Z--

$USD.
Lookin' like the launch of Wave 3 is underway.(Wave 2= A-B-C). Hard to believe but we are off and runnin'.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USD,uu[h,a]daclynay[pb30!f][iut]&pref=G

--P

re:BTK: amgn 71-72


Q--
Are the Koreans going to steal a larger piece of the pie in the next twenty years while we we attempt to fend off Papa Panda Bear?
--P

"Slowly I turn..... step by step.....inch by inch"
--------------------------------------------------
B--

This is only effective for stalking Snook and Tarpon.<G>
For Goldfish the glare off the water often blinds people.

I know your boat carries a COT flare gun!

--P

Basser--

Forget Gold. Put your money in old Bagley lures. You know you wanna. The wife will understand. <G>

Regards
--P

Hi Z--

Back from a Summer of fishing in the Northeast. I am still trying to figure out how the school buses in your rural country areas will absorb the prices at the pump.<ng>

Question:

Do you think the Street has discounted A.G.'s "retirement"? Will this be the catalyst for a stiff late October/November decline before the perfunctory December run?

I found 'perfunctory' in the 12th Z edition of Webster's <g>

<Dow up 20% over the next 6-months or LESS.>
----------------------------------------

I always worry when I see the word less.

Is "less more" or
Is "less poor." --Willie the Shake

Cats arch their backs when they are threatened and their fur goes up to make themselves appear larger to their adversaries. But it's still the same old damn emaciated cat!!
It's called a B-wave in Elliott Wave parlance.

There are a number of sites now devoted solely to the impending demise of the U.S. economy. Be that as it may I will not buy into it until I see either a GOOG or GS hit. While the shorting remains unabatted, the market will do what it does best----it will frustrate both sides.

Put me down for an SP500 at 1287 +/-3%

Regards.

Now you understand why voice recognition/activation will be a necessity not a choice.
Avogadro's number is the final destination point.

I thought the following dates and times would be of interest to you being that you were certain the government was totally remiss in its initial handling of the hurricane.

august 27

5am .....Katrina 435 miles from land grows to Category 3
11am.....New Orleans mayor DECLINES to order evacuation

august 28

2am..... Katrina 310 miles from land grows to Category 4
10:30am. The mayor orders evacuation AFTER call from President Bush

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is the same mayor who said the Federal government was slow in their response. I realize Tavis Smiley will be there to smear Bush but the dates and times are of interest. Please note first the mayor's refusal and the date, and then his response the following day at 10:30 a.m.(Why didn't the mayor declare an evacuation at 5:30 a.m?)
Hey, breakfast first.

P.S. And, no, I did not vote for Bush.


"It was simply a sin of omission, Peter."
--George Smiley ... Tinker ,Tailor, Soldier, Spy.

fido= fidelity

how many shorts has goog buried?

See, in New Jersey there is actually some of the best fishing holes you wouldnt believe- problem is, they are all reservoirs and private lakes but well worth the $200 fine when I get caught..
-------------------------------------------------------------
I am still amazed by the size of the large mouth bass in all of those small "dead" lakes.
The N.Y. State record now is considerably larger than what's officially recorded and it was released for another generation to catch and admire.<g>

Are the tickets to this show refundable?<vbg>

A 2/3 retracement would be more in order although those that are compelled to short will be the fuel for the next fib rise.
Higher highs and no thai sticks in sight. Cough!!

W--

Can you really describe our old physical neighborhood to someone who wasn't raised there? Why assume that a reader half your age has a frame of reference for the deflationary economic environment of your childhood? You are asking people to "ponder" the unexpected and unimaginable. Good luck with this.

O.T.--

An interesting view of "jus' down the street" from R.R.'s abode.<vbg>

http://piggington.com/

Regards
--P

Big vol on DECK today, Z. Not exactly a stealth rise.

Then we start all over again.
-------------------------------------------------------
One group is picking tops and the other group is picking their pockets.

Of more importance, how has the fishing been for you and what has been your primary target?
-------------------------------------------------------------

Flamingo, but, only Tuesday-Thursday. Quiet part of the week. Snook when and if they're agreeable. <g>
Bombers and Bagleys only. Above Shark river and it's still pristine.

Biscayne Bay flats. Middle of the week. Bones if lucky and barracuda hanging around the shallow blue sink "holes" when all else fails.

Trying to avoid the "I remember when..." syndrome but it's getting harder to do.

From same article:

In response to widespread complaints, Nevada — the fastest growing state in the country — signed into law last month a cap on property taxes, limiting growth to 3 percent a year on all single-family, owner-occupied primary residences, with a higher cap of 8 percent for commercial property and second homes.
------------------------------------------------------------
My taxes are capped at a 3% increase for each year. Aren't yours?
If I sell my house the new buyer's taxes dramatically increases because the assessed value changes to reflect the new purchase price. This small detail is surprising new home buyers. As long as I stay in my house the taxes can only be increased 3% a year.
The article implies that the owner has been in the same house for fifteen years. Perhaps the taxes were NOT capped for the past fourteen years?

People are facing being taxed out of their homes," said Ted Harris, a 69-year-old retiree living on the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe, whose taxes climbed from $2,200 in 1990 to $12,000 last year.
------------------------------------------------------------

I am curious to know how he ended up with $12,000 taxes. At 8%/year I get almost $7000 after fifteen years. Where did the $12K come from. (Even if this was his second home = 8%/year)

With prices rising, the next overlooked question is what happens to home insurance replacement costs? How many monthly tax+insurance payments now have become a mortagage payment unto itself?

Dan--OT The Daiichi bleeding bait hooks look like gamakatsu hooks painted red? I just looked at the 2/0 hook.

Summer has arrived.

Regards.

The effect of the current surge in oil prices, though noticeable, is likely to prove less consequential to economic growth and inflation than in the 1970s.--Alan the G
------------------------------------------------------------
There's no question that Mr.G has a remarkable command of the language for positive spin. His understanding and choice of word nuance is masterful, so the word "surge" was a surprise. With little exception, it usually carries with it a negative connotation.

How about if we reworked the first two lines to read:

The effect of the current surge in China's manufacturing sector, though noticeable, is likely to prove less consequential to our economic well-being than currently anticipated. <g>

Joined you. Deck $22

Did 50% retracement of last rise. Like its multiyear TA.

Why do I think getting the information for the currency conversions will be easier than getting the money.<NG>

[our] massive debt amounts to a massive synthetic short position against the ...
-----------------------------------------------------------

Great observation.
You are dangerous!!<gg>

Z--

Perhaps you have seen this already . If not it's a start. You'll need to do the Euro conversion. The Bretton Woods agreement creates a mess for you as you'll soon see. There is quite a spread between 1942 and 1946.

http://www.insee.fr/en/indicateur/achatfranc.htm


Look for first chart in middle of article below for Belgian franc:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/tlaga121100.html

--P

You earned your $$$ in CUNO. I missed it all since I was preoccupied with moving two elders from point "A" to point "B" and then back to point "A". Dorothy was right: "There's no place like home" for those bearing down on 100 years of age.

So Z, it looks like we may have something more coming at us in the next few years than just a mild recession. GM has enough money and arrogance to stretch the rope to the vanishing point.

And...

do you think "a bull in a China shop" will take on a new meaning? Within a year that may be the headline you will be seeing. A double entendre?



Lost in the Southern Lands of Condo-Mania,
Porter

Z-

"... when the Summation Index fails to fall below a reading of +1000 at any time during the course of a Bottom Formation, the ensuing rally is likely to abort. Instead of lasting 3-10 weeks, it is likely to last only a few days to a week or so at most."- K.G.

I'm surprised no rally as yet with the OddlotSS at an obscene level again.
Where are those "buckers"?

--P

Hi Lee,

Whatchya make of the market? Maybe I need a new set of glasses?

How 'bout a car campaign that says: "Is it time to buy a new F F?"
We leave it all in initials. Everyone will be able to read it the way they want.):)

-P

Chinese investors out there have huge money...
---------------------------------------------------

Thanks. That answers my question.
When I was in graduate school in Hawaii the Japanese were doing the same thing.

You gotta come back in the P.M. and share with me how "you" plan to make money on a 1/1 that is not on the water with an unobstructed view of the bay or ocean, has 860 square feet, and is selling for more than $500/square foot. I just want to see how you crunch the numbers on this one.
Educate me.

tlc--

In all liklihood, McLuhan, in some of his word usage, was paying homage to James Joyce.
McLuhan was a Joyce scholar.

--P

In 2002 it was -1164.

I would look here for a cross-over then another down move and then the real cross-over. We are talking about a 2 1/2 - 3 month time frame. That's been the pattern, twice in the past, for a bottom to be put in place.

Z--

I gotta ask:
Did you ever type in IVII instead of IIVI?<g>

--P

-900
------------------------------------------
It will take more than that, IMO, for a solid intermediate bottom to be put in place. Put me down for -1200. We need an extreme reading here. NASI

He later said "the medium is the massage." His works were stunning in their insight. When he said that reading books, starting with the Gutenberg bible, gave birth to private internal spaces I was hooked. He also predicted light would be the medium and it would also hold the message for all future information. This foresaw computer technology, no? He really was a visionary, Lee.
(The sixties also gave us the works of Edward Hall and Robert Ardrey. Enough there to really admire the scope of human intellect.)

...a home ...that is overpriced for what it is.
----------------------------------------------------------

Okay, let's talk about the other 5%. <g>

The gentleman who four decades ago coined the phrase "the medium is the message" observed that the fish doesn't know he's in an aquarium of water until taken out of it. Likewise, one could argue that many of today's buyers are NOT aware of the bubble environment they have willingly created for themselves until they are forcefully removed from it. That was the point I was attempting to make. Yes, we are in a bubble but it's our generation in large measure who had the money to speculate, flip and "finance." A rather dangerous group of people who merely switched their asset allocations with the added blessing and consent of the Federal Reserve.

What's of interest to me is how few of these people understand that taxes you pay for life and house insurance for as long as you have a mortgage. If people wanted to work longer they now will by necessity and not by choice!!!

Candidly I would like to see a severe real estate "correction." That may not happen for years, but, never say never with the bureaucratic machinations that are now being spun through, over and around our economy.

Cheers.

The last refuge of a scoundrel is appeal to authority.
------------------------------------------------------

I was kinda hopin' you were gonna write "appeal to a higher authority" and antagonize a larger audience but heck your opener will have to do. <g>
Of course realtors now are seeking to justify and perhaps even vindicate their stance since it's gettin' jus' a wee bit dicey in certain corners of the globe. (Forgive me but my globe has corners.)
The scarcity issue is an interesting one. There are give or take fourteen hundred waterfront homes connecting to the ocean in my South Florida neighborhood. Regardless of interest rates the supply/demand curve has dictated their asking price for three decades. Lower interest rates merely threw fuel on the fire. (No one here has mentioned that homes over two million dollars are NOT financed in South Florida. It's cash out. My point is that these homes have been and still are being purchased INDEPENDENT of where interest rates are!!!)
Of course one's stance is dictated in large measure by one's reality(experience.) If I purchased my house for $35,000 and it's now $350,000 we are in a bubble. To a new younger buyer, however, there is no bubble because his reality started at $350,000. I always like to ask people how old they are when they make observations about real estate or the economy in general. (My 96 year old father told me in the Great Depression EVERYTHING took a hit. So much for Gold.)

In five years, will there be a "reversion to the mean" or a "REVULSION to the MEAN?" <g>

Off to smoke my pipe. It's callin' me.

Regards.

The DOW has gone to a higher high and a higher low for the past six days in a row.
Does this mean that Alan Greenspan will now rest on the seventh day?

According to reports, the primary cause for the plunge in this week's [Chinese] stock market was the issuance of an additional 2 billion shares of the Shanghai Boashan Steels, at RMB$5.12 per share.
-------------------------------------------------------

One Third of a Light Year ?

Z,

How many mailings have to be made to acknowledge this issuance to new purchasers? (Let us suppose that the average purchase was 500 shares.) Does this give new meaning to the phrase "it's in the mail" and you should be receiving it before ...?
Will the above paragragh now appear in all future civil service math exams?
What's the float for Shanghai Boashan Steels?

--P

The other 43% feel left out.<g>

"Bush administration officials cautioned satellites could not divine the intentions of Kim Jong II"
------------------------------------------------------------
Divine? <g>

Lee,

How u doin' divining the intentions of the MMs?

-P