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ok...thanks, just an idea. I'm with my smartphone and couldn't check
Even if you try to picture a different character your real nature often emerge.
"I sold last Friday, hope you got my shars of IPCI"
Rude.
The difference between you and all the Others in this board (notable exceptions WZ and aLmtaP or whatever is his name) is that you really seem to compete against someone else.
Strange...or maybe not.
So...
from an initial indication of reporting being released on 13march (with Sprot complaining about the CFO being so long),
then the possible 24 of Feb, like Doog posted, referring to Nasaq website (http://www.nasdaq.com/earnings/report/ipci#ixzz4YE0eOnhg
)
we got results today !
When was it released last year ?
If they really anticipated what was planned to be realesed in the coming weeks, and considering we don't have any positive surprise,
the question is: why anticipate "bad" news or supposedly "bad" or relatively "bad" ?
Call it contrarian thinking.
And...looks to me SO FAR has been considered by the market a good buying opportunity.
Tek,
they attended Biotech ShowcaseTM conference on January 11, 2017. It was announced on the 29th of december.
I do agree that if we don't hear about other evenets in the near future it could be an hint at the fact they don't need to attend .
Amigo, thanks for your detailed answer.
Just to clarify my thoughts: I'm not a pumper and I wasn't expecting the price to currently be at..let's say 10 (just to put an high number).
But, you have to concede that each step you accomplish towards the target (so reducing the number of uncertain variables) you should expect the valuation to slightly move upward. no?
If you are @ 3 with 2 doses of facalin approved, and then you are below 3@ with all the achievements made over the last 12 months, then it looks illogical. But market can be irrational, we know.
so, do we have the uncertainties you mentioned?; sure we do.
Have uncertain variables been reduced someway over the last months (without going into details) ? Yes, they have.
So it's pretty simple to me: more accomplishments, less uncertainties cannot be equal to LESS value. That's it. IPCI should be at 4 or 4.50, because we are going to close 2017 more than likely with a profit.
I really appreciate your contribution, but please don't get me wrong: it's illogical to progressively reach some milestones and see the company value lower than 3 yrs ago, and being shorted on each good news (which doesn't mean that it should have bounced big and fly).
Thanks Samsa, perfectly catched.
Oxycodone looks no more an hot topic, patent secured is a non-event, Mallinkdroct deal ...just marginal, focalin residual doses...already expected.
I won't sell a single share, since I am one of the last "believer" in IPCI growth prospects.
But I respect everybody analysis and opinion, this is just my voice on the fact the IPCI looks like just not being in the biotech realm of investing.
biotech means risk; with risk comes reward or failure.
Many here are analysing IPCI looking for safe aspects, for reassuring elements, in a word...for certainty.
instead IPCI does belong to the opposite kind: risky, uncertain (even if somewhat limited). But you keep on reading of people waiting to buy or increase until major transaformation occurs. And maybe IPCI is not going to explode, never, but I just don't why someone invests into a biotech, expecting all those characteristics that usually you don't fine in ultra small cap biotechs.
I just don't get it.
Sprot,
it's a neverending discussion.
The market will tell.
What I'm saying is that you, and many Others, are legittimally valuing and considering IPCI as a value company - which by the way it is not (so no value = sell or short or wait).
This is exactly where the dicotomy between Pharma companies and biotech investors perspective creates the opportunity for huge profits.
The incredible premiums from time to time paid by the big pharma to buy a small biotech are there to demonstrate that many times a biotech is paid for perspective/risky future growth and not at p/e multiples.
So I don't know if ipci is going to be that kind of bet for a big pharma. Surely each one of us has to follow his own gut and adapt to his own risk profile.
I see that the major part here are using p/e projections and obsessive earnings attention. That is ok to me. I respect that.
But for all those who can have access to investment banking modelling for biotech (and I am one of those) it is well known that biotechs are modelled based on:
drugs in pipeline
-- expected peak sales for that drug in 3 to 5 yrs
-- probability analysis about the drug receiving final approval (based on level of trials, FDA actions, etc)
-- discounting the peak sales x probability of being approved, with the discount rate being the higher the more risky is the process
-- scenario analysis to determine the most likely scenario
-- sum of parts (more than one drug) when appropriate.
So you see the disconnect between many of those who write here and the approach usually taken by practice.
But let me clear: Disconnect is not good or bad, right or wrong; it is what makes eventually the opportunity for BIG gains or BIG losses. it's part of the game. Conservative vs aggressive. It depends on the risk profile and other elements.
In conclusion:
big pharma looking for biotechs are usually searching for growth (more than value).
Those investing in biotechs are usually looking for growth more than value.
Those investing in IPCI are looking for value (earnings, with the word "now" attached).
Who is right ? Only time will tell.
After reading the last dozen of posts I realised that IPCI believers are now just a few. I think psicologhe and lack of company communication is slowly destroying confidence in the company.
10mln upfront for Rexista is now considered high end. Well we will probably get shorted bravely with that number.
When you speak profit you hear costs.
And then Ipci has nothing hot...oxy issues are already solved.
So no surprise. As sadly wrote back I see the buyout as the only wayout.
When FDA blocked Focalin we made -25?, when ipci announced par starting to deliver the new doses...Nothing or sglightly negative...We already knew I read.
Every position is legitimate, absolutely. But this stock is going to do good all at once, exactly because each event is a non event, or a mild event or a positive with more negatives. So why invest in ipci? Looking a growth company through P/e lenses?
And do not forget the Group which is controlling the price since and will keep on doing it.
Hope for the buyout to come after next 2 Andas approved and before Rexista approval.
Jmho
I was thinking about Odidi and the next conference he is attending.
Looks like he is considered one of the expert on the subject. In someway it makes more confident about Rexista labeling and possibly Podras.
Not a catalyst for in upward but not even a reason for a downward action.
Look at TRVN, SCYX, CARA...And tell me what they have more than ipci
My point Angelo: with one or two Andas approval before Rexista final decision and we get serious money for little IPCI.
Wimus, you are right and I am aware of the possible issues ...but when you have like 7yrs this just tells that something is wrong in the process, besides the forces who can use the process to their advantage.
That september indication for clearing the backlog seems hot air to me; there likely are so many exceptions and special issues that the major part of the backlog will maintain its status.
Reason I bring tha ANDAs delay up once again is that we some approval we would have had more cash and definitively put the dilution fear aside.
Probably we would be hostage as we are of those quant and non-quant flippers...but the more cash you have in hands the stronger you get at the negotating table.
Let's hope an announcement is around the corner (and that the corner is a small one LOL)
We recently passed the 7yrs wait threshold for Effexor ANDA.
By June Protonix and Glucophage will reach the same remarkable results.
Thanks FDA. 7 years for a generic drug approval; needless to say there could be a well grounded set of explanations...but come on..this is insane.
Come on Garden,
there are plenty of examples (some of them I mentioned to you already) where a big news was released without being preceded by price action, and particularly in the biotech world.
So you can be right 50/50; and if I remember well you said you are out (you sold everything).
I know your point of view, just don't reiterate it on any given day !
And by the way, there's no just Fibonacci in TA, I think you know that...so I don't understand why you are obsessively referring to it like if it was the holy Graal.
Still the partnership to be announced.
we have 2 main scenarios about that:
- if it is linked to acceptance we may hear about the Agreement even this evening or Tomorrow at maximum (72h needed for a material events to be communicated to the market)
- if it is linked to some other event then we will have to wait potentially until approval, but that would be an enormous error if negotiated that way.
So right now 50/50 we get somthing big by Tomorrow; not the best time to sell today.
But I maybe wrong .
Concerning ANDAs...I think FDA will approve one of them per year, instead of per month, as they should. Why? Since they are paid to allow big pharma the max profits possible
Numbers your DD is invaluable.
Thanks sooooo much !!
WZ Happy to hear you back. Each time means an increase in ipci share price.
Two questions:
1)are u implying that labeling is dependant on patent expiration ?
2)are u saying that COLL drug for oral abuse will be approved before Rexista? Was NDA already filed?
TIA
More than happy to meet you in vegas as well. I really like your deep analysis and very insightful elaborations.
Please keep on with your precious suggestion, I will personally thank you once we meet.
Also I will share your great investment ability with all IH boards.
Good idea ??
Angelo, I am Italian, living in Switzerland.
Really would love to be part of the 10$ Vegas party. I'll try my best.
The only definitive indication you can have will be coming from the hopefully next to be released partnership announcement:
if the partner is Purdue, then likely to have no lawsuit.
with any other partner you still can have Purdue trying to get themself even worse in the eyes of the community...but it sure can happen
Thanks Angelo,
you are right, patience is the word here.
Now let's see what happen with the partnership.(Teva, Purdue and Mallinckdrot... will likely be one of them).
Would pay to have an heavy ANDA approved before partnership Agreement, just to clear the cash needs issue ...like for ever.
After partnership: I strongly hope to see the 12% Odidi's loan diseapper right away and the shelf program withdrwn.
GLTY Angelo,
you are certainly one of the people on this board I would love to know in person.
funny (or sadly) ...for IPCI it's never a good news. There is Always the dark side of the story (may the strenght be with us. LOL)
to me there's more...price action is manipulation at its purest level.
Someone wants Odidis out, and they are showing the stock is not going anywhere, since they completely control it.
Only way out...the buyout.
end of story.
Sorry guys, I'm taking a pause with this stock (I'm NOT SELLING) ...just waiting for the TROLL to come back and tell me he was right about shorting...and also ironically advised him to short at the opening, in leverage...
GLTA
so they are shorting the news...apparently.
or they are selling the news (conceptually the same)
I see...expectations were for an acceptance and a first-in-history contextual approval. LOL
Beyond ridicolous.
But now we know there is no p3 for sure...so Odidi doesn't look that bad; and we are partnering...and then...Regabatin (with another partnership).
Buyout over the week end is currently my wildest dream (not the only one LOL)
So far..shorts are not covering and buyers are at the bar . LOL
Let's see what happens when volume kicks in.
Still want the short to be crashed overnight with a monster partnership/buyout kind
Ehi Smart,
those who know me in this board do know what I meant with my msg.
I really hope that guy is shorting even his house against IPCI
I would short 50K shares at least; ask your broker. I advise to use a leveraged account as well. Best way to increase your profit.
Regarding timing: I would say, today at the opening it's perfect...but absolutely to do before any partnerhsip announcement.
And lastly: a screenshot of your trade would be much appreciated, so that everybody here can see how good you are in your prediction.
Samsa, if you are right about the path of NDA choose, no Rdl to avoid possible Purdue lawsuit, then we can take Purdue out of potential partners.
Would like to see all the And a partnered in one time... Maybe with an extension with Mallinckdrot
Strongly agree Cysonic, Regabating is currently valued at zero...But it will soon come centre stage.
So for a small cap like ipci we will have another huge catalyst. Sooner or later market will see how much value there is in the pipeline.
Let's hope for a stunning partnership
2bln mkt cap in 3 yrs ?? I can wait...For a life changer.
Please go back to your rewarding stock. We got your enlightening opinion. Thanks
Price action is becoming interesting.
Insiders seem to signal something good is to come in the future.
So let's hope for good results and possibly some update on their strategy.
You mean...Rexist. 3.28 ? LOL
Purdue has to make a move, otherwise will finish its money in lawsuits.
Their image is terrible and going constantly down, so either thay make some important strategic move (like becoming the paladins against opioids abuse, and maybe not only opioid) or they will get crushed...in some years, but crushed (JMHO).
They should probably have no problem at all in terms of cash; and they are not listed...so they do not have to take comprises with markets forces and comply with market regulations.
If it's not IPCI, it is another palyer. They HAVE TO MAKE A MOVE.
JMO
Amigo,
I prefer to adopt your conservative view, but for the sake of critic analysis:
"Your mgmt isn't showing the markets why the tech is worth billions and what the possibilities are. Your mgmt isn't working with the right investors and analysts to get the message out. "
Yes, but we don't know if they are showing to possible bidders, instead of to the markets (and it wouldn't surprise me)
"The market is telling you it isn't happening here (yet). "
This was true also for all the cases like Tobira, Relypsa, recently Conatus...what the market was telling then was that there was nothing to happen.
I repeat...I prefer a conservative approach, just saying we cannot exclude anything from our outside perspective
And just to say how odd are big pharma transaction, look at what happened with Tobira,
some weeks after failing it's primary endpoint in pII (with the stock hammered from 11.5 to below 5), it was bought out at...35+contingencies (last trade before delisting was @42 just 3 months after the pII results).
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160725005384/en/Tobira-Therapeutics-Announces-Clinically-Statistically-Significant-Improvement
This is just to say that everything is possible, from a transformational Agreement to a disappointing one.
the wait is about to be over
GLTA
Just to add some points:
1) I see many of you when considering a possible (I'm not discussing how likely) takeover are looking at cash available for potential bidders: just take in mind that there could also be transaction with a component made of shares
2) buyout or no-buyout is somewhat misleading; it's the kind of partnership; Angelo stressed it out many times, and over the last 12months we had live examples: a multiple step Agreement it's the facto leading into a buyout in 2yrs or so. We Rexista+Podras, Regabatin (Lyrica), ANDAs portfolio. If the partnership is transformational we will be able to see approximately if the buyout is coming
In conclusion: we will have to make our DD as soon as the Agreement comes out. I have the feeling that this stock won't be in a steadily increasing path, but eventually a 3 or 4 big jumps (and a lot of shorting after the first 2 jumps)
JMHO
from today's company presentation, pag 23, 6mln Usd of the conv debt have been released as of 27jan.
We know the shares count went up to 18Mln (as of 25of Jan).
Rough calculation 16Mln new shares for a total of 6Mln Usd = avg price of conversion around 0.4
I still belive the floor HAS to be 0.80 (which was the initially set up 0.05 floor reversed after the R/S)
IPCI Special Protocol
Are we sure FDA didn't adopt a special protocol just for IPCI...like , say an NDA 83days Approval Letter
or
LA ANDA (Last to be Approved Anda) ??
LOL