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40 to 1 is Not "Pulling Back"
It's an outright collapse. Let's hope Kyle is being quiet because the company is going to report a monster quarter and he'll let the numbers do the talking
Wrong. Again.
This is purely a coincidence that the market is at its most volatile. I'm loving the volatility. I got long on VXX last week and have some covered @APL calls that I'll be closing soon for a tidy profit. I also have a decent amount of cash thanks to ERBB and the MJ market earlier this year, so I'm getting ready to buy.
Unfortunately, I took a hard look at my ERBB position and outlook which gave me a dose of reality. I don't care that ERBB's share price is near a penny. What I'd do care about is the repeated failure to bring products to market, failure clearly divulge info like the OneBode sale and general failure to create value in this equity. If even 5 Zazzz machines were in place, operating and on display, the company (and myself) would be in a very different position.
Stop acting like this is me. I'm not the one who has repeatedly failed to capitalize on the Zazzz hype. In April this year ERBB and American Green had so much promise. After 2 years of being a shareholder it actually seemed like the company would finally start executing and for a minute, they actually did. But over the past few months it's become pretty clear that there are some exceptional deficiencies.
JTSIC I Want ERBB to Be An Investment
I am not a sheep that blindly follows the herd. If I see some total BS, I'm calling it out.
I see people here claiming the delays are due to the complicated technical nature of the Zazzz machines and it's total BS. The delays are due to sloppy project oversight and even worse project management. I'm from the school of Steve Jobs in such that "great artists ship." Notice when Apple releases a new product, it's generally brought to market 1 or 2 weeks (with the exception of the watch) because that will capitalize on the interest.
Zazzz has been a fiasco. It was "released" in April and supposed to be placed at Herbal Elements by May at the latest. The. It was placed but not fully operational. By July, that first Zazzz was still barely operating. So then comes a PR about several more places and the Doctor's Orders machine. So do sales finally follow? NOPE. More delays. You'd think that all the beta BS from the Zazzz at Herbal Elements would work out the kinks but nope.....the Doctor's Orders machine has technical glitches? Or three week wrapping issues?
As an INVESTOR this type of shenanigans are unacceptable and making me question my "investment" in American Green. Don't get that twisted. This has nothing to do with volatility and everything to do with the repeated failures of bringing Zazzz to market. If they've fumbled Zazzz so badly how are they supposed to manage other parts of the business?
I've also received ridiculous answer from IR regarding OneBode. I'm not saying American Green is a "scam". Far from it. I think they are truly trying to make a go at this but they just don't have the knowledge or resources to bring value to shareholders
.0119 is a Key Technical Benchmark
There is absolutely zero support in ERBB. Zero. All the cheerleading, "GO ERBBing" ain't going to cut it. Neither is a PR. The only thing that will save ERBB is buying and despite the Rah-Rah squads, nobody is buying. This is just a sell off that met with a bad overall market.
Hopefully there will be some capitulation soon. The only factors that will bring ERBB back from the dead is a positive earnings report or a major federal change to prohibition.
Zazzz "placements" mean jack squat these days. I don't care if American Green announces 4,000 to be placed tomorrow with signed contracts in hand. So far they've promised 2 and it's been an utter disaster. The machine have been delayed due to technical glitches, cosmetic upgrades, legal clearance but who really knows what's going on. There has been absolutely ZERO independent confirmation that the Herbal Elements or Doctor's Orders Zazzz machine are even operating. Not a single piece of media even from American a Green themselves. The news reports are great but all they have shown is more hot air from Shearin and NOT ONCE has any report showed even a single customer using the Zazzz machine.
Basically Shearin has squandered his word with all the Zazzz blunders. This attitude of "eh, if there's delays" is understandable once, maybe twice but it just doesn't stop and after months of delays just to get 2 Zazzz machines inside an actual shop, machines that are barely (if) even operating, well that just sucks. Shearin needs to be busting ass and breaking balls not just wishy washing over the constant screw ups.
And PUhLEeEEEEEZE stop with the "it's not easy to build a Zazzz machine" garbage. I've seen the Mach 1. The machine is by absolutely no means a feat of technological machination. It's a refashioned junk food dispenser with an iPad slapped on it. They're not building a ship to take people to Mars here.
I was going to buy recently but after all this nonsense, I'm waiting till ERBB drops below a penny. There is absolutely no support in these prices since, over the past 24 months, ERBB hasn't even traded at these prices long enough to build a base.
If American Green had met even 10% of the goals claimed earlier in the year the stock would never have been hammered so hard. If 100 (10%) machines were operating ERBB would be a legit player. Instead American Green is laughable in its current state. Let's hope this changes otherwise I'm outta here by next spring in the hope of a cyclical MJ pop
1.25 Ol' Malvy, 1.25
Remember that gap VAPE would never get to. Bet you wish you sold when it was over 6
Nov 4th has ZERO to do with VAPE. Their products are not dependent upon legalization like other real MJ companies. VAPE products sales depend on good marketing and distribution, something Kyle knows absolutely nothing about.
And enough with the manipulations cries already. That is a major accusation you have made saying Kyle is colluding with market makers. Not at all. The company just sucks that's all
It Separates the Apples from the Lemons
JSTIC, you got great points there and your last line is really the "bottom line".
The reason for venting here is because the rinky-dink, penny stock antics are what separates the Apples from the AOLs or Netscapes. By that I mean the poor execution, the delays, the antics are what prevents companies from achieving greatness like Apple, ultimately leading to failure like AOL or Netscape by imploding on itself or being beat down by rivals.
It is a little presumptuous to hold American Green to Apple's standard but they can do better. The company has a great "seed to sale" business model and so potentially massive product offerings but failure to effectively bring them to market has been devastating. I seriously doubt ERBB would be around a penny if say 10% (100) if Stephen's March 2014 projection of 1000 machines were delivered and operating.
And Gwyther's 144 isn't a dirty secret. Besides who cares if an insider sells $10,000 worth of ERBB? If he sells 7,000,000 then we can talk. As for Rex Chapman, it's pretty sad and sounds like part of a bigger problem as he is in rehab for painkiller abuse. Rehab doesn't look good when you're a spokesperson for a MJ company but who knows maybe the green stuff can help Rex kick the mean stuff. Even before Rex there was supposedly Steve Nash with OneBode, but who knows what's really happening with the sale of that entity.
BUT the biometric issues definitely concern me as it differentiates the Zazzz and involves IP. Shearin did mention the Mach 2 machines would have upgrades concurrent with the patents but after the Mach 1 rollout, I'm not letting my hopes float away.
I'm not "whining" here but these are some serious questions "investors" need to think about, as does American Green. I don't want ERBB to be a the "mercy of the MJ cycle". I'd like to see this company standing on its own and the current execution levels are not going to get it done
Not "Bugging Out", More Like "Airing Out"
Just letting out some steam. Now is as good as time as any to start discussing the pitfalls of this stock.
I've been reworking my strategy for adding to my position but I have not made any changes to my investment outlook. I was originally ready to buy these lows but after revising my buy level multiple times, I am waiting for ERBB to possibly sink below .01 before adding to my position because there is little end in sight.
I don't play the "monster PR" game because at this point, American Green's words are as actionable as Pinnochio when his nose is extended. A PR could undoubtedly raise the pps but to generate sustainable value, this company needs to start acting like a company if the stock has any chance.
50,000 shareholders? C'mon. There was about 50 people at Montana's in April for the Zazz release and 1/4 of them were from the company/company friends. The unspectacular first ever live webcast that failed so badly had about 10 people in attendance, 3 of which were outside shareholders. Why did they even waste the money and do that at a Marriott when they probably could have livestreamed from an iPhone from the American Green office?
And now we're promised this Mach 2 machine when Mach 1 hasn't even reached supersonic?
I'm not here to hype or bash a stock. I've been bullish in the past but I wouldn't call it "hype". This time last year I was fired up too with the upcoming legalization, but I was cautious with my posts despite making some rather large buys across the sector. I'm pretty passionate about my investment as I was with @APL and other passion plays before I made so much I just stopped caring. With the MJ sector I am even more fired up, less motivated by money but more by progress.
American Green has a great business going but I'm a little sick and tired of the rinky-dink execution. They need to get beyond these Twitter and PR games to get some real media bites. Not just small news clips but internally developed media showing OGTea, Truth Lighting, and Zazzz.
Manufacturers Glitch Huh?
But I thought American Green didn't want to release a machine that wasn't 100% ready for market? So once again they've released the machine, but it was delayed for "wrapping", then delayed for a glitch? What's next, they forgot to put in a power cord and have to send it back once again?
I mean seriously, after the endless delays at Herbal Elements, you'd think American Green would have worked this out already. And I'll say it again, the current iteration of the Zazzz machine DOES NOT have biometric identification. Sure it has a "camera" on top and a nifty card swiper but the demo I saw from Greg at Herbal Elements showed absolutely ZERO biometric identity. Greg did absolutely nothing for the camera to use facial recognition as there were several people standing in front of the camera so it would never have been able to differentiate the buyer.
I'm extremely disappointed. Extremely.
Companies like American Green have been blessed with an amazing opportunity to get a jump in the newly legal cannabis markets because big players like Big Pharma, Big Alcohol and Big Tobacco are unable to legally enter this marketplace. Unfortunately, this ground floor opportunity has been squandered by poor execution.
I have to agree with a good friend of mine when he said that the only ones currently making money in the new MJ business are the small private companies like Dixie Elixirs and other growers/edible makers.
Why is .50 So "Unlikely".
When VAPE was at 8 I was called an idiot when I said it would cover the 1.25 gap. Not only did it cover, it went below that gap by 20% and even today VAPE is now below 1.25.
.50 is very real, .10 is "unlikely".
There is absolutely zero support here and even less buying. There is still plenty of warrant selling. The CEO is an idiot. Things aren't looking so good here and I doubt anything that fool CEO can do to pull this out. I'm waiting until Feb or March of 2015 in case the annual MJ market boom happens but either way, I'm dumping this stock in 5 months regardless
"News" Ain't Gonna Cut It by Now
Aside from some serious earth shattering news, ERBB seems to be at the mercy of the annual cycle of the MJ markets. American Green has some very serious problems. As bullish as I am, there are some significant issues preventing people from taking American Green seriously and what better time to discuss these problems during these dark days;
WTF is going on with the Zazzz machine at Doctor's Orders? Is it even operational? There was a 2 week delay "custom wrapping" the machine with the same lime green wrap? Bullsh....it doesn't take that long to custom wrap something even if you included the time to design a logo/pattern.
The current Zazzz that I have seen at Herbal Elements doesn't even have "biometrics". I'm sorry to say this but it is a dirty secret that has been plaguing me for a while. Greg slid his driver's license and dropped in some cash but at no point did he have to verify his identity via facial recognition, fingerprint or any other physical verification. When Greg purchased the items from the Zazzz machine there were several people standing around the machine so it's pretty obvious there was no biometric identifier at play.
I'm as excited as anyone about new announcements of Zazzz placements. However it's been 6 months since the Zazzz was officially released and it's been nothing but delays with zero indication of actual sales via Zazzz. I don't want to go so far as to say I feel lied to but the "custom wrap" delays mentioned above is hogwash. So why is releasing these machines such an issue. I'm tired of hearing the company doesn't want to release an incomplete machine because they have repeatedly done that. The Montana's release was a skeleton of a machine that was not ready for the market. The Zazzz at Herbal Elements was placed, then replaced and sat collecting dust for months. Doctor's Orders Zazzz has been delayed and who knows if it's even working.
Acquisitions are great but it seems like a kid collecting new toys and it's getting tot the point where the company is really spreading itself thin. How is American Green supposed to manage and more important, profit from these multiple business operations when they can't even manage a profit from ONE single sector?
I fully understand the trailblazing work American Green has been doing but there are some serious issues here. Until these issues are mitigated and resolved, no amount of news is going to help unless it involves reporting profits or something truly spectacular. Traders have lost interest in ERBB and investors are slowly following.
I Can't Speak for the Article's Legitimacy
But I can speak to the effect of the "legitimacy" regarding the issues discussed.
And here's some speculative fuel to add to the fire:
A friend of mine in the East Coast clerked at SCOTUS and the AG's office about 10 years ago. She still has some pretty deep connections within the legal sector although today she works for a large private NYC firm. A while back she and I were discussing the legal and social changes towards cannabis. From what she said, there is unbelievable pressure to make changes.
As I understood her, the DEA and DOJ are incredibly frustrated because their playbook is a complete mess. Enforce federal prohibition? Make arrests and convictions? DEA agents are furious because they have built cases for years against "criminals" but are being told to stand down. Judges are in a particularly tough position because they face political and professional reprocussions of enforcing or not enforcing current laws.
I still think federal legalization is about 5 years away but if Initiative 71 is passed in D.C. This November, legalizing small amount of cannabis for personal recreational use, then the issued will be forced on the Capital. I doubt politicians and law makers will want to touch the issue on a federal level during the 2016 presidential elections but if we could speak something through during the 2015 off season, the MJ market could get a serious boost.
Sales Numbers from One Zazzz Would Be Great
Ugh if we could just get the quarterly revenue figures for one Zazzz machine!
This would be a great way to project future revenues and if the numbers were decent, ERBB could blast off independent of the whole MJ sector.
Right now, without the actual numbers here is what I'm seeing:
$50/day over 500 Zazzz machines would be almost $10m per year
The $50/day estimate is based on a $1 transaction fee per Zazzz purchase times 50 transaction per day.
At $100, the lease agreements alone on 500 machines would draw $600k in annual revenue which would probably cover the majority of maintenance. Calculating the margins without the revenue figures is an exercise in futility but my guess is they'd be pretty high.
Even at the low end of my projections at 500 machines, I see Zazzz taking in about $10m annually. But this is also limited to the MJ market. I think Zazzz machines could even be applied to dispensing traditional pharmaceuticals. Zazzz could be a billion dollar, money printing machine.
I Hear Ya Vman
It seems like you're legitimately frustrated with ERBB and it's good that you're confronting the issues.
Elections:
There is no guarantee Oregon or Alaska will pass their legalization legislation. People seem to have forgotten that in 2012 Oregon voted No on recreational legalization. Unfortunately, like California, it is the Oregon medical MJ community that is the most vocally anti-recreational MJ because they will lose their niche in the marketplace.
But the ball is rolling. I'm convinced the most important MJ legislation being voted upon this November will be Initiative 71 in Washington, D.C. which would legalize small amounts of cannabis for recreational use. That's a big deal. As history shows, t's pretty rare that society digresses in situations like this; slavery, alcohol prohibition, women's suffrage, civil rights...all these institutions saw easing of existing social and legal opposition and have slowly progressed but rarely digress. Colorado and Washington have been a success. The only trouble for California's MMJ industry has mostly been from the DEA and Feds.
Zazzz:
As you stated, the Zazzz machine has been a pretty spectacular flop. The sensational media coverage has been spoiled by countless delays long after the Zazzz machines should have already been operating. It is like having a Ferarri parked in the garage with no money for gas but when you finally gas it up, you've lost the keys and then you find the keys and it starts snowing.........
I'm frustrated with the Zazzz to. When I saw it at Herbal Elements, it was operating with edible, O.Pen Vape products and other MJ stuff. I haven't spoken to anyone at Doctor's Orders regarding the latest Zazzz machine and I have to take American Green's word about the upcoming machines. It's great to hear of progress but you're correct that the rollout has been so sloppy, I'm not going to get too excited until I see some revenue figures on an earnings report.
Keep Green and ERBB ON
Its been a beatdown for the MJ sector over the past few months and it looks like broader markets finally caught a whopping too. Great week for trading as the markets played both the bull and bear side. I made a nice mint selling Oct weekly 45 strike calls against my M$FT position which paid for adding to my ERBB and V@PE positions.
Soon enough, American Green should be releasing the news about new machine placements that were discussed in the Cannawebcast. We're also approaching November mid-terms. Past elections, including the 2012 cycle in which CO and WA legalized recreational cannabis, have not provided too much help to the MJ markets but I have my hopes that this 2014 November mid-term cycle brings some welcome news.
Two more states are voting on full recreational legalization but the real kicker is INITIATIVE 71 in Washington, D.C. Folks our nation's capital is considering legalizing small amounts of cannabis for personal use. Let me say that one more time with feeling:
WASHINGTON, D.C. IS VOTING ON LEGALIZING RECREATIONAL CANNABIS THIS NOVEMBER
When the city that houses the federal law makers of the land is considering the end of cannabis prohibition, you better believe thats a major deal. MAJOR. a YES vote will undoubtedly force the DEA to reschedule among many other local and national changes to cannabis laws.
I have not been this excited about the cannabis industry since November last year when I could barely contain myself about Colorado's Jan 1 legalization. I'll never forget arguing with the "leading MJ analyst" about the significance of the event. Of course, that "leading analyst" discouraged folks from selling and was on the wrong side of history.
Its time to get out of this rut and funk it up into the new year.
Keep Green
and
ERBB ON
Please Provide Proof of this $100m Cash Grab
I've read every single ERBB earnings report for the past 3 years, listened to every audio/video media involving ERBB, spoken to Stephen Shearin/Greg Patrick/Greg Honan, visited the HQ in Tempe/Zazzz machine at Herbal Elements and even discussed ERBB with a friend who works at FINRA……yet never once have I found evidence of what you are accusing company officers of doing.
Please provide some definitive proof of someone "robbing" $100m?
If you are talking about "issuing" shares, spare yourself the time. But if you can somehow produce evidence that ERBB illegally profited, then I am all ears.
I'll Probably Hear Something on Saturday
My friend texted that he stopped in to Doctor's Orders the other day. He said the machine was in the medical portion. I will talk to him on Saturday about the visit
Let us know if you make it by.
Keep Green
and
ERBB On
Keep Green and ERBB On
For investors in the MJ sector, the downturn should be viewed as a blessing, especially for potential investors who were shrewd enough not to buy during the boom/hype earlier this year. For those who bought high and are still holding, ERBB's low share price presents a great opportunity to average down.
Personally, I am using this opportunity to reinvest profits and average up. My previous buy targets were in .001 increments from .015 to .01
I got a fill at .015 and have decided to hold further buying until .0125 where I will buy the whole volume at once instead of in the increments above.
As another poster mentioned, even at .015, ERBB's pps is well above the average pps over the past few years. This time last year ERBB was a wee fraction of today's share price.
This time last year the Zazzz machine was barely in existence, much less placed at several locations with signed contracts for more placements of the 2nd generation machine. Oh yeah and lets not forget the Tomassi patents. Jurassic Water. Truth Lighting. Green Universe hydro shop in Sonoma. And all the other hard work Stephen and the American Green team is accomplishing.
Keep Green
and
ERBB on
VAPE: Epic Share Price Breakdown
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VAPE&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p03393843696
This isn't a knife through butter,
It a blowtorch through butter and now the butter tray is burning too.
Another brilliant Brochstein pick at 8pps. Man that guy is absolutely toxic!
And Here Comes the October Panic
Like clockwork, the markets swoon in October. The Great Depression, Crash of 1987 and Bush's Great Recession all occurred in October. Maybe it's a self fulfilling prophecy but it seems like every year the markets get spooked.
This doesn't help ERBB or the MJ markets at all. As an investor, it stinks watching the share price erode but I am also looking to spread some money around and the lowers prices make ERBB attractive. I have changed my buy targets slightly and will not enter bids at .014 and .013 but I will wait until .0125 to buy the same volume.
"Next Quarter" Zazzz, Jurassic, Truth Numbers Are Out
According to Stephen on the Cannawebcast, Zazzz numbers should be out by next quarter and people will be pleasantly surprised.
Listen for yourself. The webcast is linked in previous posts
CannaWebcast Link -
Worst Analyst EVER. PERIOD.
Being on his buy list is like being part of a criminal organization with ERBB spokesperson and Apple fan Rex Chapman.
Let's review some of his calls:
"PHOT is one of the only legit MJ penny stocks"
Barely a month later, PHOT is halted by the SEC and the stock is decimated
"Jan 1 2014 Colorado won't provide much of a boost to the MJ markets"
Sure enough, that event has been the biggest explosion the market has seen to date.
Other Brochstein picks-
Recommended V@PE at 8 (during the retracement)
VAPE is currently at 1.4
And check the 420Investor portfolio down almost 60%!!!
Just awful
I would prefer Brochstein stay away from ERBB. Stephen Shearin mentioned to me that he and Alan had some disagreements. However, the Grenn Rush conference that Stephen spoke at the other week was also sponsored by Alan's 420Investor.
Schizophrenia? That's Utter Rubbish.
There has been absolutely minimal "long-term" LABORATORY BASED studies on cannabis use and I'm certain in saying that those who can tell you the most about long term use do not participate in these studies. It came out recently that a similar "study" linking cannabis and schizophrenia was conducted with people who used other drugs including heroin, methamphetamine and alcohol. Most studies over the past decade can also be disregarded because they were not performed with scientific or medical objectivity, but were designed with the goal of "harmful" findings for cannabis use.
While the linked "study" is all to happy to link cannabis with schizophrenia, it completely fails to link those currently diagnosed as schizophrenic with long-term us of marijuana. I am also certain in saying that the majority of schizophrenics were not completely mentally fit individuals who developed their psychological condition due to marijuana use.
And this is just one of the several barriers ERBB and the MJ industry must fight getting to market
Interesting Supposition Larson89
Clearly traders have mostly walked away from ERBB. Average daily volume had sunk to yearly lows. The majority of shorts have probably closed their positions with healthy gains after the drop from .11 and only a few bottom feeding shorts likely remain due to recent illiquidity and limited downside at ERBB's current price.
As you said, I agree that the majority of buyers these days are genuine investors who are looking to establish positions because the see the vast potential of American Green.
Some have equated investing in ERBB with "gambling" and that's a broad statement that covers a lot of markets. Stripped of any real context, putting money down with the intent of profitable returns based on a certain level of performance IS gambling, whether it's involves sports, financial markets or otherwise. Research, gut feelings, and luck is all part of the process. I've been pretty lucky in the past with my picks and I feel good about my investment in ERBB.
Doctor's Orders FaceBook Page Says They're Now Recreational
My iPhone has crapped the bed and I can't link the page but according to Doctor's Orders FaceBook page, the shop is now both medical and recreational. From what it seems, the shop is split into separate sections as many dual use shops have done. I just wonder whether the Zazzz machine is in the medical or recreational side?
Doctor's Orders is Now a Recreational Shop
In case anyone missed it, according to their FaceBook page, Doctor's Order is now a recreational MJ shop. Does that mean the 2nd Zazzz machine location is now a recreational shop? Can anyone in Denver verify whether the Zazzz machine is in the rec side or medical side of Dr's Orders? I have a contact in Denver that will be checking on Thursday but I'd love to find out sooner.
That would means all shareholders over 21 can visit Doctor's Orders in Denver and purchase MJ from a Zazzz machine. Show them some love and get some
Technical and Fundamental Fun(k) - ERBB Lost the 50
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ERBB&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p84514984508
The Technical Fun(k)
Not much good to see on today's daily chart. Even during the past 2 red trading sessions ERBB pps held the 50 day SMA but today ERBB jackknifed through the 50 all the way to the lower bollinger band.. Volume was close to the daily average which is actually higher than the past few days and weeks. An intraday drop below .0149 is possible but bringing ERBB down, especially to the August lows, may be difficult due to technical pressure and buying interest.
From a longer term bullish technical outlook, at least the 50 day SMA seems to be leveling off and the MACD isn't complete submerged in negative divergence.
Fundamental Speculations
Last month American Green issued a PR stating their 2nd generation Zazzz machine was due to be placed into multiple dispensaries across the country by October. I'm not expecting ERBB pps to explode from the confirmation of the pre-announced Zazzz machine placements but the goals in the PR need to be executed without further disruptions. Ideally, Stephen will work his craft and continue the excellent media exposure if Zazzz machine placements, especially at the Rhode Island location.
I don't think a PR would take us much higher than .022 for the short term. Maybe the November elections could provide some increased interest and I stand by my assertion that a Yes vote on Initiative 71 in D.C. would be a game charger that far exceeds the "experiments" with recreational legalization in Colorado and Washington.
I'll be a buyer at .014 and below. Not saying it goes that low but as a shareholder with a decent size holding, .014 is where is would be comfortable to add to my position.
Don't Know the Reason Behind the Cycle
I'm not sure of why that time of year has become the bullish end of the cycle. Harvest profits are probably realized the since most outdoor crops are cut and cured in September and October but I don't know if that affects the publicly traded MJ sector just yet. I think the November 2012 elections played a small role in the premature Dec 2012 rally. Of course, this year the Colorado legalization played a major role in the explosive rally from January to April. The lines outside recreational shops followed by the press coverage and announcements of millions being made by dispensaries provided compelling evidence as to the vast potential of the legal cannabis market. Needless to say there was probably some pump&dumpers and short/distorters at play throughout.
As for D.C.'s Initiative 71 the polls have it at about 2-1 in support for passing. I still think this vote is a phenomenally underestimated situation, whether it passes or not. Just like the 2012 passing of Amendment 64 legalizing cannabis in Colorado or Washington's historic legalization vote in 2012, which were mostly overlooked until actually out into effect 2 years later, the D.C. vote will have a massive impact for years to come
"Rushing" Into Anything Rarely Produces Desired Results
I would never advocate "rushing", especially when it comes to trading or investing. Picking entry points, sticking to targets and planning activity is the only way to consistently profit.
In 2012, ERBB actually popped a little prematurely in December because Colorado and Washington passed their respective recreational legalization initiative during the November 2012 election cycle. With the potential recreational legalization in the Nation's Capital being voted on in November this year, I would not be surprised if that premature pop happens again. Sure it took 2 years before the MJ equities markets really responded to the 2012 initiative in CO and WA, but with Washington, D.C. I believe this is far more significant than actually anticipated.
Please Look at this Chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ERBB&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56618404553
Bleeding? Yes. To death? Hardly. Just because a fighter bleeds doesn't mean they will lose the fight and it definitely doesn't mean they will die.
Retracements, downturns and sell-offs are all part of the game whether you're on the Big Board, Nasdaq, currency markets, derivatives....and yes even the penny stocks. Dang, in the decade plus of being an A@PL shareholder the stock has retraced from 86 to 47, 125 to 68, 300 to 78 and 700 to 370.
It's all part of the e(r)bb and flow of markets.
The ERBB chart above shows my point precisely and the point I've been trying to drive home about the cyclical nature of ERBB (and many other MJ penny plays). October to December, ERBB has put in lows followed by explosive moves to the upside from January to March.
What does 2015 have in store for us? I'm not a fortune teller or a gambler but I'm putting my money on the table, playing for another possible pop. Unlike previous years, my time frame with my MJ portfolio is open ended because this market is gaining momentum. Washington, D.C. will be voting on INITIATIVE 71 this November which would....(I can barely say this without jumping for joy)....LEGALIZE CANNABIS FOR ADULT USE IN OUR NATION'S CAPITAL
That is unbelievable. Even if it doesn't pass, it brings the issue to a national level. But if it does pass.....if it does pass, it all but ensures federal legalization and rescheduling at the very minimum. This could be the most significant positive event for cannabis since some prehistoric stoner dried the plant, set fire to it and was the first to experience the effect of this natural wonder weed.
I'm Throwing Some Money into the Wind
In other words, I'm buying some VAPE. That gap at 2.5 is just far too attractive. The volume is picking up. And that tree soiling WolfofTardStreet is barking about VAPE.
All bullish signs for me. I'm playing this one as a trade for now. If and when I make my investment back my outlook may change but I'm just not terribly impressed with the company yet.
Cyclically, NOW is the Time to Buy
The MJ markets and equities usually put in the annual lows around this time of year, October thru December followed by the highs during January through March. My November purchase last year in the sub-penny range paid for a lot of fun this year. My boat isn't quite as loaded with shares as it was last year in anticipation of Colorado's legalization, but my optimism is equal to last year.
Knox, Reading Between the Lines
I'm not sure what to make of what you said. They way you see it, ERBB could go below a penny but in the same breadth, you also expect it to hold .0125? Then you say, ERBB could rebound and go "much higher", but you also say that .10 is "another story" as if ERBB wasn't over .10 just a few months ago?
If I were a financial psychoanalyst I'd say you are closet long. If you think ERBB will probably hold .0125 that leaves only .0025-.003 to the downside and of you think it could go "much higher", then I would surmise from those statements that ERBB would be a good buy.
My personal take on ERBB right now:
A penny might be a bit too low of a downside target since I would guess a lot of buying pressure if .01 were to be on the ticker. I don't really know where ERBB could go to the upside since .11 has been reached. My high side target is .25, based on comparisons with "other" MJ "vending" companies and projected revenues from Zazzz machines.
I've been beating it to death but for the past 4 years I have trade public MJ equities, the cycle has been for the market to boom from Jan-Mar and bust from Apr-Dec. Maybe that cycle will be broken by some variable; Nov elections, profitable quarter for an MJ company, major federal policy change.....
Washington, DC is the Possible 2014 Election Bombshell
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/18/washington-dc-marijuana-legalization_n_5845942.html
Looks like INITIATIVE 71 has decent support in the polls. Let's hope this translates into some MJ marketplace fireworks. In 2012, I really thought Colorado's Amendment 64 and Washington state's adult legalization would have bumped the MJ stocks but the rally wasn't realized until this year when the laws were applied.
But I can't help to be optimistic that if our nation's capital passes Initiative 71 this could be a major spark or perhaps even the powder keg going boom. If Washington, DC allows for legal adult use, the issue will be unstoppable at a federal level. Rescheduling will be inevitable, money will start flowing.
ERBB and other cannabis stocks stand to benefit because they are first to market with significant, marketable products and services. By the time Big Tobacco, Pharma, and Alcohol get into the game, several MJ companies will have a small footprint. These big corporations will be far more likely to just snatch up companies for a couple hundred million $$$ than spend that money and more on R&D.
The same goes for investment money that will be slushing around from institutional pools. It's pretty well known that cannabis is going to be a major boom. Pharmaceutical companies know it because they spend big $$$ to lobby against legalization efforts, along with booze and tobacco $$$. But the institutional investment dollars are still sidelined. In fact, large institutions discourage their employees from even purchasing MJ equities for their personal accounts, as I have been told by a friend managing money at a global firm. Of course, all the firms are dying to bring the next FaceBook to the market; drop a few hundred million $$$ into a company...inflate the concept and potential......take it public and make a couple hundred billion $$$.
Game on folks. I'm not saying everyone should or will be rushing in. The MJ market may take a few more years to develop, as the legal cannabis market is just going though an awkward adolescent phase. ERBB will be a player soon enough. Traders, good luck making money. Investors, under .015 seems like a decent entry. I'm taking profits at .10, .20 and hopefully maybe .25 should ERBB hit those numbers. Who knows if the MJ cycles plays out as it has the past few years, but I got my money on the table.
Solid Week for American Green
A great Cannabwebcast and a worthy new hire of Jerry Chesler as in-house counsel and three straight closes above the 50 day EMA; by all means a solid week technically and fundamentally speaking.
The company continues to focus on fundamental success. For those who missed the Cannawebcast I can confirm what was already posted here; the audio will be made available sometime next week. I exchanged emails with Derwin Wallace from Cannawebcast and he stated there have been several hundred emails requesting copies of the event. The hire of Chesler expands American Green's reach across the MJ industry and reaffirms the legitimacy of the operation as a whole.
Technically ERBB has a sound week, tickling the 50 day SMA and bouncing off it nicely today. I attribute the end of week selling to day and swing traders taking profits after the recent run up. I don't think it's off to the races just yet but hopefully the 50 becomes support over the next few weeks.
There is a lot of buying pressure at these levels. Most of the smart shorts have taken profits by now. Squeezing a 1/2 penny from ERBB right now seems silly after all the good coin was made in the drop from .11 to .011. ERBB sees some big bids come in when it dips below .015. This is where I added to my position at .015 but never got filled with bids at .014 and below so I pulled them.
If you are looking at ERBB as a potential investment and are not in the stock already, below .02 is a decent entry. Maybe there will be opportunities to get in closer to .015 or even below, but this market will move fast so don't get left out.
Have a great weekend everyone. I'm off to the Shortstop for some beers and then it's time to eat some Dodger dogs at Chavez Ravine. Go Blue!
I'm Buying to Swing the 2.5 Gap
That is a fat gapper at the 2.5 range. I'm still pretty convinced this stock is garbage and Kyle is a bonehead but I could see a power mover above that gap in the next 3-6 months. I'll start buying on down days like this up until December and maybe we see the typical Q1 boom cycle that has occurred over the past few years in the MJ sector.
That Question Lacks an Understanding of Equities/Markets
According to that ill logic, why would anyone ever sell @APL or G00G? People, organizations, funds and companies are ALWAYS "selling" and buying. I would attribute today's drop to a down day for the MJ sector as a whole. Add to that the recent run ERBB has had and you'll get some day traders and swing traders taking profits. The volume is quick paltry, so this isn't a broad based sell off.
For most people ERBB is not even on the radar. In my discussions with dispensary employees and owners, most don't even know what the stock market is, much less that there is a publicly trade MJ sector. In fact, a very successful shop owner here in LA asked me "how do I even set up an investment portfolio?" It's quite shocking how little the average American knows about financial markets and this is a major reason the wealth gap keeps groaning.
We are the ground floor on ERBB. Maybe in a few years the foundation will crumble beneath our feet and ERBB will be gone. But there's just as solid a chance that ERBB builds itself into a masterpiece. I'm part of the camp that believes in the second option.
Going "Legal", Like Law, Is Subjective to Interpretation
Complete termination of federal cannabis prohibition may be a few years off but there are still all sorts of definitions of "legal." Medicinal and recreational legality are the obvious benchmarks. However, decriminalization is a form of quasi-legalization.
Perhaps the biggest and most impactful form of quasi-legalization would be federal rescheduling of cannabis. If cannabis were rescheduled to a lesser degree that may trigger an institutional rush of capital. Another significant milestone would be removing MJ from the Controlled Substance Act.
Ain't no stopping this now though. Colorado is a stunning social and economic success and there's nary a peep about Washington as that state ended cannabis prohibition. California better get something going by 2016 but the medical MJ community in that state has been one of the most vocal opponents of recreational legalization because it erodes their monopoly. Alaska and Oregon possibly voting for recreational legalization this November with more than 10 other states voting for medical legalizations.....
And ERBB has products that will be sellable in all 50 states. OGTea, Jurassic Water and Truth Lighting Systems are legal to buy in any states. Zazzz machines are currently marketed for medicinal or recreational MJ but who knows of those applications could be extended to other currently legal controlled substances as well. Plus ERBB is getting into the dispensary game....
Good times are a coming.
The Cannagricultural Revolution is Just Beginning
It seems like the industry as a whole is rebounding from the SEC shakeout and leaders are being established. IMO ERBB is one of those leaders. Based on my numbers I think a billion dollar enterprise is being developed. The projection of the US cannabis industry reach $10b by 2016 is laughably low. Cannabis is already California's largest crop and it has been for decades, legal or not. This industry is going to be an amalgamation of the liquor, pharmaceutical, textile, home goods and several other industries combined. The economic benefits could also be seen in employment as jobs are created in urban and rural agricultural and retail sectors alike.
The darkness is lifting, a new dawn approaches.
Commencing countdown, engines (ERBB) on!
Big Guy41, That's for You to Decide
First of all, if you're new to trading I'd take what you read here with a grain of salt. There are lots of different "opinions" here that are heavily biased and/or otherwise motivated by less than noble financial interests, both long and short. Having said that, I am long on ERBB and offer this "advice":
How long to hold?
That depends on whether you are trading ERBB or investing in ERBB.
If you are day trading (in and out intraday or about 48 hours) you'd be out hopefully with a decent profit since ERBB is up a decent percentage in the past few days but the only way to really profit there is to trade in volume. Sure, ERBB is up a decent percentage but it's still only 1/4 a penny and with 1m shares (a $15k position) that's about a $2500 in gains. Sounds great but it's a lot to risk and if you're willing to risk that kind of loot, I'd suggest trading other equities on the Big Board or Naz, including options.
If you are swing trading, as in trading with a slightly long time frame of a few weeks or a few months, holding ERBB depends on your entry points, target price, risk threshold and whatever other factors may influence you. This is the type of trading I am experienced with yet I usually keep the swing trading to stocks like @APL because there are derivatives and access to shorting (more on shorting below). However, with penny stocks, it is essential to take profits especially because they can go up as quickly as they crash. This has been the three year cycle with the MJ market with massive gains early in the year and a selloff throughout the rest of the year. Swing traders who are in ERBB at the start of August are looking at good profits as the stock is up almost 50% or more.
If you are an investor, you should have an unlimited time frame and you can hold until you want to take profits or when you no longer want the position/interest in the company. This is honestly where the most money is made for individuals despite what people may tell you on message boards. I am an "investor" in ERBB because I think the company is carving out a real niche in the MJ market with their "seed to sale" business plans. Although, I can afford to be less risk averse because I have paid for the position and have a great cost basis. Based upon some calculations, I do think ERBB is a good buy under .03 and has a chance to reach .25 pps or higher over the next few years, commanding a $1b plus market cap.
Some final notes;
Learn to read charts. Charts are especially important with day and swing trading. Make sure you have good Level 2 access to live quotes and charts for trading. Take the time to thoroughly learn these before committing trading capital. Avoid reading message boards while day trading and stick to charts, price action, volume and your plan.
Shorting is a big part of trading but shorting pennies can be costly and most retail brokers don't allow short positions in penny stocks. I would never recommend shorting penny stocks at lows like this even if it's a hedge for a long position. Making profits in penny stocks has a lot to do with volume of the position and a high volume short position that has barely a penny to the downside is an enormous risk. The time to short is when the stock runs up around .06 but as someone who believes ERBB/American Green has potential to be a large cap company, I think the real run could be as high as .25
Good luck on your trading/investing or market participation. One last parting word; never pay another person for financial advice. It sort of flys in the face of urging caution about free advice like mine or other messages on free forums, but you are the only one who knows your financial objectives, risks and such. More significantly, you are the one who has the biggest stake in your financial goals.