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I had mentioned $2,80 a few weeks ago when I called a drop to the $3.35 level (too lazy to go back and try to find that one). A day later, InsiderFinancial posted something that also mentioned $2,80 which I guess is confirmation of my charts?
I don't know how to post images here I'm too old for this technology stuff) but if you look at a 3 month chart from around March-May, you'll see that it touches the $2.75-$2.85 several times, spikes up, retraces, spikes up, retraces, etc. After two or more of these events, it's safe to say that this is a new level of support (just as it's safe to say that the $3.80-$3.90 range is a new level of resistance.
Excellent call, Tom. Appreciate your insight.
I guess this isn't out of the realm of possibility, offerings happen all the time for biotech stocks, the ALZ trials are years away from being concluded, and AVXL has zero revenue producing assets nor does it have anywhere near the funds to actually manufacture and market the drug absent a partnership.
But, AVXL does have the LPC financing agreement which I think lessens the likelihood of an out of the blue offering. I'd actually prefer an offering because it's a one-time sucker punch and then the stock can go back up in value, as opposed to the slow bleeding dilution from ATM financing, but it is what it is.
I dont suspect we see an offering anytime soon. But if one were to happen it wouldn't be shocking. And I think it would be for a lot less than $2. Most offerings are for 50% less than the current PPS high.
I agree. There is no reason any company, let alone one as small as GIGL, should have two CEOs.
Joey lied to everyone when he said he was stepping down. He knew that wasn't going to happen. He just knew that nobody would ever consider investing in the offering with his incompetence running the company.
He later claimed that Gay didn't have time to be a full-time CEO. Okay, fair enough. But that would have come out during the initial discussions. Gay has been CEO before. He knows what it takes especially for a start-up like GIGL. And they both knew that they were going to lie to shareholders to con them out of their money to participate in the offering, which turned out to be a complete disaster.
Besides, if Gay doesn't have time to be CEO full-time, there are literally hundreds of equally qualified candidates out there to choose from.
That $2.80 magnet is strong. With enough selling pressure, stock could easily blow right through it to the next level of support.
My large block GTC stink bid at $2.79 awaits. Should be interesting to see how it plays out. Rett's news is due soon, but we've been saying that for over a year now.
Phil doesn't really have a reputation anymore. His last (and arguably only) success was like 25 years ago with CPK. Since then, what's he accomplished? I'll go ahead and give him some credit for Wolfgang Puck though it would be more fair to give the credit to Mr. Puck himself -- not really sure Philip Gay played a big role in expanding that brand.
He attached himself to Giggles for the same reason we all did. He thought it was a unique concept with a chance to become the next big thing. And it can, except Joey Parsi is a terrible excuse for a business owner. His incompetence is the reason why GIGL is going nowhere but down. Anyone else, literally anyone else, could have done something with this brand. Parsi cannot even expand beyond 2 locations. Think about that for a minute. Not even with franchising.
Gay is getting paid in shares that may or may not be worth something, but for how much work? He's a consultant masquerading as part-time CEO, a formality in name only because Parsi thought maybe that would sucker people into the offering. Which it did. He then used those proceeds on G&A instead of expansion. Gay still has his consulting business. How much time do you think he puts into Giggles. Maybe 5-10 hours/week? If that?
He's staying on because it's an easy, do-nothing job that requires him to speak to shareholders 4 times a year for 30 minutes. Maybe one day those shares become worth something. And I think Gay has too much pride at this point to admit he misjudged Parsi's capabilities.
Yup. You're doing it right. This way if the stock crashes to near zero, which is not out of the realm of possibility, you're only out the opportunity cost and time value of your profits.
The risk of course is that Anavex breaks out positive, unexpected news while you're in the middle of a flip and you're on the outside looking in. And that will surely happen to some who press their luck. But the odds of it happening anytime soon seems worth the risk.
I have a close of around $3,15 or so. More or less even for the day. Let's see how it plays out.
I still hold that $2,80 is the number that most people need to watch from a purely TA perspective.
I said that the gap to fill for the 52 week low is $1.25.
In November 2018, nobody would have ever thought $1.25 was possible. It hit.
Same thing here. Nobody thinks that we can reach those lows again. I disagree. If the trade wars create another recession, the December 2018 fade is going to look like a blip.
Ironically, biotech becomes one of the safer stocks if that were to happen. Because while everything else will be trading down based on revenue reductions, the trials will still continue regardless of the economy, and good data will send this stock to its rightful valuation.
Yup. I agree. Long term the price is irrelevant. Short term however the price action matters a lot. I like to ride free shares because it takes away all of the risk. The only way to ride free shares is to trade, and reinvest the profits in AVXL.
Knocking on Door #2. I personally think it'll bounce around this level, maybe back to the 3.15 area. But that's going to be the new base for a while. I don't see this getting back to $4 anytime in the next week or two without news
AVXL is down 2x the Nasdaq Biotech Index.
People are dumping their Anavex because they don't want to lose whatever profits they made over the l last 3 weeks.
Yes, the market is dropping. But the charts show that Anavex's dump would have happened regardless of what the market did. Just as it went up $1+ when the markets were sideways.
And guess what...AVXL has more room to drop.
Dropping more. $3.09.
Charts show where this is heading.
Technically, yes, it’s a penny stock. It’s pre-split price is .75.
The thing many don’t want to hear is that right now Anavex is way overvalued. A company with zero profit, and moreover, zero revenue that also has significant cash burn should not be worth $150M.
But that’s the way biotech works. It’s why when drugs fail the stock price usually crashes 80-90%.
Right now all of Anavex’s value is derived from speculative interest that maybe A273 will work. If it does, then $150M is a bargain. But in its current form owning Anavex is like owning a lotto ticket that you know has two correct numbers. The odds of the other 4 being correct are slim but you’ll play a slight premium because the odds are better than when you bought the ticket four years ago.
I don’t see this creeping up slowly. The market has had plenty of time to value the drug. But even if it does drop to .30, if the drug is approved, the next day it’ll go from .30 to $30. Unless you’re trading this watching the daily prove is kind of a waste of time. But from every realistic valuation metric, there’s no way AVXL is worth $150M. Biotech markets are just full of crazy hype that inflates everything across the board until the FDA decides their fate.
I think you have it backwards. High cholesterol may cause early onset Alzheimers. Maybe taking Lipitor will reduce Alzheimer’s. Anavex 273 doesn’t seem to have an effect on cholesterol reduction.
https://www.anavex.com/anavex-reports-predicted-clinical-effect-of-both-anavex-2-73-and-anavex-plus-in-a-humanized-cortical-cognitive-model-for-alzheimers-disease/
And then A+ bombed in the subsequent trials. At the time on the Yahoo board, nobody was talking about A273 as a standalone therapy. It was all about combining it with Aricept.
It's just too soon to tell how the plays out one way or the other, good or bad. Those on here who say that this stock is going to $500 and those here who are convinced it's going to $0 are both just making wild predictions, and nothing more. It would be great if this went to $500 but if it goes to $0, my goal is to minimize any financial damages to my accounts. Thankfully, with the way Anavex trades, this isn't too hard to do.
I agree Leo. I think your $3.4 will be fine but the short term may be a little rough to watch.
I'm in the minority that I don't think Anavex P3 trials will be as significant or positive as many here expect. Remember a few years ago when Anavex + was all the rage, and how that turned out to be a dud despite the initial Week 5 data?
AVXL has just as good a shot at being the next standard of care as any other ALZ drug on the market but the odds are still significantly against success based on how little is known about this disease in general.
So, you're correct/smart to trade this rather than marry it. Those who marry it may well be rewarded with riches beyond their wildest dreams but I shudder to think what this message board will look like the morning after disappointing trial results.
Thankfully, with P3 data not due for a while and with all the ups and downs this volatility allows traders and investors a unique opportunity to accumulate free shares, so that this normally high-risk investment becomes significantly mitigated. Even today, the price action provided a tremendous opportunity to recoup a nice net gain on total shares owned.
Today's stock price action is interesting. Great opportunities await those who know how to read TA charts.
Thank you. Now we wait and see if it holds.
I was off by two pennies. It hit support at $3.33.
Close enough for my book. Should be interesting to see how the day winds up in power hour.
I think we bounce off 3.35, doc.
Selling. Lots and lots of selling.
A lot of traders piled in. They're taking profits.
A lot of longs who had averages in the 2s are taking profits, too.
Why wouldn't they? Lots of room to run long term IF the data is good, but if you can take a guaranteed profit and buy back in a week or two for $1+ less, may as well. Most longs here have learned the patterns and know how to trade this for profit.
Heavy resistance at $4. Lots of sell orders there it appears, and without data or some other catalyst event it looks like we're not going to get through it. Next level of support if $3.30 doesn't hold is around the $2.80 mark.
Today's Earnings PR: Translated
1. We had a monster Q1, but we're still going to be operating in the red because we pay our inept CEO a massive amount of money to manage two measly locations, despite having a manager at each location to handle the day-to-day.
2. We have an unnamed business search firm looking to find someone to come in and dilute shareholders so that we can expand, because we cannot go back to the shareholder well after promising a non-dilutive offering that was purported for expansion but the money was spent on our $400k/year professional and reporting fees.
3. Malls love us, but they don't trust us enough to give us credit to expand. But we promise the red carpets have been rolled out!
4. The weather is a major factor for our success. Families are choosing Giggles n Hugs instead of the park because of the rain -- even though most birthday parties are planned months in advance and even the best meteorologists in the world can't accurately predict the weather more than 10 days out.
5. The rest is basically copied/pasted rehash from previous PRs. All the pieces in place, maximize value, etc, etc.
Yawn.
Wait, are you for real? Because this sounds like something Joey would write about himself.
Let's take a look at your comments piece by piece.
1. Two profitable locations for many years. And yet the company itself at the parent level is losing money hand over first year after year. For many years. Think about that for a second. What this means is that there is massive amounts of wasteful spending and organizational bloat at the top. What this means is that Joey and his pals are siphoning those profits from the restaurants into their own pockets, spending money unnecessarily on other things, so that there's nothing left over for the shareholders.
2. For many years. Not to beat a dead horse, but there are two locations. How long should it take to expand? Parsi loves to brag about how over $9M has been invested in this concept as if that means the company's value is $9M. Nope. That money is long gone. Do you consider spending $9M to open two locations a success?
3. CEO of a public company. First of all, Parsi is on record saying that the cost of staying public is somewhere, I believe, in the ballpark of $400k. But he refuses to back those expenses up and justify how the breakdown works out -- because $400k for a company the size of Giggles is ridiculous. Even if Parsi had a full-time in-house attorney and accounting, it wouldn't/shouldn't cost $400k/year to report.
More crucially, Giggles never should have gone public to begin with. You don't go public with two or three locations. Parsi is too stupid to know that though. It's an ego stroke for him. Any jackass can take a company public. That isn't hard to do. Maximizing value for shareholders is the hard part and there is zero evidence in anything you've written that Parsi has EVER been able to deliver on that front, for 9+ years and counting.
So yeah, the criticism is easily justified. Parsi is a community college dropout, a failed stock broker who was "allowed to resign" from Ameritrade and who worked at Baron Chase where the company culture was wrought with fraudulent behavior. Parsi is just as sketchy as he looks.
Parsi needs to be careful. The SEC doesn't like meaningless press releases designed solely to inflate the share price. Which is what this attempt is, otherwise why now?
Same with bitcoin. Parsi is on record saying that the company accepts bitcoins but go to the restaurant and try to pay with bitcoin, what do you think will happen?
Meatless burgers, meet bitcoin.
Remember when Joey Parsi was a day late a buck short with his "now accepting bitcoin!" PR?
He's trying to piggyback off of market trends, but he's always a week late. And, nobody cares. If anything, this is bad because that stuff isn't cheap -- Parsi may as well have PR'd something that says, "our menu will give you quality, but it'll put a dent in your pocket book."
He acts like he signed a distribution deal with Beyond Meat or something. He didn't. Nobody cares. But Parsi the carnival barker will do anything to try and create a temporary spike in his share price since it's all he's got -- he's incapable of growing the business into a profitable enterprise, with expanding locations.
Did I read correctly that he's giving himself a company car? And did I read correctly that he's giving himself options to buy millions of shares at a fraction of a penny?
What does Hampel bring? His undivided attention and focus to Anavex. His priority just shifted toward Eisai. If Anavex wanted his complete attention, Missling should have put him on the payroll beyond some stock options.
Hampel's responsibility at Eisai is to help them develop a cure. Maybe that path leads toward Anavex. But if something else turns up, Hampel is now legally obligated to pursue other alternatives besides Anavex if its in Eisai's best interest.
I'm sure he will still be a supporter of Anavex, but let's not act like he isn't working for a competitor. He is. Eisai would much prefer to develop its own Alzheimer's drug than go the expensive route and purchase one from someone else if it had the choice between both options.
I agree. Eisai has a lot of people involved with their AD work, and there was another PhD who was hired to run its pipeline portfolio -- if anything, Dr. Izirarry would be the one who has more clout when it comes to M&A.
That said, it's certainly not a bad thing for Anavex to have members of its advisory committee to hold influential positions at large pharmaceutical companies. And didn't Eisai invent Aricept? If anything they'll want to maintain control of the Alzheimer's market.
Thanks. I don't know either. I'm playing catch-up on a year's worth of DD in a day, so I'm just trying to sort through everything. I always start with the financials, and even though 2017 is a bit old, I didn't see anything where TMPS retired shares. So, when I heard that OTC had 29M listed as total authorized, I figured I'd ask more knowledgable people here if they could identify and/or explain the discrepancy.
Thanks for the thoughtful reply.
Can you shed any light on this? Seems like TMPS was favored for a contract last month but lost it because of financial difficulties.
I've been following this for a while, a trader I respect who posts here occasionally told me about TMPS last year and I've been holding some shares debating whether to take profits or turn this into an investment.
The valuation seems ridiculously low now that the contract is finalized. That said, for a company that's backed by billionaires, why are financials such an ongoing concern?
I'd like to see Johan convert his debt, to take that off the table. Plus, with him having more common it would align his interests with ours -- as opposed to him being a creditor.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2019-03-16/turkey-receives-global-6000s-jammer-conversion
Explain this
https://last10k.com/sec-filings/tmps/0001213900-17-012673.htm#fullReport?utm_source=last10k&utm_medium=PDF&utm_campaign=share&utm_term=1628871
Page 10.
Authorized shares (Common): 100M
That's interesting. Are you sure those numbers are accurate? Because per the last filing I could find, the March 2017 10Q, TMPS had the following:
40M shares of preferred stock authorized, none issued.
100M shares of common stock authorized, with 17.8M shares issued.
https://last10k.com/sec-filings/tmps/0001213900-17-012673.htm#fullReport?utm_source=last10k&utm_medium=PDF&utm_campaign=share&utm_term=1628871
This info is on page 10 if you click the above link.
Here's a question I haven't seen answered. Playing Devil's Advocate.
Most likely, Johan doesn't want his $6M back with 10% interest. He wants TMPS shares, which he can convert his debt into equity at .08 per.
This would add approximately 75M shares to the float -- yes, it would all be concentrated in the hands of one person, but to what extent is this dilution going to drag down the price of the stock temporarily?
Maybe. But I think most people know about it by now. The stock is up 250-300%. That's about the % gain anyone would expect from the PR had it been released yesterday. I think a move like that caught more attention than you believe.
Question is whether the 8K matters at this point. For all intents and purposes the news is out.
What I hope to see is a base forming here. No more .10 shares. Let the company continue to get more contracts, grow revenue, and eventually find a buyer.
I have yet to see anything that states that Johan Eliasch, or his companies, are entitled to "all of Tristar, LLC". It appears that some planes were pledged as collateral, but again, this doesn't mean that the DoD contract is automatically transferred to Johan in the event of a default.
You're right. I did my DD, and guess what...you're wrong.
"3. SECURITY DOCUMENTS . The Company covenants with the Holder, not later than the 30 th day after the date of this Note, (i) to execute and deliver, or cause to be executed and delivered, to the Holder documents in form and substance satisfactory to the Holder providing for the following collateral security for the obligations of the Company under this Note: (x) a mortgage and security interest to be granted by N198GS Inc. and Bluebell Business Limited of their respective interests in Gulfstream G-IV Airframe serial no. 1098, registration no. N198GS, and Rolls-Royce Tay MK611-8 engines serial nos. 16134 and 16135, and related property; (y) a security interest to be granted by the Company in all the issued and outstanding shares of Bluebell Business Limited; and (z) a security interest to be granted by Bluebell Business Limited in its rights under the trust agreement between Bluebell Business Limited and N198GS Inc., (the documents providing for such mortgage and security interests, collectively, the “Security Documents”) and (ii) to take such steps as are required, or are requested by the Holder, in order to perfect and protect the security to be granted pursuant to such Security Documents."
Please tell me where it states anywhere that Tempus is obligated to give up control of its subsidiary, Tristar, in the event of a default?
I'll wait...
Can you please point to where in the agreement it says he gets Tristar? My understanding is that he gets the planes. Which isn't the same as getting all of Tristar, legally speaking.
The DoD contract isn't with the planes, its with Tristar. In theory, if Tristar were somehow able to acquire other planes, the contract would go on as is.
If Johan wants the DoD contract, he would first need to take possession of the planes, and then he'd need to go and try and solicit the DoD on his own. I guess that seems possible. But more than likely, the DoD would be sketched out and would go back to one of the other two proposals that it received from other companies. And Johan would be left owning six planes and no government contract.
Right now it doesn't look like Johan owns 90% of TMPS. It looks like he has the -right- to own 90% of TMPS if he agrees to convert his debt.
Is this correct?
And if he doesn't convert, if he demands payment instead, he basically gets the planes. But does he get Tristar? Because the contract is with Tristar. So taking ownership of the planes alone doesn't mean he then has the right to that $120M.
I can see a scenario where if TMPS doesn't pay him he gets the subsidiary in its entirety, and with it all of its contracts, why he wouldn't have any need for TMPS and why he wouldn't convert into shares. Because the value is in Tristar. . But the language seems to indicate that he gets only the planes, that the contract stays with TMPS.
Please correct me if I am wrong. Thanks
Here is a question: would a change in ownership for the Tristar create a condition where the contract is invalidated?
I can't imagine the Navy being cool with agreeing to work with someone, then a week later that person transfers the company to a third party.