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Oil to hit bottom by end of first quarter
Fred Imbert
Monday, 5 Jan 2015 | 11:54 AM ET
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102309871#.
How low can oil go?
by Chris Matthews JANUARY 5, 2015, 3:57 PM EST
http://fortune.com/2015/01/05/oil-price-drops/
LOL Yep, that's the name of the game;)
UWTI chart looks painful,
there was hardly any bounce since October.
Even if oil price stays the same for weeks or months the stock price will decay over time.
This stock will likely R/S very soon IMO.
You can do day trade and probably not good idea to hold more than 2 days.
What if there is no bounce? Seriously?? How long have you been following the markets??? Do you think this is the first time oil prices have crashed????
Rinse and repeat, play accordingly!
FWIW I am not telling anyone to buy this right now. It's always difficult and risky trying to catch a bottom and probably best to wait for a better bottom confirmation and buy signal before making an entry. I was only suggesting that this is where you want to put your money if/when oil prices stabilize and move back up.
Buy When There's Blood in the Streets”
JMHO
UWTI- The #1 play to be trading when oil finds a bottom and begins to move back up.
Just like JNUG is the #1 play when gold/miners head north and TVIX is the #1 play when fear hits and markets head south.
Weekly chart suggesting that perhaps this is becoming a tad oversold!lol
When this one is ready to bounce it could be HUGE!!
At least a double up;)
All JMHO
What a "roller coaster" ride indeed!! yeah it's awesome for day traders and flippers who are skilled or lucky enough to correctly time these crazy swings.
Today I was neither, greed & fear got the best of me:(
Tomorrow is another day!
Yeah buying is easy and knowing when to sell is the hard part. It really all comes down to your investment strategies and goals. The goal is to buy low and sell high, but everyone wants to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest prices possible. Now that's just our greed talking!lol
Always focus on your entries at key support levels and your exits at key resistance levels. Watch for double bottoms or double tops as well when buying or selling. There are plenty of chart indicators like full STO, MACD, RSI ,CCI, that give us more indication of when is a good time to be buying or selling. Trading volume has always been the most telling signs that so many people seem to ignore nowadays. FOLLOW THE MONEY!!
again, it all depends on your strategy and what type of investor/trader you are and each trade is different, long term investment, swing trade, gap play, momentum play, bounce play, day trade, well you get the point!
Don't focus on perfectly timing your entries and exits. Just find a good strategy that fits your investment goals and stick by it always. As long as it's working for you then don't try to fix something that isn't broken...
discipline and patience is the hardest thing for any trader to master.
I battle with it every day.lol
happy trading & good luck!
Hahaha tell me about it bro!;)
UWTI- Decided to move my TVIX profits into UWTI . I took a starter EOD @ 3.37. I think we could see a small bounce with oil prices as early as tomorrow or the next day.
I still think oil prices could reach $35-$40 sometime this year for a bottom but not without some little bounces along the way...
Only playing it right now for a quick flip. Those two huge red volume bars are good indication that lower levels are likely on the horizon, but first give us a decent bounce;)
All JMHO
Order Details
Account: TD Direct Investing
Action: Buy
Quantity: 1000
Symbol: UWTI - VELOCITYSH 3X LNG CRD ETN
Market: US - U.S.
Price: $3.37
Order expires end of: 06-Jan-2015
Special Instructions: There are no special instructions
Reference Number: JM*0634
Status: Filled
Order Date: 06-Jan-2015
Time: 3:59:10 PM EST
Filled Order Details
Filled Quantity @ Price Fill Time Fill Date
1000 $3.37 3:59:00 PM EST 06-Jan-2015
TVIX Well I'm all out of it now(3.30 & 3.20) as I got stopped out for a 2nd time today:(
Hard to hold through the swings, very volatile trading! I probably should have bought some back between 3.00-3.10 range but hesitated on pulling the trigger.
ANV- Closed above $1. lets hope it's on the way to filling the gap
LOL I can assure you I don't have all the answers but I'll always try to find them.
Cheers!
ANV- $1.00 break coming... it would be nice to see it close back in dollarland today;)
Thanks man! deep red days in the markets have been hard to come by so I'll take them any chance I can get;)
Pissed I sold JNUG way too early @ $23 from my 18.90 entry a couple weeks ago. I knew this was going to run big when ready but flaked out of it too early, oh well!
JNUG up 100% now from double bottom lows. Crazy thing is look how ridiculously oversold it still is on the weekly chart.
I wouldn't bet on down market.
I would bet a spike down open, then a green close for the day though...
ANV- Just nibbled @ .98 and holding for potential gap fill, target 1.25-1.30
I like ANV for gap fill play, but I'm not sure if that will happen this week. If gold/miners remain hot then it has a good chance but hard to say if it will occur in the next few days???
It has the momentum at the moment and it is trading above the 20dma so I wouldn't be surprised to see a run to test the 50dma next and fill gap in the near future...
JMHO
TVIX- Damn I got stopped out on half my shares @ 3.30
I have to protect my gains with trailing stops. With TVIX .20+ dips from highs are too much for me to hold through...
Oh well, I'm Still holding some for original target
As the price of oil continues to plummet I'm watching many of my favourite Oil/Gas Stocks like a hawk. Several of them are back testing recent lows and I'm watching them closely for potential double bottoms on some of them...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=108917048
SDRL-NADL-BTE- just to name a few. Also UWTI could see a very nice bounce when oil prices stabilize and find a bottom.
Way oversold!! IMO
Stocks should fall further. Here's why.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/06/investing/stocks-market-oil-price-correction/index.html
Monday's 331-point drop in the Dow was ugly. And the Dow was down nearly 200 points in midday trading Tuesday.
But let's put this in perspective: The Dow and S&P 500 are about 4% below their all-time highs from just a few weeks ago. So we are not even halfway to what's known as a correction, a 10% pullback from a recent peak.
And guess what? We need a correction. Badly.
They are healthy and occur often in normal bull markets, but we haven't had one since the summer of 2011.
market correction
We've come close a couple of times. Stocks were hit hard in late September and early October of last year and then again in the beginning of December.
But the market wound up going on a ferocious Santa Claus rally in the last few weeks of 2014 to finish near their record highs.
Oil sinks further below $50
"It's been like waiting for Godot. We've been waiting for a correction for a long time. But it seems like every time stocks fall 5% or 6%, things turn around on a dime," said Paul Nolte, a portfolio manager with Kingsview Asset Management.
That could wind up happening again. But here's why a bigger slump in stocks may (and should) be in the cards.
The crude awakening. Oil's slide from $107 a barrel to below $50 has been one of the main reasons for the market volatility. Until oil prices stabilize, it makes sense for investors to be nervous about stocks.
Sure, lower oil prices are good news for consumers (and retail and airline stocks) but it's also a reflection of weakening demand on a global scale.
Cheap oil is killing my job
It doesn't matter that the U.S. is still in decent shape economically. Corporate profits will likely suffer if Europe, China and other key markets are struggling.
Prices are stretched. Nolte said that his biggest concern about the market is that stocks are no longer cheap.
The S&P 500 is trading at more than 16 times 2015 earnings forecasts. That seems a little rich when you consider that earnings are expected to increase by less than 8% this year
"Valuations are a little high. The sledding is going to get tougher over the next few years," Nolte said.
Worried about stocks? Bonds look worse
Last one in, first one out? Only a month ago, CNNMoney's Fear & Greed Index was showing signs of Greed.
But the index, which tracks the key volatility gauge known as the VIX (VIX) and six other indicators of investor sentiment, is now in Extreme Fear territory. This shows how emotional the average investor can be.
What's more, research firm TrimTabs reported Tuesday that investors put $45.4 billion into stock market exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, in December. That was a monthly record.
"The buying frenzy suggests the U.S. stock market will keep stumbling into the New Year. ETF investors tend to buy high and sell low," said David Santschi, CEO of TrimTabs in the report. He added that "the bullish camp has become extremely crowded."
Risk on. Risk off. Another sign that investors may be temporarily falling out of love with stocks? Look at the bond market.
The yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury has tumbled below 2%. Yields fall when investors are buying bonds.
Yields should not be this low. The U.S. economy, after all, is in much better shape than the rest of the world. 2014 was the best year for the job market since 1999.
The Federal Reserve has also strongly suggested that it will begin to raise interest rates later this year. Yields usually go up when the market expects the Fed to hike rates.
3 reasons the euro is plunging
But investors are still buying bonds because the U.S. economy continues to be viewed as relatively stable, a so-called safe haven for cash.
If you're nervous about the market but have to put money somewhere, Treasuries look less risky than stocks, foreign bonds and commodities.
It's not time to panic. The good news is that if all these fear factors lead to a 10% drop in the market, that may scare off some of the speculators and make stocks more attractive again for long-term investors.
There are already plenty of decent values among blue chip companies. Several stocks may have been unfairly punished.
I ran a quick stock screen to find companies in the S&P 500 that are more than 10% below their 52-week highs but are also reasonably valued, have low levels of debt and solid earnings growth prospects.
The companies on the list range from industry giants Apple (AAPL, Tech30), GM (GM) and Gilead Sciences (GILD) to beaten up consumer stocks Fossil (FOSL), Michael Kors (KORS) and GameStop (GME).
Even some energy stocks made the list, such as Valero (VLO), natural gas firm Southwestern (SWN) and oil services firm Cameron (CAM).
"There are some good buying opportunities right now. We are using cash to find bargains," said Tom Stringfellow, chief investment officer with Frost Investment Advisors. "But we are looking mostly at larger, more well-known conservative companies"
TVIX +12% I'm holding for 50dma around 3.60 to 3.75 range is my selling target...
Almost there now, cheers!
JNUG +16% and now up 100% from double bottom levels.
Crazy thing is look how grossly oversold it still is on the weekly chart.
TVIX HOD @ 3.32 +8%
Still holding shares from 2.58 & 2.32 entries
Bring on the 200dma next;)
TVIX HOD @ 3.32 +8%
Still holding shares from 2.58 & 2.32 entries
Bring on the 200dma next;)
Markets are in full chopfest mode. Probably wise to wait on the sidelines until things calm down a little...
CHOP- I haven't been very lucky with China or Earnings plays as of late:(
CHOP- WOW What a terrible Earnings report: http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=64998444
Putting this POS on the back burner for now. I don't see anything positive coming out of it for awhile. I will continue to focus on swing trading/flipping my favourite ETF's in the meantime. This is where I have been most successful;)
Gold/mining and Bio/Pharma stocks have been hot lately. It's almost getting time to play some of our favourite oil/gas stocks for a much needed bounce, probably a dead cat bounce tho.lol
Have a good day!
EDIT- look at what CALI is doing lately... Looks like I picked the wrong one to play:( the machines are attacking CALI.lol
Yes that's a nice list of gold/mining stocks... lots of good plays in there.IMO
regret selling my JNUG 18.90 entry at $23, looks like it's headed to 50dma
Gold/mining hot right now!
CHOP will host a conference call to discuss its unaudited financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2014 at 8:00 A.M. EDT on Tuesday, January 06, 2015.
The Company plans to issue its third quarter unaudited financial results on Tuesday, January 6, 2015 prior to the conference call.
Yes sir I'll take that for now.lol
Nice $INDU daily fib chart;)
Cheers!
I respectfully disagree. Markets only beginning to pullback here and $INDU closed below the 50dma. Plenty of room to dip lower according to the chart. With oil prices continuing to drop sharply I think we will see a big sell off week on the markets, possibly testing the 200dma and recent lows at 17K for a double bottom before we see any "big up day"...JMHO
Nice one carp;)
buy the dips and sell the rips is what it's all about. Especially with POS TVIX.lol
Congrats!
Nice trade Donis, congrats!
I'm still holding for now. Let's see what tomorrow brings;)