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The prognosis of a high grade glioma is no better. Sorry, I'm not buying.
After further thought, direct wouldn't be an effective booster without the ability to introduce it to the cancer material. However, I still contend it is doubtful L would work for this purpose either. It seems to me that L simply slows down the progression, it is not a cure. Also, I don't know a lot about the mutation of cancer cells, but from what I have read, it doesn't seem logical to expect the tumor material from one type to be effective in preventing another type, or a very different variation of the same type of cancer down the road. I think what makes cancer so hard to eradicate is its ability to evolve and escape.
As you can probably tell, I'm not in the medical field. I am trying to study and ask questions and wrap my head around all of this. If you were to tell me that Direct could be a better alternative for end stage patients, add survival time, better quality of life, etc., I can buy all of that. I also think it may do amazing things for a very very small percent of folks, but to expect more than that just isn't reasonable IMO.
In your opinion, why is it that cancer eventually overcomes the L vaccine? Do you think it is possible the cancer mutates to a point, where it is different enough from the original sample used to produce the vaccine, that the vaccine is no longer as effective?
If you have a systemic response from Direct, don't you just need to get the vaccine close enough to the lymph system for distribution throughout the body? Isn't the hope with Direct that the immune system will ultimately become able to recognize and destroy cancer cells in other areas of the body that haven't been injected?
Since we know that cancer cells are 100 times more likely to mutate than regular cells, why would a vaccine that is made from a tumor and cryopreserved still be an effective booster against something that may have mutated exponentially after the biopsy? Isn't this the main reason that nobody, not even NWBO, believes that L is a cure for GBM. Eventually, the cancer will mutate enough to once again be undetected by the immune system.
Wouldn't Direct (a new vaccine every time, targeting new variants) be a better booster?
Well, we don't know very much about the 9 mentioned in July do we?
So suppose all of 1 patients tumors shrink by 20% ... does this mean the patient has become 20% cured or 20% cancer-free? And thus still 80% diseased?
Uh..no
So then, if the tumors shrink by only 20%, but the DC vaccinations has caused tumor death in all of a patients tumors .... does this mean the patient is "cured"? (ie ... once a tumor dies, it does not come alive again?).
Pretty tall order to kill all of the patients tumors. Keep in mind that most of the evidence to date has been with regard to only the primary injected tumor. NWBO is hoping to see improved response (systemic) with multiple injections.
If all visible tumors have died, could there still be metastasized cancer lingering in the body?
Yes
It the tumors are dead, but only shrunk by say 20% in the onset, wouldn't they necessarily continue to shrink over time and eventually the body would be able to discard whatever remains of the dead tumor?
Flipper and others have posted some interesting theories on this topic.
The market is very familiar with cherry picking phase 1 results. Hence, no reaction to the "outstanding" results thus far .
You need to add Healthbank - tumor storage services to your list..
Hi Flipper,
In a prior post, you state that enrollment between March of 2011 and March of 2014 was likely about 6 patients per month. However, you assume that enrollment will be closer to 20 per month beginning January of 2015. What makes you think the speed of enrollment is suddenly going to triple? Please keep in mind that 2/3 of the current trial sites have been active and enrolling since August, 2012. Thanks for your insight.
"there might be a delay for the German centers to enroll for the reasons set forth by management, but when they do enroll, it will be very rapid."
And your basis for this assumption?
Any reason you can think of why they haven't been able to enroll approx. 6 people per site and complete the enrollment?
She did also say tens of thousands. Three Hundred and Thirty Three Ten Thousand also equals "tens of thousands."
Not even a little ridiculous to you? If not, I concede.
Maybe I should have said SWAG instead. ;)
Ok, instead of wild, let's call it her most optimistic prediction. How did such a brilliant leader miss the mark by millions?
I am opposed to wild and reckless speculation based on a small sample of a phase 1 trial. Losely tossing around the idea of a cure for all cancer types, like it is a forgone conclusion, doesn't honestly acknowledge the challenges that surely lie ahead.
Don't forget that you are respected and revered by many on this board. I don't like to see anything that casts a shadow on such credibility.
Thanks for the holiday wishes. I wish the same to you and yours.
You are correct, I am somewhat attached to this stock. Early on, I really hoped to see the company achieve even just a little of the sales potential I thought was possible. Sadly, it hasn't happened and each passing quarter tells the tale of something far different from the expectations relayed by management.
You are correct that every start-up faces bumps in the road, but my gosh, the wheels have nearly been banged off this buggy. I truly hope they can find a way to survive, but it isn't looking good.
I have a small sliver of hope left, mainly just because I find it rewarding to pull for the 'little guy' and also because there is something timeless and attractive about entrepreneurial spirit. Unfortunately, the demand for the products just doesn't seem to be there (although, I do enjoy them). Best wishes!
Oh, but LP's wildest estimates weren't good enough. Let's add another 3+ million patients. Truly, unbelievable!
Very irresponsible to insinuate a cure this early on with only limited data. I am very surprised and disappointed by this. I suppose that line of thinking is necessary for your 1.2 - 1.8 trillion estimates (which IMO is equally reckless at this juncture).
Some folks are quick to attack and accuse anyone that has concerns regarding NWBO. Your points are valid, please don't feel like you have to keep quiet.
My guess is that it will be a very controlled meeting without much opportunity for questions. But it is always worth a try.
Nice to know you will be in attendance. I'm not totally sure if it means they paid more than 1 year in past due bills with shares/warrants and the other half is still due in cash, or if they are now paid in full (payment made only in shares/warrants rather than the 50/50 cash/shares split).
It also looks like there are future incentive payments that are redacted from our view, the terms unknown.
Not sure. A lot of the details were filed under confidential treatment with the SEC. What's happening on Friday?
Why not include the shares and warrants listed for each section? You thought the wording was interesting but not the payment info?
It's only 5+ million shares and 2+ million warrants for "initiation" payments. 27.5 million dollars worth of atta boy, we love you, transfers to Cognate.
Hey Neil, can we get another 25,000,000, we kinda already spent it all..
Mrs. Kathryn, how did you ever get caught up in this mess? You seem much too refined for this kind of junk. I hope you didn't have much invested here.
Yes, I remember some of this info from your earlier posts on the matter. Your research and modeling predict very favorable results and if they would only confirm this, it would be difficult for anyone to paint a negative view on such a clear extension of OS. But they refuse to release the data and instead dangle it in front of us as a "maybe" down the road.
You are right, there has been a clear agenda to attack the company from every angle this year. I don't know who is behind it all, but it is obviously someone that wants to keep the price in check (it's a long list of possibilities).
Thanks for entertaining my questions. One last one that's been on my mind. Then I need to focus on work.
LP certainly knows how important and valuable the data regarding the breakdown of rapid progressors and (psPD) of the compassionate use arm is to investors.
Concrete data regarding this treatment arm would certainly allow us to know with more certainty what to expect from the phase III. Releasing this information (if it is positive) could boost the share price which would help to minimize the dilutive impact of equity financing, etc. I don't understand the need for secrecy. Any thoughts?
Well, at least we can agree on what these actions will mean in 2015. One question, is it feasible that with enough continued share dilution and warrant options to Cognate that they would be able to buy out the remaining ownership and take the company private?
This company is such a love/hate deal for me. I love the potential of the science, but hate what I see as continual false expectations and self-serving behavior of the company executives.
What, so I shouldn't start planning on how to spend all my $ when this reaches 1 trrriiilllliiioonn dollars ;)
Why don't you have your answer based on the actions of 2014? Cash financing hasn't been a problem, it has been available every time they needed it this year. And they decided to pay all cognate invoices with shares and warrants. So....?
And yet these could very well be "bad delays." Bad delay = inability to successfully negotiate payments terms that are acceptable to NWBO. Bad delay = PEI not granting approval on trial modification. We just don't know.
Delays that are consistent and frequent with regard to timelines set by company execs are usually not favorable in my book. It means they either don't know what they are doing (setting unrealistic expectations) or they are failing to execute.
Yeah. I'm losing faith and LP continues to confirm my doubts. I think in many ways she intentionally keeps the S/P suppressed with the lack of information. If it were to breakout, the shares in lieu arrangement would come under further scrutiny and it would be much harder to argue that it was really in the best interest of all concerned parties. She definitely wants to "go big or go home." And she is, I look for her piece of the pie to continue to grow during the next year, while ours will become smaller and smaller. The opportunity cost alone from this stock is enough to drive a man crazy (yes it's a short drive for some of us). GL
Wait for it...THE FIRST OF MANY NEW WONDERFUL BUYING OPPORTUNITIES! LOL
You say you don't care about short term movements (just like last time), but last time we dropped you tried to average down and several folks here called you on it. I guess as they say, same BS different day.
Once again, if the results are astounding and "curing" the majority of patients, why the need to mess with dosage, timing of injections, and going from single to multiple injections? Thanks!
Please re-read my prior predictions and then tell me again how wrong I am. Too easy!
Isn't it easy to wait until after LP confirms the delay to tell us that is what you expected all along. Ha!
Yesterday and today seem like a good time to sell a few of those higher cost shares, don't ya think? It's fine, you can wait a few days until after it drops and then tell us all about it.
The big investors non interest in NWBO is evident.
A couple of questions for you, flip. We still haven't been given any indication of the percentage of the phase 1 patients that are responding favorably (of course excluding ambiguous "many" comments). They have tossed us a couple of patient cases (and they do seem promising), but if we were anywhere close to the 80% animal results wouldn't they be anxious to tell the world about it? Good news would certainly increase the share price and help greatly with all of the funding they need next year, etc.
Second, if the current results were astounding, why the need to tweak the dosage and timing in phase II? My guess, a small percentage of the patients are seeing incredible results. A small enough percentage that there is concern that certain folks could spin things in a negative manner. What say you?
Didn't someone here recently predict our next update would simply tell us "in the coming months." Hmm...I wonder who said that?
Things are shaping up just as I expected. Should see low 4's by the end of 2014. Yippee ;)
It was clearly a hypothetical and unrealistic scenario in response to another post about how progress is evident based on market cap. I could give a crap about market cap. If the share price remains the same we all lose. For as smart as some folks are around here, they sure are slow when they want to be.