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Tim
My point: It is alot tougher for a stock to move when the float is say 40M shares vs 10M like it was a few years ago...
Dilution
This was my prediction in my 12/30 Re the outstanding shares and the continued dilution:
I now think the # will be 60M + - time will tell in 2 weeks
"Stock Printing Press
Stock the company's only real asset and their funding source until they become cash flow positive.
The days of low float and outstanding from a few years ago are no longer.
Stock Issuance and Outstanding Share #'s:
12/31/01 32,931,842
12/31/02 37,331,448 4.4M Increase
12/31/03 48,568,628 11.2M Increase
12/31/04(est) 58+M 10M Increase
Just the facts of life"
David
IT WASN'T ME! AND IF YOU NOTICE AFTER THE EMAIL WAS POSTED I EXPRESSED SURPRISE HE MENTIONED THE WORD IN IT. CROSS OFF #1 ON YOUR LIST!
David
For some reason someone "had to sell" today and when you sell off a large position with not much support in a thinly traded stock the price drops fast...the trader should have waited until a PR is issued. I guess they've been waiting awhile - lol
Bottom line this company needs revenue...
Take care
David
He said the company was going to announce a "paper profit" in the con call weeks ago due to the debt reduction not from operations. No surprise....
They need to be cash flow positive from operations then the corner will be turned IMO
Gooseman
All I said was the other Friends and Shareholder letters were on the website.
Kelly can do whatever he wants - I am sure it's legal...
It just seemed like a letter many CEO's wouldn't write.
Charlie
http://www.virtrasystems.com/pr_ceo_letters.cfm?refer=1
The letters are on the company website - oh this was a secret one to the people Kelly has their emails? What about the shareholders not on his email list...
This is a public company right?
Sheeesh
Paul
Kelly was just a little frazzled today - does he need a speechwriter???
The real question is can they become "cash flow positive" from operations...
Bankruptcy???
No one has mentioned bankruptcy on this board I am aware of - wow....I am surprised he included it in his quickly written email response.
These are personal opinions and comments as they say.
"I have a pretty good idea what's going on temporarily with the share price, and it has nothing to do with the company."
--------------------------------
I thought there were other potential revenue streams other than the govt budget?
"We have not lost out on any of the IVR deals that I've previously implied. Have they been delayed? Of course. I keep mentioning President Bush's supplemental war budget for a reason. The country's at war, requiring supplemental budgets to fund current military initiatives. There's a lot of money in the supplemental budget earmarked for military training, and we have every reason to believe that your patience will be rewarded."
We'll look for the filing in 2 weeks per "The Man"
Trout OT
This was a reply from you when I mentioned the visual a few weeks ago.
"Bylo...can we agree on nothing?
It's obviously a graphic of the treatment the Patriots will receive from the Eagles. :)"
How did that work out?
Pats - 3 of 4 Super Bowls... the D word - Dynasty.
Red Sox now lookin for 2 in row...
Be well
Trout
Hang in there man - I guess .33 was not the bottom...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5315473
".33 is bottom. .40s on the way again"
Your visual is very cool...
Qtr #'s by 2/28?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5369467
I guess others accepted and the free trading shares turned into 318K - Kelly explained the share price reduction on 2/8 to the leaseholders to the reason since?
The good news is Kelly said we should have the 12/31 #'s hopefully by 2/28 per Avocado/Andy.
"Kelly thinks its because of the debt transaction that placed 318K shares into hands that wanted to sell immediately. Doesn't really explain it though, 318K shares really isn't that much.
Kelly also said they are pushing for a 10K release before the end of the month. The auditors have the data, its only how long does it take them to complete the process."
Trout
Doesn't add up. Per Kelly's 12/13 PR there were only 215K free trading shares and the volume today so far is 800K which does not include other possible shares since 12/13 when the stock was at $.46. It is more than that...the other 4.5M shares do not expire until 12/13/05 (1 year)or 5/13/06 (18 mos).
"We were gratified that the overwhelming majority, 86%, of the electing debtholders expressed their confidence in the company's long-term future. Of 5.06 million shares to be issued, only 215,280 will be immediately free- trading, while over 4.5 million will be locked up for 12-18 months.
Fool
I am sure Kimberly is extremely competent. Kelly's background is purely legal not financial or marketing/sales. You would think the company would have more experience in the Finance area to better negotiate funding requirements/needs, and manage the balance sheet, costs, budgets, proforma income statements and daily operations.
L. Kelly Jones, age 51, had been chief executive officer and a director of GameCom since March of 1997. He currently sits as VirTra System's chief executive officer and chairman of the board of directors. Mr. Jones graduated from the University of Texas in 1978 with a juris doctorate degree, and from Stephen F. Austin State University in 1975 with a bachelor of arts degree. Mr. Jones founded the law firm Jones & Cannon, which provides legal services for VirTra Systems. In July of 1980. Mr. Jones was certified in the area of commercial real estate law by the Texas Board of Legal Specialization in 1984, and was re-certified in 1989, 1994, and 1999. Mr. Jones' areas of practice include corporate, construction, real estate, municipal law, and commercial litigation. Mr. Jones, who is licensed to practice law in the states of Texas and Colorado, served from 1985 through 1989 on the Arlington City Council, and also served on the Stephen F. Austin State University Board of Regents from 1987 through 1993, where he was chairman from 1991 through 1993.
Just a thought...
Fool
What do think Kelly is going to tell you? It WILL ALWAYS be positive he has the biggest vested interest.
Is he a full time CEO for VTSI or does he still spend time with Jones, Cannon - don't they share space in the same facility?
I was kind of surprised to see the Treasurer is a shared position at Jones and Cannon? From the company website:
Kimberly Biggs, secretary-treasurer
Kimberly Biggs, age 37, is secretary and treasurer of VirTra Systems. Ms. Biggs graduated from Martin High School in Arlington, Texas in 1984. In 1989, she joined the Arlington law firm of Jones & Cannon, which provides legal services for VirTra Systems, as legal administrator, A POSITION WHICH SHE HOLDS TO THIS DATE. As legal administrator for the firm, Ms. Biggs oversees all aspects of the firm's business operations, with particular emphasis upon the firm's accounting, billing, and payables. [/B]
Take care
Ron
Good luck! I hope those minnows grow to a marlin, a tuna or even a whale.
I just remember the movie with Spencer Tracey - The old man and the Sea...great classic.
All
No news plus the SEC filing this quarter is audited. There has been a seller or sellers for the last 6 weeks. So much for the bottom being the low 30's being the low point - was that Greg that confirmed that? Bad news does stay unknown just like when a pending large contract is in the works
Don't be blind because the small investor is the last to know.
Where's Evan with that boat and others to support the price?
Another buying opportunity to average down!
When was this quote?
"The wheels of government turn slowly. However, our concerted efforts to market and tout our breakthrough technology to the government has been garnering increased domestic attention, and the past 30 days have seen requests for information on our simulators from as far away as the United Arab Emirates and Chile"
Did a quick look at the "Letters from Ceo" and clicked on one -you know the ones Kelly has with each release stating "I've never been more excited about the prospects of my company"
This quote was from 7/15/03 - the more things change the more they stay the same it seems
Take care
Greg
The $64,000 ?
Then why no PO's????
Greg - Market Size
You can take information from research reports (below) to attempt to show the potential market size - $43B in 2003 and $73B by 2008. These #'s probably contain 1000's of products in this industry.
The real question in my opinion is what is the market for the 1 or 2 products VTSI has. Then of that market size what % will VTSI obtain based on various "what if" scenarios and the sales pipeline and % of closing the deal.
Just a thought
"The report states that the Viz/Sim industry is financially strong, valued in 2003 at nearly $43B, representing a healthy annual growth rate of 9.8%. Strong growth is predicted in most areas of the industry, continuing for the next several years, with a projected market value of almost $78B by 2008."
Take care
Paris - Editoral Comment
Why would there be a military expo in Paris? The French do not believe in fighting - they just like payoffs like they got from Saddam and Iraq...
Experience
Maybe it's me but I would feel better with someone with proven successful experience was at the helm vs someone who has changed business plans brewery, games, amusement parks to the training the warriors and police who protect our country competing with the Lockheed Martin's of the world - as you state trial and error. Many execs leave successful companies learn the ropes - have an idea then make it on their own...
VTSI with shallow pockets and one or two products in their product line without the infrastructure of the Lockheed Martin's and others, etc etc etc.
Lawyers are good to protect companies and make sure sales does not overstep their bounds, write contracts, defend lawsuits, employee actions, etc. Haven't seen too many CEO's...do others have examples???
Time will tell but Q1 is half over and it sure is quiet....the product not only needs to be top notch but marketing and sales needs to be better for a small company IMO
Greg
What was the nature of his surgery? Is he back on the job? If not when is he expected to return?
Evansup
Time to throw the net in the water to support this baby? As chief Brody said in Jaws - "I think we are going to need a bigger boat"
Paul
And there was a real seller behind the "market maker" sales....
David
My experience tells me there are either buys or sells - the M (MMs changing the bid or ask?) is not a true description of a transaction. If a market maker wants to change the bid or ask they just raise or lower it based on the buy or sell pressure -no transaction needed. Kind of like a bookie changing a line on a game to get action on both sides.
By the way - how about them Patriots!!!! Three out of four Super Bowls...
Andy
It's simple economics of supply and demand. You may think there was a sale of 500 shares and a purchase of 10,000 and the price still drops but....if you check the buys and sales since the debt reduction announce on 12/13 there have been many more sells than buys since it was $.46 ago 60 days ago to cause the 30% drop.
Plus no real news to speak of...
Andy
Why would someone sell so they could buy more?
Avocado - Interesting
This was from the 12/13 PR of the Debt Reduction.
The company reasonably expects acceptance from holders of another eight percent, which, if received, would result in a 91% acceptance for a total reduction of $7.2 million, or 71%, of the company's debt. Further, the company is still attempting to locate another four percent of its debtholders.
"The proposal offered more shares if the debtholders agreed to contractually 'lock up' their shares for as long as 18 months, thus protecting our current shareholders," commented L. Kelly Jones, VirTra Systems' chief executive officer.
"We were gratified that the overwhelming majority, 86%, of the electing debtholders expressed their confidence in the company's long-term future. Of 5.06 million shares to be issued, only 215,280 will be immediately free- trading, while over 4.5 million will be locked up for 12-18 months.
The 12/13 PR says $215K of the 5.1M were to be free trading - looks like the people who signed up as the additional 8% opted for the free trading route. This is not alot of shares to chew through in 2 mos IMO as you stated as well
If this is the case what will happen when the other 5M become free trading?
Is this Dutchess selling off some of their position to attempt get some of their $ back and reduce their position?
Plus no news to speak of...awful quiet - too quiet to coin a phrase.
Excuses so far ----
Naked shorting
Govt on holiday
Troops not available to train
Key mgmt sick - Jerry get well soon
Previous disgruntled directors selling
BB market sucks - this one is true
It's the market makers but they are running out of inventory
others to add soon
Make more Kool aid!!!! Sorry couldn't resist...
Looking forward to the filing by 2/28
5Cap
Some of you need to get real - you think everytime something umcomplimentary is said about Virtra the answer is to run to Kelly and get reassurance.
Kelly's role is to spin and promote his company in every way he can. The facts speak for themselves the SEC filings, PR's and of course the stock price.
Lately sell pressure from a short recent high in the mid $.40's to now the low $.30's.
Time will tell
Trout OT
What can I tell ya - I am a New Englander to the core all my life - live in RI with 3 ft of snow still in my yard - sports fanatic.
We've been on quite a run - Red Sox break through - we come back and beat The Evil Empire down 0-3 then sweep the Cards in the World Series.
Pats in the Super Bowl 3 of the last 4 years - it's destiny!!!!
Be well
Trout OT
Cool visual - like what the Patriots will do to the Eagles...
Doug
Bad move - never ever mix $$$ with relatives. It's a no win situation - you'll see - lol and good luck
Twister
Who made you boss man? It's his $$$ - this forum is supposed to be a discussion of opinions (I thought) not like an elementary school and you are the bully...
26 Days to go
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5177949
"March 1st is the day I get disappointed. I still feel very confident that we'll get something big before then."
Twister
Smart strategy - drive away current shareholders and have more selling pressure in addition to the shares issued to the leaseheolders and let's not forget Dutchess...
If you are so confident load up the boat some more!!!! It's a buying opportunity!
Sir
As I got dissed - I made the observation the Govt makes most of their awards to solid companies with high revenue, proven track record and assurance they will be around long term - ie Lockheed Martin. FATS is partnered with Lockheed Martin. Greg and someone else thought it was better for VTSI a small 11 employee company (as of 3/11/04) to bid direct. As the old saying goes no one got fired for awarding to IBM - my guess is you can insert Lockheed Martin in that statement as well.
The $80B budget to be submitted 2/7 - yeah and then the congress talks about it for months and months and cuts and debates it. When is the implementation date? No meat there...
Vulnerable to say the least - especially with key employees ill. "Today our attention, thoughts, prayers, and best wishes are with Jerry Long, our director of training, who underwent surgery earlier today. Fortunately, early post-surgery reports are very encouraging for Jerry's full and complete recovery."
We all wish Jerry well and a speedy recovery. With a very small startup people need to wear many hats. Kelly time to get on the road and make some sales calls?
Jerry Long, age 56, serves as our national sales director for training/simulation. Mr. Long is a Viet Nam veteran, serving as a gunners mate on river patrol boats in the Mekong Delta. After four years in the U.S. Navy, he left the service and became a police officer in Virginia. Over the course of ten years he performed numerous roles, including investigator, forensic technician, K-9 officer, SWAT team member, firearms instructor, patrol sergeant, and police academy instructor. In 1980, he returned to the military (U.S. Army), and retired in 1996 as a senior counterintelligence agent. After his retirement, prior to joining our company, he obtained an NASD general securities (series 7) and Texas insurance licenses, and was a co-owner of SRS, LLC, and Advance Technology Marketing, LLC, both of Houston, Texas. He holds a degree in Criminal Justice from Lord Fairfax Community College in Middle Town, Virginia, and has completed numerous military and law enforcement courses, including advanced counterintelligence, counterinsurgency, hostage situations and negotiations, advanced law enforcement rapid response team training, and foreign weapons training
Excuses?
I was always told excuses are the weak and unprepared for the task at hand - Kelly sure seems to be coming up with a new excuse every month for nonperformance....
KS
Felix posted the LM PR with the FATS link not me....
Going your OWN direction? Alone?
Sounds like a good strategy....
Greg/Bull
As usual you are missing the point. The PR does not provide the revenue breakout to FATS but from the PR from Lockeed Martin (one of the Top 5 defense contractors in the US IMO).
The partnership is providing recurring revenue for FATS (note the reference to an award in 2004) and when Lockheed Martin responds to RFP'S and they cannot provide all the services they integrate and partner with FATS and others. It is always good to be linked in the PR with LM NYSE - it brings instant credibility
Do you think this it is a better approach to partner with a $32B company than try to bid alone as a $1M startup? Who do you think has a better chance of winning the RFP?
ORLANDO, Fla., Jan. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Marine Corps Reservists deploying to Iraq will train to recognize and respond to ambushes and roadside improvised explosive devices using the Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT - News) Virtual Combat Convoy Trainer. Lockheed Martin will deliver a suite of four trainers to Camp Lejeune, NC in April.
"Training as you fight helps save lives," said Col. Walt Augustin, program manager for training systems, Marine Corps Systems Command. "Short of live fire training, the VCCT is the most realistic system we have to indoctrinate Marines in the hazards of convoy operations. This training will further enhance our Marines' ability to safely and effectively accomplish their mission in Iraq."
Lockheed Martin received a $9.6 million contract from the U.S. Army in June 2004 for eight convoy trainers. To date, more than 4,000 soldiers have been trained. The Marines' VCCTs, produced under a $5.1 million contract, will be modified to match the High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (Humvee) being driven by Marines.
"We're giving troops exposure to life-or-death decisions in a simulation environment," said Chuck Woodman, VCCT program manager. "VCCT lets troops identify, engage, and destroy the enemy 'on-the-move' in an ambush scenario, while reinforcing the skills they need for successful convoy operations."
Each of the VCCTs being used by the Marines will occupy a 53-foot, self- contained, deployable commercial trailer. Using a full-scale Humvee and simulation system that replicate scenarios troops might encounter, it will enable combat crews to communicate, maintain situational awareness and acquire targets while moving at highway speeds operating in a convoy environment.
Lockheed Martin WILL AGAIN TEAM with Firearms Training Systems (FATS), Inc. of Suwanee, GA, to provide firearms that make the VCCT a comprehensive training device incorporating realistic weapons engagement training and networked vehicle simulators to reinforce crew awareness and communications.
Lockheed Martin developed the VCCT by integrating its Close Combat Tactical Trainer (CCTT) with the FATS small arms, precision weapons training system to bring realistic convoy training to the troops. Vehicle simulation for the VCCT is derived from software developed for both CCTT and the United Kingdom's Combined Arms Tactical Trainer (UK CATT).