VPHM has the contractual right to certain milestone payments if and as Schering Plough takes the drug to market, that could be as high as $65 million. And if the drug does go to market, VPHM will get a "high single digit" percentage royalty on sales in the United States and Canada. VPHM has contract rights to an income stream only; Schering Plough owns all property rights to the drug (and will bear all costs to develop, market, etc.).
Steve
VPHM:
Could be the company is being conservative in projecting Vancocin sales for the balance of the year until it can be said for sure that there is no seasonality associated with the drug. Personally, I think sales will grow sequentially by 25% or so each quarter. The company is trying to tell us this in its presentations -- i.e., "C-Difficile: Apocalyse Next"; the company's focus on educating hospitals; etc.
If sales remain strong for the balance of this quarter another price increase before the end of the year seems a virtual certainty. De Rosen said in the B of A presentation on Friday that they are nowhere near the ceiling.
Steve
cleverrox re VPHM:
Your projections are as high as any I've seen. If the Q2 number really is that good, without the one time charge, then the stock will take off tomorrow.
Steve
UBET:
Down at the open on news that CFO has been let go. The current COO will assume his duties, and the current CEO will assume the duties of COO. The company is scheduled to announce earnings on Thursday.
A number of explanations are possible, but the announcement gave no explanation and I sold this morning until things become clearer. I have decent gains in the stock and did not want to see them disappear. If all is well, I will be happy to get back in, even at a higher price.
Steve
MSGI re VPHM:
I think we're going to find out this week that Vancocin by itself is worth something like $20/share. If the news on HCV-796 and Pleconaril is good, and arrives on schedule, you may have your wish by the end of the year.
Steve
gilead and Don re JMIH:
FWIW, I chewed through some of those $.31 shares today. I bought today because volume was up. Seemed like an opportunity to get a decent amount of the stock.
Steve
rrufff on HOM:
Thanks for the heads up. Bought some more today. I have a feeling the upcoming numbers will be good, and that the guidance will be really good.
Steve
rrufff re HOM:
Bought some on 7/11, 7/18 and 7/25 -- at an average price per share of $1.54. Even with recent gains, it looks like it will go significantly higher from here.
Thanks to you and floridahockeyman for posting about this stock. Terrific recommendation.
Steve
researcher59 re NAHC:
I was aware of the new share count, although the analyst estimate for Q2 that I have been working from is $.44 per the Reuters link below:
http://www.investor.reuters.com/CompanyFinancialHighlights.aspx?ticker=NAHC&target=%2fstocks%2ff...
What I don't have a feel for is whether the uses made of the $63.4 million raised in the IPO will have any positive impact on earnings in future quarters. Also, I can't figure out what the impact on earnings in Q2 and succeeding quarters will be because of the conversion from six-month to twelve-month policies. And the fact that the Reuters site I rely on to show historical earnings, linked above, shows $0 for Q2 of 2004 is not comforting!
Perhaps the best I can do is to accept the analyst estimates of $.39 and $.44. It's just that I have a distrust of analysts. Quite apart from questions of competence and carefulness, I always assume some conflict of interest somewhere driving the results. No doubt I am being unfair . . . .
Thanks for your thoughts.
Steve
SSKILLZ1 re NAHC:
I note that you posted about this stock on another message board. Are you able to make sense of the numbers? I'm having a tough time getting a handle on what to expect in Q2. This hasn't kept me from buying, but it has kept me from buying a lot. The company just went public in April, and is largely undiscovered.
Any thoughts you or anyone else following this stock has would be appreciated.
Thanks.
Steve
SANZ:
Up today on good news. Looks like this company may be a candidate for this board. Links to recent news below:
http://today.reuters.com/stocks/CompanyNews.aspx?view=PR&symbol=SANZ
Steve