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Uh wave 4? LOL
Yeah I guess maybe you nailed it git. Add divergence via a good macd indi or pennies TDI indicator and it should be easy then right? lol For anyone but me maybe....
Yeah git, wave counting is sort of like babysitting, but then so is any other method of trading imo. Wave counting is tough or everybody would be profitable all the time by counting simple waves on the charts which are seldom to be easily identified; at least seldom by me. Pennies is consistantly profitable at wave counting, whereas I'm not.
I think lines of support and resistance are far, far easier to trade from, but they too can be off enough where exact price stops are concerned to throw traders into traps. Fibs are approximates too usually. I think the easiest way to trade is to wait for extreme price movements to occur and then when the price hits a line of support or resistance following a fast and furious extreme price movement, go in and cross your fingers. Pennies would disagree with me though. lol
Hi git......your comments are welcomed! The expanding triangle you mention would go along with pennies wave 4 wouldn't it?
Regarding the 50 fib? I see it observed so seldom by price that I mostly ignore it myself. It always seems like everything is extreme in forex, so I'm always looking for .76 fibs to get hit and a little more.
I don't doubt that he can jav....I just wish I could post a dependable wave count chart. lol
Both 1 and 4 hour, but I'm using the highest high on both time frames as an end to the prior wave up and the begining of new wave counts on both time frames. Primarily the 4 hour chart though.
Another thing jav......I'm looking back through, or backtesting trading off the AU 1 hour chart using the high/low method and I see where even though the highs/lows are observed by price, there can be long periods of sidetrending as those Highest Highs or Lowest Lows are tested and retested allowing for bad trades if one's not careful to set stops. Wave counts can't help but help in addition to the high/low trading.
Jav....according to the vid author Todd Mitchell, we'd take a short in the .50 fib level, but I'm not risking 150 or more pips if it either moves up to the .76 fib level or turns out to be a failed trend reversal. And here's where wave counting comes into play.....if pennies 5th wave evolves here then the fib based entry changes too. I'm just watching from sidlines waiting for a 5th wave down to go long on for the bounce or a .76 fib level up to get hit at around $1.0645 for a small short entry on a potential bearish trend reversal. All subject to change of course.
That's how I see it jav. Unless and until the price moves above your MRAH, then the bias is bearish.
Me too jav. I want to be able to fully understand both methods of charting for sake of finding agreement between wave counts and high/low lines. Especially when the EW counting can get complicated when you get into the sidetrending waves within waves. It's hard enough for me to see well defined 1-5 waves at times without getting into the more complicated secondary minor waves.
Thanks jav, the AU chart was the one I was looking for. I'm refreshing my memory and watching the first vid again. It's not rocket science, as the saying goes, but it takes getting used to.
Pennies doesn't get it wrong very often jav and he will eventually get it right in the end. Me, I'm learning steadily from him but waves can get complicated to read accurately at times and tough to trade from too at times, ie. extended 5th waves. I'm no match for his EW counting powers. lol And what's really sad is that when I'm right in my wave count, I don't trust myself enough to trade off it, and then when I get it wrong, that's when I take the trade. I'm down .02 cents for the day from 4 trades. It's sad really.
Ah....well sorry I couldn't help more.
Post #84894 jav. At least I believe that's the one you're wanting for pennies 4 hour chart.
Jav.....thanks for posting the annotated high/low chart! So maybe there's more upside to AU based on the fact alone that the MRAL wasn't compromised huh? Maybe, but I'm not long at this point....just watching from sidelines.
What does Oanda have to say about EU right now SG? And what is their target on it?
The 1.78 fib is at 1.0826 so I wouldn't be shocked if it made it there.
Depends on which time frame I'm looking at and lines of resistance etc.....but I'll say one thing about A/U......there sure is some obvious divergence on the weekly chart that makes it appear to be really toppy in a longer term sense of some nearing reversal.
I've been short all week on A/U, hopping in and out with profit till now. But I see now by the weekly chart with a bullish reversal doji candle on that weekly chart that I should have just gone long from the open of this weeks candle. I'd have been up 175 pips instead of 50 and be in an ok spot instead of bucking the trend with my current short position which is at a 50 pip loss for me now, making my balance even for the week but looking lousy for the start of next week if I can't get back to even by close of market tomorrow. And right now, it's looking as if I won't be able to. I guess I could just cut my losses here, but as you said it is at the 1.618 fib. So I'll let it move up to the next fib level at 1.78 or whatever it is. lol
That's alright git, I've kinda jacked up my paltry gains for the week and am at about even since the begining of the week and nearly at a loss now.
Please do share git! Oh and what's it telling you now about A/U? I'm under 20 pips on it at the moment and I'm curious as to whether that spike up earlier following news was the end of it or just the begining. lol
Not very comforting outlook kiwisteve! Problem is the only thing I have to sell is my vehicles and I don't even own one of those outright yet. I'm underwater on my mortgage and living month to month like most lower middle incomers. Thanks for the maybe sound advice though. I just hope you prove to be wrong in your outlook!
Thanks stargate. I'm very curious as to what silver is going to do since I have a little from when I was given a silver dollar on each of my birthdays upon turning 12 while growing up. I should have been accumulating the damn things instead of wasting my money on new car payments after moving out on my own. And having hit that high of near $50 on a huge spike up, it makes me even more curious. It's not moved parallel to gold and that really surprises me. It does seem to be consolidating in this area but I'm totally lost as to what it's going to do from here.
Ready for what stargate? eom
Yep git, no one group of Americans are soley respsonsible. Attorneys on the behalf of bankers, hedge funds, corporations, insurance companies and many others.....political interest groups, legislators, labor unions and employee interest organizations......too many people have been serving up poisoned sweets for the masses for a long time now. Every one has had their hands in the greed bucket. And the same shit that is going on in London right now is probably what we get to look forward to in the states. Pray the answer isn't a "civilian militia" that Obama was campaigning for or we turn into the nations we've not wanted to be and in a short period of time. Life as we know it will "change". He also told us that the retirees would need to do their part in his campaigning. Guess the good ol' days are over huh?
Check this out.....
""UPDATE 7-British riots spread on third night of violence
British riots spread on third night of violence
9:31pm EDT
Potent mix of cuts, unemployment could fuel more UK riots
11:50am EDT
Fears of more violence after worst London riots for years
Sun, Aug 7 2011
Spending cuts, police lay behind UK riot, locals say
Sun, Aug 7 2011
At least 16 Syria protesters killed on Ramadan Friday
Fri, Aug 5 2011Analysis & OpinionAsia – A Week in Pictures 7 August 2011
Mon Aug 8, 2011 9:29pm EDT
* Third night of clashes in London
* Rioting, looting spread across British capital
* Youths laugh, hurl bottles at police
* Looting breaks out in three other cities
(Adds Liverpool, Bristol, colour from Woolwich, Ealing)
By Stefano Ambrogi and Mohammad Abbas
LONDON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Rioting and looting spread across and beyond London on Monday as hooded youths set fire to cars and buildings, smashed shop windows and hurled bottles and stones at police in a third night of violence in Britain's worst unrest in decades.
Prime Minister David Cameron cut short his holiday to fly home to tackle the violence, which appeared to be led by mobs of young people who coordinated their attacks through mobile phones, and spread to the Midlands city of Birmingham, the northwestern city of Liverpool and Bristol late on Monday.
Many of the looters came from areas of high unemployment that are also suffering from cuts in social services and said they felt alienated from society. Police and politicians said they were simply criminals.
"It's been building up for years. All it needed was a spark," said E. Nan, a young man in a baseball cap surrounded by other youths in Hackney in east London. "We ain't got no jobs, no money ... We heard that other people were getting things for free, so why not us?"
The violence erupted late on Saturday in London's northern Tottenham district when a peaceful protest over the police shooting of a suspect two days earlier was followed by outbreaks of looting and arson.
By Monday, the violence had spread to parts of the south of the city, including Clapham Junction, one of London's busiest railway junctions, Woolwich in the capital's southeast, Ealing in west London and the southern suburb of Croydon.
Rioting spreading beyond the capital, and police said they arrested about 100 people in Birmingham after looters smashed shops and stole goods. Police reported looting and damage in Liverpool and "copy-cat violence" in Bristol in the southwest.
In Hackney, a multi-ethnic area in east London close to the site of next year's Olympic Games, hooded youths set fire to rubbish bins and pushed them down a street towards police, while hurling bottles and bricks.
Many laughed as they ran back when police charged them.
In a street thick with smoke, looters smashed their way into a local shop, stealing whisky and beer. One man grabbed a packet of cereal, another ran off laughing with four bottles of whisky.
"The kids don't have any respect for the police or for property. It's sad for the people who live round here," said one middle-aged local resident, who declined to give his name.
In the poor southeast London district of Woolwich, dozens of locals of all ages and colours looted shops and set at least two buildings on fire, leaving the streets strewn with broken glass and clothes, a Reuters reporter said.
Mobile phone, sports goods and clothing boutiques were the looters' favoured targets, followed by jewellers and pawnshops, he said. Several young men strolled by, balancing flat-screen televisions and computer consoles on their heads. The thinly stretched police were unable to prevent the looting.
In Peckham, a poor area of south London, flames leapt into the air from a torched building and rubble was strewn across the street.
A Reuters witness saw two people break into a shop and rip a 50-inch plasma television off the wall. A youth in a balaclava carried the screen away, to applause from the watching crowd.
Cameron's office said he would cut short his holiday in Italy to chair a crisis meeting, amid growing calls from the public for officials to take control of the situation.
Police had arrested 215 people before Monday's violence, according to Home Secretary Theresa May, and late on Monday police said they had arrested about 100 people in Birmingham and nearly 240 in London.
"The violence we've seen, the looting we've seen, the thuggery we've seen, this is sheer criminality ... these people will be brought to justice, they will be made to face the consequences of their actions," May said.
"SENSELESS"
Despite a heavy presence on some streets, police appeared unable to contain the violence as rioters who had initially coordinated through mobile phones and Twitter became increasingly confident.
Monday's looting began in the afternoon as workers were returning home, many of them forced to walk as buses to areas hit by rioting were cancelled.
In Hackney, youths in brown hoods posed for pictures in front of a burning car on a street corner. "I don't know why they are doing this," said a middle-aged woman who lived nearby. "It's senseless ... they are just cacking on their own doorstep."
The BBC said the Hackney clashes broke out after police stopped and searched a man.
In Clapham, another Reuters witness saw dozens of youths carrying away looted television sets and other electrical goods. He heard two of them discussing the number of Playstation 3s they had stolen, and shouting at another young man to return and get more.
Looters hid their stolen goods in bins and behind the low walls of the Victorian terraced houses typical of Clapham. A large pile of boxed Blackberry phones rested by one wall.
Government officials branded rioters as opportunistic criminals and said the violence would not affect preparations for next summer's Olympic Games.
But the television pictures of rioting and blazing buildings, combined with disarray in the transport network, were likely to dent the capital's image as Britain struggles to avoid an economic recession.
Some commentators described the disturbances as a cry for help from poor areas reeling from the government's harsh austerity cuts to tackle a big budget deficit, which has led to steep cuts in youth services and other facilities.
"It's very sad to see ... But kids have got no work, no future and the cuts have made it worse. These kids are from another generation to us and they just don't care," said Anthony Burns, 39, an electrician from Hackney. "You watch. It's only just begun."
Officials said there was no excuse.
"It was needless, opportunistic theft and violence, nothing more, nothing less. It is completely unacceptable," said Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg.
In Ealing, people in a residential street told a Reuters reporter hooded youths had walked along smashing car windows. "About 150 at least came down here, hitting every single car, all in hoodies, screaming and shouting," said one resident who declined to give his name. (Additional reporting by Adrian Croft, Mohammed Abbas, Matt Falloon, Avril Ormsby and Jon Hemming; Writing by Tim Pearce)"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/09/britain-riot-idUSL6E7J80H020110809
You summed it up well git......but don't forget to mention that part of the reason we're a consumer nation instead of manufacture is because our government has allowed, turned a blind eye and encouraged american citizens taking their businesses overseas for the slave labor it provides and the inflated bloated false values of their stock. That's how I see it anyway. OH and inflation??? I know I'm paying a hell of a lot more for everything over what I paid 20 years ago! Rate of inflation? Oh, I'd say 10% or greater a year. And you don't watch tv for free anymore, so you have to add that into the inflation rate even if gas and food hasn't gone up 10% annually. Everything adds up to 10% or greater I'd expect. But what do I know....
I'm thinking, and feeling, the same git about the wave 1. I'll take what I can get as I can get it, but I'll be trading like a coyote in the hen coop; skittish as hell.
I'm not going to even get on the soapbox SG. It would make no difference, and would frustrate me moreso to take the time to put down all the gross errors in fiscal maneuvers and lawmaking mistakes on the part of the leaders of our nation while thinking about the disasterous direction this nation is headed thanks to the two major political parties outspending each other over the last decade at the expense of me, my retirement funds and my childrens quality of life for many decades to come imo. Of course I am only one of hundreds of millions who will share the same shitty outcome. And yet so far, it is still the best country on the planet to live in. Though that's always subject to "change".
I sure don't have much faith in them. Not that my opinions matter much to the geniuses that created the national deficit and are unapologetic about it.
Quite the continuation of a nasty fall for the INDU today huh? Anyone think that all the kings horses, and all the kings men, can put Humpty Dumpty back together again?
Our own government better do it too and even disallow selling of corporate stock period! Not that it would create jobs or lower the federal deficit, but at least it might help prevent the masses from losing everything they've been pooring into their retirement accounts for the last 10 years or so. Social security is screwed regardless.
Let's see........less Americans employed = less Americans paying into the federal income tax collection coffers = less federal debt being payed off by the masses of taxpayers without raising taxes significantly on those who still are employed? Huh? That doesn't make sense!
Oh yeah, I got an answer! Make the wealthy pay more in taxes than ever before! Oh wait, how can the wealthy be forced to pay higher taxes when they simply take their corporations off the north American continent along with their money and raise product pricing to accomodate their losses? Well I don't have an answer for that one. Hmmmmm
Hey pennies.....I wish I had missed the "fun". I lost all of the weeks gains this morning from a few loser positions this morning on U/C. The 15 minute U/C chart presented the same shake that A/U did before popping up to recoup most of the days losses. But, I don't have the TDI indi at present for sake of divergence recognition, and I traded U/C wrong both ways this morning. Would have been nice to have your input this morning it seems. Maybe next week will go a little better...
"Greece in panic as it faces change of Homeric proportionsFear is driving a silent bank run in Greece – but some see the government's austerity plans as a chance to transform
Share2474 reddit this Aditya Chakrabortty guardian.co.uk, Monday 1 August 2011 20.11 BST Article history
Taxi drivers run from teargas during clashes on the island of Crete, Greece. Photograph: Image Photo Services/AP
In one of the biggest banks in the centre of Athens a clerk is explaining how his savers have been thronging to pull out their cash.
Wary of giving his name, he glances around the marble-floored, wood-panelled foyer before pulling out a slim A4-sized folder. It is about the size of a small safety-deposit box – and those, ever since the financial crisis hit Greece 18 months ago, have become the most sought-after financial products in the country. Worried about whether the banks will stay in business, Greeks have been taking their life savings out of accounts and sticking them in metal slits in basement vaults.
The boxes are so popular that the bank has doubled the rent on them in the past year – and still every day between five and 10 customers request one. This bank ran out of spares months ago. The clerk leans over: "I've been working in a bank for 31 years, and I've never seen a panic like this."
Official figures back him up. In May alone, almost €5bn (£4.4bn) was pulled out of Greek deposits, as part of what analysts describe as a "silent bank run". This version is also disorderly and jittery, just not as obvious. Customers do not form long queues outside branches, they simply squirrel out as much as they can. Some of that money will have been used to pay debts or supplement incomes, of course, but bankers put the sheer volume of withdrawals down to a general fear about the outlook for Greece, one that runs all the way from the humble rainy-day saver to the really big money.
'Clueless' government
"Every time the markets move, I get phone calls," says an Athens-based fund manager. "They're from investors asking: 'How can I get my money out of the country?' "
One senior investment banker is more blunt: "People are scared that the government doesn't know what the fuck it's doing." He tells a story about an acquaintance who took out €30,000, wrapped it in a bag and stashed it in his garage. "The bag had previously had some food inside," he says. "So it attracted rats, who ate the notes."
Bags of money in garages, frightened savers fleeing banks and even the country: these aren't the sort of stories you associate with a comparatively-prosperous European country, but with a developing one facing a life-or-death economic crash. The fact that they are now emerging from Greece not only indicates the scale of financial distress, it suggests something else: Greece today looks like parts of Latin America in the worst moments of its financial crisis.
In an echo of the days of Jim Callaghan, the International Monetary Fund is back in Europe, doing what it is more accustomed to doing in Buenos Aires or Brasilia: making emergency loans and telling the government how to run its economy. What is more, the scale of the changes an overborrowed Athens is now making are so vast and so rapid that they will leave Greece looking like a different country.
The government itself describes its plan to slash public spending and jack up taxes as one of the most ambitious deficit-reduction programmes in the world. But what often goes missing from this discussion of a fiscal crash-landing is the impact on the lives of citizens who have precious little time to adjust. When salaries of civil servants are slashed by up to 30% within a few months, as happened last year, and over 20% of public-sector workers face unemployment within the next four years – plus whole swathes of national assets are to be privatised before Christmas, with more job losses doubtless to follow – then you are talking about a wholesale transformation of a workforce.
Greece is already one of the poorest and most unequal societies in Europe, reckons Christos Papatheodorou at the Democritus University of Thrace. Among the few countries that look worse are Romania, Bulgaria and Latvia. So what will Greek society look like after the government's austerity measures take effect? He pauses, then says: "It will probably look like a developing country."
That message has not been lost on workers either: one of the new nouns used by trade union members and others who oppose the cuts is kinezopeisi, or China-isation. The claim is that such large drops in wages will lead to a workforce paid barely more than their counterparts in Shenzhen.
The oddest thing of all is that some of the leading lights in the government appear to see nothing wrong in a wholesale transformation of Greek society, albeit not into one that resembles an enterprise zone in eastern China. Elena Panaritis is widely tipped as one of the up and comers in Greece's government, and it is not hard to see why: smart, formidably well-trained in economics after a career with the World Bank, funny and fluent in English, she is exactly the sort of person any prime minister would choose to give a keynote address to fretful institutional investors.
And for a Greek politician involved in pushing through some of the most abruptly painful economic measures in the country's history, she does not seem especially Greek. When I observe how many Apple computers are in her office, she replies: "That's because I'm not Greek, I'm American." Her speech is American-accented and peppered with "darn" and "have a nice day". [See footnote] When asked to describe how Greece needs to change its economy, her answer revolves around changing its institutions and its structures – in other words, making Greece less Greek. Castigating the bureaucracy, she says: "It's not a kibbutz, it's a big country!"
This is a line that you hear often enough from those who want Greece to change. By European standards, Greece has an average-sized public sector, but a very leaky tax collection system. What the public sector is, however, is under-resourced and inefficient. On my last day in the country, I wangle my way inside a public pensions office for those working in the tourism industry: there are just two Dell computers in one large room, and lever-arch files dating back 30 years. No one ever paid for the data to be computerised, I am told, and the result is that one day's work takes three.
Private sector woes
The other big problem is in the private sector, with few industries that are able to pay their way in the world. Jason Manolopolous, who is author of a new book called Greece's 'Odious' Debt, says that for years Greece was buying more from the rest of the world than it was selling. "We were buying BMWs from the Germans and selling them tomatoes."
For now, those days are well and truly over. In Athens' upmarket shopping district of Kolonaki, boutiques that used to have waiting lists for designer handbags have shut. One sign says the owners have relocated – to Rome. In one clothes shop, with racks of discounted Calvin Klein and DKNY, the manager, Sav, explains what's happened: "In this crisis, the middle classes have been hollowed out." That is just what happened in Buenos Aires during its crash last decade.
The result is that people who thought themselves used to one way of life, and in one social class, are getting used to a sharp downgrade.
In one factory, where a staff of 200 is now down to 30, the manager points to empty floors and idle machines. They're now all on unemployment benefit, he says. "Mind you, our pay has been cut too, so we're not that far off."
Outside the soup kitchen of the Aghia Triada church in Piraeus, near Athens, more of Greece's new poor are waiting for a handout. Anna and her two daughters have walked in the midday sun to get here and are now queueing up with the long-term homeless.
That is not Anna's situation though; she lost her job three years ago but has still hung on to her house. That said, she no longer has the income or the benefits to pay bills and the electricity was cut off last month.
Inside, Pater Daniel, the head priest, says that he's noticed a lot more "well-dressed, clean" people taking free meals from the church. He reels off stories of a 23-year-old man who left last week for Australia, and a 40-year-old woman who lost her job on Friday.
Because the Greek Orthodox church is partly on the state payroll, the clergyman's salary has fallen by almost 10% to €15,000 a year.
Is he saying that the Orthodox church is also subject to public spending cuts? Pater Daniel laughs, then holds up five fingers: there are five priests in Piraeus, and soon there will only be one. He's pondering taking a second job.
"There is too much pain, and people are looking for someone to listen and squeeze their hand." He sighs. "Everyday I leave this church with a headache.""
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/01/greece-panic-change
Well there's the 100 plus pip move on U/C that I expected to see overnight. And it's trading right where I closed out my small loss. So what happened there....the great headfake shakeout and now it begins a 1000 pip move up? Or is it just pulling back before it begins another wave down? What the hell kind of pattern would you call that on the 1 and 4 hour charts?
Thanks stargate. Every reason you gave was a sound reason. I took my small loss already.
Why stargate?
Taking a long here on U/C in hopes the bottom holds for a good bounce.
Wow.....I fully expected to see a big 100 pip or greater price movement overnight one direction or the other on U/C but it's made neither a new high or low since I went to bed last night.
The 15 minute looks bearish to me, the hour looks bullish and the 4 hour looks to be consolidating still. Looking pretty bearish to me right now though based on teh angle of the bollie lines of the 15 minute chart alone...
Missed it pennies......I took a food break. I'll be around off and on, but I need to get some things done myself...